The 3 Lefties

[CartiHalos]

With Yamamoto off the board, I think we'll see the starting pitching market pick up quickly.  The Angels look poised to be right in the mix of things, with their eyes presumably set on one of the top 3 free agent starting pitchers - Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Shota Imanaga - whom I have lovingly dubbed The 3 Lefties.  The gap between these 3 and the next best starter (Giolito...) is pretty large, so if we're gonna be hunting for a pitcher, I hope it's one of them.  I'm gonna give my arguments for and against each, then reveal in order who I'd want.

Blake Snell

Pros

Full disclosure, I really like Snell. I'd be willing to go up to 7 years to get him.  I think his profile is probably the best case scenario for our first 5+ year pitching contract since, if I remember correctly, CJ Wilson. He strikes me as a player who's built for longevity - he misses lots of bats and gets K's but doesn't rely on an incredibly high velo fastball to do so.  He also has ace potential, something I definitely want out of a long term pitcher.  A big criticism he gets is his "2 good seasons," but realistically his floor is pretty high. His only truly bad season was 2021, his first year in San Diego.  He's not a Cy Young contender yearly, but there's a pretty unusual and interesting reason why that I'll get into more in the cons.

Cons

Obviously, cost.  He'll likely cost more that the other 2, but like I said I'd rather go in on a signing than half ass a commitment. Besides his oft-pointed to lack of IP, Snell's major drawbacks are 1. His BB%, 2. His Barrel% and 3. 'Losing Pitches'.  A lot of his issues are tangled together - he throws more pitches, leading to less innings, more walks, and more hitters counts (which means more barrels) because he can struggle with control. Besides that, he sometimes 'loses pitches' from year to year, which it really weird.  In 2016 and 2017, he had a killer offspeed, but a pretty middling fastball and breaking ball. 2019 and 2021 he had a strong fastball, but a weak offspeed. In 2020, he had an incredible offspeed and breaking ball, but a weak fastball. Finally, 2022 Snell had a great fastball and breaking ball, but a bad offspeed.  He's only had his whole arsenal firing for 2 years in his career, and I'll let you piece together which ones those were.

Jordan Montgomery

Pros

Don't have to look far. Just look at what he did for the Rangers during their World Series run this postseason. Unlike Snell, he controls walks well, and throws more innings per year thus far, and has been okay at deterring hard contact as of late. He's also cheaper than Snell, but likely more expensive than Imanaga, and about to turn 31, putting him in the middle age wise as well.

Cons

His peripherals are, simply, unimpressive.  Unlike Snell, he controls walks well, but also unlike snell, he doesn't get lots of strikeouts.  He gets lots of groundballs, but the elite groundball pitchers usually have far lower barrel and hard hit rates than Montgomery does.  I also doubt it will be a significant price decrease, and, in the simplest terms, Montgomery has a lower floor and a lower ceiling than Snell does.

Shōta Imanaga

Pros

If you wanna look at stats for stats, Imanaga's are the best. He's been dominant in Japan, and a career ERA of 2.96 speaks for itself.  He relies heavily on his wicked breaking balls and offspeed, because even though his fastball has good spin, the velo isn't there.  In the World Baseball Classic he had the best Stuff+ out of any pitcher, beating his teammate (and new Dodger) Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Despite his lack of velocity, he controls speed well, with his fastball around 90 MPH, an 85 MPH splitter, 85ish MPH cutter, 73 MPH curve, and an 80 MPH changeup. He's also the youngest and the cheapest, which may appeal to the Angels who need a lot of help.

Cons

He gives up lots of homers, gets hit hard on occasion, and is unproven on an MLB level. My simplest criticism is that his floor could be long relief and his ceiling is a 2-3 pitcher. I do like him, though.

P.S. If you've never watched him before, you'll be shocked how similar his delivery is to Tyler Anderson. It's crazy.

 

My final verdict is I want Snell the most, then Imanaga, then Montgomery.  I think money spent is money spent, so if you're spending money I want upside, and I want the best chance for sustained success. I think Snell gives us that the most, and I really think he's a top tier starting pitcher in the league.  Who would you guys want? Any of these 3? Giolito? No-one? Let me know.

 

[Angels 1961]

If Angels get Snell do they have 5 man rotation? Would be 4 lefties unless a trade is made.

[ScottM]

43 minutes ago, CartiHalos said:

With Yamamoto off the board, I think we'll see the starting pitching market pick up quickly.  The Angels look poised to be right in the mix of things, with their eyes presumably set on one of the top 3 free agent starting pitchers - Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Shota Imanaga - whom I have lovingly dubbed The 3 Lefties.  The gap between these 3 and the next best starter (Giolito...) is pretty large, so if we're gonna be hunting for a pitcher, I hope it's one of them.  I'm gonna give my arguments for and against each, then reveal in order who I'd want.

Blake Snell

Pros

Full disclosure, I really like Snell. I'd be willing to go up to 7 years to get him.  I think his profile is probably the best case scenario for our first 5+ year pitching contract since, if I remember correctly, CJ Wilson. He strikes me as a player who's built for longevity - he misses lots of bats and gets K's but doesn't rely on an incredibly high velo fastball to do so.  He also has ace potential, something I definitely want out of a long term pitcher.  A big criticism he gets is his "2 good seasons," but realistically his floor is pretty high. His only truly bad season was 2021, his first year in San Diego.  He's not a Cy Young contender yearly, but there's a pretty unusual and interesting reason why that I'll get into more in the cons.

