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Gameday Thread: Angels @ Reds 3/2/21 (5:05PM PST start)

Images from the 2002 World Champion Anaheim Angels 

Only 5 innings today.


 

Does anyone else feel like this is going to be an annual story across multiple national media outlets until Mike Trout gets a ring?

 

And so it begins! 


 

Looking into the numbers, Canning and Bundy have shown both success on the mound and solid K rates based on slider & offspeed usage. 

Let's take a deeper look. 

Griffin Canning

Canning had a solid 2019 debut thanks mostly to a strong whiff rate on his slider, but then came the elbow trouble in spring training in 2020 that saw him throw the pitch less (2019: 29.2% vs. just 20.4% in 2020) and with lower velocity, which also resulted in a lower whiff rate on the pitch. The slider just didn't have same effectiveness, and the rest of his arsenal wasn't good enough to compensate due to a lower FB velo early on. 

That could have been a product of him not throwing his pitches at 100% due to fear of injuring his elbow to the point of requiring TJ surgery or because he felt just enough pain to fully let it loose. Canning mostly likely needed time to regain trust in his elbow because late in the year, he started snapping off that slider again, pairing it with an improved curveball for maximum effect & see a rise in his FB velo.

Canning's swinging-strike rate jumped from 9.9 in his first six starts to 14.5 in his final five, and with it, his K/9 jumped from 7.5 to 10.4.

Here is a good example of Canning late in the season against a good hitting Padres team where he generated a bunch of whiffs off his slider & an increase in fastball velo hitting 95 MPH throughout the game -- when he was 89-93 early on in the season. 


Dylan Bundy

You didn't have to be even a casual observer to know that Dylan Bundy would fall apart in 2020 when he didn't have his slider and/or changeup working.

This is quite the read..

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2021/02/24/jarred-kelenic-mariners-prospect-service-time-manipulation/4568463001/
Dipoto apologized to the Mariners’ players before their first full-squad workout Monday for Mather’s comments, insisting it did not reflect the way the organization truly felt about their players.

How was it received?

“Strange,’’ Kelenic said. “It was literally like someone farted in church. That is the exact expression on everybody’s face.’’...

 

So the Andrelton Simmons situation really hit home for me. I won't get into details about my personal situation as many already know it and this thread isn't about me anyway. I just figured this was a discussion worth having.

Joe Maddon said he didn't realize what Simmons was going through, and it got me thinking about every other player in baseball, and professional sports in general, really. It's not something that's ever really visible. You don't look depressed. You can look sad, sure, but depression doesn't have a face. It's not easy to recognize.

Nobody knows I have depression unless I tell them. And pulling down your guard like that can be an extremely difficult thing to do. It's easier to just suffer on the inside and make people think everything is fine. Maddon said Simmons was "upbeat" when they talked. I'm sure this is common.

I'm not surprised Simmons didn't open up about it to Maddon. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't talk to any teammates about it, either. 

Simmons is far from the only player dealing with this, in any sport. We look at these guys like machines: cold and predictable. Everything is at face value. They mess up? They suck. They're slumping? They don't care.

If a player is struggling, or slumping or whatever, what's going on in their head? No one, myself included, ever truly considers that. It really should humble us as sports fans to see things like this. They're all people, just like us, and sometimes they struggle through life, like a lot of us do. 

Mental health is just as important, if not more so than physical health. Joe Maddon said they always focus on the physical stuff, which I'm sure is true in every professional sport. I truly hope they all have access to help on the mental side of things. Doesn’t matter who you are or how much money you make, no one should have to suffer with mental illness.

One thing is for sure, I'll definitely be rooting for Simmons this year. And I'll also be watching what I say about the players going forward.

So what Angels team were you super stoked with the roster & overall chances entering the season only for the team to completely shit on your couch with their overall performance and record?


For me it was the 1996 California Angels. I felt that they had some bad luck after the Disarcina injury in the summer of 1995 when they coughed up a huge 1st place lead to the Mariners. One could argue the 1995 season was the most disappointing season, but I felt the team was poised to have an outstanding season the following season. 

