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Angelsjunky

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  1. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from YouthofToday in AL MVP race update   
    MVP is a clown award, bro.
  2. Like
    Angelsjunky reacted to YouthofToday in Bad Farm System Myth   
    What is your definition of "high-end talent"? Te possibility of accruing some MLB service time?
    Cron is a AAAA guy without a position. Stamets has 0 power and hasn't even produced a wRC+ > 95 in a season yet. He hasn't been young for his level really yet. Morin is just a RP that every organization has plenty of. Sappington is about t turn 23, has little control and barely hit AA ball yet. Alvarez has terrible control.
    Maybe 2 out of the bunch you listed are top 150 prospects. Maybe. This is the best we have? Would these "prospects" even rank in the Rays, Cardinals or Ramgers top 15 prospects?
  3. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from HaloCory22 in Yet another Mike Trout stat p0rn thread   
    Thanks, Cory, now he's going to end up with this line:
     
    .329/.439/.559 .999 OPS 199 H, 9 3B, 39 2B, 29 HR, 33 SB, 99 RBI, 109 BB, 119 R
     
    And it will somehow be considered less amazing.
     
    Seriously though, I was thinking about just what you wrote. If you look at those milestones, the hardest might be 10 3B. 30 HR will also be hard - 4 HR in 10 games (after today) is hard but do-able, especially given that Trout tends to hit HR in bunches and he's on a roll. But triples are so rare and he could go a month or more without one.
  4. Like
    Angelsjunky reacted to Chimi in Trading Kendrick   
    He's one of the few trading pieces we have that will actually bring us back something decent.  I don't necessarily want to see him go, but he's probably the one to improve this team the most through a trade.
  5. Like
    Angelsjunky reacted to mulwin444 in Trout is slumping   
    I was thinking the other way...Calhoun, to me, is an ideal 2 hitter - a mix power. patience and speed.  If Sciocsia insists on batting Pujols 3rd again next season, I can even envision a scenario where Calhoun would lead-off:
     
    1  Calhoun
    2. Trout
    3.  Pujols 
  6. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from YouthofToday in 100 Walks   
    A .540 OBP is much more valuable and rare than a .617 SLG - in a vacuum, at least.
     
    Because I'm a big stat nerd, among qualifying seasons in major league history (going back to 1871), there have been:
     
    221 seasons of a .617+ SLG
    5 seasons of a .540+ OBP
     
    If you're curious, those seasons are:
    1. Barry Bonds 2004: .609
    2. Barry Bonds 2002: .582
    3. Ted Williams 1941: .553
    4. John McGraw 1899: .547
    5. Babe Ruth 1923: .545
     
    Ruth's 1923 is the highest single season fWAR on record at 15.0 (!).
     
    Anyhow, to find a comparable OBP to .617 - that is with ~220 players who have ever accomplished the feat - you'd have to go all the way down to .449 (and a .362 BA).
     
    To put that in other words, a .617 SLG is comparable in terms of rarity to .449 OBP and a .362 BA. Not bad. A .540 OBP is comparable to a ~.430 BA and a ~.790 SLG. Ridonkulous.
  7. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from Vladdylonglegs in The Best GM In MLB   
    The Giants won two out of the last three World Series' - how is that a "fluke"?
     
    Stop with the SoCal butthurt.
  8. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from markb in Surging With Pujols Out   
    It never hurts to say it again: correlation does not equal causation.
  9. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from Vegas Halo Fan in The Best GM In MLB   
    The Giants won two out of the last three World Series' - how is that a "fluke"?
     
    Stop with the SoCal butthurt.
  10. Like
    Angelsjunky reacted to Docwaukee in CJ Wilson on Calhoun   
    Calhoun is my favorite human baseball player. 
  11. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from Vegas Halo Fan in Wladimir Balentein & The Japanese HR Record   
    In non-MLB news, Wladimir Balentien just hit HR #55, tying Sadoharo Oh for the record. He's going to break it, obviously.
     
    Balentien was a Mariners prospect five+ years ago. He never quite made it and looked like a quad-A hitter ala Dallas McPherson. It will be interesting to see if he decides to come to the States and have a major league career, or if he prefers all the Japanese 'tang he's getting.
  12. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from Chuck in Wladimir Balentein & The Japanese HR Record   
    In non-MLB news, Wladimir Balentien just hit HR #55, tying Sadoharo Oh for the record. He's going to break it, obviously.
     
    Balentien was a Mariners prospect five+ years ago. He never quite made it and looked like a quad-A hitter ala Dallas McPherson. It will be interesting to see if he decides to come to the States and have a major league career, or if he prefers all the Japanese 'tang he's getting.
  13. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from T.G. in Rasmus is clearly not an answer in the pen.   
    Two things:
    1. Rasmus was never meant to be "the answer" but a usable part.
    2. 8 innings does not determine whether he's a usable part or not.
  14. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from Second Base in Weekly Trout WAR update (9/9)   
    I agree, Jason - but there's enough of a chance (say, 10%?) that its worth mentioning.
     
