Our Picks

We've had prediction threads, we've had offseason wishlist threads, we've had what you want to see happen, what you think we'll see. Almost every thread recently has devolved into an 'offseason plan' thread at some point.

But what I'm hoping for this thread though is (for the time being) no discussion, no debate, no arguments for or against, just a very simple list what you would do this offseason if you were GM in a quick, easy format.

The idea being we can revisit this later and discuss midseason/next offseason and see how things are going for everyone’s respective plans.

You can edit/revise your plans at three different times:

When players accept/reject Qualifiying Offers. Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman likely figure to be on many plans, and there’s a chance neither hit the open market, as we saw with Odorizzi last winter. I believe we should know this within two weeks or so, so you can also wait. 


When Trevor Bauer signs, since he will likely be on a majority of submitted plans - here’s an opportunity to pivot if he signs elsewhere.


Around Dec. 2nd, 8pm ET, at the non-tender deadline. A significant number of free agents will be added, some of which could alter plans significantly. 


In addition, I will potentially bump the thread once or twice this winter with an option to edit. The first will be if we learn of a specific amount from Arte/the FO is intending to spend this offseason, and the second will be late into the offseason, perhaps even right before Spring Training, in order to allow any last minute bargains. 

When this happens, please edit your post but keep original plan detailed still. Strikethrough the text or write out your edited plan. 

As of now, we’ll assume the Angels can add up to $30m in salary to the 2021 payroll. It could be less, could be more. 

Overall, try to be as specific as possible when it comes to your money offered or players involved in trade. There are links below to help us work within a standardized set of trade and contract values. 

Feel free to offer contingencies, i.e, pivoting to Gausman if Bauer doesn’t sign, but try to limit yourself to a couple options, maybe a Plan B or C, for the sake of the exercise. 

Think outside the box - signing Bauer or Stroman are nice ideas, but names like Dylan Bundy, Mike Mayers, and Max Stassi were some of the biggest additions to the 2020 Angels over their 2019 counterparts. No one saw that coming - and that’s part of the fun. So, go out on a limb here or there.

A few handy links to reference in forming your plans:

List of free agents can be found here. 


Determining contract terms (values/lengths): https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-50-free-agents/


Determining trade values (approximate, standardized): https://www.baseballtradevalues.com


The 2020 thread and Results thread 


If applicable, using the projected arbitration salaries from MLBTR.

https://nypost.com/2020/10/22/yankees-could-get-challenge-from-angels-for-didi-gregorius-reunion/

Let's discuss all of the postseason games, news and notes here! 

Here's the bracket.


I'm pulling for the Rays, White Sox and Indians in the AL and Marlins, Reds and the Padres in the NL. 

Let's go!!!!!

We all know about Fletcher, Rengifo, Jones or Barreto but I'd like halos go after Ceasar Hernandez. Can get him on 1 year deal 6 to 8 million. Good top of lineup player with a lifetime 277 avg and 352 obp. Fletcher to SS.

Do any Angels get it? Simmons is the only one I see being offered one.

Jared Walsh made the All-Rookie Baseball America team

Crazy thought...

With teams starting to report that they are cutting some payroll for 2021 I wonder if this gives Arte a different feeling by facts we can confirm:
1: Arte Moreno basically stole the stadium and surrounding acres from Anaheim for less than half the price of Mike Trout. We thought $325M was cheap but he got it for $150M. (money saver/money multiplier)
2: Mike Trout is tired of losing and as Carpino said.... they feel it "Every day". So you really think payroll will go the opposite way?
3: Despite his over "ownering" tendencies, we can all agree that Arte Moreno wants to win. Period. AND he will do whatever it takes. Huge contracts to Pujols, Hamilton, Wilson, Trout, Rendon, Upton
4: Back to the stadium deal. He knows he won the price when it came to buying the area. Down the road, his pockets will double. Easily. No matter what hard times we are in right now. He's sitting on a soon to be gold mine.
5: Arte knows he's getting older and that's likely making him slowly more impatient. Not much time left to see a winner 

Does the fact that owners have lost revenue impact this FA class? Sure. Perhaps bigger names (Bauer, etc) would have to take smaller (kinda) contracts. Could be a lot of 1yr deals.
Given Arte will be paying Ausmus, Maddon, Eppler and the new GM in 2021 AND he's put that on himself during the pandemic makes me think he can care less about a little extra cost. 
He didn't wait till the 2022 season for Ausmus and Eppler to get off the books. I don't expect Moreno to shy away from impact deals during the Winter Meetings in the next few months. 

