The Latest from the AngelsWin.com Blog - Joe Blanton Player Profile & Projections

[AngelsWin.com]

By Robert Cunningham - AngelsWin.com Staff Writer

2013 Outlook: So clearly Joe Blanton isn't the "Big Splash" that everyone was thinking of when the Angels acquired a pitcher during the offseason. No one is here to argue that. However, like Hanson, Joe could prove to be a "Value Splash" based on a recent history (since 2010) of increased strikeouts, with the addition of a cutter to his repetoire.

If you take a glance at Joe's numbers from 2010 until now, you'll notice a) his strikeout rate has significantly increased over his career numbers, his walk rate has declined significantly over his career numbers, c) his xFIP has decreased significantly over his career numbers, and d) his BABIP has been above his career average. What does all of this indicate?

Upon examination everything points to the cut fastball Blanton has added to his arsenal. The king of the cutter, Mariano Rivera, has used this pitch successfully to tally high K/9 rates and that helps to explain Blanton's increased strikeouts. Additionally the cutter helps to induce weak contact (including broken bats) resulting in more ground balls and less walks. On top of all this his xFIP is saying that if he wasn't giving up an unusual amount of fly balls, the last 3 years, his ERA would significantly improve and, if his BABIP wasn't so high, less of those balls that are hit wouldn't find so many holes in the infield and outfield.

Signing Blanton was a pure statistical value play by Jerry Dipoto. Although it lacks a lot of flash from a fan-perspective, the decision to sign Joe, barring injury, should prove to be a plus for the Angels pitching staff.

View the full article

[tomsred]

Nice analysis, enjoyed reading it.

[Chuck]

Tom, more on Blanton and the other starting staff on our podcast recorded tonight. Check that out! 

[Redondo]

Good read. Thanks

[Blarg]

I wonder which pitcher will fare better this season, Blanton or Santana.

 

Ervin has had such a roller coaster career and last year was well down from the previous so you almost have to think he will have that season that everyone points to and says we should have kept him.

 

Blanton on the other hand has highs and lows as well but there is a lesser degree of change between his seasons so Blanton and Santana come out as almost a wash in terms of career ERA.

 

Santana's self proclaimed home run pitcher style probably will not work in his favor in Kansas City while Blanton should reap benifits from the Marine Layer and defense the Angels provide. Edge Blanton.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

Blarg, you've become official with real photo and everything?   

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

I thought the marine layer only affected Angels hitters?

[Blarg]

Blarg, you've become official with real photo and everything?   

Chris Christie wanted his donut back.

[shellback]

guy is an innings eater. probably a krispy cremes eater too!

[Blarg]

Blanton looks pretty thin these days.

[Chuck]

Yes, Blanton lost a ton of weight in the offseason.

[Wallerrrr]

guy is an innings eater. probably a krispy cremes eater too!

 

have you seen him this spring?

[ettin]

I wonder which pitcher will fare better this season, Blanton or Santana.

 

Ervin has had such a roller coaster career and last year was well down from the previous so you almost have to think he will have that season that everyone points to and says we should have kept him.

 

Blanton on the other hand has highs and lows as well but there is a lesser degree of change between his seasons so Blanton and Santana come out as almost a wash in terms of career ERA.

 

Santana's self proclaimed home run pitcher style probably will not work in his favor in Kansas City while Blanton should reap benifits from the Marine Layer and defense the Angels provide. Edge Blanton.

It is an interesting question Blarg. Both Blanton and Santana are potential injury risks but I really think that Dipoto looked at Santana and his heavy use of the slider and thought "his arm is a walking time-bomb" and traded him. Although Blanton also is high-risk we got him for 2 years at a price that wasn't much higher than what we would have paid Santana.

 

I am "tentatively" hopeful for Blanton. I see Jerry's thought process and design (fly ball pitchers in a pitcher-friendly park with elite OF defense) behind this signing as it brings in a pitcher with potential to do well in Angels stadium at a reasonable price (based on current market rates) on a short 2-year contract. At the end of that contract there are potentially a few top-level aces on the market (Verlander? Price? Shields?) that the Angels would probably aggressively pursue in free agency.

 

On a different note I watched his outing last week and I thought his overall performance was sharp. He threw a lot of first-pitch strikes and looked pretty solid to me overall. I guess time will tell the story. Expect some home runs but I also think you should expect an improved pitching performance and results from Blanton which should help the team win games.