    With 20 games left, Trout's at .338. 20 games ago he was at .330, so that's an 8-point gain.
     
    The Tigers have 19 games left and Cabrera's at .353. 19 games ago he was at .360, so that's a 7-point loss.
     
    .338 + .008 = .346
     
    .353 - .007 = .346
     
    Unlikely - probably very unlikely - but possible.
  15. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from Corona in Considerations for trading Trumbo   
    Trumbo is finishing up his third full season, all of which are very similar. Check out his fWAR: 2.1, 2.2, 1.9. Its probably safe to say that his 1.9 fWAR this year will increase a bit to be right there with 2011 and '12.
     
    Chances are he's not getting much better - he's just been too consistent. His walk rate has improved slightly each year, but at the expense of striking out more. His BABIP is down this year at .272 from .316 last year, but it was .274 in 2011 so it could be that this year is more indicative of his true talent level than last.
     
    If we want to be a bit optimistic we can hope that his modest defensive gains will remain and his BABIP will stabilize around .300. That means next year he could hit around .260/.320/.500 with 35 HR, which with his averagish defense would be good for about 3 fWAR, I think. I think that's the best we can reasonably hope for, although it is certainly possible that he has a career year at some point and hits .280 with 40 HR and a 4-5 fWAR. I wouldn't expect that to happen more than once, though. .260/.800 seems more indicative of an optimized true talent level.
     
    Calhoun, on the other hand, seems capable of hitting about .280/.350/.450 with 15-20 HR as a major leaguer - or that would be my guess. If his defense is average he should be a 3-4 fWAR player, and thus better than Trumbo.
     
    Given that Peter Bourjos likely won't be traded because of declined trade value, it seems probably that one of Trumbo and Calhoun get traded, possibly along with Howie Kendrick. I'd much rather see Trumbo go as I think he has a bit more trade value - those 90+ HR over the last three years are enticing - but at the same time I think Calhoun will be a bit better.
  16. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from The Ghost of Bob Starr in Peter Bourjos is done for the season (Wrist Surgery)   
    Me agree.
     
    Short fragment sentences.
     
    The bomb are.
  17. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from Second Base in Considerations for trading Trumbo   
    That's what my choice would be. That said, I don't necessarily see Bourjos on the Angels long-term. If Cron, Grichuk or even Borenstein hit well then Bourjos can be traded after next year and Calhoun inserted in LF, with Trout back in CF.
  18. Like
    Angelsjunky reacted to Second Base in Considerations for trading Trumbo   
    I think AJ was the first to say exactly what I was looking for in this thread.  Is Trumbo more valuable than Calhoun?  Because for measuring purposes, Kole Calhoun would effectively be considered his replacement given that he plays 1B and the corner OF.  You also have to consider the circumstances.  How valuable are HR's to this team vs. OBP?  
     
    If every player had a high OBP but only moderate power, then Calhoun would hold practically no value.  Conversely, if every player on the team was a power hitter with a low OBP then Trumbo would hold little value.  So how do these guys measure up with comparison to their team?  Well in terms of power, the Angels have Hamilton, Pujols and Trout.  In terms of OBP the Angels have Trout and Iannetta.
     
    BA - Calhoun would likely hit 20-30 points higher in any given season.
    OBP - Calhoun's OBP would be 50 points higher on average. 
    HR's - Trumbo should hit 20 more HR's yearly.
    SB - Calhoun should take 5-10 extra bases a year. 
    Defense - Despite the results lately, Calhoun is a better defender in the OF than Trumbo while Trumbo's better at 1B. 
     
    Finally, there are two more aspects to consider.  1-If Trumbo's the better defender at 1B, do we have a replacement?  Yes, Pujols or Calhoun.  2- Monetary consideration.  Calhoun will be playing for the league minimum for another two years.  Over the next two years, you can expect Trumbo to earn at least 7 million.  
     
    In conclusion, I think Calhoun is a slightly more valuable player given the climate of the Angels and his skill set. Not only does he contribute in more aspects, the idea that Trumbo's DH and backup corner OF limits his value on a team that has Pujols and Hamilton, both of whom will need considerable time at DH. 
  19. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from IEAngelsfan in Considerations for trading Trumbo   
    Trumbo is finishing up his third full season, all of which are very similar. Check out his fWAR: 2.1, 2.2, 1.9. Its probably safe to say that his 1.9 fWAR this year will increase a bit to be right there with 2011 and '12.
     
    Chances are he's not getting much better - he's just been too consistent. His walk rate has improved slightly each year, but at the expense of striking out more. His BABIP is down this year at .272 from .316 last year, but it was .274 in 2011 so it could be that this year is more indicative of his true talent level than last.
     
    If we want to be a bit optimistic we can hope that his modest defensive gains will remain and his BABIP will stabilize around .300. That means next year he could hit around .260/.320/.500 with 35 HR, which with his averagish defense would be good for about 3 fWAR, I think. I think that's the best we can reasonably hope for, although it is certainly possible that he has a career year at some point and hits .280 with 40 HR and a 4-5 fWAR. I wouldn't expect that to happen more than once, though. .260/.800 seems more indicative of an optimized true talent level.
     
