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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Astros (4-25-2021)


 
  • 180 replies

Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Astros (4-23-2021)
Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Astros (4-23-2021)
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Astros (4-22-2021)
Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Astros (4-22-2021)
  • 325 replies

AngelsWin.com Today: Mike Trout and the 8 WAR Season
By @Angelsjunky, AngelsWin.com Contributor

I like to find new angles on the greatness of Mike Trout - not hard to do, but always satisfying. Here's something tasty for your enjoyment. I'm going to be focusing on 8 WAR seasons. Why 8 WAR? Well, it represents a level beyond just garden variety superstardom. Generally speaking, 8 WAR is either a career year for a superstar or a good peak year for an inner circle Hall of Famer. In other words, it is a good benchmark for a truly great season.

What is 8 WAR? 

As you can read here, below 2 WAR are bench players and scrubs; from 2-4 WAR is the range from solid to good regulars; and 4 and above are various shades of stardom, from borderline stars to MVP candidates. In any given year, the best player in the game is somewhere around 8 WAR or higher; only rarely is the leader below 8 WAR, with the last two both from Jeff Bagwell with 7.8 WAR, in 1999 and 1994. 

In most years there are two or three players with an 8 WAR or higher; some years less (or none), and some more (the most 8 WAR players in a single year was six, which happened three times: in 1912, 1961, and 1997). The point being, with an average of two or three a year, an 8 WAR player is a candidate for the best player in the game and a possible MVP. 

It is also worth pointing out that WAR is less volatile than it used to be, with fewer high outliers. If we ignore Barry Bonds for a moment, the last position player to reach 11 WAR was Joe Morgan in 1975, which also happened to be the only position player season over 10 WAR in the 1970s. Including Bonds, from 1970 to the present there have only been thirteen 10 WAR seasons: five by Bonds (including one pre-roids in 1993 when he had 10.5), two by Trout, one each by Joe Morgan, Cal Ripken, Rickey Henderson, Alex Rodriguez, Buster Posey, and Mookie Betts.

Meaning, super-high WAR seasons (above 10) are very rare, occurring--on average--only once every four years or so over the last half century.
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Rangers (4-21-2021)
Rengifo and Quintana redemption game! LFG!!! 
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Rangers (4-20-2021)
Lineups - April 20.pdf
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Rangers (4-19-2021)
Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Rangers (4-19-2021)
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Twins (4-16-2021)
Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Twins (4-16-2021)
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Royals (4-14-2021)
Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Royals (4-14-2021)
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Royals (4-13-2021)
Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Royals (4-13-2021)
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Royals (4-12-2021)
Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Royals (4-12-2021)
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Blue Jays (4-10-2021)
Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Blue Jays (4-10-2021)
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Blue Jays (4-9-2021)
Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Blue Jays (4-9-2021)
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A Week in Review: Inside the Numbers
Interesting numbers..

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=1&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=20,d

Everyone who would have guessed Quintana had the best FIP among the SPs, raise your hand?   

The Babip numbers for some of these guys are what you'd expect for small sample sizes -- all over the place.  As a team they have been totally normal for what you'd expect over a full 162 games (.301) -- but that ranks as the 10th highest in MLB which means compared to the rest of MLB they have been a tad unlucky early on. The HR/FB rates sort of indicate some bad luck or rather, fluke outcomes given what the HR/9 is.   The team K/9 rates are great, the BB/9 rate have been league average, the team GB rate has been elite.   Basically the early indications are that for the most part the pitching is likely to improve and if there is any truth to the thinking that inducing GBs and piling up K totals = future success the pitching staff has a lot going for it.  That HR/FB has basically been the issue.  Im guessing that figure will come down as they face less Astros, Jays and CWS hitters.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=8,d

Offensively...  A lot to like there.   K rates are low, walk rates are too but again -- the level of competition has been good.   Defensively -- despite the spurt of ugly errors for a couple games there the Angels have 3 defensive runs saved, behind only the Tigers with 5.  (3 teams tied with 3).

Basically, there really hasn't been anything flukey good early on and there are indications things will get better in some key areas. 

It's been a fun first 7 games.
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Blue Jays (4-8-2021)
Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Blue Jays (4-8-2021)
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Astros (4-6-2021) Rojas starting at 3B - Walsh in RF
Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Astros (4-6-2021) - Rojas starting at 3B - Walsh in RF
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Astros (4-5-2021)
Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Astros (4-5-2021)
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Gameday Thread: White Sox Vs Angels 4/4/2021 (ESPN Broadcast - Ohtani on the mound, batting second!!)
SP Dylan Cease vs. SP Shohei Ohtani
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. White Sox (4-3-2021)
Angels vs. White Sox GDT 04/03/21
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. White Sox (4-2-2021)
Gameday Thread: Angels vs. White Sox (4-2-2021)
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. White Sox (Opening Day 4-1-2021)
Gameday Thread: Angels vs. White Sox (Opening Day 4-1-2021)
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Fangraphs bullish on Angels
The staff predictions, that is.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-2021-staff-predictions/

15 of 38 think they'll win the division, and 23 think they'll at least get a wildcard.

Yes, that is validation.
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AngelsWin Today: Three Bold Predictions for the Angels in 2021
By David Saltzer, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer

Baseball is back!

While the stands may not be entirely full of fans, the players will be taking the field and we have games to watch. I’m excited! It’s been a long year, and springtime and baseball both bring hope and joy for a new and better year.

In the past, I’ve never actually published predictions for the Angels at the start of the season. Call me superstitious, but it’s like talking about a no-hitter during a game. I’ve always been a bit too worried that I’d jinx the team if I published a prediction.

But, since the last 12 months have been anything but usual, this year, I’ve decided to break that streak and try something different. I’m going to write my predictions for the team. If they come true, it’ll make for a thrilling year for fans and the team. And, throughout the season, it will be great to follow these predictions to see if they come true.

So, here they are:

Bold Prediction #1: The Angels will have 4 players finish in top 15 vote recipients for the AL MVP Award

Okay, at first this seems a little bit easy with a lineup that features Trout and Rendon. But that’s just half of the prediction. I still need 2 more players to receive votes and finish in the top 15 recipients. Considering how many good players there are in the league, and, that there are 15 teams in the mix, that is a tall order. Throw in the possibility for ties in the voting, and it is an extremely bold prediction.
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Dodgers (Spring Training Finale - 3/30/2021) Quintana on the Bump!
Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Dodgers (Spring Training Finale - 3/30/2021) Quintana on the Bump!
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Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Dodgers (3/29/2021) Ohtani on the Bump - Batting second!
Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Dodgers (3/29/2021) Ohtani on the Bump - Batting second!
  • 152 replies

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