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Since Passan confirmed the connection in his article, and a decision is expected to be imminent, I figured it was time to start a thread.  Sounds like he is returning to Japan and trying again next year if he doesn't get the offer he wants, which doesn't appear to be happening lately.  If this is the case and all it is coming down to is money, Arte had better the hell be willing to meet his demands, as this would be our easiest path to getting a significant rotation upgrade.  Refusing to do so would be negligent. 

Get the popcorn ready.

So I crunched some numbers, in a similar formula that I used for my top 20ish position players article awhile back. This time I added up 2019-20 fWAR and RA9-WAR, and divided the total by 2.8. The idea is that fWAR represents stuff (as it is FIP-based), and RA9-WAR actual results (as it is ERA-based). The 2.8 is because it accounts for 2019 as a full season (1.0) and 2020 as a bit less than 40% (0.4) of a season, then x2 for counting both fWAR and RA9-WAR. The end result was what could be considered an equalized "True WAR level" for the top pitchers in the game.

Here are the results with every pitcher of 4.0 or better, with Bauer in bold:

deGrom 7.0


Bieber 6.7


Cole 6.7


Lynn 6.0


Scherzer 5.7


Ryu 5.6


Greinke 5.5


Verlander 5.5


Giolito 4.9


Castillo 4.8


Gray 4.8


Morton 4.7


Hendricks 4.6


Darvish 4.5


Corbin 4.5


Flaherty 4.5


Bauer 4.3


Kershaw 4.3


Buehler 4.3


Minor 4.2


Nola 4.0


(Ties were broken by 2020 WAR + RA9-WAR, so Bauer is higher than Kershaw and Buehler).

The point being, according to this metric, Bauer isn't a top 10 pitcher, more in the 15-20 range. Not bad, but hardly worth $30M a year, let along the $36-40M he's allegedly asking for. I think Corbin or 30-something Kershaw are good comps: a solid #2 guy, but not a true ace.

(As an aside, I was surprised at how high Lynn ranks; Ryu, also, although he's a good example of where the metric breaks down as his 2019 ERA makes him look better than he actually is).

So here's a question: Do you want Bauer only for $30-35M a year, or something like Sugano and Odorizzi for less? 

Bauer wants to be paid like he's the guy he was in 2018 and 2020, when that accounts for only about 21% of his career. For the rest he was essentially Andrew Heaney - a solid pitcher, but not the Cy Young he was for the 21%. Sure, those two years are two of the last three, but only about half the innings, and we can't ignore 2019, when he was a good pitcher, but again, more "vintage Heaney."

I personally think Bauer will be very good for the next few years, maybe a 4-5 WAR pitcher, or essentially Patrick Corbin, who is a very good pitcher but more of a good #2 than one of the best in the game. Remember when Corbin got a 6/$140M contract and we collectively breathed a sigh of relief when the Angels didn't spend $23.3 AAV? What makes Bauer worth $10M or so more a year?

That said, I'd happily sign Bauer for a Corbin-esque contract, and maybe a bit more to reflect inflation and demand. But I'd probably stop in the $25Mish AAV range. I just don't think you spend more than that unless you're certain you're getting an elite arm, and Bauer will almost certainly get more than Corbin did.

By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer

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Important Note: First of all I would like to say Happy New Year! I hope all of you and your families are implementing best-practice safety guidelines as outlined by the Center for Disease Control, including wearing masks out in public, washing your hands often, and exercising physical distancing protocols. Not only is COVID-19 potentially life-threatening there are now reports of long-term physical and psychological damage to those that survive. Take care of yourselves out there both physically and mentally, the Angels family needs to stay strong so all of us can enjoy Mike Trout now and in the future!

With the MLB offseason moving at a glacially slow speed, a lot of time, columns, and commentary has been devoted to which players, if any, might be voted into the Hall of Fame. As of the time this article was written, there are 57 public ballots and 5 anonymous ballots.  There’s even a Hall of Fame vote tracker, where fans can see which players are likely to gain admittance into the Hall of Fame.

 

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As we scratch our heads and wonder who and how many SP will be added to the Angels MLB roster for this year, I wonder if our prospect experts can predict when the farm will finally bring us a TOR, specifically I'm curious which of Detmers, Rodriguez or Kochanowicz will be first up and when that will be.

 

The Angels have 5 starters who made multiple starts in 2020. 

I see a lot of posts where the poster wants to acquire two or three starters, and I don’t know where they all fit. 

I think we need one Ace. And depth in AAA and the pen.

So who leaves the rotation or goes to AAA if the Angels sign two starters? There are only so many starts.

Angels in on Jake Odorizzi

A healthy Shohei Ohtani is a difference-maker on both sides of the ball

By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer

Note: What can I do here, everyone? Hope for Education is a small, targeted charity with a very specific fundraising goal and they are only a short way off from it. Again, I know some of you might be strapped for cash out there, I get it. But I am not asking for much, $5 is skipping a morning Starbucks run. Even $1, is one item less off the value deal menu at your favorite fast food joint. These kids deserve the opportunity to learn safely in this pandemic environment, so once again I am humbly requesting ANY donation you can afford to make. Thank you for your time and attention! - Robert

Hitting leadoff for the 2021 Primer Series, the rotation is clearly the biggest concern facing the Halos front office heading into the off-season.

The Angels, on paper, will pencil in Andrew Heaney and Dylan Bundy, both in their last year of arbitration control, along with Shohei Ohtani, who is, unfortunately, a bit of a wild card health-wise, making his reliability unpredictable, as the initial base of their rotation. We will call this trio “2 and a half men”, for now.

