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Hubs

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  1. Like
    Hubs reacted to fan_since79 in Josh Hamilton set for Cactus League debut Monday   
    How about this? (insanely positive prediction)
     
    OPS
     
    Pujols .925
    Hamilton .900
    Trout  1.100
     
    Angels:  900 Runs Scored
  2. Like
    Hubs reacted to Chuckster70 in Mike Scioscia: Leading the Angels from the Front   
    Don't get comfortable with the way the floor has been open to throw tantrums or troll your agenda's (i.e, Pujols, Scioscia, Dipoto hate etc.) going forward. Things are changing around here.

    We will be announcing the new and improved AngelsWin.com experience soon. It is our desire to create a better environment for everyone here, not just for you to bitch and moan. I don't mind ranting and voicing strong opinions, we've always accepted that here. The shoutbox was designed for rants but was rarely used and the board was flooded with non-stop complaints and regurgitated hyperbole.

    But I've heard enough from longstanding members of this forum over the past few years that they don't post in the main forum anymore due to the negativity and constant trolling on certain players/coaches/manager..

    I've basically come to a point, and not just me, my Mods too, where if you don't like the new rules that will be enforced going forward you can leave. There's always Facebook, Twitter or another Angels Blog you can post on.

    Less is of the negativity is more and there's others dying to post again after the negative opinion and voice goes away. I'm not talking about normal groaning and moaning when Jepsen leaves a ball up on an 0-2 count with 2 outs and runners on base, every fan will raise their voices in frustration over that. I'm talking about the daily ripping, hell vilifying on Scioscia, Pujols, Dipoto etc. win or lose. It is called trolling which is against our code of conduct that I have let slide for far too long. The result is a negative tone that has been established here that most of our members and lurkers are sick of. I know, I get the PM's and emails.

    Oh and most of these people that are the detractors of the Angels or certain players/managers never show up at our events, never give to our charities or even send a thank you note for the free website and service we provide for you all.

    Lastly, while it hasn't helped that the team has missed the playoffs the past four years, I never in my life have seen so much crying and negativity as I have the past two years. I've been a fan since '79 so I endured the worst of consecutive seasons, yet I still went to the games, still hoped for wins and never went on and on about the same things that some of you go off on on a regular basis.
  3. Like
    Hubs reacted to LightTheHalo in John McDonald   
    Howie Kendrick is the backup 1B.
  4. Like
    Hubs got a reaction from Ohtaniland in Grant Green defense   
    Bench in April:
     
    Conger (S)
    Green (RH)
    Romine (S) 
    Shuck (LH) 
  5. Like
    Hubs reacted to wopphil in Scioscia may go with 8 relievers to start the season   
    We won't need a fifth starter until April 15, so he could go with a twelve man staff the first two weeks - four starters, eight guys in the pen. 
     
    I just don't see how they can go with a thirteen man staff and have such a thin bench. 
  6. Like
    Hubs reacted to Mark68 in Has it become an Angels norm that the first month of the season doesn't matter?   
    I think that is missing the forest for the trees, however. If a team has a bad month, it makes it that much harder to win 97 games. Especially the first month, which puts you in a big hole that you spend much of the season digging out of.
  7. Like
    Hubs got a reaction from nmh in Angels don’t have to wait until Opening Day with Trout   
    The CBT takes only AAV into account. They divide signing bonuses up equally for the length of the contract, despite how they are actually paid out.
     
    The CBT also accounts for payroll beyond the top 25 players, the 15 players not on the 25, but on the 40 man get counted for a specific salary depending on their experience, and also they use some of the $189 million for pension and benefits.
  8. Like
    Hubs got a reaction from maximus p in Jose Mota's English is in the best shape of its life   
    I don't understand how people like Mota or Vic the Brick or anyone who doesn't have a smooth, easy delivery on the mic gets a job as a broadcaster. 
     
    I miss Rex. 
  9. Like
    Hubs got a reaction from LBHalos17 in Jose Mota's English is in the best shape of its life   
    I don't understand how people like Mota or Vic the Brick or anyone who doesn't have a smooth, easy delivery on the mic gets a job as a broadcaster. 
     
