Mike Trout's Mixed "Comeback Season"

[Angelsjunky]

2022: A Comeback...of Sorts

If you're an Angels fan, or serious fan of baseball, you know the gist of two related facts:

1. From 2012-19, Mike Trout was the best player in the world. He played at a consistently great level, accruing 70.6 fWAR, which averages out to 8.8 WAR per season. The second highest WAR total during that span of time was Buster Posey's 47.0. Furthermore, Trout is one of only nine players in baseball history to reach 70 WAR over eight seasons, and the only player other than Barry Bonds to do so after 1970. His 71.3 WAR through age 27 is the highest in baseball history.
2. Mike Trout may no longer be the best player in the world. Over the last half decade, cracks have been showing in Trout's armor: He hasn't surpassed 140 games played since 2016, and has played in only 69% of Angels games over the last six seasons (2017-22). This also seems to corresponds to a decline in his overall performance level: From 2012-19, he averaged 9.9 WAR per 162 games played; from 2020-22, he's averaged 8.3 WAR. Still superstar numbers, but not otherworldly like before.

Last year Trout played in only 36 games, so 2022 was a bit of a comeback year. But he still missed 43 games, playing in 119, or 73.5% of Angels games.

Perhaps the most impressive element of his season were his 40 HR which equates to 54 HR over 162 games played. Despite playing in only 119 games, it was the third highest total of his career. Furthermore, his .630 SLG was the second highest of his career, surpassed only by 2019's .645, just a hair above 2017 and 2018. But his .283 BA and .369 OBP were both career lows. 

Trout's 176 wRC+ is just a bit above his career average of 172, and in the middle of the pack as far as his individual seasons are concerned. While he just missed qualification by 3 AB (he had 499), his 176 wRC+ was 4th in the majors behind Aaron Judge (207), Yordan Alvarez (185), and Paul Goldschmidt (177).

Trout's overall declined performance is illustrated by his 6.0 WAR in 119 games, which pro-rates to 8.2 over 162 games. Again, remarkable for almost any other player in baseball history, but significantly below vintage Trout.

But despite all of those numbers, perhaps what stands out most about Trout's season, is both his career high 27.9 K%  (other than last year's 28.1% over 36 games), and his 10.8 BB%, which was not only far below his career average of 14.9%, but the lowest since his rookie season in 2012 (10.5%). It is the source of both his career low OBP, and probably contributed to his reduced BA.

Other points of concern: Trout stole only 1 base, which fits his recent career, but also had his first negative BsR (Base-running Runs) at -0.4. Even as his SB totals have declined, Trout has remained an excellent baserunner - except for this year. But as per Statcast, his speed hasn't decline - his 2022 sprint speed of 29.4 ft/second is actually the highest it has been since 2017.

His Def (Defensive Runs) was also negative at -0.7, but not an anomaly from his career numbers, which have tended to oscillate above and below 0.0.

The good news is that Trout was healthy enough to play in his most games since 2019 and also displayed as much power as ever; the bad news is that his overall statistical profile implies decline, at least from his peak of 2012-19.

What To Expect Going Forward?

Is there anything we can ascertain by going a level deeper?

One problem with assessing Trout's career, and where he's at in terms of decline, is that the last few years have been unusual, especially for him: the Covid-shortened 2020 season, his injury-shortened 2021 season, and a mixture of his career-worst slump and injury in 2022. In other words, given all that, it is really difficult to say who the "real" Trout is and guess what we can expect next year. I think a couple things are reasonably certain:

1. Trout's peak power is intact. He remains one of the most prolific HR hitters in baseball, with a .331 ISO from 2017 on being the highest in baseball, even above #2 and 3 Aaron Judge's and Fernando Tatis' .303. His .630 SLG during that span--the same as his 2022 total--is also 1st, ahead of Tatis' .596.
2. Injuries remain a concern, as evinced by his 31% games missed from 2017 on, including almost 27% missed in 2022.

As noted above, Trout's speed hasn't declined, so there's no reason to think that his base-running won't improve next year. We'll probably never see double-digit stolen bases again (though he's still capable of stealing 30+), but whatever marred his BsR is likely an anomaly.

Furthermore, I think his BA should also improve, at least to his usual .290+ range. A lot of his .283 BA this year was due to his terrible slump, including a seven game hitless streak within the team's 14-game losing streak in which he went 0-27. If you take that out, he hit .302 on the year - right at his career average (.303).

