AngelsWin.com Today: 2021 Angelswin.com Primer Series: Strategy

[AngelsWin.com]

By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer

Note: I am humbly requesting any donation (even one dollar!) you can make to the Angelswin.com Charity of the Month, Hope for Education! Every dollar can help, so please lend a hand if you are able!

 

This part of the Primer Series will be difficult to write, at least this year.

New GM Perry Minasian, despite his many years in baseball, is a wildcard in the main decision-making seat, which constrains our ability to construct an educated guess on team strategy.

Bottom line is that we, at Angelswin.com, can only speculate based on what we do see and hear.

So to start, Minasian, in his introduction as the new GM, was quoted stating, “Pitching is going to be a major priority...”. This was obvious to everyone, but it is good to hear him reemphasize the clear need again.

Also, during the live telecast from Anaheim, Minasian clearly stated that they will improve the team in, “... any way that we can, whether it is offense, defense, or pitching”. He cited the decision, when he was with the Braves front office, to bring in Josh Donaldson on a one-year deal, to provide an impact player and build temporary depth, so it appears that all options to upgrade the team could be on the table.

Additionally, we can look a bit at his past work in talent evaluation. As Director of Scouting with the Toronto Blue Jays, he is given credit for drafting SP’s Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman and signing international free agent 3B Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.. Not a bad list to be associated with heading into a new position and it is indicative of his past and potential scouting ability.

That is the extent of what we know. He is regarded as a good talent evaluator, excellent communicator, and has performed most of the jobs you can do, while working for a baseball club. It was also mentioned that he has an innate ability to construct rosters. That experience and those traits are a good base to operate from, not dissimilar to former GM Billy Eppler, so fans need to give him time to put his mark on the team and see where it takes our beloved Halos.

The challenge in front of him is to create a winning environment and team. Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon, David Fletcher, and Jo Adell represent a solid set of position players to build around but Moreno likely didn’t fire Eppler just to bring in a new GM to continue the slow boil toward contention. Minasian likely has a mandate to get the team there sooner, not later, which means Perry could upset the applecart by zigging, to the former GM Billy Eppler’s zagging.

In order to build this winner, Minasian will need to fill the clear holes in the rotation and bullpen, as well as finding a shortstop solution and creating additional catching depth. These needs represent the minimum to be done at the Major League level and, in fact, Minasian has already struck, trading for Jose Iglesias to man the shortstop position in the last year of a very reasonable contract, thereby opening the team to potentially sign one of many free agent shortstops next year when Pujols’ comes off of the books. On top of that move, the Halos acquired RP Raisel Iglesias for a modest return, bringing in, for at least 2021, a top-tier closer to add to the back-end of a largely rebuilt bullpen. These first two deals, on the surface, appear to be value acquisitions, considering the salaries and prospects involved, so more of these types of transactions can compliment and incrementally improve team production, over last year.

In 2020, from that holistic production side, the Angels were ranked 11th in FanGraphs WAR for hitting. The rotation was ranked 21st and the bullpen, a bit surprisingly, a more respectable 13th place overall. Finally, and most shockingly, the Angels defense was ranked 29th according to FanGraphs ‘Def’ rating. Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 innings (UZR/150) was not much better, coming in 27th.

So clearly there is more work to do, particularly in the rotation, and probably not as much time to do it in, for our new GM. It seems like both the rotation and team defensive performance can regress a bit in a more positive direction, particularly the latter because the Angels are not that bad on paper, despite swapping Simmons for Iglesias. Beyond that, though, the rotation does, still, need real work, the bullpen needs additional massaging, beyond Iglesias, and adding another bat at the catching position, that can play quality defense, would be nice.

If, as we suspect, Minasian has a mandate to win soon, all options including a payroll increase and/or trading some of our best prospects could be on the table, potentially.

So, could it be a run on SP Trevor Bauer in free agency, resulting in a payroll increase, possibly exceeding the CBT threshold, which Arte has only done once, ever, in the history of his ownership?

Might it be pursuing someone like George Springer to play right field and trading prized prospect Jo Adell as the centerpiece of a trade for a high-quality, controllable starter such as German Marquez, Zac Gallen, Matt Manning, or Luis Patino, for example? Or could Minasian take a wildly different route with roster construction and throw Shohei Ohtani into right field, the position he played for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, and flip the aforementioned Adell in a similar deal for another top-of-the-rotation starter and then sign Kyle Schwarber for the strong side platoon at the DH spot?

Perhaps the Indians come calling again on Brandon Marsh and the Halos flip him, along with Luis Rengifo and William Holmes, for a starter like Zach Plesac and a reliever like Nick Wittgren? Maybe something even more basic like a Luis Rengifo and Trent Deveaux for Carrasco-based deal?

The point is that if Arte fully enables Minasian to improve the team, now, there are assets in-place to bring in difference makers whether by free agency or trade.

