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Fangraphs piece on Michael Lorenzen


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  • Chuck changed the title to Fangraphs piece on Michael Lorenzen

He was one of the guys I wanted them to sign the most in the offseason and he's looked every bit the part of what I had hoped to see. 

Would love to see him have a strong enough season that the Angels are able to lock him in to a deal around 2-3 years with an AAV of $10-$13m or so, kind of like what the Alex Cobb, Kyle Gibson, Alex Wood, Jake Odorizzi's of the world get. 

I'm not quite as optimistic that we see Syndergaard back here next year. If he has a really big rebound year it would be hard to afford him and Ohtani coupled with other needs, and he'll be among the top FA arms next winter. So I hope we get max mileage out of him this year. 

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5 minutes ago, totdprods said:

He was one of the guys I wanted them to sign the most in the offseason and he's looked every bit the part of what I had hoped to see. 

Would love to see him have a strong enough season that the Angels are able to lock him in to a deal around 2-3 years with an AAV of $10-$13m or so, kind of like what the Alex Cobb, Kyle Gibson, Alex Wood, Jake Odorizzi's of the world get. 

I'm not quite as optimistic that we see Syndergaard back here next year. If he has a really big rebound year it would be hard to afford him and Ohtani coupled with other needs, and he'll be among the top FA arms next winter. So I hope we get max mileage out of him this year. 

The velo an all of Syndergaard's pitches is down a few MPH right now, that's something that will likely be heavily scrutinized as the year goes on.  He's been good so far, but also a little lucky and isn't missing many bats.  

He could become old Thor and start ramping up to 97-98 again, or this might just be where he is now as an almost 30 year old coming off TJS.  

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17 minutes ago, Reveille1984 said:

The velo an all of Syndergaard's pitches is down a few MPH right now, that's something that will likely be heavily scrutinized as the year goes on.  He's been good so far, but also a little lucky and isn't missing many bats.  

He could become old Thor and start ramping up to 97-98 again, or this might just be where he is now as an almost 30 year old coming off TJS.  

Yeah I'm a bit skeptical still with Syndergaard. IMO he looks pretty hittable and I'm worried teams will update their scouting and catch up to that quicker than any of his velocity or movement returning. But he also could simply be developing into more of a pitcher and less of a thrower as he is at that stage in his career, and his velocity should still creep up as the season goes on. 

I'm really excited about Sandoval. I think there is a legitimate chance that it all clicks and he becomes a fringey #1 type. I really do. The slider and change are just so good. He just needs to get a little more consistent, a little less emotional, and find that balance between swings and misses and quick outs to get deeper into games more consistently. And I don't think it happens this year, but I can see Detmers having the exact same ceiling and the exact same issues to work through. 

If we can get to a spot where Ohtani, Sandoval, Detmers, and Lorenzen are locked up for the next few seasons and they click, we could be in fantastic shape.

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5 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Yeah I'm a bit skeptical still with Syndergaard. IMO he looks pretty hittable and I'm worried teams will update their scouting and catch up to that quicker than any of his velocity or movement returning. But he also could simply be developing into more of a pitcher and less of a thrower as he is at that stage in his career, and his velocity should still creep up as the season goes on. 

Define hittable because....

image.png

He's not striking people out, but there is absolutely nothing in that profile, small as it is that hints at him being hittable in the typical sense.

This is Shohei
image.png

This is Sandoval

image.png

Verlander

image.png
Now this...
image.png
and this...
image.png
Are examples of what I'd term as pitchers showing themselves to be hittable.
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2 hours ago, totdprods said:

He was one of the guys I wanted them to sign the most in the offseason and he's looked every bit the part of what I had hoped to see. 

I was in the opposite camp. I totally thought he was more of a "just incase we don't add another real starter" signing. However, he's shown that he's much better than that. It was actually his "bad" start that turned me -- his stuff is WAY better than his career stats would indicate.

