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Gameday Thread: World Baseball Classic Championship - Japan vs USA

At the risk of being chastised by @Docwaukee for writing an optimistic post heading into the season (he and I have a shared bad track record), or garnering complaints about the infamous AJ Jinx, I can't help but feel...hopeful for the season. Being an Angels fan of 40+ years, I've long learned to sublimate optimism, but hope springs eternal, and there are actually legitimate reasons to feel good about the 2023 season.

I thought it would be best to create a thread to keep up with who may make the roster out of spring. There's some compelling cases for some of our prospects and Davidson vs. Canning could be something to watch for the 6th spot in the rotation. 

Who has stood out to you thus far? 

Here's some to watch: 

Matt Thaiss vs. Logan O'Hoppe

Mickey Moniak vs. Brett Phillips

Livan Soto vs. Andrew Velazquez 

Tucker Davidson vs. Griffin Canning

Ben Joyce, Kolton Ingram, Luke Murphy, Kenny Rosenberg and Jacob Webb are all having good springs as far as the bullpen goes. 

Trey Cabbage, Taylor Jones, Jake Lamb are all having good springs as well. 

 

First off, has this ever happened? I imagine so with the Yankees of old, but I went through the lineup and thought at first that it could produce 20 or more HR's at seven positions/spots in the lineup, then noticed it would be super close if Rengifo gets the majority of starts at SS and Logan O'Hoppe gets a good chunk at the at bats at C. 

Rengifo hit 17 HR in 489 at bats in 2022 and Logan O'Hoppe hit 26 bombs in Double-A last year and Stassi has hit as much as 13 HR in the big leagues (2021) and hit 17 HR in the minors in 2013. 

Let's take a quick look at the player projections from CBS Sportsline. Note: Some of these projections are quite low and they've always been a bit conservative in their projections. Especially for HR's. 

Basically if everyone stays fairly healthy throughout the season and avoids longs stints on the IL, there's a good chance every position in the lineup could produce 20 or more HR this season. 

1B Jared Walsh: 20 HR / Gio Urshela 14 HR 

2B Brandon Drury: 21 HR / Luis Rengifo 17 HR 

SS Luis Rengifo: 17 HR / David Fletcher 4 HR / Gio Urshela 14 HR

3B Anthony Rendon: 13 HR / Gio Urshela 14 HR * CBS has Rendon's HR projections very low based on his playing time the past three years, dating back to the Covid shortened season. He can easily pop 20-25+ HR if he stays healthy over an entire season. 

LF Taylor Ward: 23 HR

CF Mike Trout: 41 HR

RF Hunter Renfroe: 26 HR (hit 29 HR last season in just 125 games)

DH Shohei Ohtani: 31 HR (seems a bit low)

C Max Stassi 14 HR / Logan O'Hoppe 11 HR

22. Los Angeles Angels

The weather is nice in Orange County, but there are no bars and it’s not overly close to many local Angels fans. Parking is plentiful and tailgating is allowed with one major caveat – no alcohol. (Last year: 25th)

Full Article: https://bookies.com/mlb/picks/ranking-mlb-ballparks-fan-experience

The Reds/Angels game is on Bally Sports West: 


They're also playing at the Rangers (no TV):

I will attempt to do this daily.  
 

The Angels beat the A’s 5-4.  June 12th, 2015

the mighty Kyle Kubitza appeared.  Delightful. 

 

Gameday Thread: Angels vs. SF Giants (Feb 27th, 2023) - Walsh in the lineup!

Gameday Thread White Sox @ Angels (2/26/23) 12:10 PM

Angels close to signing Matt Moore

I'll go first. 

1. A healthy Walsh, Rendon, Trout entering the 2023 season opener. 

2. Shohei Ohtani signed extension. (Nobody needs the distraction all season long).

3. Good performances by some of your top relief prospects (Joyce, Torres, Ingram, Murphy, etc.)

4. A solid battle between Canning, Rodriguez, Silseth and Davidson for the #6 spot in the rotation. 

5. Rengifo establishing himself as a solid SS in spring camp that ultimately wins him the starting job.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-25/sports-broadcaster-diamond-faces-8-6-billion-debt-reckoning

This is potentially very big news for the Angels and could affect payroll for awhile going forward. They may have to negotiate a lower contract and/or may have to find a different broadcast partner. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm not an expert on this, but it seems like it may be a big story going forward. 

What’s your list of things he must do for you to be ok with his decision not to sell?

Fire Carpino, bring in PBO with track record of success. 

Extend Ohtani

Finish the off season with a couple of bullpen moves

Increase minor league budget so we stop hearing stories about us being cheap 

 

Arte Moreno announces he is no longer looking to sell the Angels

Besides the obvious: a winning team that perennially makes the playoffs and wins World Series titles.

