Proof that massive SP contracts are stupid?

[Taylor]

Pitcher A (2022): 33 starts, 3.3 fWAR, 2.4 bWAR $36M

Pitcher B (2022): 27 starts, 3.8 fWAR, 3.4 bWAR, $720K

Which player was the better value this year? Pitcher B by far.

Pitcher A is obvious. Who is Pitcher B?

[OhtaniSan]

Is that our boy Sandoval?

[jsnpritchett]

36 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Pitcher A (2022): 33 starts, 3.3 fWAR, $36M

Pitcher B (2022): 27 starts, 3.8 fWAR, $720K

Which player was the better value this year? Pitcher B by far.

Pitcher A is obvious. Who is Pitcher B?

 

Chuck Finley?

Fernando Valenzuela?

Mark Gubicza?

Jk.  Sandoval.

But I don't think that in and of itself means that all big contracts for SPs are bad--especially when you're the Yankees and can more or less sign whoever you want for whatever amount you want.  I'd still take Cole over Sandoval in any individual game right now, given their respective track records.  Moving forward, obviously Sandoval is a better "bargain," but that doesn't necessarily mean that Cole's deal with NY was bad for them.

Edited October 11, 2022 by jsnpritchett

[Blarg]

36 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Pitcher A (2022): 33 starts, 3.3 fWAR, 2.4 bWAR $36M

Pitcher B (2022): 27 starts, 3.8 fWAR, 3.4 bWAR, $720K

Which player was the better value this year? Pitcher B by far.

Pitcher A is obvious. Who is Pitcher B?

Pitcher A threw 200 innings of work. Pitcher B pitched 148 innings. Who pitched the other 6 games and 52 innings for the Angels? 

 

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, Blarg said:

Pitcher A threw 200 innings of work. Pitcher B pitched 148 innings. Who pitched the other 6 games and 52 innings for the Angels? 

 

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Blarg said:

Pitcher A threw 200 innings of work. Pitcher B pitched 148 innings. Who pitched the other 6 games and 52 innings for the Angels? 

 

Ohtani.  

[Docwaukee]

Just now, jsnpritchett said:

come on.  

[Taylor]

4 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Pitcher A threw 200 innings of work. Pitcher B pitched 148 innings. Who pitched the other 6 games and 52 innings for the Angels? 

 

You always find the weirdest things to focus on just to stir up disagreement.

A better rebuttal would be what jsnpritchett posted. Or you could take another massively paid SP like Scherzer and compare his cost per WAR to someone like Sandoval.

[T.G.]

The real truth is that it's better to develop your own pitching rather than signing free agents, whenever possible.

[Taylor]

1 minute ago, T.G. said:

The real truth is that it's better to develop your own pitching rather than signing free agents, whenever possible.

Exactly. 

[Inside Pitch]

6 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Pitcher A threw 200 innings of work. Pitcher B pitched 148 innings. Who pitched the other 6 games and 52 innings for the Angels? 

fWAR is a counting stat, meaning the guy that pitched more innings took more time to compile that fWAR.   I understand what you're trying to argue but in doing so you show just how much better Sandoval was and how poor a value Cole was this season.

But if you want an apples to apples comparison that still makes Taylor's argument, Martin Perez pitched 196 innings also managed 3.8 fWAR and he only cost the Rangers 4 mil.

 

[Blarg]

2 minutes ago, Taylor said:

You always find the weirdest things fo argue about just to stir up disagreement.

A better rebuttal would be what jsnpritchett posted. Or you could take another massively paid SP like Scherzer and compare his cost per WAR to someone like Sandoval.

Nope, the 6 man rotation takes 6  games away from the top starters and puts them onto a 6th level pitcher. That's 26-28 games given to a combination of AAAA pitchers and reclamation projects. Whatever WAR Sandoval is able to create it has to be looked at as an incomplete season and those games picked up by others plays against that. 

Whatever WAR Cole creates he is also responsible for the outcome of 6 more games than Sandoval and since WAR is a cumulative that can rise or fall depending on games played, there is no saying what Sandoval could produce if you added 6 more games to his workload. But what is for sure is the bullpen usage is much higher with those game covered by those 5th and 6th level pitchers this season. And that works against the overall chances of winning once the starter exits the game. 

[Blarg]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

fWAR is a counting stat, meaning the guy that pitched more innings took more time to compile that fWAR.   I understand what you're trying to argue but in doing so you show just how much better Sandoval was and how poor a value Cole was this season.

But if you want an apples to apples comparison that still makes Taylor's argument, Martin Perez pitched 196 innings also managed 3.8 fWAR and he only cost the Rangers 4 mil.

