DCAngelsFan

The simple fact is that this team has significant holes and cannot be hamstrung by a $50M/year contract.  Not with Moreno at the helm.  If Moreno stays, Ohtani has to leave.  If a new owner comes in and raises the payroll significantly, not just player payroll but scouting, perhaps it makes sense to pay Ohtani a half billion dollars.  Otherwise it’s not.
We all know this.  

If it means all the whiny douches are going to quit posting it's almost worth it

I knew the blown dp by Fletcher was going to lead to a crooked number.
Wonder what's worth watching on TV right now?
 
 

There is a lot of anecdotal info and observation in regard to Mike Trout's ability to handle high fastball.   There always has been.  It's been his 'kryptonite' for years.  Yet until recently, he was still putting up hall of fame numbers.  Why now, all of a sudden, is he struggling, and does it have to do with attacking him up in the zone?  How's he performing on pitches up in the zone?  How's he performing on pitches up and out of the zone?  Is he swinging at each of them more than he used to?  
I think our eyes are telling us that they are, not very good, even worse, and yes.  But do our eyes deceive us? 
First off, I would like to add that Trout has always had a bit of a complicated setup.  Leg kick.  Hands high.  Lots of timing mechanism to get things in the right place.  But once he does, that swing is a thing of beauty.  Over the years though, we seen have have these streaks where he's working on getting that front foot down on time.  Something he's been quoted on several times.   The swing hasn't changed as of yet.  A little video from 2019 to 2021 to now shows pretty much the exact same setup and trigger points. 
I've always felt like his approach was sort of the reverse of many in that he made a point to be on breaking balls and off speed while adjusting to the fastball - if you will.  I'm not sure if that has changed. 
One thing we know for sure is that he's swinging more in general (44.7% of the time in 2023 compared to his career avg of 38.8%) and that's been happening since he returned from injury last year.  Another thing we know is that he's swinging more at balls in the zone (68.2% in 2023 vs. 56.4% career) and he's still  among the top in the league in terms of offering at pitches out of the zone - right in line with his career.  But all of the above is for all pitches.  Not just fastballs.  
So let's see if a deeper dive can yield any info in that regard.
First off, lets look at how they're attacking him with fastballs.  A comparison of 2023 to 2019 is in order I think considering 2019 was Mike's most recent MVP season.  
In 2023, they're throwing fastballs at him 49.6% of the time.  In 2019, they attacked him with fastballs 42.8% of the time.  But where?

Side by side it 2023 vs. 2019.  
Up out of the zone 2023: 35.4%
Up out of the zone 2019: 33.0%
Up and in the zone 2023: 22.8%
Up and in the zone 2019: 22.8%
So pretty damn close here.  
Is he swinging at them the same amount?  
Balls up in the zone 2023: 7.8%
Balls up in the zone 2019: 5.4%
Balls up out of the zone 2023: 1.5%
Balls up out of the zone 2019: 0.9%
Alright, we might be getting somewhere here.  
And how about the results?
Balls up in the zone wOBA 2023: 
   
Balls up in the zone wOBA 2019:

Not all that compelling...
How about out of the zone?
Up and out of zone wOBA 2023: 0.0 but that's 8 results
Up and out of zone wOBA 2019: 0.0 on 11 results.  
So he really doesn't make that many outs on fastballs up in the zone in general because he doesn't really offer at that pitch all that much.  Yes he's on pace to do so a few more times this year but by seasons end we're talking like maybe 8 more outs.  Which is still not great but really on 10-12 points of batting average.  
So he's swinging more.  But why? 
Is it because he's in more two strike counts in general?  Nope.  Almost the exact same amount.  
Are they attacking him with fastballs up more with two strikes?  9.8% of the time in 2023 vs. 8.2% in 2019.  It averages out to about 30 more results from pitches up in the zone for 2023 than in 2019.   
None of the above screams that he would be tanking to the tune of an ops 175 points below his career avg.  And a few things I'd like to leave people with as they contemplate his demise.
His avg exit velo is higher than the 2019 season.  His hard hit rate is higher than his career avg.  His chase rate is at about his career avg.  His swing and miss rate is higher than his avg but down from last year.  And for all you stat nerds, his xwOBA for contact is .490.  Still elite but off his .513 career avg.  
His xba is .269 compared to his actual of .252.  His xSLG is .508 compared to his actual of .467. 
Personally, I just think he's swinging too much.  Yes, there are some signs of decline there, but there's some bad luck too.  Why swing more when your swinging strike rate has gone up?  He used to leave certain strikes alone.  You can't tell me that pitchers have become better at commanding the ball than they did before. 
Albert Pujols called and he wants his late career approach back.  Let him have it.