Cons

Obviously, cost.  He'll likely cost more that the other 2, but like I said I'd rather go in on a signing than half ass a commitment. Besides his oft-pointed to lack of IP, Snell's major drawbacks are 1. His BB%, 2. His Barrel% and 3. 'Losing Pitches'.  A lot of his issues are tangled together - he throws more pitches, leading to less innings, more walks, and more hitters counts (which means more barrels) because he can struggle with control. Besides that, he sometimes 'loses pitches' from year to year, which it really weird.  In 2016 and 2017, he had a killer offspeed, but a pretty middling fastball and breaking ball. 2019 and 2021 he had a strong fastball, but a weak offspeed. In 2020, he had an incredible offspeed and breaking ball, but a weak fastball. Finally, 2022 Snell had a great fastball and breaking ball, but a bad offspeed.  He's only had his whole arsenal firing for 2 years in his career, and I'll let you piece together which ones those were.

Jordan Montgomery

Pros

Don't have to look far. Just look at what he did for the Rangers during their World Series run this postseason. Unlike Snell, he controls walks well, and throws more innings per year thus far, and has been okay at deterring hard contact as of late. He's also cheaper than Snell, but likely more expensive than Imanaga, and about to turn 31, putting him in the middle age wise as well.

Cons

His peripherals are, simply, unimpressive.  Unlike Snell, he controls walks well, but also unlike snell, he doesn't get lots of strikeouts.  He gets lots of groundballs, but the elite groundball pitchers usually have far lower barrel and hard hit rates than Montgomery does.  I also doubt it will be a significant price decrease, and, in the simplest terms, Montgomery has a lower floor and a lower ceiling than Snell does.

Shōta Imanaga

Pros

If you wanna look at stats for stats, Imanaga's are the best. He's been dominant in Japan, and a career ERA of 2.96 speaks for itself.  He relies heavily on his wicked breaking balls and offspeed, because even though his fastball has good spin, the velo isn't there.  In the World Baseball Classic he had the best Stuff+ out of any pitcher, beating his teammate (and new Dodger) Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Despite his lack of velocity, he controls speed well, with his fastball around 90 MPH, an 85 MPH splitter, 85ish MPH cutter, 73 MPH curve, and an 80 MPH changeup. He's also the youngest and the cheapest, which may appeal to the Angels who need a lot of help.

Cons

He gives up lots of homers, gets hit hard on occasion, and is unproven on an MLB level. My simplest criticism is that his floor could be long relief and his ceiling is a 2-3 pitcher. I do like him, though.

P.S. If you've never watched him before, you'll be shocked how similar his delivery is to Tyler Anderson. It's crazy.

 

My final verdict is I want Snell the most, then Imanaga, then Montgomery.  I think money spent is money spent, so if you're spending money I want upside, and I want the best chance for sustained success. I think Snell gives us that the most, and I really think he's a top tier starting pitcher in the league.  Who would you guys want? Any of these 3? Giolito? No-one? Let me know.

 

I disagree with your analysis but your posts have been very well thought out.

Maybe Enright will have a different formula but the Angels have been horrible with pitchers who issue too many walks. I can legitimately see a 100 BB season for Snell (if he pitches enough innings). I don't think he's as horrible as some have suggested here but he's my 3rd of 3 on this list for me.

Imanaga makes the most sense, which is why the Angels won't do it. 3 years in a row of 150 innings (4 if you want to disregard 2020). Doesn't walk a ton of guys. Has big strikeout potential and would do well in Angel Stadium.

[Angels 1961]

2 hours ago, ScottM said:

I disagree with your analysis but your posts have been very well thought out.

Maybe Enright will have a different formula but the Angels have been horrible with pitchers who issue too many walks. I can legitimately see a 100 BB season for Snell (if he pitches enough innings). I don't think he's as horrible as some have suggested here but he's my 3rd of 3 on this list for me.

Imanaga makes the most sense, which is why the Angels won't do it. 3 years in a row of 150 innings (4 if you want to disregard 2020). Doesn't walk a ton of guys. Has big strikeout potential and would do well in Angel Stadium.

Did Imanaga pitch in 6 man rotation? 

[BTH]

I’d like any of the three.

Without knowing contract terms, my pref list would be: Snell, Montgomery, Imanaga.

[FromJapan]

4 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

Did Imanaga pitch in 6 man rotation? 

At least for the past few years, the BayStars have often had a six-man rotation for starting lineup.

(Reference in Japanese: Imanaga is written in Japanese letters as "今永".) 
Yokohama DeNA BayStars 2023 starting rotation table

 

[HBAngel13]

I like Snell in a vacuum, but my fear is the cost and years, especially for a team that is likely 2 years away from making a serious push.  Not saying they can’t win in 2024/2025, but so much would have to come together just right.  Snell is a very good pitcher that can be great, but he isn’t Gerritt Cole.  

Working off the premise that the next year or two are transition years, I would prefer guys on 1-3 yr deals.  Last offseason there was a lot of discussion about “raising the floor”.  Our final record didn’t reflect it, but I think that philosophy served us very well and would like to see that continued in 2024.  Target guys that can give solid performance on a reasonable commitment. I don’t think Snell fits that profile. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

The only reason you sign any of these guys is if your dealing one of the current group. Or as a #2... But, since there isn't a #1 available in Free Agency. And the only possible one is Burnes... dunno.

We don't need another Lefty and yeah, it matters. Especially, when each has similar repertoire and release points.

Snell for his positives, just doesn't move it for me. Due to his 2 - 30+ start 2x 180 inning seasons other than that he's gone 120+ nah... 

I'm good. I'd tell Arte to keep his Dinero!

[FromJapan]

It was revealed on December 26 (JST) that Imanaga had traveled to the United States.  Several teams are said to be interested in acquiring him, including the Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox.

(Reference in Japanese) Sports Hochi on December 27, 2023 (JST)

The point of concern is that he is the same height as Yamamoto, approximately 5'10" (178cm).

Edited December 27, 2023 by FromJapan
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