There was a ton of home grown talent and quality players. George Arias ended up being a huge disappointment after he was the minor league player of the Angels the year before (30 HR, 104 RBI, .886 OPS). Finley, Abbott and Langston had TERRIBLE seasons, maybe the worst of their careers. 

But that club did hit a ton of HR's (192), the bullpen was good and boy was it fun watching that homegrown talent in terms of Salmon, Edmonds and GA blossom before our eyes and we also had the debut of Darin Erstad later on that season. Rex Hudler had a great season as well and was always fun to watch. Watching Troy Percival throw near 100 mph gas was a thrill as well. 

What a total bummer. I had high hopes for that team to go far in 1996, yet they finished in last place 19.5 games out, with a 70-91 record under Marcel Lachemenn.

1996 California Angels
Opening Day Starters

Garret Anderson
George Arias
Chili Davis
Gary DiSarcina
Jim Edmonds
Jorge Fabregas
Chuck Finley
Tim Salmon
J.T. Snow
Randy Velarde

SP


 Jim Abbott


SP


 Shawn Boskie


SP


 Chuck Finley


SP


 Jason Grimsley


SP


 Mark Langston


SP


 Dennis Springer


 


 


RP


 Mark Eichhorn


RP


 Mike Holtz


RP


 Mark Holzemer


RP


 Mike James


RP


 Chuck McElroy


CL


 Troy Percival




 

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

Mike Trout. 


Anthony Rendon:


Players ranked 10-1...

To piggyback off of @Michifan's thread, I figured this would be another interesting discussion.

Just a few cherrypicked stats to get the ball rolling (Angels stats only):

Weaver: 36.1 bWAR, 114 ERA+, 7.1 K/9, 2.96 k/bb

Lackey: 24.8 bWAR (89 fewer starts), 116 ERA+, 7.2 K/9, 2.72 k/bb

I know this one might be tough as Lackey had a long career beyond the Angels, but I figured it was worth a discussion. Both guys are eerily similar in many ways, at least statwise. 


Or

Bollinger has a top five homegrown players article. He gives his top five that were drafted by the club and then played for them. I like the top five overall but wonder about his #4. He has Erstad, and it's hard to overlook Erstad's defense and his couple of really good years. But he neglects Garret Anderson. I think it's a tough call. Weave as #5 makes sense so that you have two pitchers-Finley and Weave. 

So I'm curious to what others think for #4 Erstad and his gold gloves and one phenomenal season or Anderson's stead contributions over his career. According to Wikipedia, "He holds Angels franchise records for career games played (2,013), at bats (7,989), hits (2,368), runs scored (1,024), runs batted in (RBI) (1,292), total bases (3,743), extra base hits (796), singles (1,572), doubles (489), grand slams (8), RBI in a single game (10) and consecutive games with an RBI (12)" That's pretty impressive. 

I guess it's like asking which child you like most. Maybe it needed to be a tie and have six actual listed. 

Alright let's just get this out of the way: I do not like the SP acquisitions this offseason. Quintana is fine, but Cobb is gonna have to pitch much better than he has for me to understand that trade. As of now, it's an absolute ball scratcher.

That said, I think he's looking at what happened last year at the back of the rotation as well as the depth. He's also banking on significant improvement from Ohtani.

The Angels used 10 starting pitchers in 2020. Teheran, Ohtani, Suarez, Peters, and Andriese all combined for 15 starts. That's 1/4 of the season. 

They had an 12.29 ERA. And that's with Andriese giving up 0 runs over 5.2 innings.

The other five, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Sandoval, and Barria had a *4.22 ERA. That would have been good for 12th in baseball, and 5th in the AL. The 5 starters I mentioned in the previous paragraph, including Ohtani, took the rotation from being above average to the 2nd worst in baseball. This is despite only making 1/4 of the starts. That's how fucking bad they were.

