Fish Oil

This is a great opportunity for him, aside from the catcher’s interference and a few throws into center, he’s doing well.  Circumstances are changed without O’Hoppe and Thaiss has a chance to earn more playing time.  I’m rooting for him!

I feel like the Stros have fallen off a little from where they were, but they're still the team to beat until someone takes it away from them. Mariners feel just a bit overrated to me, and I'm not buying the Rangers. Texas has made no real change at offense, and their team wRC+ was in the bottom half of the league. Their fans point to runs scored, but that isn't predictive, it's luck. I also am skeptical of their rotation. The talent is there, but they feel like the Angels a few years ago: Betting big on glass arms. If everything comes up right for them, then sure, they've got a shot, but I won't believe it till I see it. Angels are getting written off, but they were a good team last year until their lack of depth sunk them. Now they have depth, which should help keep their top guys fresh with more off days available that don't compromise the day-to-day lineup. I wouldn't bet on the Angels to win the division, but I wouldn't be absolutely shocked if they somehow managed it. 

This would be good if those were electrodes that zap him every time he goes after a slider in the dirt. 

It is a fair observation that OHoppe himself was not drafted and initially developed by the Angels.
But at the same time I care about the team producing “homegrown” players primarily because I want the result to be an inexpensive controllable impact player.
So yes you can’t give the Angels credit for drafting him and initially developing him, but I have give the team credit for drafting and initially developing the player that was good enough to get OHoppe.
Is OHoppe “homegrown”?  The best answer is no.
Is OHoppe not being homegrown an indication the Angels are not good at producing homegrown talent?  No.  They drafted and developed Marsh and swapped him for OHoppe. That’s a wash.

By Jonathan Northrop, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer
Introduction: It Can't Be Worse
While we just tipped over into the second half of January, which means we're still several weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting (February 14) and two and a half months from Opening Day (March 30), it is still the new year, and it seems that the Angels are--barring a surprise move--mostly done in assembling their 2023 team.
How does the team look? What can we expect and reasonably hope for? One thing this post will not be is a Debby Downer rant about worst-case scenarios and the poor moves of past and present management. I will try to be as objective as possible, but err towards the side of how good the team can reasonably be, if more things go right than wrong.
Injuries happen. Players have bad years. But players also have good years, and it is unusual that a team suffers the almost uncanny combination of bad luck and injury that the 2022 team experienced, essentialized in their 14-game losing streak. Chances are, no matter how bad it gets in 2023, it won't get that bad. And GM Perry Minasian has put a lot of work--and fair amount of money--into preventing a repeat of that debacle.
 
1. The Angels vs. the World Champions
What has Minasian done this offseason? Well, he's lifted the floor on the team substantially. The Angels poor performance in 2022 can be visually expressed like so:


Now it might not be fair to compare the Angels to the World Champions, but on the other hand, if you're trying to build a contender, one important tactic is to look at successful teams and, most importantly, how they succeeded and, if possible, trying to emulate that. 
What are you looking at? The two charts compare the Angels and Astros, first in hitting as represented through wRC+, secondly in pitching as represented by FIP. The striking difference between the two teams in both charts is perhaps best characterized not by the best players, but by the worst - namely, the number of poor performers on the Angels, and the visual "real estate" they take up on the charts.
Perhaps the most glaring problem the Angels had is the huge number of plate appearances given to bad hitters: Their first four hitters by plate appearance were all plus performers, but the next seven were negative; and after the first four, only one out of the next seventeen was average or above.
Compare that to the Astros: six out of their first seven were average or above, and seven out of their first ten. The mass of below average performers on the ride side of the first graph make up a fraction of the Angels' comparable section.
We see a similar phenomena with the pitchers, although in some ways it is even more striking in that the Astros only had two pitchers with below average FIP that were given substantial playing time, and one of them--Jose Urquidy--still managed about a league average ERA of 3.94.
Meaning, the Astros weren't sending (almost) any poor pitchers to the mound, while the Angels were shuffling through a bunch of them.
If you're the GM of a baseball team, you look at ways to improve controllable outcomes, of which injuries are (for the most part) not. Meaning, Minasian has very little say in whether or not Anthony Rendon gets hurt or how Mike Trout ages, or even whether Taylor Ward decides to crash into a wall. But what he does have some control over, is how the roster is configured.
So Minasian's big task this offseason was to turn as much of the "purple" into "green." There are specific needs to be addressed, but in its most simply--yet still comprehensive form--that's what was required.
The big question, of course, is how successful was he? In mid January, we cannot know. We might now come May, but even then it might not be until about mid-season that we have a sense of whether the "Minasian Plan" (Or Minasian Gambit?) worked. What did he do?
2. Minasian's Moves
First, let's talk about what he did not do: He didn't sign any big free agents or make any huge trades. Everything he did was minor to moderate, in terms of resources. The total result was the equivalent of signing a big free agent and some scraps, but no single move did any of the following:
Give a player $20M+ per year* Sign a player for more than three years Give up any top 10 (or even top 20) prospects I asterisked the first, because he did give Ohtani a one-year deal worth $30M. Ohtani was due for a big arbitration pay day that would probably have earned him a bit less, but we can consider this as a bit of a good-will deed. 
What did Minasian do? Well, here's a list:
Signed Shohei Ohtani for 1/$30M Signed SP Tyler Anderson for 3/$39M Traded Janson Junk, Elvis Peguero, and Adam Seminaris to the Brewers for OF Hunter Renfroe Signed IF Brandon Drury for 2/$17M Traded Alejandro Hidalgo to the Twins for IF Gio Urshela Signed RP Carlos Estevez for 2/$13.5M Signed OF Brett Phillips for 1/$1.2M Plus a bunch of minor league acquisitions As you can see, other than Ohtani, there is not a true star in sight. What the above list includes are a handful of quality, major league regulars and solid bench/platoon players.
The Angels Opening Day 26-man payroll is estimated at $188M, $7M higher than last year; similarly, the CB Tax 40-man payroll is $207M, $8M higher than 2022.
3. 2022 vs. 2023: What Will Be Different?
A lot remains the same, but some significant factors have changed. Essentially what has happened is:
The Angels have swapped out Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell (608 PA, 0.7 WAR) for Hunter Renfroe (522 PA, 2.5 WAR) Swapped Andrew Velazquez, Matt Duffy, Tyler Wade, Jack Mayfield, Michael Stefanic, Jose Rojas, Jonathan Villar, Phil Gosselin and David MacKinnon (1099 PA, -3.3 WAR) for Gio Urshela and Brandon Drury (1119 PA, 5.4 WAR) Tyler Anderson (178.2 IP, 4.0 WAR in 2022) has replaced Noah Syndergaard/Michael Lorenzen (177.2 IP, 2.2 WAR). Carlos Estevez (57 IP, 0.4 WAR) is replacing a variety of pitchers, including half a year of Raisel Iglesias (35.2 IP, 0.7 WAR) Replaced Magneuris Sierra, Juan Lagares, and Mickey Moniak (220 PA, -0.9 WAR) with Brett Phillips (225 PA, 0.1 WAR) OK, before you protest, note that I am not saying that we can simply take last year's numbers and switch them out like that. But I am saying that this is essentially what is happening in terms of playing time, without even looking at injuries; I included some stats to give. For instance, we don't know how much players like Rendon, Trout, Ward, and Fletcher will play in 2023, or at what level. Catcher is also a big question mark: which version of Max Stassi will show up, and who will share catching duties with him?
But....if you do swap out those players, you get a +12.8 WAR swing, about two-thirds of which (+8.7 WAR) is coming from the infield. 
What does a +12.8 WAR swing look like for the Angels? Well, if we just take the raw numbers, that adds about 13 wins and the Angels go from 73-89 to 86-76.
Again, it isn't so simple as that - and things always turn out differently than planned. But that is still the basic idea behind these moves: replace sub-par performance with--at least--solid, league average performance.
Minasian's moves this offseason could pay huge dividends, especially in the infield, where the Angels gave about two full season's worth of playing time to -3.3 WAR performance, most of which was due to poor hitting. Even if the Angels can replace that -3.3 WAR with slightly above replacement level play, they add four or more wins.
4. Two (or Three) Factors for Success in 2023
The Angels 2023 season is mostly banking on two factors:
One, the above mentioned changes work out mostly as hoped. They don't have to work out completely, but just for the most part. 
Two, better health - and not just Trout and Rendon, but Fletcher, Ward, Canning, Rodriguez, etc. Last year the Angels got only 166 games from their two highest paid players, Trout and Rendon. In 2021, it was 94 games - so if we want to find a silver lining, at least we're trending in the right direction. But they really need more from these two, and while the farm system is on a positive trajectory, there simply isn't the offensive talent waiting in the wings to make up the difference.
I would add a third that is less necessary but could swing the team significantly:
Three, positive minor league developments, namely players graduating and performing in the majors. This could include better health and performance from guys like Canning and Rodriguez, a breakout performance from Logan O'Hoppe, some of the plethora of pitching prospects in the high minors graduating and performing well. Meaning, something, someone...anything!
Summing Up
The Angels team has a lot of talent. While it may be unlikely given recent track records, there's a scenario in which the very similar Renfroe (124 wRC+, 29 HR) and Drury (123 wRC+, 28 HR) aren't, even repeating last year's performances, among the top four or five hitters on the team. It requires Trout and Rendon to be healthy, Ohtani to stay healthy, and Ward to at least repeat something similar to last year's performance (137 wRC+). Add in a potential bounce back from Jared Walsh, and the Angels could have a lineup that features seven players hitting 20+ HR, with 120 wRC+ or better...and that isn't even considering continued improvement from Luis Rengifo (103 wRC+, 17 HR), a bounce-back from Stassi or breakout from O'Hoppe.
The rotation looks, at the very least, quite solid, with the potential to be very good. There are a wide range of outcomes for the bullpen, so it bears watching. But the Angels have a lot of minor league arms to draw from, as well as (hopefully) a healthy Chris Rodriguez and Griffin Canning.
There are no certainties in major league baseball (or life), but we can at least look at the Angels and say that this team has a chance to be very good - and maybe even better. But the risk is there; they're as likely to win 80 games as they are 90 but, I would say, more likely to win 95 than 75. The talent is there.