Beyond those names, the Angels do have a selection of younger pitchers, on the 40-man roster, to choose from, including Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval, Jaime Barria, Jose Suarez, Hector Yan, and Chris Rodriguez. Behind them are additional swingmen, such as Dillon Peters and Felix Pena that can act as spot starters, as well. The Angels also have another upside starter, not on their 40-man roster yet, Reid Detmers, the teams #1 draft pick in 2020, but he is almost certainly not ready for the Majors yet, but could be sooner rather than later.

If the Angels started the season with the current group of pitchers on the 40-man roster, the likely rotation depth would look something like this (number in parentheses represents the number of Minor League options remaining): Full Story

I, for one, am a yes.  I think Adell's upside is limited due to his high K rate.  Give me 3 years of Blake Snell at the front of our rotation, with Brandon Marsh waiting in the wings to take over RF when he's ready.

Minasian’s first two significant moves, trades for shortstop José Iglesias and reliever Raisel Iglesias, were for players entering their free-agent years, enabling the team to retain future payroll flexibility. The Angels also need to address their bullpen and other positions, and catcher Kurt Suzuki is a free agent of interest after the Mets’ signing of McCann, sources say. One thing is clear: Even with the potential for expanded playoffs next season, there is no easy path for Minasian to get Mike Trout back to the postseason.

Article: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-projections-los-angeles-angels/

"Trevor Bauer would be a nice fit for the Angels, but that’s because he’d be — at least on the mound — a nice fit for pretty much everyone. Well, maybe not the Astros."

I read this morning that today is the day where teams have to announce their 40 man roster.  This really isn’t my thing, but figured others like @Second Base, @Dochalo, @totdprodsand @ettin would like a thread to make their predictions.  

By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer

Note: I am humbly requesting any donation (even one dollar!) you can make to the Angelswin.com Charity of the Month, Hope for Education! Every dollar can help, so please lend a hand if you are able!

 

This part of the Primer Series will be difficult to write, at least this year.

New GM Perry Minasian, despite his many years in baseball, is a wildcard in the main decision-making seat, which constrains our ability to construct an educated guess on team strategy.

Bottom line is that we, at Angelswin.com, can only speculate based on what we do see and hear.

So to start, Minasian, in his introduction as the new GM, was quoted stating, “Pitching is going to be a major priority...”. This was obvious to everyone, but it is good to hear him reemphasize the clear need again.


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By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer

Note from Angelswin.com: Again, I am making a plea for support, to our family here at Angelswin.com, to provide any donation, even $1, to the AW.com sponsored charity-of-the-month, Hope for Education. If I have to go further, I am willing to take unnatural pictures by tdawg's bunk bed to encourage donations or, alternatively, not show them, at the whim of each individual member of the Angelswin.com family. I know times may be tough for many of you, but even a small donation helps toward a larger goal, so I am humbly requesting any kindness you can afford. Thank you for your time and attention!

 

As we alluded to, in the Introduction article, Major League Baseball (MLB) has taken a financial hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Clearly the abbreviated season combined with a complete lack of in-person attendance at ballgames put a big financial hit on the game. Arte Moreno, himself, indicated revenues came in well short of projections. This financial impact is not insignificant and the likelihood that 2021 will take a similar hit is high.

Why?

Well, let us just talk it out here. Assuming President-elect Biden takes office on January 20th and, in a likely scenario, puts the country on a 30-60-day lockdown (or some hybrid mask requirement), that would immediately place us in early-to-late March.

Angels acquire Raisel Iglesias from the Reds for Noe Ramirez and a PTBNL

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=1

Currently, we rank #4 in the AL in terms of fWAR, behind the Yankees, Astros, and Twins (6th overall in baseball).

Obviously this number is meaningless, as the game is played on the field, but certainly it's a nice barometer to show that we do have a good amount of talent.

The Iglesias acquisition actually boosted us up a bit pretty nicely.

The question is, how to further improve in the most cost efficient fashion?

Obviously, acquiring a top flight SP will help boost us, but probably the easiest ways to improve this team are by acquiring a better backup catcher (or someone to split time with Stassi, who grades rather well by fWAR), and significantly improving our RF production, where we are currently rated #29 out of 30.  Our bullpen, despite losing like half of them yesterday, is still actually ranked #19, which isn't terrible.

So obviously, while our focus will be pitching, we can actually get some pretty good mileage by simply finding a LHH RF to platoon with Ward and finding a better backup catcher to split time with Stassi.

 

Arte Moreno, sign this guy at all costs. Not only is he dominate, but his swagger is exactly what this team needs. 

Angels acquire Jose Iglesias from the Orioles for Garrett Stallings and Jean Pinto

Players immediately become free agents at 9 am following the World Series and can officially sign starting on Sunday. Let the offseason start! 

This is without a doubt a big piece that the Angels need.

What would you trade for that piece?

I wouldn't pull Adel off the table here.

By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer

 

Special Request from Angelswin.com: This year, after discussion with Chuck, we have decided to tie-in the 2021 Angelswin.com Primer Series with a wonderful GoFundMe effort called “Hope for Education”.

This is a focused fundraiser, to help ten needy families in Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico, obtain laptops for educational use in this challenging COVID-19 pandemic environment. These families are unable to afford these computers, themselves, and so it is up to charitable people and donors to help bridge the gap so these children can continue to learn, safely, from their homes.

Education is very important to me, personally, and Chuck and I are asking our fellow Angels fans to contribute to this very worthy cause, organized and supported, in-part, by a former colleague of mine and her friend. Any amount is appreciated and you can donate here to help them reach, and even exceed, their initial goal:

Donate here: https://www.gofundme.com/f/give-a-child-a-chance-4-education

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/arte-moreno-angels-payroll-not-going-down-in-2021.html

Angels announce Perry Minasian as their next general manager

Michael Hermosillo, Jose Briceno, and Elliot Soto among players let go by the Angels