Why the Angels will have a top 5 offense (by the numbers)

[jsnpritchett]

Post saved to be reviewed at a later time.

 

Oh, I'm totally good for it, should it happen.  You know that.

[Second Base]

I think more than anything, Eppler built depth, which is something Dipoto never did. Pennington, Soto, Bandy, Choi, Petit, Ortega, Gentry, Nava, Kubitza, Cowart....

That's a lot of options to choose from. We've seen it play out in his favor on the pitching side of things. Weav looks done, CJ has no timetable and Skaggs is mysteriously behind schedule even though he's been out 18 months now. This would cripple most teams, but here we are with Richards, Heaney, Tropeano, Shoemaker and Santiago and that's still a very solid starting 5.

Depth is q real need among any team and offers more value than is currently quantified. And speaking of non-quantitative analysis, you have to figure bringing back Roenicke, moving Disarcina off3B and also bringing in Bud Black has to offer a morale boost.

[Docwaukee]

If we're a top 5 offense in all of MLB this season, I will gladly donate $1,000 to a charity of your choice.  I appreciate the work you did, but I just don't see it happening.  This is one post that I'll be happy to be wrong about: if I'm wrong, and you're right, we'll all have a really fun Angels team to watch this season, and some charity will get some dough. 

Nice.  

[QuinlansMinion]

If we're a top 5 offense in all of MLB this season, I will gladly donate $1,000 to a charity of your choice. I appreciate the work you did, but I just don't see it happening. This is one post that I'll be happy to be wrong about: if I'm wrong, and you're right, we'll all have a really fun Angels team to watch this season, and some charity will get some dough.

Haha this will be funny when we have a top 5 offense and still miss the playoffs

[tdawg87]

Tl;dr

[AngelsLakersFan]

Models are only as good as their inputs. In this case I would take just about every input you gave Doc. 

 

Our players are capable of putting up those lines, but is that the most likely outcome? Nava very well could have a .350 OBP but as a 33 year old coming off a bad year what is more likely, a .380 OBP or a .320 OBP? In other words, some of our players are not going to meet your predictions, and as a whole there is a lot more downside than upside there. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

Tl;dr

 

If our players all have seasons they are reasonably capable of we will have a top 5 offense in the AL.

[Angel Oracle]

Doc = best doc commentating on sports since the Mighty 690's the Doc, Jon Chelesnik.

Edited March 16, 2016 by Angel Oracle

[Blarg]

Read it again Eric. He's predicting a .320 OBP and a .380 slugging.

Read again, Various Carp listed Giavotella Obp hitting out of the 9 hole.

"Gio had a very good OBP in the nine spot last year (.382), if he can continue with that this year and then you have Escobar and Nava get on-base at their normal rate, all of a sudden, the bases are packed for Trout on a consistent basis."

[Blarg]

He said Gia would have a .320 OBP. The .380 was slugging.

See above post Edited March 16, 2016 by notti

[WeatherWonk]

If there's 1K in charity money riding on this, someone needs to more clearly define "top five offenses". By what measure? In the AL or MLB?

[jsnpritchett]

If there's 1K in charity money riding on this, someone needs to more clearly define "top five offenses". By what measure? In the AL or MLB?

I clearly said top 5 in MLB in my post.

[Docwaukee]

I clearly said top 5 in MLB in my post.

runs or WAR?

[jsnpritchett]

runs or WAR?

Runs.

[Chuck]

linedriver banned, thread cleaned up.

Carry on.

[WeatherWonk]

Top five in runs in MLB?

 

Looking like a very safe bet that charity wont be getting any. 

[70runner]

Spring optimism at its best, except for the headache trying to figure out what you said.  After a couple aspirin, my simple mind boils the offense down to one critical factor...can Pujols hit with RISP?  If he struggles (like last year), teams will avoid Trout like the zika virus.  Given the anticipated OBP improvement at the front of the lineup, Pujols could be an even more critical factor in Angels run production.  If Pujols stops pulling everything left, hits with RISP, teams will more likely pitch to the best hitter in baseball...and pay for it.

 

Top 5 in runs, even if everything comes up roses, unlikely.

[Docwaukee]

Models are only as good as their inputs. In this case I would take just about every input you gave Doc. 

 

Our players are capable of putting up those lines, but is that the most likely outcome? Nava very well could have a .350 OBP but as a 33 year old coming off a bad year what is more likely, a .380 OBP or a .320 OBP? In other words, some of our players are not going to meet your predictions, and as a whole there is a lot more downside than upside there. 

but that's not what I actually put in.  Those numbers would give us around 800 runs.  I made some serious adjustments to most of the players that will likely share at least a little bit of time or have the bigger chance of under performing and get fewer ab because of it.   I factored in about 20% of our production being at a .600 ops.  

[Docwaukee]

i just plugged in only the predicted numbers that I made for the starters and it came out as follows:

 

Predicted: 776

optimal: 790

 

which makes sense because factoring in the bench decreases production by about 5-7%.  

[NrM]

i just plugged in only the predicted numbers that I made for the starters and it came out as follows:

 

Predicted: 776

optimal: 790

 

which makes sense because factoring in the bench decreases production by about 5-7%.  

 

Looks like you are too high with your OBP projections.

 

 

Escobar - ..350

 

Zips - .329

 

 

Nava - .350

 

Zips - .324

 

 

Simmons - .320

 

Zips - .306

 

 

Perez - .320

 

 

Zips - .275

 

 

Gia - .320

 

Zips - .307

Edited March 17, 2016 by Mr. Meeseeks

[NrM]

Is it possible Nava and Escobar finish with a .350 OBP? Yes, but very unlikely. 

Vets don't go to Anaheim and get better. They come here to die.

 

 

I ran it with Zips

 

Came out to 712 runs scored before factoring in the bench.

Edited March 17, 2016 by Mr. Meeseeks

[Blarg]

When, exactly, has zips ever been right about future predictions?

[AngelsLakersFan]

When, exactly, has zips ever been right about future predictions?

 

ZiPs has a standard deviation of about +/-70 runs per team per year. So in other words there is about a 5/6th chance that Doc ends up a little on the optimistic side. 

[Chuck]

I'm wondering if linedriver was khrulz under a new name.

 

Could be, banned his IP's so I doubt we'll see him again. 

[Chuck]

ZIP is almost never close with its predictions so I do not know why people even consider them.