Trade Adell (+ club control through 2026) for Snell (3 years, $42M left on contract) straight up?

[Capital_Dave]

I, for one, am a yes.  I think Adell's upside is limited due to his high K rate.  Give me 3 years of Blake Snell at the front of our rotation, with Brandon Marsh waiting in the wings to take over RF when he's ready.

[tdawg87]

As a 1 for 1 trade, yes. All day long. Minasian would be an idiot not to pull the trigger on that.

I'd have concerns over trading with TB though, especially if Adell was all they were asking for. The fact there are even rumors they're willing to part with him is enough to raise an eyebrow.

 

[ScruffytheJanitor]

I hate myself, but I don't think I can take one more season of having just a complete dumpster fire of a rotation. I'd probably offer my first-borne if the kid wasn't totally absent-minded in the field.

[CanadianHalo]

For Snell? No. Would I be open to moving Adell even though I think he’s still going to be a superstar? Maybe.

Snell’s injury history scares me. People are quick to put his innings pitched onto Tampa but he’s a high pitch count type of guy. He didn’t complete 6 innings once this season and had pitch counts in the 90’s twice and 100’s three times.

[eligrba]

I guess some people have not been paying attention to the historical success of traded Tampa starters.

Tampa knows something.....I am a no, not because of Adell, but because Tampa is much smarter than most other front offices.  Why would they trade Snell with three years of control remaining just after appearing in the World Series?    They are not rebuilding and have a very low payroll.  I see this as potentially a major rookie mistake for Minasian.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, eligrba said:

I guess some people have not been paying attention to the historical success of traded Tampa starters.

Tampa knows something.....I am a no, not because of Adell, but because Tampa is much smarter than most other front offices.  Why would they trade Snell with three years of control remaining just after appearing in the World Series?    They are not rebuilding and have a very low payroll.  I see this as potentially a major rookie mistake for Minasian.

If you know this about Tampa then Minasian knows this about Tampa. 

[eligrba]

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If you know this about Tampa then Minasian knows this about Tampa. 

Minasian better know a hell-of-a-lot more about Tampa than me.  However, sometimes tunnel vision can be blinding and it's obvious what the Angels need.   Sometimes I think the media and other execs are just baiting the Angels to make an impulsive move.  That's what I see in the Snell discussions.

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Minasian better know a hell-of-a-lot more about Tampa than me.

He does.

[Stradling]

Tampa trade Kazmir and Archer AFTER both were already showing signs of no longer being front of the rotation starters.  Archer had like 3 years of 4+ ERAs.  Kazmir was pitching to the tune of a 6 ERA the season we traded for him. I’m guessing there are others since the belief is Tampa is all knowing.  

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

In a heartbeat. 

[eligrba]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Tampa trade Kazmir and Archer AFTER both were already showing signs of no longer being front of the rotation starters.  Archer had like 3 years of 4+ ERAs.  Kazmir was pitching to the tune of a 6 ERA the season we traded for him. I’m guessing there are others since the belief is Tampa is all knowing.  

David Price is the only one that comes to mind that worked out for the team that traded for a Tamp pitcher.  There might be others but I don't know any.

You have to admit, that is not due to coincidence.

[wopphil]

I’d do it. I’d probably be fine throwing in another piece or two as well, as long as the piece is a prospect in the 8-12 range. 

Snell is a very good pitcher. His issue this year was that he was really homerun prone, but he hasn’t been that bad historically and it could be the product of a small sample size. He also showed he can dominate even the best teams. If paired with a Bauer or Gray, he’d make the team the division favorite. 

[failos]

No

[Warfarin]

I would trade Adell for someone like Snell.  As others have articulated, I would give a bit of a pause if TB asked us for that deal directly.  They're an incredibly smart team that makes very good moves.  That said, I think you have to roll the dice and hope it works out, so yes, I would do it.

[T.G.]

Adele? Yes. Adell? No.

[DMVol]

1 hour ago, eligrba said:

David Price is the only one that comes to mind that worked out for the team that traded for a Tamp pitcher.  There might be others but I don't know any.

You have to admit, that is not due to coincidence.

They had to trade Price, he was set to be a FA at the end of the season....Kazmir and Archer were not....Odorizzi has been pretty good in Minnesota after Tampa traded him....

[Chuck]

Absolutely! 

[Erstad Grit]

I don't think the rays do that.  