Whether Trout returns to peak form next year mostly depends upon two factors: his plate discipline and whether or not he can stay healthy. Let's touch upon both:

Will his plate discipline return? We covered some of the numbers above, but another to add: During that same span of 2017-22, Trout has a .428 OBP, higher than his career rate of .415, and that includes the reduction brought about through including his .369 OBP of 2022. Meaning, Trout's typical OBP over the last half decade is around .430, so 2022 represents a 60-point drop due to his lowest walk rate since 2012. This is highly unusual, considering that majority of players actually increase their walk rate as they age (Albert Pujols notwithstanding) and implies that something else was going on: perhaps Trout was pressing due to the team's struggles, and swinging at more pitches outside of the zone. Through May 22 of this year, he had a 15.1 BB%, similar to his last few years. So the answer to the question is: "Probably yes."

(As a side note, this may also be why his BsR was low: Trout might have worked too hard to make something happen on the base paths)

Can Trout stay healthy (or healthy-ish)? That's anyone's guess. It would be hard to deny that he's almost certainly going to miss time to this or that injury. Meaning, the question is not whether he can play in 155 games again (which he hasn't done since 2016), but whether or not he can play in 140, or even just 130. The answer to that question also has a huge impact on the team's chances of success in 2023.

Summarizing Thoughts (or TLDR)

Mike Trout is already a first ballot Hall of Famer. Having just completed his age 30 season (he turned 31 in August), his 82.0 fWAR is 35th all-time; in fact, this year he passed eight players on the all-time list: Bill Dahlen, Ken Griffey Jr, Charlie Gehringer, Dan Brouthers, Brooks Robinson, Pete Rose, Jeff Bagwell, and Robert Clemente. Up next is Joe DiMaggio (83.0) and he's less than 3 WAR from the top 30. If he accrues at least 6 WAR over the next three seasons, he'll be just outside of the top 25 by the end of next year, and inside the top 20 by the end of 2025.

At the same time, his pace has greatly slowed over the last few years. Where after 2019 his 71.3 WAR through age 27 was the highest in baseball history, he's fallen to 7th through age 30.This is largely due to a combination of injuries and Covid.

2022 was his highest games played (119) since 2019, and a season of highs and lows, including peak power performance and the worst slump of his career. Most notably, his walk rate was was close to the lowest of his career, although that is probably due to the nature of the season: The Angels collapse, including a 14-game losing streak, that saw Trout's walk rate plummet as he presumably pressed to turn the ship around.

Taking all things into account, there's no reason to think that we shouldn't see peak Trout next year--at least with the bat, as he remains one of the best hitters in baseball. The biggest question, again, is his health. If he can stay healthy for close to 140 games, he has a good chance of eclipsing 8 WAR again. But unless he can reach 140+ games, we probably won't see a "vintage Trout" 9 WAR season. 

[Taylor]

Great writeup. Thanks AJ.

Didn't Trout also start the season with God-tier numbers? I remember before the Big Slump and losing streak he was on pace for one of his best seasons ever. Unless I'm misremembering.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I think the health is the real question. His career worst slump coincided with his injury and contributed heavily to his worst numbers. Obviously the health is the issue, and decline is essentially always health related so who knows.

I think the low walk rate has a lot to do with Ohtani moving from hitting in front of him to hitting behind him. Sort of like how his walk rate jumped up when teams finally figured out Albert Pujols couldn’t hit anymore. Teams also got a lot more confident trying to throw fastballs by Trout before he went on the IL.

[AngelsLakersFan]

6 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Great writeup. Thanks AJ.

Didn't Trout also start the season with God-tier numbers? I remember before the Big Slump and losing streak he was on pace for one of his best seasons ever. Unless I'm misremembering.

I think you are thinking of 2021 though Trout regularly puts up god-tier numbers

[Angelsjunky]

6 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Great writeup. Thanks AJ.

Didn't Trout also start the season with God-tier numbers? I remember before the Big Slump and losing streak he was on pace for one of his best seasons ever. Unless I'm misremembering.

Yes. For the first 150+ PA or so, he was hitting even better than Judge's final numbers with something like a 220 wRC+. I stupidly made a post about his chances of a 200 wRC+ season, which was the occult seed egregore that led to their collapse.

[Angelsjunky]

Through May 24 (before the team slump): .323/.434/.699, 214 wRC+ in 159 PA (15.1 BB%)

May 24 - July 12 (team losing streak until Trout's injury): .221/.305/.510, 123 wRC+ in 167 PA (9.0 BB%)

August 19 - on (return from injury until end of season): .308/.370/.686, 192 wRC+ in 173 PA (8.7 BB%)

Very close periods of time, three very different "micro-seasons." It is weird that his BB% didn't increase in the last one.

[AngelStew43]

I hope that Mike continues to use the whole field approach.  And, if he could cut down the strikeouts, and get on base just a little more, his overall numbers would be even better. 

 

[Taylor]

3 minutes ago, AngelStew43 said:

I hope that Mike continues to use the whole field approach.  And, if he could cut down the strikeouts, and get on base just a little more, his overall numbers would be even better. 