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I think the key for Lorenzen is very similar to Sandoval: learning how to be a pitcher. I saw some of the vintage Sandoval stuff last start with him getting too amped up and throwing balls in tough situations. He got out of it cleanly, and has a clean ERA so far; but he's only got 8 innings in through 2 starts. I think he's learning to manage his emotions and deal with adversity. Same will be true of Lorenzen. He snowballed a bit in that 4th inning. However, it seemed like he knew his mistake. And Siri didn't get hit, so that was an outlier. I like his stuff, and think if he can maintain health and learn to throw 80 pitches instead of 50, he can be really valuable to them. 

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 4/22/2022 at 1:05 PM, Inside Pitch said:

Define hittable because....

image.png

He's not striking people out, but there is absolutely nothing in that profile, small as it is that hints at him being hittable in the typical sense.

This is Shohei
image.png

This is Sandoval

image.png

Verlander

image.png
Now this...
image.png
and this...
image.png
Are examples of what I'd term as pitchers showing themselves to be hittable.

 

Update:

image.png

 

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2 hours ago, totdprods said:

 

Update:

image.png

 

This is great.  

It only took nearly a month (4 starts) for one horrendous start to slant the data enough for you to respond.  

Look up the game logs at both Savant and Brooksbaseball.net prior to last nights game and tell me what the numbers show. You'll be surprised to find that prior to last night he was most "hittable" in the game where he posted his seasonal high in Ks.

Brooks had his FB averaging out to 93 MPH last night, down almost 3 MPH from where it had been previously -- THAT merits watching.  

I'll say this much.  If his FB continues to sit at 93, then he's in trouble.

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1 hour ago, Taylor said:

Is that good?

 

 

(I honestly don't know.)

Blue is bad -- red is good.  

Exit Velo, Hard hit%, K%, BB%, WHIFF%, Chase Rate, are predictive..  The rest are a measure of results .vs the league average and anything with an x in front of it is an attempt to normalize those results..  He got lit up and it drove the results categories down.

This is like his ERA going from well below league average at 2.45 to 3.60 in one game.

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1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

No.  Basically the more grey/blue you see, the worse it is.  For example, on his fastball spin, that means that 76% of pitchers are better than him on that metric.  On K%, 79% are better.  Etc., etc.

Syndergaard is a throwback guy when it comes to his FB and CB in the sense that his spin has always been weak.  It's always been pure octane with him.

In his best season he was at 39/21 in FB/CB spin.   He needs the velocity or he's toast.  

 

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1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

Syndergaard is a throwback guy when it comes to his FB and CB in the sense that his spin has always been weak.  It was always pure octane with him.

In his best season he was at 39/21 in FB/CB spin.

 

I'm not debating that.  Just wanted to explain what the colors and percentiles meant, and that generally speaking, the more blue/grey you see, the "worse" that person is compared to the average.

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Just now, jsnpritchett said:

I'm not debating that.  Just wanted to explain what the colors and percentiles meant, and that generally speaking, the more blue/grey you see, the "worse" that person is compared to the average.

Didn't think you were, I was essentially arguing that he's in trouble if he can't stay above 95.  He doesn't get enough spin/break to get away with 93.

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8 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Syndergaard is a throwback guy when it comes to his FB and CB in the sense that his spin has always been weak.  It's always been pure octane with him.

In his best season he was at 39/21 in FB/CB spin.   He needs the velocity or he's toast.  

 

Mmmmm, now I want some toast.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 5/17/2022 at 12:49 PM, Inside Pitch said:

This is great.  

It only took nearly a month (4 starts) for one horrendous start to slant the data enough for you to respond.  

Look up the game logs at both Savant and Brooksbaseball.net prior to last nights game and tell me what the numbers show. You'll be surprised to find that prior to last night he was most "hittable" in the game where he posted his seasonal high in Ks.

Brooks had his FB averaging out to 93 MPH last night, down almost 3 MPH from where it had been previously -- THAT merits watching.  

I'll say this much.  If his FB continues to sit at 93, then he's in trouble.

image.png

This still doesn't seem very good. And now there's more than one bad start in there.

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