Weekly Trout WAR update (9/9)

[Angelsjunky]

Fangraphs

Through 138 games played he's now at 9.8 - just 0.2 shy of last year's total. So if he has a really big game tonight he'll be on exactly the same pace. Also, his defensive value continues to rise - his Fld is now at +5.7.

 

He's fully 2.5 fWAR ahead of Miguel Cabrera, who has dropped a bit to 7.3 due to poor defense (-16.6 Fld) and stalled hitting. McCutchen's third at 7.2, with Chris Davis at 6.5 and Josh Donaldson at 6.4.

 

Its also worth noting that Trout's .338 BA is only 15 points behind Cabrera at .353. So if the trend continues, Trout has a chance of catching him for the batting title - although its probably pretty unlikely at this point.

 

Baseball Reference

Trout's 8.6 rWAR continues to lead baseball, ahead of Cabrera's 6.9 in the AL and McCutchen's 7.4 in the NL. His dWAR is still -0.7, though.

 

[YouthofToday]

Trout is a demigod and is the half brother of Perseus. NY Times should be investigating why Zeus emerged from a 2,000+ year nap.

[NrM]

and yet he'll probably finish 3rd or 4th in mvp voting

Edited September 9, 2013 by Poozy

[fan_since79]

Those numbers are good for a $50,000 raise.

[jsnpritchett]

 

 

Its also worth noting that Trout's .338 BA is only 15 points behind Cabrera at .353. So if the trend continues, Trout has a chance of catching him for the batting title - although its probably pretty unlikely at this point.

 

 

 

I would actually saying it's highly unlikely he'll catch him in BA.  There's just not enough time.  He has a better shot of catching Cabrera in OBP, due to his crazy-high walk rate over the last few weeks.

[Troll Daddy]

Chicks dig the Walk

[Angelsjunky]

I agree, Jason - but there's enough of a chance (say, 10%?) that its worth mentioning.

 

With 20 games left, Trout's at .338. 20 games ago he was at .330, so that's an 8-point gain.

 

The Tigers have 19 games left and Cabrera's at .353. 19 games ago he was at .360, so that's a 7-point loss.

 

.338 + .008 = .346

 

.353 - .007 = .346

 

Unlikely - probably very unlikely - but possible.

[eaterfan]

I agree, Jason - but there's enough of a chance (say, 10%?) that its worth mentioning.

 

With 20 games left, Trout's at .338. 20 games ago he was at .330, so that's an 8-point gain.

 

The Tigers have 19 games left and Cabrera's at .353. 19 games ago he was at .360, so that's a 7-point loss.

 

.338 + .008 = .346

 

.353 - .007 = .346

 

Unlikely - probably very unlikely - but possible.

 

Remember that as the season progresses the number of ABs does to so it takes even better hitting for Trout to move up another .008 than over the last 20 games. It will also take worse hitting from Cabrera to move down the same amount.

 

I think Trout is hitting something like .550 in September so it will be hard to improve much on that.

Edited September 9, 2013 by eaterfan

[Angelsjunky]

I know, eaterfan, which is why I say "very unlikely."

 

It also means that its unlikely that he hits below .330. As a numbers geek, I've always enjoyed the ".330+" BA - it seems to signify a great hitter, and a season worthy of a batting title (with .280 demarcating "good," .300 "very good" and .350 "unbelievable").

 

Chances are Trout ends somewhere in the .330s and Cabrera in the upper .340s.

[rageous]

It will be interesting to see if Trout can reach 11 WAR on fangraphs and 10 WAR on BR by the end of the year.

[Angelsjunky]

Rageous, if he continues at his year-long pace and plays every game, then he'll finish with 11.2 fWAR and 9.8 rWAR. Of course in such a small sample anything can happen, but it seems likely that, at the least, he finishes with 10.5+ and 9+.

[ten ocho recon scout]

I agree, Jason - but there's enough of a chance (say, 10%?) that its worth mentioning.

With 20 games left, Trout's at .338. 20 games ago he was at .330, so that's an 8-point gain.

The Tigers have 19 games left and Cabrera's at .353. 19 games ago he was at .360, so that's a 7-point loss.

.338 + .008 = .346

.353 - .007 = .346

Unlikely - probably very unlikely - but possible.

I'm betting tanya harding could use some extra spending cash.

Lets pass around a hat.

[YouthofToday]

Chicks dig the Walk

Absolutely. Mike Trout is exceptional at not making outs by taking his girlfriend on long walks on the beach.

Dudes who hit on girls who hack all the time, and don't take girls on long walks on the beach, create far too many outs.

Be like Trout. Succeed with women more often. Take more walks!!! It isn't a false stat.

