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Considerations for trading Trumbo


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I personally am a big fan of Trumbo and would hate to see him leave the Angels.  But, of course, if the offer's too good to be true, I can go along with a Trumbo trade.  So, for me, it's about truely acessing Trumbo's value.  From a sheer stats perspective, Trumbo is a productive player despite low OBP and OPS.  But, his power numbers, 32 HR's 89 RBI's, are too big to ignore, considering that 32 HR's is top 5 in all of baseball and 89 RBI's ranks him 15th.  And he leads the Angels in both categories.  And, if you put Trumbo on the roster of a good number of teams, he would lead that team in HRs and RBIs.  So, at the very minimum, I don't trade Trumbo unless we're getting a 2/3 type starter or an organization's top pitching prospects in returm. 

 

If you can't get that that kind of deal, you keep Trumbo and just have to be content with a guy that you pretty much know will hit 30+ HRs and 90-100 RBIs.  I mean, that kind of production just doesn't grow on trees. 

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He has 31 HR, but that doesn't take away from your point.

 

The 30+ HR thing looks great in the box score, but the .750 OPS does not. Even though players who hit 30+ homeruns don't grow on trees, players who put up a .750 OPS do. I think his overall production would be pretty easy to replace when you take homeruns out of the equation. If you find a player who hits .270/.330/.450 with 20 HR instead of 30, you are likely getting the exact same production. The HR might add a few more RBI's to Trumbo's stats, but that isn't a great way to judge a player.

 

I like Trumbo as well, and I would rather he NOT be traded, but if he gets you a middle of the rotation starter or a good pitching prospect you definitely have to consider it.

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In this situation you have to look at runs created. Trumbo is at a 98 right now, which isn't good at all. The home runs may look good on the stat sheet, but in the end it means nothing when he does NOTHING else. There are players who hit 15-20 HRs and have higher runs created than Trumbo, and that's ALL that matters when were talking about an offensive player.

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I personally am a big fan of Trumbo and would hate to see him leave the Angels. But, of course, if the offer's too good to be true, I can go along with a Trumbo trade. So, for me, it's about truely acessing Trumbo's value. From a sheer stats perspective, Trumbo is a productive player despite low OBP and OPS. But, his power numbers, 32 HR's 89 RBI's, are too big to ignore, considering that 32 HR's is top 5 in all of baseball and 89 RBI's ranks him 15th. And he leads the Angels in both categories. And, if you put Trumbo on the roster of a good number of teams, he would lead that team in HRs and RBIs. So, at the very minimum, I don't trade Trumbo unless we're getting a 2/3 type starter or an organization's top pitching prospects in returm.

If you can't get that that kind of deal, you keep Trumbo and just have to be content with a guy that you pretty much know will hit 30+ HRs and 90-100 RBIs. I mean, that kind of production just doesn't grow on trees.

Wow, another use of RBI as an important stat to indicate talent. This concept is harder to kill than folks who think the Earth is less than 50,000 years old, flat or that the Sun revolves around the Earth.

Impressive...

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Well, if you want to look at production of the position, figure Trunnions under club control makes the bare minimum.

I personally don't care what a player makes as long as the position produces. Like the Seahawks with Flynn's salary and Wilson and what he did.

He won't be a free agent until 2017, but next year he's arb. eligible, so he won't be making "bare minimum". He'll probably be making at least 3-4 million.  

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Well, if you want to look at production of the position, figure Trunnions under club control makes the bare minimum.

I personally don't care what a player makes as long as the position produces. Like the Seahawks with Flynn's salary and Wilson and what he did.

That won't work next year when he will be arbitration eligible and start getting costly.

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You have to throw out OBP and OPS when it comes to Trumbo.  His only job is to hit bombs and drive in runs.  The only thing that counts when it comes to Trumbo is 'run production', and for a guy who has a sub.300 OBP, he's been well above average at driving in and scoring runs.

 

Only 100 players have at least 500 plate appearances this year and he ranks near the bottom at 95th in OBP, and yet he's tied for 36th in runs scored and 14th in RBI.  That's more runs scored than over 60 guys that have a higher OBP in at least 500 plate appearances.  He's even scored more runs than players that have an OBP 100 points higher than him.