As optimistic as this is, he's in win now mode (shocker). Even if he has to eat some debt the next few seasons I doubt it will hurt him. Once the plans for the Platinum Triangle start he's going to start racking in tons (more) of revenue.
Don't sleep on Arte. He's one hell of a businessman and he isn't afraid of what the economy did this year. The Angels are about to enter a panic mode to get Trout in the playoffs. Expect some changes in the front office and roster and expect the Angels to head into the 2020 Winter Meetings with one goal. Win and win everything in 2021. Period. 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/

There are some pretty decent arms to pair up with Bundy, Canning, Heaney & maybe even Barria and Ohtani. 

How about Stroman, Gausman and closer Hendriks instead of going all in on Bauer and done?

Here are the available closers/setup men available. 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/closer/

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/relief-pitcher/

It seems Theo Epstein just may be a free of his duties with the Cubs as soon as this winter.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/cubs-president-theo-epstein-to-discuss-future-with-team-no-extension-expected-per-report/

When the 2 sides meet as planned, there's the possible outcome of either him playing out his contract through next season, or opting out this winter.

I get that we have a president of the team who's been in place for awhile. I get that its a big if, but we can dream a bit of the possibilities, eh?

 

I saw the figure of $40 million to spend this offseason, with all things tolled. Let's have a bit of fun - how would you spend that money? For this we'll still to AAVs, so don't worry about length of contracts. 

Below is a list of estimated 2021 salaries; each player could go for more or less, but I tried to figure out basic groupings of players and an average value for each. Feel free to adjust as you like it, but try to be realistic. These numbers are just a starting point and guesstimate.

$35M Ace starter: Bauer.

$22M Elite position player: Realmuto.

$20M Impact position players: Ozuna, Semien, LeMahieu, Springer.

$15M #3 starters: Stroman, Tanaka, Gausman.

$15M Good position players: Gregorius, Simmons, Cruz, Brantley, Schoop.

$12M questionable/bargain #3s: Ray, Odorizzi, Walker, Paxton, Porcello.

$12M elite reliever: Hendricks.

$10M #4 starters: Minor, Smyly, Milone, Wainwright, Quintana.

$10M solid position players: Pederson, Miller, Turner, La Stella, Cespedes, Hernandez, McCann, Profar, Puig, Villar, Grossman, Molina, Pillar, Kipnis, Galvis, Bradley Jr.

$9M good relievers: Treinen, Colome, Greene, Clippard, Rosenthal, McGee, Soria, Yates.

$8 #5/bargain starters: Richards, Chatwood, Hill, Fiers, Anderson, Cahill.

$6M platoon/good bench players: Cervelli, Flowers, Castro, Avila.

$6M solid relievers: Hunter, Wilson, Bass, May, Holland.

 

And others. I'm sure there's lots of quibbling with price and categorization, but do your best.

 

Before we embark on another offseason, I decided to pull up this thread from last October, and see who here might have built the best team. 

A few assumptions and notes before I start posting up the details:

Since it’s fairly obvious the Angels were going to do all they could to sign Cole and pivot to Rendon as a back-up, I will substitute Rendon in place of Cole as a consolation. Virtually everyone had one or the other listed anyways. 


I will try to make your plan work, as close as realistically possible. If you had Wheeler for 5/$100m and there was arguably enough money to match Philly, I’ll help you get it done. I will err on the side of optimism and good fortune, while still trying to judge things fairly.


I will be using 2020 production for every player, Angels or otherwise, regardless of the fact that it’s impossible to say they would have performed better or worse had they played here or for a full season. Suspend belief a little bit. This is supposed to be fun.


The Angels wound up adding about $47m in 2021 payroll, so I will use that as a ‘limit’, taking into account any real-life (or hypothetically reasonable) backloading of contracts.


