Qualifying offer will be 18.9 million for Andrelton Simmons

[beatlesrule]

Do any Angels get it? Simmons is the only one I see being offered one.

[Blarg]

I doubt it. But we have no idea who the new GM will be and the new direction the team is headed. 

[Lazorko Saves]

Simba ain't getting so much as a Christmas card after quitting, let alone a check for $18.9m.

[Jay]

I have to agree, it doesn't look promising for Simmons.

[failos]

Hard pass.

[tdawg87]

Yeah that's far too risky. Simmons would probably take it banking on a bounce back year so he can get a multi-year deal in 2022.

That's about 13 million more than I'd want to offer him. We need pitching.

[eligrba]

That's crazy......you can get 2/3 of an Albert Pujols for that kind of money.

[Duren, Duren]

Simmons was a diminishing asset. The new wave of star shortstops are more athletic and versatile. In his prime he was a top tier player for his position and can still be good. If he was still under contract he would be the starter. But to pay him nearly $20 million now? Maybe a true contender would gamble if they thought he was an upgrade.

Fletcher isn't as flashy or with the same range, but is solid enough defensively and a much better offensive player. I was also getting tired of seeing Simmons on his knees after over swinging on pitches.

[rafibomb]

 

 

[Angelsjunky]

Not a chance. That's almost half of their alleged offseason budget. He'll probably get ~$12M AAV on the open market.

[kevinb]

gross no thanks

[DMVol]

Doesn't totally rule out the possibility that we could still sign him, for less that the QO....just not very likely....

[Inside Pitch]

11 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Not a chance. That's almost half of their alleged offseason budget. He'll probably get ~$12M AAV on the open market.

He counted as 8 mil vs the cap, that's probably the most the Angels should offer him per year to come back.  I have zero idea what realistic dollar figures are going to look like next year.

I wonder how many agents are going to advise their clients to hold off signing until MLB teams know whether or not they will be allowing fans into games.  Even uglier, try imagining the upheaval if some states open up and others don't.  Would open state teams be willing to offer more?  Its gonna be a trip.

[gotbeer]

$18.9 million is a lot to offer for a one year deal.

But he is 31.  So he may be looking for a multi year deal.  In this years free agent class, you have Semien who offensively seems similar to Simmonds, 2 years younger, but probably not as good of leather.  Gregorious on the other hand will be getting a lot of interest.  He really came back from TJ with a .827 OPS this season.  And he's one year younger.  Galvis also has similar numbers to Simmonds, but not the leather.  Final person listed by Cot's is Adrianza who isn't even in the running.  

So it's a really light SS class this season.  But if a team is looking for D at a premium position, he would be an excellent add.

Here is the tricky part the Angels have to maneuver.  $18.9 million QO.  That seems like a lot and way over what he will get.  Say he gets the $12 million that @Angelsjunky suggests.  Which is reasonable.  The thing is, it won't be a 1 year deal.  At 31, he'll be looking for a 3-5 year deal.  We see it every year, fringe QO players rejecting the offer, and signing for a lower amount per year.  

IMO, you offer him the QO.  It's a weak SS market, so teams will be offering.  He will probably reject the QO, because a one year deal at $18.9 million is probably not worth the risk, when he can sign a $36 to $60 million deal in FA'cy.   My guess is he goes to Philly.  That team was 5th in the league in Runs scored.  So scoring isn't their issue.  But they were 27th in the league in ERA.  So signing a premium glove up the middle at a low $12 million a season seems like a fit.  And for some reason, Simmons just seems more like a NL team fit.  

[Slegnaac]

If he rejects the QO and signs with another team, that team loses a draft pick?  If so, does he risk other teams not offering as much, or no offer as they don't want to lose a pick?

Edited October 8, 2020 by Slegnaac

[Dtwncbad]

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

He counted as 8 mil vs the cap, that's probably the most the Angels should offer him per year to come back.  I have zero idea what realistic dollar figures are going to look like next year.

I wonder how many agents are going to advise their clients to hold off signing until MLB teams know whether or not they will be allowing fans into games.  Even uglier, try imagining the upheaval if some states open up and others don't.  Would open state teams be willing to offer more?  Its gonna be a trip.

which means we're screwed in CA.  

there is no way in hell the Angels offer Simmons a QO.  I would barely consider giving him 19m over two years.  

[Warfarin]

Zero chance we offer the QO to Simmons.

[beatlesrule]

Wow, some of you here are really downplaying how good Simmons is. His defense alone kept us in many games over the years. I think he can definitely make more than 18.9 million. Even 3/33 is more guaranteed money. Hell, 2/25 is more etc.  Like it's been stated, not many SS on the market so I think offering him a QO is a no brainer. If he accepts, you have a guy trying to prove he is worth a bigger contract in 2022 and will be helping the pitching staff. If he gets at least a 2 WAR(I think his WAR will be higher), he is worth it. I don't know which teams need a SS though so there's that.

[Tank]

i have loved having simba on the team. what an amazing player to watch on defense night after night.

at $18.9 mil, i'm sure gonna miss him when he signs with the twins or tigers or whoever else.

[gotbeer]

1 hour ago, Slegnaac said:

If he rejects the QO and signs with another team, that team loses a draft pick?  If so, does he risk other teams not offering as much, or no offer as they don't want to lose a pick?

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer

So looking at the Phillies for instance, since they may be interested.  They were under the luxury tax.  So no 2nd and 5th highest selections.  I don't think they will lose the 3rd pick.  So they would lose their 2nd highest pick.  

So it's not as punishing as before where they lose a first rounder.  

[Junkballer]

25 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer

So looking at the Phillies for instance, since they may be interested.  They were under the luxury tax.  So no 2nd and 5th highest selections.  I don't think they will lose the 3rd pick.  So they would lose their 2nd highest pick.  

So it's not as punishing as before where they lose a first rounder.  

Not knowing which team will sign him and the range of compensatory draft pick possibly going down to the 4th round makes offering a QO a gamblers anonymous level bet.  The payout is unknown but possibly small.  Lose and possibly lose your budget to go after the players you really need.

[yk9001]

[gotbeer]

19 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

Not knowing which team will sign him and the range of compensatory draft pick possibly going down to the 4th round makes offering a QO a gamblers anonymous level bet.  The payout is unknown but possibly small.  Lose and possibly lose your budget to go after the players you really need.

I don't think the risk is very high at all.  Teams know each others needs.  With the example I made of Philly.  They are right against the cap, and Gregorious is probably going to take a stack to sign him.  So they are going to need a quality replacement.  They could get that for cheaper than they paid Gregorious in Simmonds.  And Philly is the only team I even looked at, I'm sure there are others that need a SS.  

[Junkballer]

14 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

I don't think the risk is very high at all.  Teams know each others needs.  With the example I made of Philly.  They are right against the cap, and Gregorious is probably going to take a stack to sign him.  So they are going to need a quality replacement.  They could get that for cheaper than they paid Gregorious in Simmonds.  And Philly is the only team I even looked at, I'm sure there are others that need a SS.  

The risk is Simmons taking the 19 mil QO thinking if he has a great season he could be on the market again the following year with the 2021 overpay offsetting the possible loss of value of the next contract for being a year older.