 

And if he could also go back to stealing a bunch of bases, and providing above average defense. And do my taxes for me.

[Angelsjunky]

Well, to be fair to AngelStew43, the implication of my original post is that there's reason to think that Trout can't return to his peak hitting form that we saw in 2017-19, when his hitting numbers improved over 2012-16. Meaning, while the earlier version of Trout--especially 2012-13--may have been an overall better and more dynamic player, he became a better hitter in 2017, with 2018 his highest wRC+ (188), 2017 his second highest (180) and 2019 his third highest (177). Or to put it another way:

2012-16: 170 wRC+

2017-19: 182 wRC+

2020 and 21 both had extenuating circumstances that make his numbers unreliable, as far as projecting into the future.

2022 was marred by two terrible slumps, one in late May to early June, and a second in early July before he went down with injury. If we remove just one of those slumps and/or replace them more with garden variety Troutian slumps, then all of a sudden his overall hitting numbers are more in line with 2017-19. 

And when we consider the psychological factors at play: the 14-game losing streak and a team in utter free fall, then I think a lot of his "decline" this year was mental. Unless, of course, the Angels implode again next year, and of course that will not happen...

Right?

 

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Through May 24 (before the team slump): .323/.434/.699, 214 wRC+ in 159 PA (15.1 BB%)

May 24 - July 12 (team losing streak until Trout's injury): .221/.305/.510, 123 wRC+ in 167 PA (9.0 BB%)

August 19 - on (return from injury until end of season): .308/.370/.686, 192 wRC+ in 173 PA (8.7 BB%)

Very close periods of time, three very different "micro-seasons." It is weird that his BB% didn't increase in the last one.

through may 24th.  Swing rate of 37%

2nd period above - 43.6%

3rd period - 46.7%

coming into the season it was about 37%.  

 

 

[Taylor]

7 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Well, to be fair to AngelStew43, the implication of my original post is that there's reason to think that Trout can't return to his peak hitting form that we saw in 2017-19, when his hitting numbers improved over 2012-16. Meaning, while the earlier version of Trout--especially 2012-13--may have been an overall better and more dynamic player, he became a better hitter in 2017, with 2018 his highest wRC+ (188), 2017 his second highest (180) and 2019 his third highest (177). Or to put it another way:

2012-16: 170 wRC+

2017-19: 182 wRC+

2020 and 21 both had extenuating circumstances that make his numbers unreliable, as far as projecting into the future.

2022 was marred by two terrible slumps, one in late May to early June, and a second in early July before he went down with injury. If we remove just one of those slumps and/or replace them more with garden variety Troutian slumps, then all of a sudden his overall hitting numbers are more in line with 2017-19. 

And when we consider the psychological factors at play: the 14-game losing streak and a team in utter free fall, then I think a lot of his "decline" this year was mental. Unless, of course, the Angels implode again next year, and of course that will not happen...

Right?

 

I just worry that his decline is manifesting itself in longer slumps.

[UndertheHalo]

He’s the best player when he’s playing.  
 

therein lies the problem.  Anyway.  This thread is an act of apostasy.  Repent.  Find god. 

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

I just worry that his decline is manifesting itself in longer slumps.

I was worried about that too, back in June and especially after his July slump. But given his lack of a significant slump once he came back from injury, when he seemed more relaxed--and perhaps accepting of the team's fate--he didn't have a long slump. So I tend to think those horrible slumps were largely, if not entirely, psychological.

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, Docwaukee said:

through may 24th.  Swing rate of 37%

2nd period above - 43.6%

3rd period - 46.7%

coming into the season it was about 37%.  

 

 

I wonder if anyone has the stats for Ohtani hitting in front of him vs Ohtani hitting behind him. I suspect this explains the majority of it outside of the month or so leading up to his IL trip.

[Justin]

6 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

played in only 69% of Angels games over the last six seasons (2017-22)

Even though I already knew this, it still depresses me every time I am reminded. Like hearing that my first two girlfriends both became lesbians after dating me, or reading that Fleetwood Mac's Rumours is one of the Top-10 selling albums of all time.  

[Docwaukee]

I suspect his injury was bothering him prior to going on the IL which is more than enough of a reason for him to have had a bad 13 games.  

5 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I wonder if anyone has the stats for Ohtani hitting in front of him vs Ohtani hitting behind him. I suspect this explains the majority of it outside of the month or so leading up to his IL trip.

it's pretty much the same.  Almost completely corresponds.  

[ScottT]

Lol

The bi-annual Weird as fuck tldr about how Mike Trout isn't what he was

Sad

Still a great player.

Not really slowing.  Not like Al.