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    • Optimism:  The math version
      This may not be everyone's cup of tea.  If you don't have interest in more advanced stats, then look away.  This exercise in only meant to provide a little insight into the future and how things might not be what you think or what you see.  Granted, the outcome of each game is always going to be what's most important because wins and losses are what ultimately what determine whether you make the playoffs.  But sometimes, especially in a 60 game season, the outcomes can be severely impacted by a small sample size and what was 'expected' may not actually align with what happened.  

      So with that being said, I give you 'baseruns'.  This has been mentioned in several threads on the board but I thought it might worthy of it's own discussion.  Again, take it for what you think it's worth, but I find it valuable in helping to assess the future.  

      Here is a link to how baseruns work:

      https://library.fangraphs.com/features/baseruns/

      It a nutshell, it's an exercise of what should have happened vs. what we know happened.  

      The current AL WEST standings would be as follows if things went as expected.  

      Oakland 29-25 .539
      Angels 30-26 .528
      Astros 27-28 .490
      Mariners 22-33 .403
      Rangers 20-35 .370

      So the Angels and Oakland would be in a dogfight for the division title going into the last 4 games with Houston having and outside shot.  The Angels have 5 less wins than they should and the A's have four more wins than they should.  

      The Angels should have scored 5.04 runs per games vs. the 4.96 runs per game they did score.  Not a huge difference.  

      They should have allowed 4.75 runs per game and have allowed 5.32.  A big difference and likely related to poor defense as many have mentioned with @Inside Pitch ringing the bell on this very early.  

      So what do I think this means?  

      To me, it means that we are probably better than we all might think.  Still not great or without needed upgrades but we could improve our record more quickly that it might appear.  What it also means to me is that the A's probably aren't as good as their record shows and that the division is truly wide open for next year.  

      We very well could have an opportunity here to open a window of success for the next few years without needing an act of God for it to happen.  

       
      • 10 replies
    • Gameday Thread: Padres vs Angels (9/23/2020)
      Gameday Thread: Padres vs Angels (9/23/2020)
      • 84 replies
    • Joel Sherman: Dave Dombroski a name that comes up voluminously with Angels GM job
      https://nypost.com/2020/09/21/steve-cohens-mets-decision-angels-dombrowski-interest-sherman/

      Just posting the article that @khouse referenced in another thread
      • 72 replies
    • Revising Active Players and the Hall of Fame
      A topic that resurfaces every so often; I felt like revisiting it. As I see it:

      ELIGIBLE (10+ Years)

      Definites (already in, if they packed it in right now): Pujols, Trout, Cabrera, Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke, Cano.

      Maybe-to-Probably (needs to pad stats, or wait a bit for induction): Votto, Molina, Posey, Longoria, Donaldson, Goldschmidt, Stanton, Freeman, Cruz, Altuve, McCutchen, Strasburg.

      Hall of Very Good (no cigar, but good career): Upton, Pedroia, Braun, Gardner, Hamels, Lester, Bumgarner, Wainwright.

      Of the above, the middle category could go either way, depending upon the player. Some of those guys will be voted in years after their five-year eligibility, others never.

      NOT ELIGIBLE (<10 Years)

      Definite (once get to 10 years, barring catastrophe) : Betts.

      Maybe-to-Probably (has a decent or better chance, but too soon/need to see how career goes): Machado, Harper, deGrom, Rendon, Arenado, Lindor, Ramirez, Sale, Bieber, Yelich, and lots of younger guys.

      Mookie is a great player and will make it once he earns eligibility in 2023, when he'll be entering his age 30 season with over 50 WAR. If Trout is Mantle, Betts is DiMaggio - he's that good.

      Probably missing some guys that deserve mention.
      • 28 replies
    • Seven Risers and Fallers this year
      Which Angels have risen and fallen in terms of "stock value" and the degree to which they've changed their outlook for next year, in this short season thus far?

      Risers

      1. Dylan Bundy - He gives the Angels a good #3, borderline #2. Too bad he only has one year of control left, but still: At the least he bridges the gap to Reid Detmers, Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano, Garret Stallings, and other young pitchers in the low minors. Dylan could be a nice trade deadline chip if the Angels suck again in 2021.

      2. Jared Walsh - Finally: A productive bat from the farm system. We can hope that he solves first base for the next half decade.

      3. Max Stassi - After a poor showing in 2019, he seems to be putting the promise he showed in 2018 together.

      4. Jaime Barria - He's making the most of his opportunity. Why didn't he get much of a chance last year, again?

      5. Mike Mayers - We can be hesitantly optimistic that those gaudy peripherals are for real.

      6. Andrew Heaney - Quietly pitching the best he has as an Angel. Ditto what was said re: Bundy. He is, at the least, a bridge pitcher to the younger cohorts, and possibly a trade chip next July.

      7. Taylor Ward - Overshadowed by Walsh, Ward could be the starting right fielder next season, at least until Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh are ready for big boy baseball.

       

      Fallers

      1. Shohei Ohtani - The question mark just gets bigger; not only is his arm unknown, but his bat disappeared. The talent is there, though, so we can hope for--at least--a return to hitting form, but there's no way around the fact what a loss 2020 has been for Shohei.

      2. Jo Adell - Jo should spend most/all of 2021 in AAA. We can still like his long-term potential, but the shine has definitely dimmed.

      3. Ty Buttrey/Keynan Middleton/Hansel Robles (take your pick) - These were the guys that were supposed to anchor the rotation, but all have been poor to terrible.

      4. Luis Rengifo - I'm still hopeful for the future, but not the step forward we hoped for.

      5. Jose Suarez - Ouch.

      6. Griffin Canning - He's been OK, I guess, but was hoping for more; no progress from last year, but we can still expect improvement given the fact that he's still only pitched 140.2 major league innings.

      7. Patrick Sandoval - I have faith he'll come around, but a lost year for Sandoval when some of us (me) pencilled him in as a darkhorse to surprise and be a rotation workhorse.

      I don't count Matt Andriese, Julio Teheran, Jason Castro, etc, because they were just one-year rentals anyway (other than Andriese). The rest have overall held steady, for the most part. Justin Upton looked like a faller but has stabilized. There are some questions with Mike Trout's defense, but he tends to fluctuate and hopefully will work on it - although a shift to LF might be in order in the not too distant future.

       
      • 18 replies
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