I’ll start with a couple things:

• Top down investment in the organization, starting with a President of Baseball Operations being given a huge budget and full autonomy over baseball operations.

• Bring back a version of these full time:

By Jonathan Northrop, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer

Introduction: It Can't Be Worse

While we just tipped over into the second half of January, which means we're still several weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting (February 14) and two and a half months from Opening Day (March 30), it is still the new year, and it seems that the Angels are--barring a surprise move--mostly done in assembling their 2023 team.

How does the team look? What can we expect and reasonably hope for? One thing this post will not be is a Debby Downer rant about worst-case scenarios and the poor moves of past and present management. I will try to be as objective as possible, but err towards the side of how good the team can reasonably be, if more things go right than wrong.

Injuries happen. Players have bad years. But players also have good years, and it is unusual that a team suffers the almost uncanny combination of bad luck and injury that the 2022 team experienced, essentialized in their 14-game losing streak. Chances are, no matter how bad it gets in 2023, it won't get that bad. And GM Perry Minasian has put a lot of work--and fair amount of money--into preventing a repeat of that debacle.

The rotation looks, at the very least, quite solid, with the potential to be very good. There are a wide range of outcomes for the bullpen, so it bears watching. But the Angels have a lot of minor league arms to draw from, as well as (hopefully) a healthy Chris Rodriguez and Griffin Canning.

There are no certainties in major league baseball (or life), but we can at least look at the Angels and say that this team has a chance to be very good - and maybe even better. But the risk is there; they're as likely to win 80 games as they are 90 but, I would say, more likely to win 95 than 75. The talent is there.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/the-angels-potentially-elite-rotation.html

Excerpt:

"Regardless of who the sixth option is, there’s a lot to like about this group, even if they were just able to put in a repeat of their 2022 performance. But the key for the Angels is there’s also a ton of upside in this group, particularly in the back of the rotation. That’s the sort of thing that could go from making this a strong rotation to one that is up there with the best in baseball. Of course, an injury or two could derail things quickly and there’s a chance that players take a step back rather than a step forward, but the potential is there for this group to be dominant."

Dude is legit. Rosenthal and numerous other writers follow him. Susan Slusser retweeted this. He later posted more info in an article:

https://undertheknife.substack.com/p/utk-short-123122?sd=pf

Relevant info:

"The Angels have several bidders. Patrick Seong-Shoon, who owns a piece of the Lakers, a hospital system, and the LA Times is leading one group. A Japanese consortium is funding another and wants a good front man. At least one group from minority Dodgers owners is circling a bid, if not actually making one. There’s some smaller characters around, but this is following the typical pattern. They’d like to select one ownership group well ahead of the season due to the unique Shohei Ohtani situation. Sign him, trade him, it needs to be dealt with relatively quickly."

And later, 

"We’ll see how both these situations play out, but I expect the Angels to be first, perhaps getting to a preferred bidder ahead of spring training."

Make your predictions.  

Here's some stats for your pleasure.  Bear in mind that these stats are balls in play.  It does not take into account if there was the shift on but the player walked, k'd or hit a hr.  

So here's a fun one:

In 2022, Adell was shifted 90 times and had a wRC+ of 113 whereas in the 62 times he wasn't shifted, his wRC+ was 122.  HEY JO!  PUT THE BALL IN PLAY!

How about Shohei over the last 3 years?  Shifted 742 times.  wRC+ of 98.  No shift?  50 times with a wRC+ of 72.  

Mike Trout you ask?  shifted 359 times with a wRC+ of 126.  No shift 99 times with a wRC+ of 92.  

Jared Walsh - shifted 632 times.  wRC+ of 90.  No shift 65 times.  wRC+ of 101.

Fletcher -   shifted 178 times.  wRC+ of 78.  No shift 770 times.  wRC+ of 75.  HEY DAVID!  WALK MORE!

These numbers are obviously skewed for various reasons.  Like for Trout and Ohtani - the only times they don't shift them is likely when runners are on base and they aren't getting crap to hit.  

Anyway.  Thoughts?  

 

 

The previous 3 years, payroll has hovered around 180m.  Granted there were a couple of trades or it would have been a bit higher but for the sake of argument, let's call it that.  

It sure has been nice to see what a GM can do with an extra 26m (and maybe more) in his pocket.  

It's almost exactly Drury+Urshela+Estevez.  I would not like this team as much at all right now if we stopped at Renfroe and Anderson.  Or if they'd had reallocated the 25m spent on Renfroe and Anderson to other players.  

I tried to avoid the next comment, but I can't help myself.  Imagine how much different if a situation this franchise would have been in had they been able to spend an additional 10-15% over the last 7 years.  