    I miss Rex. 
  10. Like
    Hubs got a reaction from DW711 in Capuano talking to Mariners...   
    Capuano is not any better than Blanton. 
     
    I advocated strongly for guys like Dan Haren, Tim Hudson, Bronson Arroyo, etc. They were better options early in the offseason. I'd also have kept Jerome Williams because a) arbitration salaries are not guaranteed until the first day of the regular season. They could have retained him, and cut him if they signed better starter. While he wasn't excellent last year, he is at least depth.
  11. Like
    Hubs got a reaction from Ohtaniland in Arte notes   
    Arte will try to stay, but if he moves the team to Downtown LA, (Irvine is too far south) or Carson or City of Industry or wherever else, the NFL will jump on Anaheim Stadium land. 
  12. Like
    Hubs reacted to Blarg in Pujols and Three Ball Counts   
    Hubs, after presenting information you asked the readers 9 questions which were not answered.
  13. Like
    Hubs reacted to tdawg87 in Pujols and Three Ball Counts   
    I'll read this when I get home but I did just want to compliment Hubs for always putting a ton of thought and effort into his threads/posts. I don't always agree with everything you say but you never have an argument that isn't worth reading.
  14. Like
    Hubs reacted to WallyWorld in Pujols and Three Ball Counts   
    definite double-take on this thread title
  15. Like
    Hubs got a reaction from Vegas Halo Fan in Jim Fregosi Suffers Stroke - Taken Off Life Support   
    To be fair to Mike DiGiovanna if someone is taken off life support, this is usually not a case of good news. It likely means they expect him to not be able to live. And the family has made the decision not to keep him alive with a breathing machine.
     
    This is not the same as reporting that he has been taken off life support because he is doing well and breathing on his own. 
  16. Like
    Hubs got a reaction from Jim in What should the batting order be?   
    I did say to ignore Trout being an option hitting third in this lineup, because I do not believe it is a viable option for 2014, maybe in 2015 or 2016, but not in 2014. Pujols or Hamilton is your #3 batter for the majority of this season. That will only change if they have viable experienced options in the leadoff spot and #2 spot, which they do not have right now. I said in the OP, that Calhoun has nearly zero experience as the leadoff guy, whilst Trout has most of his experience there. Calhoun has usually been the best hitter on the team, and usually hits 2nd or 3rd in the minors. 
     
    I will say that the last season the Angels had a leadoff hitter hit for power, the Angels scored 864 runs. Granted that was a different era, but to say that the Angels are wasting Trout's power in the leadoff spot is not true. This was in 2000 when Erstad had an OPS+ of 137, hit .355 with 25 HR. Yes it was the steroid ERA and teams scored more runs, I understand that, that's why I use OPS+.  Our #2 hitters combined for a OPS+ of 94 from that spot, but there wasn't a set person in that spot. Our #3 hitter, Mo Vaughn, hit .272 with an OPS plus of 115. Tim Salmon hit 4th with an OPS+ of 135 and Garrett Anderson followed hitting to an OPS+ of 103. Glaus hit mostly 6th that year and had the best stats on the team.
     
    I bring this up for comparison purposes only, but Trout had an OPS+ last year of 179. In 2012, it was 168.
     
    I'd expect him to do this again, but even at a slight regression he'd still be awesome. Calhoun's Major League OPS+ last year was 128. Significantly better than the performance of our #2 batter in 2000. Pujols had an OPS+ of 138 in 2012, and was down last year primarily due to his foot injury. Hamilton has no excuse, but in the second half, he hit to an OPS+ of 125. 
     
    My point with all these numbers is to say that the Angels are well positioned to have success from the 1-9 batters in their lineup. Even their worst regular batter, Aybar, isn't a bad hitter by any means, and should carry OPS+ above 90, and could have a good year above 105. Only a few SS each year will outperform that number.
     
    Here's the projected lineup with OPS+ from 2013, plus also their best single season mark from the last three years.
     