[*is based on overall ERA for GS, Barria and Sandoval made "relief" appearances.]

So, lets say the rotation this year is Bundy, Heaney, Quintana, Canning, Cobb, Ohtani. Quintana replaces Sandoval, who put up a 6.75 ERA. I'm going out on a limb and say Quintana pitches better than that. 

Cobb replaces Teheran and his 10.73 ERA as a starter. Even if Cobb sucks and has a 5.00 ERA, that's a pretty significant improvement. 

Anyway, I'm done with stats. My point is I kind of get what Minasian is doing this year: He's strengthening the back end and the depth so when we need 4-5 starters to pitch in a quarter of the games this year, it won't be so devastating. 

I lied, I'm not done with stats. 

Catcher: Is Stassi healthy? 

If so, he will be the larger part of a platoon with Suzuki; if not, Bemboom will be the weaker half of the platoon until Stassi is healthy. Pretty straightforward.

Infield: Who is the utility guy?

The starting four is set with Walsh at 1B, Fletcher at 2B, Iglesias at SS, and Rendon at 3B; and, of course, Pujols will be there, splitting time between 1B, DH, and the bench. The biggest question going into spring training is the utility infielder, with the Angels having three options for one spot: Rengifo, Barreto, and newly acquired Gosselin. Rengifo still has a minor league option and will likely start the year in AAA, which is probably for the best as it gives him the regular playing time he has been lacking for two years. The Gosselin signing implies lack of confidence in Barreto, whether his hitting or his ability to play SS. But certainly they'll enter ST with a competition for the starting utility player. While neither have options, I believe that Gosselin--because he signed a minor league contract--could start the year in AAA, if they're worried about losing Barreto to waivers. If Barreto looks lost, they could risk sending him to AAA, with Gosselin earning the job and Rengifo waiting for another chance.

Outfield: How will the outfield look later in the year? 

The big outfield question isn't how it will look in April, but in August. The Opening Day starters will almost certainly be Upton, Trout, and Fowler, with Juan Lagares likely the 4th outfielder. This means that there's no place for Ward on the major league team, and thus he will likely join a crowded AAA outfield that includes Adell, Marsh, Schebler, and Lund. Ward could continue to raise his stock by playing multiple positions in Salt Lake, maybe getting some games in at catcher. 

OFFICIAL: The Angels have agreed to a two-year, $8.5 million contract with Shohei Ohtani. With the agreement, an arbitration hearing is avoided.

 

There's been a lot of head-scratching at Perry Minasian's moves this offseason as he has eschewed multi-year deals and added minimal if any premier talent (depending upon how you consider Raisel Iglesias).

Now while I don't like the Cobb trade (as the Angels could have found similar talent on the free agent market without giving up Jahmai Jones), I am starting to see a bigger picture that could explain his thinking. I'm not saying that I have definitive proof that this is what Minasian has in mind, but kind of like the hypothetical Planet X, there's lots of secondary evidence that supports my theory, even if the plan (or planet) hasn't been directly seen.

After acquiring Jose Quintana and Alex Cobb, the Angels now have, along with Dylan Bundy and Andrew Heaney, four veteran starters who will be free agents after 2021. So too will be their new closer, Raisel Iglesias, as well as their two position player acquisitions, Dexter Fowler and Kurt Suzuki.

Now consider the farm system. It has a lot of projectable, but largely unproven, talent. Of especial interest to the near future, the team has two very good outfielders in Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh who should be ready sometime this season, and two starters in Reid Detmers and Chris Rodriguez, who also have a chance of major league readiness; if not in 2021, then as possible starters in 2022. 

After those four, they have several starters who could either be #4-5 starters or solid relievers in Hector Yan, Aaron Hernandez, Oliver Ortega, Pack Naughton, etc, as well as a third stud outfielder in Jordyn Adams who could be ready sometime in 2022. The bulk of the rest of the talent is very inexperienced, but with some upside.

In other words, Minasian has inherited a very interesting farm system, but also a very inexperienced one.