 

We should trade for Perez. 

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, T.G. said:

The real truth is that it's better to develop your own pitching rather than signing free agents, whenever possible.

[Inside Pitch]

Just now, Blarg said:

We should trade for Perez. 

He's a FA -- so is Stripling.   Both guys made 4 mil or less last year.  If they do want to add another SP, those two aren't awful choices.

3 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Nope, the 6 man rotation takes 6  games away from the top starters and puts them onto a 6th level pitcher. That's 26-28 games given to a combination of AAAA pitchers and reclamation projects. Whatever WAR Sandoval is able to create it has to be looked at as an incomplete season and those games picked up by others plays against that. 

Whatever WAR Cole creates he is also responsible for the outcome of 6 more games than Sandoval and since WAR is a cumulative that can rise or fall depending on games played, there is no saying what Sandoval could produce if you added 6 more games to his workload. But what is for sure is the bullpen usage is much higher with those game covered by those 5th and 6th level pitchers this season. And that works against the overall chances of winning once the starter exits the game. 

The trick to a 6 man rotation is to have the 5th and 6th slots be taken by two number 4s.  Easier said than done, I know.

[Blarg]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

The trick to a 6 man rotation is to have the 5th and 6th slots be taken by two number 4s.  Easier said than done, I know.

And that is where the Angels have failed and probably will continue to fail because there is limited resources of even #4 arms out there. It's hard to piece together a 5 man rotation given health issues causing at least one of the 5 to miss starts. So now not only do you need those two #4 but also depth to cover adequately any one of the 6 that go down. It's a bad numbers game to play instead of simply converting everyone to a 5 man rotation and have a Barria and a couple of Trash Pandas to cover for short stints. 

[Angels 1961]

14 minutes ago, Blarg said:

And that is where the Angels have failed and probably will continue to fail because there is limited resources of even #4 arms out there. It's hard to piece together a 5 man rotation given health issues causing at least one of the 5 to miss starts. So now not only do you need those two #4 but also depth to cover adequately any one of the 6 that go down. It's a bad numbers game to play instead of simply converting everyone to a 5 man rotation and have a Barria and a couple of Trash Pandas to cover for short stints. 

Be like Doyers they have 1 and 2's

[stevestevens]

19 hours ago, Taylor said:

Pitcher A (2022): 33 starts, 3.3 fWAR, 2.4 bWAR $36M

Pitcher B (2022): 27 starts, 3.8 fWAR, 3.4 bWAR, $720K

Which player was the better value this year? Pitcher B by far.

Pitcher A is obvious. Who is Pitcher B?

Cool, let's go out and sign 5 pitcher B's.

[floplag]

A couple isolated examples aren't that telling, you could probably find many of them... and i do think the extra 50 innings factor in... BUT, the bottom line is virtually no top dollar FA SP contract ever gives value. 
Yesterday Yankee fan was on their knees for Cole, and yet they have been screaming to get rid of him all season.
Verlander is the probably Cy winning in the AL and he got hammered. 
I still think Hou feels better about JV than Yankee fan does about Cole. 

[Taylor]

What is this "on their knees" thing? I've heard it twice now. Yesterday from Jeff Passan. 

Is it a reference to worshipping/idolizing someone or is it a blow job reference?

[tdawg87]

23 minutes ago, Taylor said:

What is this "on their knees" thing? I've heard it twice now. Yesterday from Jeff Passan. 

Is it a reference to worshipping/idolizing someone or is it a blow job reference?

Yes.

[Blarg]

3 hours ago, Taylor said:

What is this "on their knees" thing? I've heard it twice now. Yesterday from Jeff Passan. 

Is it a reference to worshipping/idolizing someone or is it a blow job reference?

Pasan is so short he doesn't need to get on his knees for Judge. 

[failos]

6 hours ago, floplag said:

A couple isolated examples aren't that telling, you could probably find many of them... and i do think the extra 50 innings factor in... BUT, the bottom line is virtually no top dollar FA SP contract ever gives value. 
Yesterday Yankee fan was on their knees for Cole, and yet they have been screaming to get rid of him all season.
Verlander is the probably Cy winning in the AL and he got hammered. 
I still think Hou feels better about JV than Yankee fan does about Cole. 

Angels 1961 esque post. Get a Grammarly subscription

[floplag]

16 hours ago, failos said:

Angels 1961 esque post. Get a Grammarly subscription

Thank you for the reminder why i dont post more here anymore.. carry on. 

[UndertheHalo]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Thank you for the reminder why i dont post more here anymore.. carry on. 

Bye bye sweet heart