Yes - the pro-rated version counts towards their tax.  So, since he is having 50 games of pay withheld, that means they are being charged 112/162 = 69% of his pay (that can't be a coincidence lol).  Think his AAV was 34mil/yr, so that means they are on the hook for roughly 23mil this year.
I am going to assume that Manfred or someone informed them of the decision coming a few weeks ago.  They were very quiet all winter, then suddenly signed both Syndergaard and JD Martinez to contracts that, when combined with the above figure, takes them literally right underneath the luxury tax.
The Dodgers weren't blindsided by this decision, they have known for weeks.

I feel like the unpaid suspension was a back room deal to benefit the Dogs who probably expressed to the league that they were going to release him no matter what.  So they did them a favor.  It seemed like it was more based on the fact that Bauer wasn't and isn't sorry and essentially wouldn't eat shit because he was thoroughly convinced he did nothing wrong.  
So essentially the league couldn't get him to apologize for being a sexual weirdo in the eyes of most.   So they punished him because it caused them bad press.  

I think it was @Trendonwho noticed that Maddon's book talked about Minasian trying to get Marsh to work on a swing change and Maddon was causing problems over it. First thing after he gets traded, the Phillies hitting coach notices an issue, has Marsh tweak something in his swing, and he starts hitting a decent bit better. 
Also worth noting that Maddon was upset about Ward privately using analytics to work on his swing and claimed that Ward improved when he gave that up. But Ward said actually it was after that when he went even more into analytics to work on his swing that he really improved. 
Maddon's book indicated that certain coaches under him had complaints about the intrusion of the front office into coaching matters. Coincidentally, after the season, the hitting coaches were all let go and replaced.
Bottom line, I think Maddon and the hitting coaches were holding the team back a lot and preventing progress from being made. Maddon was too stuck in the past and couldn't accept the way things are done these days. Hopefully the offense will improve more as a result of the coaching staff being more directly connected and in sync with the front office. 