    Trout +179 (best)
    Calhoun +128 (best)
    Pujols +116 (+148 in 2011)
    Hamilton +108 (+130 in 2011)
    Freese +101 (+129 in 2012)
    Ibanez +128 (best)
    Kendrick + 118 (+126 in 2011)
    Iannetta +109 (best)
    Aybar +93 (+110 in 2011)
  17. Like
    Hubs reacted to WallyWorld in What should the batting order be?   
    1) not Aybar
    2) not Aybar
    3) not Aybar
    4) not Aybar
    5) not Aybar
    6) not Aybar
    7) not Aybar
    8) not Aybar
    9) Aybar
  18. Like
    Hubs reacted to NorCal Halo in What should the batting order be?   
    Call me old school, but I like the speediest, best base stiller at the leadoff, and a high-onbase left-handed hitter on deck.
  19. Like
    Hubs got a reaction from Halos of Anaheim in Freeman Contract (and what it means to Trout)   
    Freeman is entering his first year of arbitration. His contract basically paid him for last season's performance when he finished fifth in the NL MVP voting. His first two years weren't nearly as good.
     
    I bring this up only to show all the Trout extension people what the Braves paid for a young player to acquire 5 free agent years and all three arbitration years.
     
    The article I read says that even if you assume that he would've taken home $30 M for the three arbitration years, which is a high estimate, they paid an AAV of $21 M for his five free agent years. Is Freeman a $21M a year player? Maybe by the first free agent year, but they are certainly gambling on potential here. 
     
    It's not as bad as the Andrus contract, that was a gigantic waste of money for a guy who doesn't even hit well. Andrus is the superior fielder to Aybar, but Aybar has hit better, and considering that they guaranteed $90M more to him over what 8 years? 
     
    But back to Freeman/Trout. Trout has one more year of club control where they can set his salary. Next offseason, they are going to go for his first year of arbitration. Similar to Freeman, that would be a point where you can extend him for eight years, seeing if he'll sell his first five free agent years to get a little security.
     
    Will his contract blow Freeman's out of the water? Surely. Freeman as I said earlier didn't perform to the level of year three in years one and two. Arbitration hearings take into account the two previous years, not just the year prior. The Braves I think filed in the mid $4M range and he countered with just over $6M.
     
    Now Trout is sure to file for $12M+ to set the record for a first year arbitration case. Maybe as high as $15M. Now the Angels are likely to counter around $10M. Trout's 2nd year was better than his first and if his third year is better than his second, he'll have cause for that kind of dough.
     
    Even if you assume that Trout will set records in all three free agent years and then be on par with Kershaw for his free agent seasons, that contract looks like maybe as high as $60M in arbitration and then $30M annually? 8/210? Maybe a discount to 8/200?
     
    I'd say the Angels have the leverage here, as they don't have to extend him, so they can try to get some sort of discount if they try next offseason to extend him. I don't think they'll sign him to a $300 M contract, unless they don't extend him until his final year, before free agency, but still, this Freeman contract shows how much teams are willing to reward success at a young age.
     
    Buster Posey currently came in higher and there is one other player that got more guaranteed money after year three in the majors, but I can't recall. 
     
     
     
     
     
  20. Like
    Hubs got a reaction from jangel7 in Offense is the Answer to Rotation Uncertainty   
    The Angels rotation is definitely a little tentative with the starters currently slated for the rotation. Could they have used Garza or Tanaka or even Dan Haren? Sure. Would they benefit from a guy like Arroyo or Hammel? Sure. 
     
    Yet the real help to this team is offense. 
     
    Over the past four seasons, from 2010-2013, the Angels have scored 681, 667, 767, 733 runs.
     
    Compare that to the four year stretch before that from 2006-2009: 766, 822, 765, 883 runs.
     
    While offense as a whole is less than in previous seasons, and the Angels did score more runs than some playoff teams, it should be noted that the Red Sox scored 853 runs last year and the Cardinals were third with 783. (Tigers were second).
     