If the terms you offered for a FA were not ballpark, they will not have signed here, and we’ll use the next best internal option from the existing Angels (i.e., failing to sign Moustakas for 2B, so Fletcher instead).


Similar approach for trades, though it can be harder to gauge. I will begrudgingly use the Baseball Trade Value Simulator (www.baseballtradevalues.com) to scope out some of the feasibility of deals proposed, since it will judge all deals through the same values – though the values will be off since they’re current, not based on last year’s value when these were created. If I do this thread again this year, I’ll be more mindful and get values now. 


I will include more minor acquisitions such as Mayers, Barnes, and Andriese if your plans didn’t bring in players who would have prevented them from being acquired (i.e., signing four relievers) in the final team. 


This won’t be perfect and is just meant to be fun. Perhaps each year it can become a little more scientific and serious. So, yes, it’s silly to think a player’s production would have been identical or even similar here, but for the sake of the exercise, let that go.


Any other justifications or notes will be added in each of the results posted.

Gameday Thread: Dodgers vs Angels (9/25/2020)

This may not be everyone's cup of tea.  If you don't have interest in more advanced stats, then look away.  This exercise in only meant to provide a little insight into the future and how things might not be what you think or what you see.  Granted, the outcome of each game is always going to be what's most important because wins and losses are what ultimately what determine whether you make the playoffs.  But sometimes, especially in a 60 game season, the outcomes can be severely impacted by a small sample size and what was 'expected' may not actually align with what happened.  

So with that being said, I give you 'baseruns'.  This has been mentioned in several threads on the board but I thought it might worthy of it's own discussion.  Again, take it for what you think it's worth, but I find it valuable in helping to assess the future.  

Here is a link to how baseruns work:

https://library.fangraphs.com/features/baseruns/

It a nutshell, it's an exercise of what should have happened vs. what we know happened.  

The current AL WEST standings would be as follows if things went as expected.  

Oakland 29-25 .539
Angels 30-26 .528
Astros 27-28 .490
Mariners 22-33 .403
Rangers 20-35 .370

So the Angels and Oakland would be in a dogfight for the division title going into the last 4 games with Houston having and outside shot.  The Angels have 5 less wins than they should and the A's have four more wins than they should.  

The Angels should have scored 5.04 runs per games vs. the 4.96 runs per game they did score.  Not a huge difference.  

They should have allowed 4.75 runs per game and have allowed 5.32.  A big difference and likely related to poor defense as many have mentioned with @Inside Pitch ringing the bell on this very early.  

So what do I think this means?  

To me, it means that we are probably better than we all might think.  Still not great or without needed upgrades but we could improve our record more quickly that it might appear.  What it also means to me is that the A's probably aren't as good as their record shows and that the division is truly wide open for next year.  

We very well could have an opportunity here to open a window of success for the next few years without needing an act of God for it to happen.  

 

Gameday Thread: Padres vs Angels (9/23/2020)

https://nypost.com/2020/09/21/steve-cohens-mets-decision-angels-dombrowski-interest-sherman/

Just posting the article that @khouse referenced in another thread

A topic that resurfaces every so often; I felt like revisiting it. As I see it:

ELIGIBLE (10+ Years)

Definites (already in, if they packed it in right now): Pujols, Trout, Cabrera, Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke, Cano.

Maybe-to-Probably (needs to pad stats, or wait a bit for induction): Votto, Molina, Posey, Longoria, Donaldson, Goldschmidt, Stanton, Freeman, Cruz, Altuve, McCutchen, Strasburg.

Hall of Very Good (no cigar, but good career): Upton, Pedroia, Braun, Gardner, Hamels, Lester, Bumgarner, Wainwright.

Of the above, the middle category could go either way, depending upon the player. Some of those guys will be voted in years after their five-year eligibility, others never.

NOT ELIGIBLE (<10 Years)

Definite (once get to 10 years, barring catastrophe) : Betts.

Maybe-to-Probably (has a decent or better chance, but too soon/need to see how career goes): Machado, Harper, deGrom, Rendon, Arenado, Lindor, Ramirez, Sale, Bieber, Yelich, and lots of younger guys.