I think there were a few Angels last year that really struggled with whatever the hitting instructors were teaching. Walsh, Stassi, Marsh, Adell and others seemed to have a really weird approach where they were taking fastballs over the plate (even on two strike counts) and swinging at off speed pitches that were not close to the plate. I am hopeful the new hitting coaches in Anaheim and at SLC can help Adell improve his approach.  Marsh looked better in just a short time with the Phillies although still looked lost part of the time.  Give Adell the time to make some adjustments with hopefully a better instructor(s) and see if he can become a better player for next year.   Not sure we can get much for him now.

Thaiss had a pop time of 1.99 last year, with Stassi at 2.03 and Suzuki 2.07.  I know that’s just a slice of things but it’s data.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/poptime

Base runs had us at -8 wins relative to what was more likely statistically.  Makes some sense relative to the bottom of the order and crappy bullpen.  But some of that is just straight up bad luck.  I think both have improved considerably.  To the point that once the season ended I'm comfortable saying they're were about an 80 win team walking into the off season.  I think they've improved to 85 wins.  And with average health, maybe 87-88.  
I think there's easily another 3-5 wins with a couple things happening.  
Above average health
Improved depth at SS, OF, SP or a top notch reliever
What I would consider reasonable progression of several SP and RP arms currently on the major league club and/or in the minors.  
Other things I think less likely
Substantial progression from the SP and RP pool 
The light goes on for Adell or Moniak or Neto or Ohoppe and they become very good starters at this point in their careers (not saying they eventually won't)
Fletcher reverts to 2019/2020 form
Excellent health across the board
A couple things that are of concern still
Of course if Ohtani or Trout miss substantial time we're screwed
Poor health or performance from 1b AND 3b or the MIF and/or one of the corner OF spots.  
A drop in production from our young starters
The unproven depth for the pen and no legit elite reliever/closer.   
It's more than reasonable to project a playoff team here with some simple additions.  Way more so than in recent past.  
 

I would say if a prospective owner can’t afford to give Ohtani a number that keeps him, then they don’t have the correct buyer.

Ohtani has already said he's open to it

I really like this move along with the others, but it sure feels like Correa or Swanson would round this team off. 

Turner, Bogaerts or Correa!! Let’s fucking go! 

Quinlan was a great bench bat for a couple seasons. He tailed off and was overused a bit, but dude was great depth for awhile.

I guess the dodgers dont either since they were willing to give him the QO in the first place. They must have thought he could give somewhat similar production again in 2023 for them. How you can call a 3 year 39 million dollar deal as brutal is rather much. Its a signing that doesnt deserve much attention at the end of the day, maybe in hindsight it will deserve such attention. 

Trading Rengifo is like trading Marsh. You could really fuck that up for the Angels long term if it didn't work out. I look at Rengifo as Erick Aybar with more power and basepath speed.
Now, tell me all about a better fit for the Angels. Elvis Andrus isn't that guy. He is 34 and has never hit well, a shortstop on the decline. Exactly what you don't want, a name from 10 years ago that never got better. 

All the food vendors at Angel Stadium should switch to plant-based products only.
Hot dogs should be banned outright because they're shaped like a penis, the symbol of male oppression.

I remember this dude named Steinbrenner...
 
Just sayin...

I was there with halonatic13. Literally top row, but I was there. During the 7th inning stretch it felt like it was done and I was trying to convince myself it was a great season no matter what. Giants' fans were beginning to take over the stadium with their cheering. For the first and probably last time ever I actually prayed for God's involvement in a game. Pretty silly. 
From our seats I thought Spiezio's HR was a pop-up and I was screaming for it to go foul. 
After the Erstad HR in 8th for some reason it felt like a done deal. 
Greatest game I've ever been to. 

Mets!
otherwise on of the more unusual playoff teams, Mariners or Cleveland. 
 
anyone but the Yankees. 

Signing Judge will be paying him for what he did in a Yankee uniform, and all he's going to do here is begin his decline and be hurt all the time. 

What about Rengifo?  

Billy Eppler was a fantastic general manager. The best this organization has had outside of Stoneman. The W/L record won't show it, but the organization he inherited versus the organization he left had stark differences.