    Even with a good pitching staff, it's important to score runs. The Angels need to have consistency in their run production. With a lineup that features probably the best player in the game, in addition to two former MVP's, offense should come easy...
     
    But too often last year it didn't.
     
    We had some great games offensively, and some terrible ones. Never quite got on a hot streak the way the Dodgers, Red Sox and Cardinals all did.
     
    It's even more important for the Angels to produce offensively than those other teams because those other teams have better rotations and bullpens. 
     
    I think this group of Angels can lead the league in runs scored this year. And if they do, rotation shortcomings won't matter as much. 
     
    Even a repeat of last years relatively ineffective rotation would be fine if they scored 820+ runs. 
     
    Yet, again, scoring 850-870 runs while allowing 700 is going to get them into the playoffs. I'd like to see the rotation allow 450, the pen allow 180, and the offense score 800+, but that's a lofty goal.
     
    Still, David Freese, Raul Ibanez, and Kole Calhoun (Plus Pujols being back) is going to significantly increase the offense from a year ago. Yes JB Shuck had an okay season, but he shouldn't have played as much as he did. Peter Bourjos is a better offensive player and I think Calhoun is better than that. Calhoun over Shuck is a huge upgrade. Hopefully Ibanez gives them the same as Trumbo did last year in a poor year, and perhaps Grant Green gets some of that playing time as a right handed DH option. Together, they should outproduce Trumbo. And Freese should significantly improve over the revolving door at 3rd. 
     
    So maybe I'm being optimistic, but if they stay relatively injury free, this group can produce some pretty great numbers offensively. And if they do that, the rotation is not going to be as much of an issue.
     
  21. Like
    Hubs got a reaction from Troll Daddy in Could Angels land Tanaka in a stunner? (MLB.com article)   
    Let's not confuse the facts here everyone. Trout does not need to be extended this offseason. He is the Angels property for four more seasons. 
     
    Trout can be paid the league minimum, it's the way the collective bargaining agreement is written. I think they should give him more, but not substantially more, as that sets a bad precedent.
     
    They paid Frankie I think 150k more than the minimum in his 3rd year. They paid Anderson and Salmon both 2-3 times the minimum in their third years, but that could've been on extensions. They paid Weaver less than 100k more than the minimum in their third year. Same thing for Kendrick and Aybar.
     
    Look for them to renew Trout at 600-630k. That's it. Next year, he'll set an arbitration record of perhaps 12 million. That's it. After that, he could go up to 18. And after that, he could get 20+. 
     
    If they wanted to they could sign him to a three year extension, which would give him some money now, and afford the Angels some savings in years 2 & 3. They won't sign him to a massive extension this offseason.
     
    Say, three years, 27 Million. AAV of 9. Which would leave them under the CBT by only 10M or so. Which means they'd exceed the CBT if they sign Tanaka.
  22. Like
    Hubs got a reaction from jangel7 in Could Angels land Tanaka in a stunner? (MLB.com article)   
    I did the very complex AAV CBT math, and basically the Angels can afford to sign Tanaka for up to a $20 M AAV and be in just under the luxury tax. This assumes a roster with 10 league minimum guys. If they pay some of these guys more (Trout, Conger, Richards) then perhaps they'd have to cut Salas or Jepsen and replace them with someone making the league minimum.
     
    Now, this assumes that Freese, Frieri, Jepsen, and Salas get the exact salary projected by MLB Trade Rumors. I assumed they cut Blanton but are still on the hook for his entire salary. 
     
    It assumes no player who has incentives earns them. This is unlikely. Yet, no player has any big dollar incentives that would be earned against this year's CBT except Raul Ibanez. The total of all of the other players bonus would equal what Raul can earn which is 2.25 M. 
     
    Now, they can trade a player midseason, and make up some bonus money, like Iannetta, if they really don't want to go over the tax.
     
    As for Trout's extension, it's not necessary for four more years, and even if he sets records in Arbitration, they'd still not likely go over the CBT in any other year, except possibly 2015. But I doubt that, as they'd be about $7.5 million short of the CBT in 2015 if they do not sign any free agents, and kept Burnett but not Salas or Jepsen. If they kept all of those guys, they'd still not likely exceed it.
     