 

This is not about evaluating talent (YoT), it's about evaluating RUN PRODUCTION, and with the exception of July, he's been pretty consistent all year at producing runs.  If he's to be traded, it shouldn't be for anything less than a #1 or #2 major league ready starter.

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So is it now the opinion of these stat guys that RBI's are pretty much worthless now?

most stat guys feel that the absolute number of RBI is not a very telling stat regarding an individual player.

 

Trumbo leads the team in RBI, but he also leads the team in RBI opportunities. 

 

There is probably some information that has evaluated the theory of swinging more often with runners in scoring position in order to increase run production although I am not aware of such. 

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You have to throw out OBP and OPS when it comes to Trumbo.  His only job is to hit bombs and drive in runs.  The only thing that counts when it comes to Trumbo is 'run production', and for a guy who has a sub.300 OBP, he's been well above average at driving in and scoring runs.

 

Only 100 players have at least 500 plate appearances this year and he ranks near the bottom at 95th in OBP, and yet he's tied for 36th in runs scored and 14th in RBI.  That's more runs scored than over 60 guys that have a higher OBP in at least 500 plate appearances.  He's even scored more runs than players that have an OBP 100 points higher than him.

 

This is not about evaluating talent (YoT), it's about evaluating RUN PRODUCTION, and with the exception of July, he's been pretty consistent all year at producing runs.  If he's to be traded, it shouldn't be for anything less than a #1 or #2 major league ready starter.

he's had the largest number of opportunities on the team to 'produce runs'.  He'd have even more RBI and runs if he were better at hitting. 

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You have to throw out OBP and OPS when it comes to Trumbo.  His only job is to hit bombs and drive in runs.  The only thing that counts when it comes to Trumbo is 'run production', and for a guy who has a sub.300 OBP, he's been well above average at driving in and scoring runs.

 

Only 100 players have at least 500 plate appearances this year and he ranks near the bottom at 95th in OBP, and yet he's tied for 36th in runs scored and 14th in RBI.  That's more runs scored than over 60 guys that have a higher OBP in at least 500 plate appearances.  He's even scored more runs than players that have an OBP 100 points higher than him.

 

This is not about evaluating talent (YoT), it's about evaluating RUN PRODUCTION, and with the exception of July, he's been pretty consistent all year at producing runs.  If he's to be traded, it shouldn't be for anything less than a #1 or #2 major league ready starter.

 

You can't just "throw out" two of the most important stats for evaluating hitters because they don't put Trumbo in a positive light. He's among the worst in baseball in OBP, and he is below average in OPS. And the reason he has driven in 89 runs is because of how many opportunities he has had. He is hitting .222 with RISP with a .691 OPS. It's not like he's stepping up in run producing situations, in fact, he's doing worse. He just gets so many chances that he is able to rack up a decent amount of RBI's. As for Runs scored, that doesn't really have anything to do with Trumbo. I mean he only has 5 SB so it's not like he's a great base runner or anything. The reason he has scored more runs than other guys with higher OBP is because the hitters behind him have been driving him in. So, a guy with a higher OBP replacing Trumbo would likely score more runs.

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Yea I'm torn on Trumbo. On one hand I get frustrated the last two years watching him get hot and hit the ball to all fields, then it seems he throws that strategy away and goes into month long slumps. At this point he very well might be what he is but it would be tough trading him and then seeing it all click for him. I also hate the idea of trading his power. I don't want to see him go for anything less than a front line project able starter, someone that can become a CJ type player. I might consider moving him for a young guy that can become the next Papelbon (douchiness not included). But would I trade him for someone that projects to be a number four starter, no I wouldn't. He can fill holes on this team and if given a choice I would rather trade Peter.

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Trumbo is finishing up his third full season, all of which are very similar. Check out his fWAR: 2.1, 2.2, 1.9. Its probably safe to say that his 1.9 fWAR this year will increase a bit to be right there with 2011 and '12.

 

Chances are he's not getting much better - he's just been too consistent. His walk rate has improved slightly each year, but at the expense of striking out more. His BABIP is down this year at .272 from .316 last year, but it was .274 in 2011 so it could be that this year is more indicative of his true talent level than last.