Lots of folks are expressing concerns about the one-year deals, with the Angels top four--or at least, most experienced--starters all heading to free agency after this season. 

Maybe I'm more bullish on our pitching prospects, but it could be that the reason Minasian isn't signing multi-year deals is that he both doesn't want to commit long-term to less-than really good talent, and because he has some degree of faith in the pitching prospects.

Here is what we have for 2021, with club-controlled starters in 2022:

2021: Bundy, Heaney, Quintana, Cobb, Canning, Ohtani; plus, Barria, Sandoval, Suarez, McNaughton, etc.

2022: Canning, Ohtani, Barria, Sandoval, Detmers, C Rodriguez; plus, Suarez, McNaughton, Ortega, Yan, Hernandez, etc.

One would think that Minasian will re-sign at least one of the veterans, probably Bundy. As to when he does it, it is kind of a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't scenario, because it is difficult to know for sure whether Bundy's gains in 2020 are legitimate. Bundy probably thinks so, so he won't accept a low-ball offer right now. But because we only have 11 starts to go on, Minasian might be hesitant to make him an offer he can't resist. However, if they wait, Bundy's asking price could go up; if he has another season like 2020 but over 30+ starts (say, <3.50 ERA, ~5 WAR), all of a sudden he becomes one of the most desirable free agents in next year's crop, and might earn something like 5/$90M or more. Right now they might be able to extend him for $5M less AAV, say 4/$56M or 5/$65M, which would either be a bargain if he keeps his gains, or an overpay if he reverts to being a #4 starter.

But let's assume that they extend Bundy or, if not, a cheaper contract for Heaney or Quintana, or possible a trade or a free agent. Then you have the 2022 list above, plus a veteran starter.

By David Saltzer, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer

Quick! Let’s play a game. Which of these numbers is not like the other two: 40, 45, and 17. If you guessed 17, you’re a winner!

If you also guessed that those numbers represent the reported annual salaries for Trevor Bauer is his pending 3-year deal with the Dodgers, you’d also be right.

This deal is bad for baseball. It’s bad for baseball on many levels, and as such, if baseball had an effective commissioner, it should voided and reworked in the better interests of baseball. This isn’t sour grapes from a pitching-starved Angels fan. It’s the recognition that this contract was specifically designed by both sides to thwart the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Consider for a second that Bauer is getting paid more in 2021 than three other baseball club's entire projected payrolls. That is just insane! 


There are two main reasons why the reported Trevor Bauer deal is bad for baseball. The first is that it sets a ridiculously high bar for all future pitchers that will make pitching too expensive long-term for small and mid-market teams to develop and maintain a solid rotation long enough to develop a championship team.

Most likely Trevor Bauer won’t pitch much more than 200 innings in either of the next two years. At $40 million and $45 million each year, Bauer is establishing the market for all future pitchers at nearly $200,000.00 per inning pitched. That’s nearly $67,000 per out! That is an insane amount—one that will tank small and mid-market teams and one that will have long term damage to the game. This, more than anything, shows why Major League Baseball needs an absolute floor and hard ceiling on team payroll. Large market teams will continue to drive up the prices for players, particularly pitchers, to the point where small and mid-market teams won’t be able to hold onto a rotation long enough to compete. With this new mark set, all future arbitration salaries will have a new target amount on what a starting pitcher should earn per out and the prices for frontline starting pitchers will shoot up dramatically.

The Angels reportedly have traded for Alex Cobb.

 

It's getting close to being the middle of December, MLB seems to have resolved their plans at the MiLB level but they still haven't ironed it anything regarding expanded playoffs, people at games, universal DH, roster sizes ... Just a lot of stuff they really can't resolve because it's out of their control..

So, with that uncertainty in mind..  Are you guys expecting a full 162 game season?  At this point my guess is they are assuming the end of 2021 will possibly allow for fans to be back at games, particularly if the vaccine takes and they start turning the corner with Covid...   My guess is we may see a shorter season, possible one that starts later and another year of tournament style baseball at neutral sites where the weather is more forgiving.