Maybe it's just a coincidence that Arte opens the coffers in his final year as owner.  But I doubt any of us really think that.  

As an aside, while there has been some confusion about Minasian's plan, I think it is pretty clear at this point: to raise the floor of performance, and hope that the premier talent already on the team actualizes itself better. Or to use another metaphor, he's patching holes in the boat. But he's not upgrading the engine....why? Presumably because of payroll considerations and the impending sale, but also - and adequately enough as an explanation - the engine itself is already pretty good, it just had problems last year. Raising the floor not only fills out the gaps in the roster with better players than last year, but it also means better replacements in the eventuality of injury.

Meaning, the Angels already have star power: Trout and Ohtani are still among the very best in the game, and if you squint just right, a healthy Rendon would still be pretty good; and Sandoval and Detmers are emerging studs. And we can dream on what Ward might do, bounce-backs from Stassi and Walsh, and a solid secondary group of new and old players like Rengifo, Fletcher, and some of the new guys.

Which brings me to the question of the thread. If we assume that Minasian is done with significant moves, aside from a small move here and there, what questions remain that won't be answered in ST, but also will presumably be answered then?

I would say that the offense/defense and the starting pitching are good.  Good enough to where they are playoff worthy if nothing catastrophic happens from an injury standpoint.  Granted, we seen that occur in the past, but just got to keep those fingers crossed.  There is still a bit of work that could be done to improve those two areas but it's likely to be marginal at this point.  An innings eater.  Perhaps a better backup catcher.  A legit 4th OFer.  

But where the rubber meets the road is gonna be about who toes the mound from about the 6th inning on.  It would certainly be helpful if the rotation could increase their innings load some without a dip in performance.  Particularly Detmers, Suarez, and Sandoval.  Last year we ended up with the fourth most pen innings.  But only about 40 innings away from being in the middle of the pack which I think is easily doable.  And even more so if they add another SPer.  

Ok so we have signed Anderson which should solidify our rotation and we’ve acquired Urshela which shores up or corner infield position. What move would you like to see next? This answer can go a lot of ways. We still need outfield help, we still need an everyday SS, perhaps another arm for the rotation, or a closer.  Or even an extension for Ohtani.  Personally I think the player that brings us the most wins is probably Nimmo.  Plays a position of need, gets on base 38% of the time, bats left handed, and fills a need at the top of the line up.  I think his cost could prevent the signing but they’ve already added $23 million in payroll and Perry doesn’t sound like he’s done.  It finally feels like they are building a roster. 

In the 2015 offseason we needed an outfielder. Cespedes, Upton, Gordon, and Heyward were available. Many fans including me were screaming for us to get one of them. We missed out on all of them.

What can we learn? 

Cespedes signed a 3/75 deal with the Mets. He had and incredible first year, opted out, and then signed a 4/110 with the Mets. He finished having one great season with the Mets before injuries essentially ended his career. 

Upton signed a 6/132 contract with Tigers. He played very well on Tigers before they ...well you know the rest.

Gordon signed a 4/72 with the Royals and played mediocre to just plain terrible. 

Heyward signed a disastrous 8/184 with the Cubs. 

The Angels platoon plan of Nava/Gentry was an incredible poorly executed plan 

Looking back 3 of the 4 outfielders would have been really bad, but our plan while cheaper was a giant mistake as well. 

I think these 4 SS are more elite than those outfielders, but I guess I'm feeling I hope we have a legitimate back-up plan if we don't land one. 

With the upcoming Winter Meetings, there's lots of speculation as to what Minasian and the Angels might do, and with it a great deal of uncertainty. For one, Minasian has already plugged significant roster performance leakage with the acquisitions of Tyler Anderson (starting depth), Gio Urshela (bench depth), and Hunter Renfroe (starting outfielder). But holes remain, or at least questions: the bullpen lacks firepower, the starting middle infielders, and the sixth starter.

Those questions have in-house answers: The Angels have David Fletcher and Luis Rengifo, both of whom have strengths and weaknesses. Fletcher is a Gold Glove caliber second baseman and a plus shortstop, but with a weak bat. Rengifo seemed to have a legit breakthrough with the bat last year, but is probably average plus at second base and average minus at shortstop, so doubles with Fletcher as a guy who is best utilized at second base. Gio Urshela is stretched at either position, but could fill in in a pinch, and is more likely to rotate as a super utility player who provides insurance for Rendon and Walsh, and ends up accruing regular playing time at multiple positions (or so Minasian says). Livan Soto and Andrew Velazquez will duke it out for the final bench spot, though one or both will likely end up in AAA to start the season. But the point being, the Angels have adequate coverage of the middle infield, but have room for improvement - especially with a starting shortstop, which would move Rengifo and Fletcher into a 2B/UT platoon.