Nevin deserves a lot of credit pulling Estevez before it completely imploded.  Too often i seen managers stay with closer until the save is blown

I could only listen to Devenski's inning, but after Ohtani put some distance between us, and Soriano mowed them down, seemed like the Rangers were "done" - had our reliable closer coming in, time to just relax and enjoy watching him bring it home.  🙄
Still, Webb has some balls of steel on him, eh?
Really nice win - what is that, 24 come from behind wins?
Not gonna complain tonight - save the complaints for tomorrow
 

Chad Wallach is a badass btw. We thought we were screwed when O’Hoppe went down, and not to push aside anything Thaiss has done, but Wallach has basically been matching them both offensively every step of the way. 
I don’t know that he’s hit many decisive or clutch home runs, but they’ve consistently been much needed insurance HRs.

I could only listen to Devenski's inning, but after Ohtani put some distance between us, and Soriano mowed them down, seemed like the Rangers were "done" - had our reliable closer coming in, time to just relax and enjoy watching him bring it home.  🙄
Still, Webb has some balls of steel on him, eh?
Really nice win - what is that, 24 come from behind wins?
Not gonna complain tonight - save the complaints for tomorrow
 

I could only listen to Devenski's inning, but after Ohtani put some distance between us, and Soriano mowed them down, seemed like the Rangers were "done" - had our reliable closer coming in, time to just relax and enjoy watching him bring it home.  🙄
Still, Webb has some balls of steel on him, eh?
Really nice win - what is that, 24 come from behind wins?
Not gonna complain tonight - save the complaints for tomorrow
 

This reads like one of those codes they sent the French resistance the night before D Day

This would go a long way to beefing up the offense, though arguably, we need an TOR SP more (If the Cubs are serious about moving Stroman...)

It seems cheesy and cliche, but the obvious is that the better the team does, the more likely he stays.
Like Fletcher said, Ohtani likes it here and is comfortable here. I think it's not just about the teams record, but that he's having "fun" here.
And the better the record, the more fans will show up. And you hope we're in the race through the summer, to give him a taste of an environment, here, that he had in the WBC.
And who knows, maybe he's even happier as now being "The Man" on the team. Not just the best player, but as the ring leader of an emerging younger team.
The good news is I'm sure Moreno is prepared to match whatever anyone else is.
And hopefully he sees the Dodgers shuffling a bit, and the Mets and Padres shitting the bed, and says to himself "maybe the grass isn't always greener".
I still say we need to tell him we're pregnant, though 

Yeah, but they'd never expect it. That's Sun Tzu level deception.
 

The Angels are 3rd in the AL for home runs. 5th in all of baseball. They are also 3rd in the AL in OPS. So it matters little where the power comes from and there is something to say about spreading it around so there is no reliance on a couple players providing all of the big hits. 

This would go a long way to beefing up the offense, though arguably, we need an TOR SP more (If the Cubs are serious about moving Stroman...)

That's, what, 23 come from behind wins?
 
Gotta love everything about that

That's, what, 23 come from behind wins?
 
Gotta love everything about that

That's, what, 23 come from behind wins?
 
Gotta love everything about that

Trading Ohtani whilst in a winning position is the notion of a fool.

Uh oh. The Angels typically struggle against TBA.

