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Felix Peña


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Think how much worse the last two seasons would have been had he not been on the staff? 
He allowed 7 ER against OAK and 8 ER against Houston - aside from those starts, he has a 3.56 ERA on the year. 

The opener has worked beautifully for Peña as well.
As a reliever, he's sporting a 4.26 ERA in 67.2 IP with 77 strikeouts (10.2 K/9) - allowing only 55 hits, 23 walks. 
As a traditional starter, 6.55 ERA in 22 IP, 22 hits allowed, 8 BB, and only 19 strikeouts. 

As a reliever, this is the slash line for hitters their first time facing him in a game: .174/.237/.298/.534 - 9 BB, 46 K, only 7 XBH allowed in 131 plate appearances. 
As a starter, the slash line for hitters in their first appearance is .244/.311/.439/.750 in 45 PA. 

In an ideal world, I think we see Peña eventually get squeezed from the rotation by some true starters, and have him step into a true multi-inning RP/high-lev RP role, but the work he's put in for the team has been huge this year.
And of course, the no-hitter. He's become one of my favorite players to watch pitch - when he's on, he can really burn through a lineup.
 

Edited by totdprods
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4 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

I really do think that Pena may just be getting tired at this point of the season, his pitches just haven't been that crisp his last few starts. 

Pitchers seem to struggle a bit after no-hitters, if I recall. 

Dude probably put a lot of effort into keeping that night and it wouldn't surprise me if he's a little gassed still. 
Houston and the Dodgers are pretty tough teams to follow-up against the Mariners too.

June was rocky for him, but he was amazing his first 7 'starts' with an opener - 32.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 6 BB, 37 K. 
If I recall, he was literally perfect - 27 straight hitters retired - the first time through an order after he was paired with an opener. 

I do worry that the conversion will wear him down, so it would be great if we could get him through this year and pencil him in as a 2020 reliever to give him some breathing room.
Ramirez and Bridwell didn't fare very well after throwing them into the rotation.

Edited by totdprods
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For what it's worth, Pena is also someone I'd lump in with Robles and Bedrosian as someone Eppler should listen on over the next week. 

Don't deal for the sake of doing a deal, but if a team is willing to throw something worth it our way...

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2 hours ago, totdprods said:

He allowed 7 ER against OAK and 8 ER against Houston - aside from those starts, he has a 3.56 ERA on the year. 

I've never understood this logic. Sure, we could see those two starts as outliers, but if he occasionally has horrendous starts against good teams, I don't think we can ignore those starts when evaluating him.

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19 minutes ago, Taylor said:

I've never understood this logic. Sure, we could see those two starts as outliers, but if he occasionally has horrendous starts against good teams, I don't think we can ignore those starts when evaluating him.

Not ignoring them at all. All its doing is pointing out how solid he's been in the other collective starts. If he was a consistent 4.50 ERA across every game it wouldn't be worth pointing out, but he's not. He's typically very solid - and got rocked a couple times, like most SPs.

I'm not arguing that Felix Pena is a 3.50 ERA pitcher. I'm just showing that overall, he's very solid a vast majority of his starts, instead of consistently mediocre.

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39 minutes ago, Taylor said:

I've never understood this logic. Sure, we could see those two starts as outliers, but if he occasionally has horrendous starts against good teams, I don't think we can ignore those starts when evaluating him.

Here's an example...
Felix Pena has an ERA of 4.82 in 89.2 IP
Homer Bailey (as a Royal) had an ERA of 4.80 in 90 IP. 

About as identical as you could be - if Pena had one more out, they would be even.

Pena?
He allowed 3 ER or fewer in 15 'starts' - as best as could be defined, given his pairing with an opener and relatively short leash.
He allowed 4 ER twice, and allowed 7 ER and 8 ER in two games. 
Overall, very broadly, that's 15 good 'starts' vs. four bad appearances. 

Bailey?
He allowed 3 ER or fewer in 11 starts.
And then 4 or 5 ER in 6 starts, and then finally 7 ER in another start.
Overall, again, broadly, that's 11 'good starts' compared to seven poor starts.

Four less good 'starts', three more poor starts.
But the result is an almost identical ERA to innings pitched for both pitchers, even though Pena has been quite a bit more consistent.
Obviously, this can be nitpicked with consideration to innings pitched per appearance, using an opener, etc., but again, I wasn't trying to make a very specific point with Pena. Just simply stating that in 17 of 19 'starts', he's pitched pretty well. Bailey, with virtually identical ERA and IP, is short by a few, because he's consistently 'worse'.

It's not so much that I'm using those two games as outliers, just simply showing how much two games can inflate an ERA.

Edited by totdprods
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