    Calhoun, on the other hand, seems capable of hitting about .280/.350/.450 with 15-20 HR as a major leaguer - or that would be my guess. If his defense is average he should be a 3-4 fWAR player, and thus better than Trumbo.
     
    Given that Peter Bourjos likely won't be traded because of declined trade value, it seems probably that one of Trumbo and Calhoun get traded, possibly along with Howie Kendrick. I'd much rather see Trumbo go as I think he has a bit more trade value - those 90+ HR over the last three years are enticing - but at the same time I think Calhoun will be a bit better.
  20. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from Second Base in Considerations for trading Trumbo   
    Trumbo is finishing up his third full season, all of which are very similar. Check out his fWAR: 2.1, 2.2, 1.9. Its probably safe to say that his 1.9 fWAR this year will increase a bit to be right there with 2011 and '12.
     
    Chances are he's not getting much better - he's just been too consistent. His walk rate has improved slightly each year, but at the expense of striking out more. His BABIP is down this year at .272 from .316 last year, but it was .274 in 2011 so it could be that this year is more indicative of his true talent level than last.
     
    If we want to be a bit optimistic we can hope that his modest defensive gains will remain and his BABIP will stabilize around .300. That means next year he could hit around .260/.320/.500 with 35 HR, which with his averagish defense would be good for about 3 fWAR, I think. I think that's the best we can reasonably hope for, although it is certainly possible that he has a career year at some point and hits .280 with 40 HR and a 4-5 fWAR. I wouldn't expect that to happen more than once, though. .260/.800 seems more indicative of an optimized true talent level.
     
    Calhoun, on the other hand, seems capable of hitting about .280/.350/.450 with 15-20 HR as a major leaguer - or that would be my guess. If his defense is average he should be a 3-4 fWAR player, and thus better than Trumbo.
     
    Given that Peter Bourjos likely won't be traded because of declined trade value, it seems probably that one of Trumbo and Calhoun get traded, possibly along with Howie Kendrick. I'd much rather see Trumbo go as I think he has a bit more trade value - those 90+ HR over the last three years are enticing - but at the same time I think Calhoun will be a bit better.
  21. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from Vegas Halo Fan in Considerations for trading Trumbo   
    Trumbo is finishing up his third full season, all of which are very similar. Check out his fWAR: 2.1, 2.2, 1.9. Its probably safe to say that his 1.9 fWAR this year will increase a bit to be right there with 2011 and '12.
     
    Chances are he's not getting much better - he's just been too consistent. His walk rate has improved slightly each year, but at the expense of striking out more. His BABIP is down this year at .272 from .316 last year, but it was .274 in 2011 so it could be that this year is more indicative of his true talent level than last.
     
    If we want to be a bit optimistic we can hope that his modest defensive gains will remain and his BABIP will stabilize around .300. That means next year he could hit around .260/.320/.500 with 35 HR, which with his averagish defense would be good for about 3 fWAR, I think. I think that's the best we can reasonably hope for, although it is certainly possible that he has a career year at some point and hits .280 with 40 HR and a 4-5 fWAR. I wouldn't expect that to happen more than once, though. .260/.800 seems more indicative of an optimized true talent level.
     
    Calhoun, on the other hand, seems capable of hitting about .280/.350/.450 with 15-20 HR as a major leaguer - or that would be my guess. If his defense is average he should be a 3-4 fWAR player, and thus better than Trumbo.
     
    Given that Peter Bourjos likely won't be traded because of declined trade value, it seems probably that one of Trumbo and Calhoun get traded, possibly along with Howie Kendrick. I'd much rather see Trumbo go as I think he has a bit more trade value - those 90+ HR over the last three years are enticing - but at the same time I think Calhoun will be a bit better.
  22. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from ScottT in Who is more likely to rebound in 2014?   
    Trumbo isn't far from his career averages so I don't know why improvement would be considered a "rebound."
  23. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from Vegas Halo Fan in Peter Bourjos is done for the season (Wrist Surgery)   
    Me agree.
     
    Short fragment sentences.
     
    The bomb are.
  24. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from stormngt in Is it a bad thing that the Angels keep winning?   
    Well said, storm. I mean, I love the idea of getting a #5 draft pick, but I'd rather see the team play to its potential which is a much stronger building block for next year. By winning games in September, the team is proving to itself that it can win.
     
    The problem with the opposing viewpoint is that it ignores the aspect of morale and human psychology. I want to see the guys enjoy playing baseball and its much more fun winning than losing. I'd bed money that not a single player is saying "Man, we need to stop winning because we're going to miss out on a top 10 draft pick." They're more likely saying "THIS is how winning feels like, I remember now, and I love it - I want to do more!"
  25. Like
    Angelsjunky got a reaction from Vladdylonglegs in Who is more likely to rebound in 2014?   
    Trumbo isn't far from his career averages so I don't know why improvement would be considered a "rebound."
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