They called up Owen White for tonight - (I hate when we face a ML call-up for the 1st time). 
But my hope is we get to him early, and force Bochy to use that tired bp - can make the next 2 games that much "easier" 

Reference in Japanese: NHK Sports
Above page, partially using Google AI Bard, I translated freely Ohtani's post-game press conference on June 12 (June 13 Japan Standard Time).
Q: You've been at the plate well recently, how was tonight?
A: My batting eye was good tonight and I got good results. 
Q: How do you interpret the current situation of the team?
A: All of us are really motivated for the 4-game series on the road, so winning the first game will give us momentum.
Q: How did you feel when you hit the game-tying and go-ahead home runs?
A: Well, I was really happy because the situations I hit were good, as the first game is important. The relievers and the defense also did a great job, so I'm glad we were able to win.
Q: You are the leading American League in the first update for the 2023 All-Star Game voting.
A: I really appreciate it and I want to keep doing my best so that I can continue to be worthy of it.
Q: You've been hitting generally well in June every year, but what are the reasons for that?
A: I think there were good or bad situations in April and May. But basically, the points that need to be improved of my batting will get better as the season goes on, including getting used to plate appearance. It's just a coincidence that I'm having a good June, but I want to keep working hard to improve my batting even more to the important time before the All-Star Game.
 

It's legit hilarious that I was disappointed the Angels didn't take Cam Collier or Dylan Lesko. I didn't throw a tantrum, but my initial reaction was, "We don't need a college shortstop, we have Fletcher and Rengifo. Plus this dude probably needs to move to 2B. And he's going to require a complete breakdown and rebuild of his swing because a leg kick that comical will never translate from small time college too the pros. This is terrible." 
And I still believe both Collier and Lesko are going to be good major leaguers, but it's less than a year later and Neto is already a good major leaguer, and from what I can see, there's no way in heck I'd move him off SS. Kind of just highlights how far off scouting reports can be, and how far off our own interpretations of what the team needs and doesn't need and what works and doesn't work, can be. 
Good work to Perry, the scouting director, cross checkers and scouts. From where I'm sitting, it looks to me like the Angels got the steal of the draft. Guys like Holliday, Druw Jones, Termarr.... They were expected to be very good and their draft position and subsequent bonuses reflect that. 

What's made this team more interesting to watch this year *has* been the young guys you didn't expect; Thaiss, Neto, Moniak, O'Hoppe (dammit), (and Soriano, too), and the guys you didn't expect like Barria (knock wood.)
The bp is starting to look pretty good, too  - which plays into the one thing that gives me the most hope for these guys - the comeback wins.  
No predictions - they're barely above .500 - but there are a lot of reasons to watch this team that aren't named Ohtani or Trout.
 
 

Very rarely do I ever look back on anything I've written and think it was a particularly solid take, but this last off-season I put a lot of thought into the prospects, more so than I typically do.  And this brought me to a revelation.  Rather than looking at the young kids that could someday impact the ball club, it was the guys that had already graduated our top prospect lists but still had the talent and opportunity to impact the ball club that I was most excited about.  The "post-hype prospect."  It's not a sexy take, but I wanted to make sure and spill some digital ink on these guys before we gushed over the guys in A Ball. 
For the Top Prospect intro, I listed examples from past post-hype prospects, such as Sandoval, Suarez, Barria, Walsh and Rengifo.  And then listed the guys that could impact the team in 2023.  In order, Matt Thaiss, Chris Rodriguez, Mickey Moniak, Jo Adell, Griffin Canning and Jose Soriano. 
And I don't think enough can be said about these guys.  Every single one of them outside of Rodriguez has made a positive impact on the Angels in 2023.  Thaiss has turned into a legitimate starting catcher in the major leagues with a potent bat.  Moniak has been a spark plug for the offense and no one has complained about him vulturing starts from Ward and Renfroe.  He's a VERY good fourth outfielder.  Adell hasn't gotten much opportunity, but he's leading the PCL in HR's and just hit one tonight in Angel Stadium that's the hardest and furthest of the season.  Lately, Canning looks every bit the #3-4 starter we were hoping for and it's only been a week but Soriano looks incredible in a late inning role.  High 90's with crazy movement. 
I think it's just a reminder that some of the best prospects in the Angels system, aren't even "prospects".  And that's something that MLB, Baseball America, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus don't account for when ranking the best minor league systems.  The Angels system has continually churned out quality major leaguers.