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Angels Official Website: Trout hits 30-homer mark again, in 30 less games


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Mike Trout blasted his 30th home run of the season on Wednesday night, tying his career high from 2012 and placing him in select company. The 23-year-old center fielder became just the fifth American League hitter to have two 30-home run seasons through their age-22 seasons, joining Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, Jose Canseco and Alex Rodriguez.

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Mike Trout's numbers through the first 128 games adjusted for a full season of 162 games:

 

2012

36 HR, 99 RBI, 152 runs

 

2013

30 HR, 103 RBI, 116 runs

 

2014

38 HR, 120 RBI, 116 runs

 

 

WPA (Win Probability Added) through 128 games:

2012  5.030

2013  4.133

2014  6.179

 

You could make the case that this is his best season so far.

 

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Mike Trout's numbers through the first 128 games adjusted for a full season of 162 games:

 

2012

36 HR, 99 RBI, 152 runs

 

2013

30 HR, 103 RBI, 116 runs

 

2014

38 HR, 120 RBI, 116 runs

 

 

WPA (Win Probability Added) through 128 games:

2012  5.030

2013  4.133

2014  6.179

 

You could make the case that this is his best season so far.

"Never trust your lying eyes".

 

Its not that I believe advanced statistics are false.  However, when you don't know how it is calculated it is just hard to trust.  According to my "lying eyes" there is no way this is Trout's best season.  His BA is down.  His stolen bases are down and his strike outs are ridiculously high.  I am not saying Trout isn't the base player in baseball.  I am not saying he sucks or anything but how can you make an argument that this is his BEST season?

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MVP!

...but it'll probably be Abreu

*cough* East Coast bias *cough*

If Abreu wins it then the voters have a serious problem. Trout was penalized for playing for a crap team last year and barely got any votes.

Honestly Trout is still probably the favorite. No one else on a contending team comes close, outside of Nelly, and maybe King Felix. But I don't see Felix winning unless he just dominates the rest of the way and Seattle makes the playoffs.

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If Abreu wins it then the voters have a serious problem. Trout was penalized for playing for a crap team last year and barely got any votes.

Honestly Trout is still probably the favorite. No one else on a contending team comes close, outside of Nelly, and maybe King Felix. But I don't see Felix winning unless he just dominates the rest of the way and Seattle makes the playoffs.

B-But...East Coast bias!

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"Never trust your lying eyes".

 

Its not that I believe advanced statistics are false.  However, when you don't know how it is calculated it is just hard to trust.  According to my "lying eyes" there is no way this is Trout's best season.  His BA is down.  His stolen bases are down and his strike outs are ridiculously high.  I am not saying Trout isn't the base player in baseball.  I am not saying he sucks or anything but how can you make an argument that this is his BEST season?

WPA is the difference between a team's win expectancy before and after a given play. Based on the game situation (game score, inning, runners on base, etc) Win Probability Added isn't a mysterious black box statistic like WAR. It's super easy to understand how it works. They even have a big excel table with win expectances for every imaginable game situation and you can calculate it yourself (unlike WAR which uses subjective defensive judgment calls)

 

It's not a predictive stat in terms of judging the talent of the player, but it is a good storytelling stat in that it shows how much the player contributed to his team's chances of winning. In 2013 Trout had arguably is best statistical season in terms of context-neutral offensive stats (HR's, extra base hits etc). However, his home runs often occured early or during blowouts, and he often struck out in high leverage situations. In 2013 he was the least clutch player in baseball. In 2014 so far he has been the most clutch player in baseball. Trout hasn't performed as well offensively but he has come up big when it counts with things like walk off hits and game-tying grand slams.

 

To the extent MVP is about a rewarding player who contributes the most success to their team (not necessarily best overall player), it's a perfect stat to use.

Edited by ScottLux
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"Never trust your lying eyes".

Its not that I believe advanced statistics are false. However, when you don't know how it is calculated it is just hard to trust. According to my "lying eyes" there is no way this is Trout's best season. His BA is down. His stolen bases are down and his strike outs are ridiculously high. I am not saying Trout isn't the base player in baseball. I am not saying he sucks or anything but how can you make an argument that this is his BEST season?

His batting average being down isn't a big deal. If he had just 4 more hits this season, his BA would be at .300. If he had 10 more hits, it'd be over .310. So were talking about very small numbers when it comes to how his batting average is fluctuating from last years. I will agree that his strike outs are up. He's already struck out more this year than he did all of last year. But at the end of the day, I rather Trout is driving in runs rather than getting on base 2% more frequently. So I think a case can be made that he's having the best season of his career this year. Especially if he finishes with 35+ HRs and 120+ RBI

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