Two contenders to poach from...

[totdprods]

Minnesota and Houston. Gerrit Cole obviously dominates most of the offseason discussions, but I feel the Angels have a real opportunity to help their 2020 playoff chances by targeting guys from both of these teams set to hit free agency. 

Minnesota:

• Michael Pineda: 4.26 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 128 H, 24 BB, 113 K in 129 IP and 23 GS - former Yankee as well, only 31 in 2020, back from TJS
• Kyle Gibson: 4.49 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, 147 H, 45 BB, 141 K in 144 IP and 27 G/26 GS
• Jake Odorizzi: 3.57 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, 116 H, 47 BB, 137 K in 131 IP and 25 GS
• Martin Perez: 4.53 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 1.47 WHIP, 144 H, 57 BB, 116 K in 139 IP and 26 G/23 GS - MIN has an option on him still, increased velocity
• Jason Castro: .244/.327/.472/.799 with 12 HR, 23 BB, 67 K, career-low 18% CS%, strong pitch-framing
• Jonathan Schoop: .254/.303/.466/.769 with 21 2B, 18 HR - should the Angels deal MIF for pitching, Schoop could be a cheap source of power

Houston:

• Gerrit Cole: 2.75 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 0.95 WHIP, 116 H, 40 BB, 238 K in 164 IP and 26 GS - yeah, we know.
• Wade Miley: 3.31 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 134 H, 49 BB, 129 K in 152 IP and 27 GS 
• Will Harris: 1.64 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 1.03 WHIP, 38 H, 13 BB, 48 K in 49 IP and 56 G - will be 35, but extremely consistent
• Collin McHugh: 4.79 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, 61 H, 29 BB, 81 K in 73 IP and 33 G/8 GS - multi-inning RP or SP?
• Hector Rondon: 3.75 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 48 H, 17 BB, 38 K in 50 IP and 51 G
• Joe Smith: 1.69 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 0.94 WHIP, 13 H, 2 BB, 13 K in 16 IP and 18 G
• Robinson Chirinos: .236/.342/.428/.770, 18 2B, 14 HR, 42 BB, 112 K, 20% CS%
• Martin Maldonado: .210/.284/.360/.644 with 16 2B, 9 HR, 25 BB, 73 K, 30% CS%

Even leaving Cole out of the equation, this is an enormous amount of pitching and catcher talent that will hit free agency from both teams. Houston is already known for the strength of their data implementation on both sides of the ball and Minnesota is starting to show a lot of progress on their side too - they have a bright front office. Ideally, some of these players can maintain some of these improvements or bring what they've learned to their new club.

We all get caught up on Gerrit Cole, but any combination of a couple of these arms could give the Halos a real shot in the arm while also dinging their WC competition in Minnesota and their division competition in Houston. He would no doubt bring a ton of frontline talent to the team, but should the Angels not pay up or miss out on his services, signing two SPs (maybe Wheeler and Pineda?) plus a HOU reliever could stil equate a nice haul. 

Zack Wheeler, Michael Pineda, Collin McHugh, Hector Rondon, and Jason Castro would be a pretty solid offseason, and financially, might not all be that different from Cole and the other minor piece or two we sign.

[TroutAdell]

These are definitely quality FA. The problems that the Angels face are do they wait for Cole, who is a Boras client, to sign before approaching other FA pitchers or do they try to sign two starters earlier and pass on Cole. What happens if the rest of the FA pitchers wait for Cole to set the market? 

I think this is Eppler’s last chance to get it right. I wish him good luck. 

[Mark68]

3 hours ago, TroutAdell said:

These are definitely quality FA. The problems that the Angels face are do they wait for Cole, who is a Boras client, to sign before approaching other FA pitchers or do they try to sign two starters earlier and pass on Cole. What happens if the rest of the FA pitchers wait for Cole to set the market? 

I think this is Eppler’s last chance to get it right. I wish him good luck. 

[Second Base]

I think the premise of this post is flawed, though it still makes for an entertaining read, mostly because @totdprods provided some solid detail.

But signing free agents away from teams rarely makes the team that lost that player worse. Sometimes, but not typically. The Angels seem like they'll sign Gerrit Cole for a lot of money, but I am not convinced that will make the Astros worse by much. They still have Verlander, and they weren't and got Greinke, particularly for that reason (as well as this year's playoffs). Furthermore, Houston has an impressive collection of upside arms in AAA and will be bringing back Lance McCullers next year. 

The Astros will likely be worse next year, but I think the reason why is more complex than simply another team signed a good player of theirs. I think it has more to do with the fact that FIP suggests their pitchers have been quite lucky this year, other teams will have improved across the board, Verlander and Greinke will be another year older, Altuve's decline will continue etc....

But when you're so far above the competition in your own division, like the Astros are, getting worse simply means winning the division be 3 games instead of 10-15. 

[Docwaukee]

11 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I think the premise of this post is flawed, though it still makes for an entertaining read, mostly because @totdprods provided some solid detail.