Is it wise? Probably not if you are focusing on the long term health of the team like Eppler surely was. If you are Arte, however, the coronavirus pandemic may have made you think twice about the fragility of life; so pushing harder, now, may make more sense in the time you have left as the owner of the team.

We can only wait and see what happens. There will be a lot of potential for Monday-morning quarterbacking this off-season.

Expect: The current environment is highly unpredictable, but it does seem like Moreno is pressing, even in light of the financial situation. We believe there will be competitive moves made to improve the 2021 Angels odds of winning, including at least one high-profile deal, although it may not be a clear superstar. Be prepared to see one or more of our top prospects traded, as well. The 2021 Angels will likely be a better team, but it is really difficult to see all of the moving parts and through the fog of WAR, as we progress deeper into a rocky off-season. Odds are strong that Minasian stays somewhere between $5M-$10M under the Luxury Tax, in regard to off-season spending.

View the full article

[Chuck]

Great article, @ettin!

[ettin]

40 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Great article, @ettin!

I almost titled the Blog poll with Strategery, lol.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I would not expect the Angels to pursue Springer.

I also wonder just how much of the bad defense is on Maddon's deployment, vs actual bad defensive talent. Eppler seemed to put a premium on defense but it seems a handful of his moves were contributors to the bad result: Upton, Adell, La Stella, and Goodwin come to mind. 

[ettin]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I would not expect the Angels to pursue Springer.

I also wonder just how much of the bad defense is on Maddon's deployment, vs actual bad defensive talent. Eppler seemed to put a premium on defense but it seems a handful of his moves were contributors to the bad result: Upton, Adell, La Stella, and Goodwin come to mind. 

I actually agree about Springer too. I just think that Minasian is examining all ways to improve the team, even the outlandish ideas simply to understand what is and isn't possible.

[Warfarin]

13 hours ago, AngelsWin.com said:

Adell as the centerpiece of a trade for a high-quality, controllable starter such as German Marquez, Zac Gallen, Matt Manning, or Luis Patino, for example

Likely, the only one of this guys who is actually available is Marquez.

I think if the Rockies trade Marquez, they'll probably try to get someone to take on Blackman's remaining contract.

If Arte is willing to absorb more payroll, we could conceivably acquire Marquez + Blackman for, probably, Adell + nominal prospects.

Marquez would instantly become our ace and Blackman would be our LHH RF.  Marquez comes with 4 years of control, with an AAV of 8.6mil.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

Likely, the only one of this guys who is actually available is Marquez.

I think if the Rockies trade Marquez, they'll probably try to get someone to take on Blackman's remaining contract.

If Arte is willing to absorb more payroll, we could conceivably acquire Marquez + Blackman for, probably, Adell + nominal prospects.

Marquez would instantly become our ace and Blackman would be our LHH RF.  Marquez comes with 4 years of control, with an AAV of 8.6mil.

I'm not even sure if Marquez is avaliable.

"Márquez would certainly net them the biggest return in a trade, but the Rockies are hoarding him like a gold-plated diamond."

 

 

[Dave Saltzer]

Thanks for writing this Robert. I always look forward to and enjoy reading your articles.

[ettin]

On 12/10/2020 at 9:52 PM, Trendon said:

I'm not even sure if Marquez is avaliable.

"Márquez would certainly net them the biggest return in a trade, but the Rockies are hoarding him like a gold-plated diamond."

 

 

Really depends on what the Rockies are doing this season. I suspect they are going to try and compete (making Marquez off-limits now) and see where they are at before the Trade Deadline and then maybe they do a sell-off and reboot (where Marquez might be more available).

This off-season is really unpredictable because some of the mid and lower market teams have to move salary due to payroll concerns, which may make players you'd think were untouchable or hard-to-get, more available (or not but Hand, Iglesias, and others are examples of cost-cutting).

We'll see what happens but it seems pretty clear Minasian is ace-hunting and any of those names may (or again may not) be available, they were only suggestions of potential possibilities.

Edited December 13, 2020 by ettin

[Angelsjunky]

I suspect the strategy is pretty straightforward.

1. Try to sign Bauer. If that doesn't happen, move on to 2. If it does, move on to 3.

2. Try to acquire a #2-3 starter. Look at trade possibilities. If none materialize, go after one of Tanaka, Odorizzi, etc. Move on to 3.

3. Flesh out pitching staff. Signing any starters improves the bullpen, because it adds Sandoval to Iglesias, Buttrey, Mayers, Pena and Reyes. If the Angels don't land Bauer but one of the other guys, they've got another +10-15M to play with and can go after Hand or even Hendricks. 

4. While all of the above is happening, add a back-up/platoon catcher.

Of course there's numerous ways to do it, but the plan remains the same: add 1-2 starters, 2-3 relievers, 1 C, maybe one OF (we shouldn't forget Schebler, who can platoon with Ward until Adell or Marsh is ready).

[Tank]

On 12/10/2020 at 4:16 PM, Chuckster70 said:

Great article, @ettin!

I loved that moment.