But does anyone really expect MLB to start on time and in front of fans?  Do you think they may ask for proof of vaccinations to be able to attend games...   Its likely going to be different state to state, so that too may make for some volatility within MLB.

Personally, wasn't a fan of the neutral park stuff -- I get why they did it and to be honest it got to where I didn't really notice the lack of fans, but unless it's due to weather, I really do think I'd prefer to see teams who earned a playoff spot get to play in their own parks and the sort..

Legendary Atlanta Brave and Major League Baseball record holder Hank Aaron died Friday at the age of 86, according to Aaron’s daughter.

Born in Mobile, Alabama, on Feb. 5, 1934, Henry Louis Aaron was one of eight children born to Herbert and Estella Aaron." – WSB-TV Atlanta


This one hits me hard, since I grew up as a Braves fan. He was such a kind man, too.  I had the pleasure of meeting him a few times. RIP, Hank.

Quintana pitched just games in 2020, but he has a career 3.73 and he's reunited with former Cubs manager Joe Maddon.


 

I admit, seeing Musgrove come off the board was the first instance this offseason that I started to let worry creep in. In a perfect world, Darvish and Musgrove would have been the two targets I felt were the best targets for the Angels, in my mind.Bauer obviously looms large - and with more teams filling their pitching needs while he remains a free agent, chances are improving that he winds up with the Angels. 

As it stands, I still see a few different routes the Angels can take and still come out of this offseason in great shape. 

Option 1: Trevor Bauer
This scenario banks heavily on internal improvement, which is something Minasian has emphasized this offseason. There's a very real chance that if the Angels can afford Trevor Bauer, he'll use up all of their remaining money available, and even if he's the lone addition to the rotation this winter, would it really be so bad? Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Barria/Sandoval/Detmers, with Ohtani once a week could be competitive if the youngsters keep improving and folks stay healthy. I'd assume the Angels would still add a cheap RP or two (think Tepera, Kintzler) perhaps a platoon-level RF (Duvall, Naquin, Pillar, Souza, Goodwin) and call it a day. Save all the prospects.

More...

By the AngelsWin.com Prospect Posse

(Angelsjunky, Chuck, Dave Saltzer, Dochalo, Ettin, Inside Pitch, Rafibomb, Second Base, and totdprods)

One of the great, largely unspoken, tragedies of the 2020 baseball season was the lack of minor league games, which not only led to a lost year of development (for the most part), but the rushing of the Angels’ top prospect, Jo Adell, to the major leagues, where he looked raw and overmatched, to put it charitably. In terms of compiling a prospects list, it is hard to assess many of the Angels most talented prospects because a lot of them have had little to no professional experience. That said, most of them spent time at the Long Beach summer camp and were still able to work on their skills, so the year wasn’t totally a loss.

Looking at the list, you’ll find that the farm includes a variety of dynamic players. It is strong in two areas: One, it has plenty of athletic, talented outfielders in Adell, Marsh, Adams, Calabrese, Ramirez, Knowles, and Deveaux, as well as the very young and unranked Jose Reyes. Two, it has plenty of high upside—but very young--middle infielders in Jackson, Paris, Vera, Blakely, Bonilla, and Placencia. We should also mention the recently signed 16-year-old Dominican infielder, Denzer Guzman.

Sprinkled in between are a few exciting pitching prospects in Rodriguez, Detmers and Kochanowicz, and several more who plan to figure in the Angels pitching staff at some point in the not-too-distant future as either back-end starters or relievers: Yan, Rivera, Naughton, Ortega, Hernandez, Pina, Aquino, Seminaris, and Daniel. It even has one two-way player in Holmes, and a second just missing the cut in Erik Rivera. Finally, there are a few players whose most likely path to the majors is as a bench player in Jones, Martinez, and Soto. Oh yeah, Maitan’s still hanging around. There are no catchers on this list.

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