Mookie is a great player and will make it once he earns eligibility in 2023, when he'll be entering his age 30 season with over 50 WAR. If Trout is Mantle, Betts is DiMaggio - he's that good.

Probably missing some guys that deserve mention.

Which Angels have risen and fallen in terms of "stock value" and the degree to which they've changed their outlook for next year, in this short season thus far?

Risers

1. Dylan Bundy - He gives the Angels a good #3, borderline #2. Too bad he only has one year of control left, but still: At the least he bridges the gap to Reid Detmers, Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano, Garret Stallings, and other young pitchers in the low minors. Dylan could be a nice trade deadline chip if the Angels suck again in 2021.

2. Jared Walsh - Finally: A productive bat from the farm system. We can hope that he solves first base for the next half decade.

3. Max Stassi - After a poor showing in 2019, he seems to be putting the promise he showed in 2018 together.

4. Jaime Barria - He's making the most of his opportunity. Why didn't he get much of a chance last year, again?

5. Mike Mayers - We can be hesitantly optimistic that those gaudy peripherals are for real.

6. Andrew Heaney - Quietly pitching the best he has as an Angel. Ditto what was said re: Bundy. He is, at the least, a bridge pitcher to the younger cohorts, and possibly a trade chip next July.

7. Taylor Ward - Overshadowed by Walsh, Ward could be the starting right fielder next season, at least until Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh are ready for big boy baseball.

 

Fallers

1. Shohei Ohtani - The question mark just gets bigger; not only is his arm unknown, but his bat disappeared. The talent is there, though, so we can hope for--at least--a return to hitting form, but there's no way around the fact what a loss 2020 has been for Shohei.

2. Jo Adell - Jo should spend most/all of 2021 in AAA. We can still like his long-term potential, but the shine has definitely dimmed.

3. Ty Buttrey/Keynan Middleton/Hansel Robles (take your pick) - These were the guys that were supposed to anchor the rotation, but all have been poor to terrible.

4. Luis Rengifo - I'm still hopeful for the future, but not the step forward we hoped for.

5. Jose Suarez - Ouch.

6. Griffin Canning - He's been OK, I guess, but was hoping for more; no progress from last year, but we can still expect improvement given the fact that he's still only pitched 140.2 major league innings.

7. Patrick Sandoval - I have faith he'll come around, but a lost year for Sandoval when some of us (me) pencilled him in as a darkhorse to surprise and be a rotation workhorse.

I don't count Matt Andriese, Julio Teheran, Jason Castro, etc, because they were just one-year rentals anyway (other than Andriese). The rest have overall held steady, for the most part. Justin Upton looked like a faller but has stabilized. There are some questions with Mike Trout's defense, but he tends to fluctuate and hopefully will work on it - although a shift to LF might be in order in the not too distant future.

 

Gopher Ball Heaney has returned.

🤮

I dont have the lineups

 

*You do now - John Taylor

Could Taylor Ward be answer for RF next year. We all know the struggles of Jo Adell should Ward get rest of starts in RF? 

He's still capable, still able to catch up to FBs.  His average exit velocity, hard hit rates, and stat cast data is right at or above where they were when the Angels acquired him.  He handled his struggles like a pro and has come out of it looking very much like vintage Upton.

This isn't about being right or wrong or liking or hating a guy.  Its about the Angels needing him to be the player he's been if they stand any chance of competing while he's under contract.

I'm relieved LF isn't one of the things this team needs to worry about going into the off-season.

Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Diamondbacks (9/16/2020)

Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Diamondbacks (9/15/2020)

The stats say....

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&year=2020&team=LAA&range=year&min=q&pos=&roles=&viz=show&sort=5&sortDir=desc

This is pretty much why the Angels have failed so miserably this season. 

While we want to pick apart the starting rotation, they've actually been pretty decent. Good enough to win a hell of a lot more ballgames if the defense played better and the Angels performed better with RISP. 

I think if you ranked the team's woes in order it would go something like this:

1. Defense.

2. Hitting w/ RISP

3. Bullpen

4. Joe Maddon

5. Two-out runs given up by pitching staff