[jsnpritchett]

I'm betting tanya harding could use some extra spending cash.

Lets pass around a hat.

 

Cabrera getting hurt would actually be worse for Trout.

[gurn67]

Cabrera has 3 singles this month. No extra base hits. I know Mike's not going to get the MVP, (even his manager threw him under the bus for that) but another historic month to finish off a second historic season could bring him another ton of hardware from awards not voted on by the sportswriters. Batting title would be pretty awesome as well.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Cabrera getting hurt would actually be worse for Trout.

only if he went on the dl.

So this time she doesn't lead pipe a kneecap, but maybe indian burns his forearms real bad. That should tweak his mechanics just enough...

[Halos of Anaheim]

Trout will finish with a higher OBP than Cabrera since he's collecting alot of walks now, but I don't think he catches up in BA unless Cabrera really chokes down the stretch.

[Troll Daddy]

I thought Trout would be the perfect #3 hitter but now I think #1 is his best spot.

[Angel Oracle]

The O's slump, and potentially missing the post-season, has me pushing Trout ahead of Davis and right on Cabrera's heels.

 

Andre Dawson was MVP one year when the Cubbies were LAST in the NL East (1987).

The number of previous players having two seasons at ages 20/21-21/22 like Trout has had = zero?

Edited September 12, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[fan_since79]

The O's slump, and potentially missing the post-season, has me pushing Trout ahead of Davis and right on Cabrera's heels.

 

Andre Dawson was MVP one year when the Cubbies were LAST in the NL East (1987).

The number of previous players having two seasons at ages 20/21-21/22 like Trout has had = zero?

 

Ted Williams is the only one that comes to mind. His 21/22 year season was a monster one, a .406 average and 1.287 OPS.

Edited September 13, 2013 by fan_since79

[AngelsLakersFan]

Ted Williams is the only one that comes to mind. His 21/22 year season was a monster one, a .406 average and 1.287 OPS.

 

To be fair that is considered to be Williams age 22 season, which will be what Trout's next season will be considered. Their first two whole seasons in MLB are pretty similar and at the same ages.

 

Williams hit .327, then went on to hit .344 with a .442 OBP. His next year was .406 / .553

Trout hit .326 and coming into todays game he was hitting .336 with a .437 OBP. What will Trout do next year?

[Taylor]

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2013/09/mike-trout-wont-win-the-mvp-but-hes-baseballs-most-valuable-player/

[Docwaukee]

To be fair that is considered to be Williams age 22 season, which will be what Trout's next season will be considered. Their first two whole seasons in MLB are pretty similar and at the same ages.

 

Williams hit .327, then went on to hit .344 with a .442 OBP. His next year was .406 / .553

Trout hit .326 and coming into todays game he was hitting .336 with a .437 OBP. What will Trout do next year?

with pitching the way it is nowadays, I think anyone is going to be hard pressed to replicate some of the numbers those guys were putting up.  Williams 22yo season he had 147bb and 27k. 

 

Relief pitching back then was basically seeing a completely gassed starter for the 4th or 5th time. 

 

Now you see a guy 3 times or so and then have to face a guy throwing 97mph with a filthy secondary pitch. 

 

Plus, defenses were sloppy as hell.  Imagine how many more hits trout would have with his speed on semi routine plays to the shortstop where he would beat a throw. 

 

The year that williams hit .406, the league combined for more walks than strikeouts and each team averaged about 100 unearned runs.  There were 8 total teams with about 8-10 pitchers on each.  They would see the same guys over and over.  Honestly, someone hitting .350 now is like hitting .400 back then. 

[gurn67]

Good point. For his career, Trout is hitting .282 the first time he faces the starter. .349 the second time he faces the starter and .375 with an OPS of 1.080 the third time he faces the starting pitcher. The infrequent times he happens to face the starter a 4th time he's got a Barroidian Slg. of .705 and OPS of 1.114.

[markb]

To be fair that is considered to be Williams age 22 season, which will be what Trout's next season will be considered. Their first two whole seasons in MLB are pretty similar and at the same ages.

 

Williams hit .327, then went on to hit .344 with a .442 OBP. His next year was .406 / .553

Trout hit .326 and coming into todays game he was hitting .336 with a .437 OBP. What will Trout do next year?

 

Toss out his crappy April and it's .355/.462 since May 1st.  .367/.512 since the ASB.  .417/.563 so far in September.  

 

The trajectory just continues upward, and it gets really easy to be hyperbolic about all this, especially with Trout being the lone bright spot in a turd of a season.  In theory, he's still 5-6 years from his peak.  Imagining where his ceiling lies is a bit scary.