Will Trout hit 500 home runs in his career?

[REDneck]

What say you?

I think he will, but I don't think it's a given.

Edited May 25, 2023 by REDneck

[HeavenlyHalos]

Easily unless injuries derail his career. If he remains relatively healthy, he should reach 400 next year, his age 32 season. 

[Swordsman78]

Yes. Trout will exceed everyone's fav Angel. 

[Blarg]

Trout passed Tim Salmon a long time ago.

[Justin]

Yes. I expect in the final years of his contract, when his elite speed is long gone, that he will only try to hit homers. A more likable version of Pujols. I expect he will spend a lot more time at DH to stay healthy. I think it's more likely that he hits 600 than fails to reach 500.  

[Angelsjunky]

Absolutely. Regardless of whether or not he's slipped a bit with the bat, he's going to rather easily get to 500 HR. He's at 362, and only needs 138. Meaning, he's already 72% of the way there. He is only 31, and has 7.7 years left on his contract. Even if the last few years as a disaster, he only needs to average 25 in 2023-28 to get there.

Also, I suspect he has several more 35+ HR seasons in him. As far as his overall lowered numbers, the power coming back is the least of my concerns.

[Angelsfan1984]

I think he'll end up in the low 600's.

[aznhockeyguy]

I did some quick paper math.  Since 2021 to last night's game, Trout is averaging a HR every 12.283 at bats.  I made some assumptions and lowered the ratio to 1 HR for every 16 at bats for the next 7 years, with Trout averaging 400 at bats per season, which is about 120 games a season, which is about 25 HR's a season, which totals 175 for 7 years.  He'll reach 537 if my predicted numbers come to fruition.  I'm being conservative with my estimates, as Trout gets older his power and bat speed starts to wane, and he'll miss some time with various injuries/rest days as well. 

[Duren, Duren]

1 hour ago, aznhockeyguy said:

I did some quick paper math.  Since 2021 to last night's game, Trout is averaging a HR every 12.283 at bats.  I made some assumptions and lowered the ratio to 1 HR for every 16 at bats for the next 7 years, with Trout averaging 400 at bats per season, which is about 120 games a season, which is about 25 HR's a season, which totals 175 for 7 years.  He'll reach 537 if my predicted numbers come to fruition.  I'm being conservative with my estimates, as Trout gets older his power and bat speed starts to wane, and he'll miss some time with various injuries/rest days as well. 

Good projection. Exactly the reference for a Mantle comparison.

I look to whether he can pass Mantle and have the most homers as a center fielder. 

Mantle entered the big leagues at age 19 and played till he was 36. He played 18 years and had 536 homers. 

He had 419 homers at age 31. So quite a few more than Trout. But then his career dropped off substantially. 

During his last seven years he was hurt a lot. And actually was injury prone most of his career. He had only 3 of those 7 years with over 400 at bats. He had between 15 and 35 homers during those years, with three of them in the teens. 

After four years in a row hitting above. .300, Mantle dropped to four years in a row between .237 and .288. His last two at .245 and .237. With 22 and 18 homers respectively. His last four years came between ages 33 - 36. 

And remember too that Mantle led an unhealthy lifestyle, and was obsessed about dying young like his dad. Obviously he was never in optimum condition. His first catastrophic injury came in his first season during the World Series. So in a way it's amazing that he had the longevity and production.

So with Trout, barrinng catastrophic injuries and a severe loss of form, he should steadily progress to reach Mantle. But as with Mantle, age will affect his total performance as a ballplayer. Likely he becomes a pure DH at some point. An option Mantle never had. That should insure that he plays to or around the end of his contract. When he will be slightly older than Mantle at retirement age. But with much better medical and conditioning options than Mantle had 

 

[Duren, Duren]

A follow up to my last post. Regarding Mantle's injuries. 

Here's an article from 1956. His triple crown year. Look at all the injuries he endured between ages 19 - 24.  Eleven  injuries!  Amazing that he played so well for so much longer.

https://vault.si.com/vault/1956/07/16/that-leg-again-is-it-mickeys-fatal-flaw

[arch stanton]

If Mantle has the most home runs as a center fielder that will come as a surprise to Willie Mays

[Duren, Duren]

4 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

If Mantle has the most home runs as a center fielder that will come as a surprise to Willie Mays

They kept showing a chart on the Angel broadcast with Mantle on top. They had Griffey on it, so I assumed it was for both leagues since he played in the N.L. as well, not just the A.L. 

[arch stanton]

3 minutes ago, Duren, Duren said:

They kept showing a chart on the Angel broadcast with Mantle on top. They had Griffey on it, so I assumed it was for both leagues since he played in the N.L. as well, not just the A.L. 

Must have been AL only because Mays sits at 660 and Griffey at 630 

[gurn67]

At the end of 2019, it looked like he might have a shot at 700. Barring a catastrophic injury, he's going to get to 500. I think he ends up somewhere

Now, I think he ends up somewhere between Mantle, and Robinson depending on how long he wants to continue playing. 

If Mantle had the DH available to preserve his knees, he would have hit a lot more. Trout will have that option.

[greginpsca]

Most of Mantle's injuries were leg related. I think if the Yankees would have moved him to left field, it would have saved his legs a bit more. Even today they  don't really want Judge in cf. The Angels should seriously consider moving Trout to left to help his legs.

[REDneck]

Alright.

A lot of valid points in this thread!

I guess a better question would have been, will he hit 600 HR's for his career?

With that said, I still don't think 500 should be taken for granted.

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

On 5/25/2023 at 7:15 AM, Angelsjunky said:

 Even if the last few years as a disaster, he only needs to average 25 in 2023-28 to get there. 

Something something something AJ curse...

[daygloman]

I think it's quite probable.

As long as he stays healthy.