    Consider that for the next two years you'd be set in the pen (as it's the only place the Angels do have minor league depth), the rotation (Weaver, Wilson, Tanaka, RIchards, Skaggs), the outfield (Trout, Hamilton, Calhoun) and Infield (Pujols, Kendrick, Aybar, Freese), and Catcher (Conger/Ianetta), and at DH (Ibanez /Cron/Green)…where do you need to spend money?
     
    In 2016, Kendrick, Iannetta, Burnett, and Freese are free agents and most can be replaced by current minor leaguers in LIndsey, Maronde, and Cowart… the only spot the Angels will need to look at is Catcher and maybe DH.
     
    In 2017, they'd have more issues with Weaver, Wilson, Frieri, Aybar and Smith being free agents but Stamets or Rondon could be ready to fill in for Aybar, plus they have pitching depth to replace Frieri and Smith… they'd need to look at the rotation, which by that point they could resign one of their two starters (Weaver) and still be well under the cap to add another starter, or anywhere else they wanted to add someone new.
     
    In 2018, Trout and Hamilton will be FA, as well as Conger and Richards, but they should have the money to resign all of them if they wanted to, though I'd think Hamilton will be gone. Even with Trout getting $30 Million per season, Tanaka getting $20, and Pujols getting $24 they'd still have more than 90M in room depending on the CBT number. 
     
    Tanaka is affordable, because they have young players in the majors now, making next to nothing. It might be a squeeze for 2014, but 2015 and all future years look good if they can draft well, and players in their system at least turn out to be regulars or bench depth. 
  23. Like
    Hubs got a reaction from Halos of Anaheim in To the people who don't want Tanaka..   
    Trouts not getting a raise this year if they sign a pitcher. He doesn't need to. The Angels own his rights for four more seasons. I'd advocate a two year extension for cap purposes, but that's unlikely to happen.
  24. Like
    Hubs got a reaction from GregAlso in Tanaka: Why the Angels need to go after him with every thing they've got   
    There are a lot of unknowns in signing any player. Especially from Japan. But is he really worth what he will cost?
     
    Answer: Yes.
     
    While Tanaka's stuff isn't quite as good as fellow countrymen Yu Darvish or Dice-K, he has similar stuff. There are reservations about his ability to pitch from the stretch, and reservations about his somewhat flat, hittable fastball. 
     
    What should calm those fears is his impeccable control, which should definitely translate. His secondary pitch and tertiary pitch are legitimate major league out pitches, something that Dice-K struggled with. He doesn't have a long delivery like Dice-K, and he doesn't throw as many pitches as Darvish, allowing him to pitch deep into games. He's like Dan Haren in that respect, and should throw into the seventh or eighth or ninth inning in every start. Can't say that about Matt Garza.
     
    Also, while he throws four different pitches and experiments with a few others, his main two weapons are fastball-splitter. I am referencing an article from bleacher report on this, but he quoted a lot of sources that seem legit. 
     
    So if he is a fastball-splitter type, he has more in common with Hisanori Iwakuma and Koji Uhera than the other two Japanese pitchers. I'm sure that there are American starters to which he has a lot of similar traits, it's often the case that we compare Japanese to Japanese, and that's not right, but in this case it's valid.
     
    The conclusion drawn in the bleacher report article is that his splitter will be an absolute nightmare on lefty hitters, just as Iwakuma and Uhera have been. Mark Saxon said in an LA Times Article that Tanaka has the best splitter in the world, and while that may be an exaggeration, if it's true, he's worth every penny. 
     
    We all saw the domination of Koji Uehera this year with the Red Sox once he started throwing that splitter for strikes. He also thrived in the closer role. 
     
    Looking over the AL West, who are the best hitters?
     
    Obviously Trout, Pujols, Hamilton on the Angels come to mind. The A's have Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss to go along with Cespedes and Jed Lowrie. The Rangers have new acquisition Prince Fielder to go with Adrian Beltre and may sign Shin-Soo Choo. The Mariners signed Cano, traded for Logan Morrison, signed Cory Hart and have Kyle Seager. The Astros have Castro, Carter, etc.
     