But signing free agents away from teams rarely makes the team that lost that player worse. Sometimes, but not typically. The Angels seem like they'll sign Gerrit Cole for a lot of money, but I am not convinced that will make the Astros worse by much. They still have Verlander, and they weren't and got Greinke, particularly for that reason (as well as this year's playoffs). Furthermore, Houston has an impressive collection of upside arms in AAA and will be bringing back Lance McCullers next year. 

The Astros will likely be worse next year, but I think the reason why is more complex than simply another team signed a good player of theirs. I think it has more to do with the fact that FIP suggests their pitchers have been quite lucky this year, other teams will have improved across the board, Verlander and Greinke will be another year older, Altuve's decline will continue etc....

But when you're so far above the competition in your own division, like the Astros are, getting worse simply means winning the division be 3 games instead of 10-15. 

if we finish within 3 games of the division next year, I'll be fairly happy.  

Cole is a 5 WAR pitcher.  Losing him makes them worse.  I'll predict right now that greinke has an mediocre year at best.  But as you said, for other reasons I still think they'll be the favorites to win the division.  

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

I think the premise of this post is flawed, though it still makes for an entertaining read, mostly because @totdprods provided some solid detail.

But signing free agents away from teams rarely makes the team that lost that player worse. Sometimes, but not typically. The Angels seem like they'll sign Gerrit Cole for a lot of money, but I am not convinced that will make the Astros worse by much. They still have Verlander, and they weren't and got Greinke, particularly for that reason (as well as this year's playoffs). Furthermore, Houston has an impressive collection of upside arms in AAA and will be bringing back Lance McCullers next year. 

The Astros will likely be worse next year, but I think the reason why is more complex than simply another team signed a good player of theirs. I think it has more to do with the fact that FIP suggests their pitchers have been quite lucky this year, other teams will have improved across the board, Verlander and Greinke will be another year older, Altuve's decline will continue etc....

But when you're so far above the competition in your own division, like the Astros are, getting worse simply means winning the division be 3 games instead of 10-15. 

I guess I should specify, it's not necessarily that by losing Player X, HOU/MIN will get measurably worse, but rather it means they have to spend or use something to replace that player - it either thins them out by promoting internal options (which remove them from being used as trade bait) or they have to spend something (money or prospects) to replace that player. As you mentioned, that might mean they improve upon that player - but there's still a cost associated in that, and with so many players potentially available for both teams, there's good opportunity for the Angels to strain those teams a little more by aggressively pursuing a few as targets.

Even incrementally eating away at Houston's depth is a benefit.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

if we finish within 3 games of the division next year, I'll be fairly happy.  

Cole is a 5 WAR pitcher.  Losing him makes them worse.  I'll predict right now that greinke has an mediocre year at best.  But as you said, for other reasons I still think they'll be the favorites to win the division.  

I think we will, yes. But as I said, the reason why we will finish that close will be more complex than subtracting Gerrit Cole from their rotation and adding him to ours. Adell and Marsh will arrive (assuming Marsh isn't traded), Rengifo, Thaiss and Walsh are all likely to be significantly better after their first go around in the league. Cole, ________, and Ohtani will all be major additions. Canning, Barria, Suarez and Sandoval are all likely going to be better than they were this year. Heaney is looking like a different pitcher. Middleton and Anderson will likely both be healthier than this. 

There's just a lot to like about the Angels in 2020, though I'm likely preaching to the choir here.

Edited August 29, 2019 by Second Base

[Second Base]

16 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I guess I should specify, it's not necessarily that by losing Player X, HOU/MIN will get measurably worse, but rather it means they have to spend or use something to replace that player - it either thins them out by promoting internal options (which remove them from being used as trade bait) or they have to spend something (money or prospects) to replace that player. As you mentioned, that might mean they improve upon that player - but there's still a cost associated in that, and with so many players potentially available for both teams, there's good opportunity for the Angels to strain those teams a little more by aggressively pursuing a few as targets.

Even incrementally eating away at Houston's depth is a benefit.

I don't think it's going to be incremental. I think it's going to sudden and deliberate. We're going to be right on their ass the whole way.

[TroutAdell]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

I don't think it's going to be incremental. I think it's going to sudden and deliberate. We're going to be right on their ass the whole way.

Don’t discount Oakland, they have a solid club and Beane knows talent. Houston’s core is in its prime. That aren’t going to lose Cole and possibly Miley and McHugh and not add pitching. 

This is a hugely important off season for Eppler and his team. I feel this is their last chance to prove themselves. Based on past performances  I am not as optimistic as most here.

[totdprods]

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

I don't think it's going to be incremental. I think it's going to sudden and deliberate. We're going to be right on their ass the whole way.

I mean incremental as in the Angels plucking McHugh, Machete, and driving the price up on Harris, leading the Astros to commit an extra year to a 35-yr old RP, even if they don’t get Cole, could be a way to death-by-1000-papercut it with them.