 

If we want to be a bit optimistic we can hope that his modest defensive gains will remain and his BABIP will stabilize around .300. That means next year he could hit around .260/.320/.500 with 35 HR, which with his averagish defense would be good for about 3 fWAR, I think. I think that's the best we can reasonably hope for, although it is certainly possible that he has a career year at some point and hits .280 with 40 HR and a 4-5 fWAR. I wouldn't expect that to happen more than once, though. .260/.800 seems more indicative of an optimized true talent level.

 

Calhoun, on the other hand, seems capable of hitting about .280/.350/.450 with 15-20 HR as a major leaguer - or that would be my guess. If his defense is average he should be a 3-4 fWAR player, and thus better than Trumbo.

 

Given that Peter Bourjos likely won't be traded because of declined trade value, it seems probably that one of Trumbo and Calhoun get traded, possibly along with Howie Kendrick. I'd much rather see Trumbo go as I think he has a bit more trade value - those 90+ HR over the last three years are enticing - but at the same time I think Calhoun will be a bit better.

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Trumbo is a tough one for me. If a trade takes place, the return needs to be a solid ML starter. Trading him for a Hanson type pitcher would be stupid. I would like to keep Vargas and you have a solid 4 for the rotation. Then sign one more FA pitcher and trade Howie for prospects. Going this route will optimize the return for Kendrick and they can keep Trumbo for depth and/or possible trade bait at the deadline if needed. 

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So, at the very minimum, I don't trade Trumbo unless we're getting a 2/3 type starter or an organization's top pitching prospects in returm. 

 

In other words, you don't trade Mark Trumbo. You won't get a top half of the rotation pitcher for an all-or-nothing hitter.

Edited by Vegas Halo Fan
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I think AJ was the first to say exactly what I was looking for in this thread.  Is Trumbo more valuable than Calhoun?  Because for measuring purposes, Kole Calhoun would effectively be considered his replacement given that he plays 1B and the corner OF.  You also have to consider the circumstances.  How valuable are HR's to this team vs. OBP?  

 

If every player had a high OBP but only moderate power, then Calhoun would hold practically no value.  Conversely, if every player on the team was a power hitter with a low OBP then Trumbo would hold little value.  So how do these guys measure up with comparison to their team?  Well in terms of power, the Angels have Hamilton, Pujols and Trout.  In terms of OBP the Angels have Trout and Iannetta.

 

BA - Calhoun would likely hit 20-30 points higher in any given season.

OBP - Calhoun's OBP would be 50 points higher on average. 

HR's - Trumbo should hit 20 more HR's yearly.

SB - Calhoun should take 5-10 extra bases a year. 

Defense - Despite the results lately, Calhoun is a better defender in the OF than Trumbo while Trumbo's better at 1B. 

 

Finally, there are two more aspects to consider.  1-If Trumbo's the better defender at 1B, do we have a replacement?  Yes, Pujols or Calhoun.  2- Monetary consideration.  Calhoun will be playing for the league minimum for another two years.  Over the next two years, you can expect Trumbo to earn at least 7 million.  

 

In conclusion, I think Calhoun is a slightly more valuable player given the climate of the Angels and his skill set. Not only does he contribute in more aspects, the idea that Trumbo's DH and backup corner OF limits his value on a team that has Pujols and Hamilton, both of whom will need considerable time at DH. 

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Ya, I agree with a lot of that.

 

Also, even with the 2nd half struggles and his other ever present flaws, I feel like Trumbo's value might be artificially inflated enough by his shiny power numbers that the sum of Calhoun playing regularly in place of Trumbo + the contributions of the Trumbo return are likely to be greater than the other potential scenarios.

Edited by jshep
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"the sum of Calhoun playing regularly in place of Trumbo + the contributions of the Trumbo return are likely to be greater than the other potential scenarios."

 

Couldn't have stated better.  

 

Hypothetical situation, the Angels trade Trumbo for a random #3/4 SP.  I'll take 180 innings of 3.75 ERA plus Kole Calhoun at .270/.340 30 DB 15 HR 15 SB over Trumbo's .260/.310 35 HR's. 

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