    Most of those guys are left handed.
     
    Also, did I mention he has a plus change-up?
     
    The Angels need to sign a pitcher to take pressure off Santiago and Skaggs (as well as Richards) but a journeyman/#3/#4 starter is not the way to go. They don't have the assets to trade for David Price, who is a comparable pitcher to Tanaka if he translates well.
     
    And to those who worry about his inning count, that's the nature of Japanese baseball. They also throw a ton of pitches between starts, though they don't make as many starts as their MLB brethren. 
     
    Wouldn't you rather have a player who pitches into the 8th inning every start than barely giving you seven? With three young starters on the staff, the pen is going to get work but with a workhorse 25 year old slotting in at the #3 spot? I'm fine with that. And it's why the Angels should go full bore after the Japanese ace. 
     
     
     
     
     
     
  25. Like
    Hubs got a reaction from ettin in Tanaka: Why the Angels need to go after him with every thing they've got   
    There are a lot of unknowns in signing any player. Especially from Japan. But is he really worth what he will cost?
     
    Answer: Yes.
     
    While Tanaka's stuff isn't quite as good as fellow countrymen Yu Darvish or Dice-K, he has similar stuff. There are reservations about his ability to pitch from the stretch, and reservations about his somewhat flat, hittable fastball. 
     
    What should calm those fears is his impeccable control, which should definitely translate. His secondary pitch and tertiary pitch are legitimate major league out pitches, something that Dice-K struggled with. He doesn't have a long delivery like Dice-K, and he doesn't throw as many pitches as Darvish, allowing him to pitch deep into games. He's like Dan Haren in that respect, and should throw into the seventh or eighth or ninth inning in every start. Can't say that about Matt Garza.
     
    Also, while he throws four different pitches and experiments with a few others, his main two weapons are fastball-splitter. I am referencing an article from bleacher report on this, but he quoted a lot of sources that seem legit. 
     
    So if he is a fastball-splitter type, he has more in common with Hisanori Iwakuma and Koji Uhera than the other two Japanese pitchers. I'm sure that there are American starters to which he has a lot of similar traits, it's often the case that we compare Japanese to Japanese, and that's not right, but in this case it's valid.
     
    The conclusion drawn in the bleacher report article is that his splitter will be an absolute nightmare on lefty hitters, just as Iwakuma and Uhera have been. Mark Saxon said in an LA Times Article that Tanaka has the best splitter in the world, and while that may be an exaggeration, if it's true, he's worth every penny. 
     
    We all saw the domination of Koji Uehera this year with the Red Sox once he started throwing that splitter for strikes. He also thrived in the closer role. 
     
    Looking over the AL West, who are the best hitters?
     
    Obviously Trout, Pujols, Hamilton on the Angels come to mind. The A's have Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss to go along with Cespedes and Jed Lowrie. The Rangers have new acquisition Prince Fielder to go with Adrian Beltre and may sign Shin-Soo Choo. The Mariners signed Cano, traded for Logan Morrison, signed Cory Hart and have Kyle Seager. The Astros have Castro, Carter, etc.
     
    Most of those guys are left handed.
     
    Also, did I mention he has a plus change-up?
     
    The Angels need to sign a pitcher to take pressure off Santiago and Skaggs (as well as Richards) but a journeyman/#3/#4 starter is not the way to go. They don't have the assets to trade for David Price, who is a comparable pitcher to Tanaka if he translates well.
     
    And to those who worry about his inning count, that's the nature of Japanese baseball. They also throw a ton of pitches between starts, though they don't make as many starts as their MLB brethren. 
     
    Wouldn't you rather have a player who pitches into the 8th inning every start than barely giving you seven? With three young starters on the staff, the pen is going to get work but with a workhorse 25 year old slotting in at the #3 spot? I'm fine with that. And it's why the Angels should go full bore after the Japanese ace. 
     
     
     
     
     
     
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