stanick88

I don't like how everything's being leaked and played through the media.  It probably would've been better if we hadn't heard anything at all the past few months and were just told there was going to be a 50 game season.
 
That said, can't wait for opening day 2.0.

I'll say this, I would rather watch 50 games of Baseball than have no ball at all. 
While it would be pretty lame, I'm jonesing for MLB action like no other. 

You won't be "attending" any games either....

Baseball heals through playing the game.  

when I was a lad, the first thing I would do in the morning during baseball season was run out to the driveway and grab the paper if my dad hadn't already done so. I would turn right to the box scores and check everyone's stats for the day.  So this is oddly satisfying even though it's fake.  
I actually got a touch annoyed for about 2 seconds when I saw that the Angels lost a fake game today.  HA!

Max Stassi will bat .320

Trout's extension and Rendon's signing don't happen without Moreno's "meddling."
It goes both ways.

Taylor Ward for DeGrom/Scherzer. Mets and Nats split Ward for 81 games each. 

We're absolutely a top 5 offense, period. We're gonna hit fuckin DINGERS. Oh, the pitching gave up 7 runs? Oh damn that sucks guess the game's over FUCKIN 10 RUNS SUCK MY DICK.

Pederson is a left handed power hitter that gave the Dodgers a .383 OBP and .983 OPS wRISP last season. This is a significant acquisition indeed. 

you are overestimating the quality of other starting staff's across the league because the Angels didn't address their pitching issues to your liking.  I get it, I am not a huge fan either and don't think the staff will be good but they're not terrible.  Even comparatively.  

1. Dodgers
2. Astros
3. Red Sox
4. Yankees 
 
a few years ago, Houston wouldn't have been in the top 20

My rebuttal to this take is that I would argue that our offense and defense are top 5 in both leagues and while we may not have a true #1 outside of Ohtani who will pitch once a week, our 2-5 is solid enough to win 90 games, perhaps more. 
Also, I believe we'll eventually add an arm that we can pair up with Ohtani that would give us an electric 1-2 punch from the top of the rotation. 
I really believe that Teheran, Bundy, Canning, Heaney and Sandoval can provide us a really solid rotation that can keep us in games, unlike last season. With our offense, keeping us in games in monumental as it allows our lineup to give us a chance to win and comeback in games we get behind early in.....and yes I'm going to say it, just like 2002 when our rotation didn't have a true #1, and was really just a rotation of #3's. 

One more thing, after they completed the sweep of the Dodgers in July, the 2019 Angels were 54-49. They finished the season 72-90, as we all know. That means they finished the final two months plus at 18-41. That’s why Ausmus lost his job. He lost the clubhouse. Bullpen management was terrible all season.
I think they’d have finished closer to .500 as they had the previous three seasons with Scioscia as manager. 18-41 is one of the worst 59 game stretches this team has had since the 90’s. It might be the worst. 
So from 80 or 83 wins, the jump to 95 with a better rotation, and an MVP candidate at 3rd base isn’t that big of a leap.

Rearranging the numbers in 2002 gets you 2020. It's meant to be. 

For projections in general, you just take historical data and apply various trends/adjustments. The different projection systems use different historical data and/or different trends/adjustments. But the overall process is similar.
So your thought process is pretty close. And as you mentioned, there are complications when data is limited.

I'll answer in spite of you asking for a response from smart people but here is my guess.  
projection systems don't actually project.  they compile what's been done in the past and create a fancy average.  So it doesn't do well with small samples and it doesn't like players who've never been in a major league game.  
They also like very specific things that they are programmed to like.  
Trying to explain the examples you gave.  
Fletcher - entering age 26 with a pace of 3+ WAR in each of his first two seasons.  It sees this last year as an outlier due to a walk rate of 8.4% which he's never been close to sans his time in A ball in 2015.  It's not buying it even though we know it's legit.  Or likely legit.  
Simmons is pretty simple.  None of his peripherals has changed much except that BABIP in 2019 which was .277.  Well below his career norm.  And fewer at bats.  If he were 28, he'd be projected for 5 WAR.  But because he's now on the wrong side of 30, it's dampened a bit.  
Stassi - that's all defense and an ok bat in the upper minors.  
A few others:
Goodwin - not sure why they aren't buying him more.  Probably because of a greater emphasis on the last couple years in the minors and an otherwise limited sample.  
Heaney - I sorta see the 2.8 WAR but that's based on health.  
Robles - Again, you can see why they are doing what they do but if you watch baseball, you can probably adjust up or down pretty easily.  
They're gonna be wrong about the individual players quite a bit but the sum of all players is likely reasonable because most teams have a mix of guys.  
 
 

The problem with trading adell is that hes our insurance for the MOTO in case baldoquin doesnt work out.

Suarez, Jones, Thaiss, Ward, Yan, Rengifo, Hermosillo, Markel, and Bemboom for Clevinger.

I agree, but I'd also like to add that he and his staff really made some questionable draft moves the past two years. Jordyn Adams could prove me wrong, but there was a ton of pitchers available that were near ready in the 2018 draft and he went after Adams and Jackson with his first two picks.
This past draft really confused me with the Wilson pick and it gets worse when he had to trade the pick away just to fix a mistake of his in Cozart. 
But what really bums me out is that there were arms available that were highly rated that he didn't draft ahead of Wilson. Guys like Rutledge, Priester, Kirby and Thompson would have been a much better selection. I even liked Greg Jones, Cobin Carroll, Michael Toglia and Kody Hoese much better than Wilson. 
If Eppler is able to make a trade for a good controllable arm or sign a few guys like Wood/Walker, I think he gets a B- overall. If he's unable to or land a decent C via FA or a trade, I think he's sitting at a C- overall. 
When you don't make the playoffs and you've failed to build a good starting pitching staff I can't see giving him a better grade to date. 

Adell, Marsh, and Sandoval. Maybe Rengifo as a throw in.
I don't want to trade either of Adell or Marsh, but I also don't see the Angels making a competitive offer centered around just Marsh. 
This is why I don't think he's a realistic trade target. I would kill to have him in the rotation but it's just going to cost too much.

I second this 

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