[Angelsjunky]

Yes. Ultimately, the Angels don't have room for all three of Adell, Marsh, and Adams and will probably trade one. I don't think they will do better than three years of Snell.

[Torridd]

I think those of you who are saying yes are making a mistake. If Adell had a second year like Trout did, would you say the same? I think Adell may still be a star. I think there are other ways to get pitching. 

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, Torridd said:

I think those of you who are saying yes are making a mistake. If Adell had a second year like Trout did, would you say the same? I think Adell may still be a star. I think there are other ways to get pitching. 

That's a big if, and of course we'd all be bummed if Adell turned out to be Tampa Trout. But what are the chances of that? I too still think he'll be good, maybe really good, but there's close to zero chance he'll be Trout.

[Torridd]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

That's a big if, and of course we'd all be bummed if Adell turned out to be Tampa Trout. But what are the chances of that? I too still think he'll be good, maybe really good, but there's close to zero chance he'll be Trout.

Maybe but I think the odds are pretty good that he'll be a very good baseball player.

[AngelsFaninGA]

Yes. Adell will probably be decent but the contact/K rate issues are a big concern for a prospect. 

[Second Base]

For me, it's a yes vote based on expected value. 

I expect Jo Adell to ultimately settle in as a 3-5 win player on an annual basis. Some years, he'll be good, some, he's going to be a sure-fire all-star. On average, a 4 win player.

I expect Brandon Marsh to also be a 3-5 win player annually. He's a different player than Adell but the end value will be the same. Better OBP and defense. Less game changing power and all that goes with it. On average, a 4 win player.

I believe Jordyn Adams is going to be a 3-7 win player. His defense it's that good, and he'll have enough bat and power to keep him relevant. Basically, Adams will be everything Peter Bourjos should've been, based on his age 24 season. On average, a 5 win player.

Snell pitched will enough last year to tell us two things. 1 - His down year in 2019 was a small blip in what will otherwise be a strong run through his prime years. 2 - That 1.89 ERA in 2018, will likely be the high point of his career. Very very rarely is a pitcher that good for an extended period of time. So ultimately, I expect Snell will likely be a 4-win pitcher on a yearly basis.

But not all wins are allocated equally. The Angels will have plenty of value in the outfield, but not as much on the mound. They need mound value and therefore, I would trade Adell for Snell. 

The money owed to Snell doesn't appear to be a franchise changing amount, and three years is fine when you're referring to that value taking place during Trout and Rendon's prime. Whereas Adell's value likely takes place after Trout is 33 and Rendon is in his mid-30's. That value would be good to have on hand for continuity purposes, but if Marsh and Adams are on hand, it is already covered and therefore a surplus.

In short, Adell is a surplus value, being traded for a necessity. So yes.

 

 

Edited December 14, 2020 by Second Base

[ScottT]

30 minutes ago, Second Base said:

For me, it's a yes vote based on expected value. 

I expect Jo Adell to ultimately settle in as a 3-5 win player on an annual basis. Some years, he'll be good, some, he's going to be a sure-fire all-star. On average, a 4 win player.

I expect Brandon Marsh to also be a 3-5 win player annually. He's a different player than Adell but the end value will be the same. Better OBP and defense. Less game changing power and all that goes with it. On average, a 4 win player.

I believe Jordyn Adams is going to be a 3-7 win player. His defense it's that good, and he'll have enough bat and power to keep him relevant. Basically, Adams will be everything Peter Bourjos should've been, based on his age 24 season. On average, a 5 win player.

Snell pitched will enough last year to tell us two things. 1 - His down year in 2019 was a small blip in what will otherwise be a strong run through his prime years. 2 - That 1.89 ERA in 2018, will likely be the high point of his career. Very very rarely is a pitcher that good for an extended period of time. So ultimately, I expect Snell will likely be a 4-win pitcher on a yearly basis.

But not all wins are allocated equally. The Angels will have plenty of value in the outfield, but not as much on the mound. They need mound value and therefore, I would trade Adell for Snell. 

The money owed to Snell doesn't appear to be a franchise changing amount, and three years is fine when you're referring to that value taking place during Trout and Rendon's prime. Whereas Adell's value likely takes place after Trout is 33 and Rendon is in his mid-30's. That value would be good to have on hand for continuity purposes, but if Marsh and Adams are on hand, it is already covered and therefore a surplus.

In short, Adell is a surplus value, being traded for a necessity. So yes.

 

 

Those are some lofty expectations.

Hope you're right.