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By Taylor Blake Ward, AngelsWin.com Columnist

GENERAL THOUGHTS

Perspective only comes with a full view. I write this as a caveat, as most will make an initial knee-jerk reaction to any club's first-round selection and make that the brash opinion of the entire draft for the club as it has the most value and is the one with the most accessible perceptions as to the player taken. For example, speaking to a Texas Rangers fanatic on Sunday night, he was distraught that Texas spent their first-round pick on Kumar Rocker much earlier than anticipated he would go and could not surrender the thought of losing value with the pick, and later altered his opinion when the team took Brock Porter in the fourth round. It's easy to make a reaction, but a full view can give you proper perception to how any given team did with their draft on paper.

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This offseason is going to be absolutely crucial to both the long and short term success of the club.  Trout is starting to show signs of decline, and Ohtani is only guaranteed to be here another year.  There's a very good chance this could be our last chance to win with the group of players we have now, before we bottom out and have seasons comparable or worse to this one, a step down from the 4 preceding it.  They're really going to have to make sure they play this right.  With that said, I'm curious how you guys all see this play out.  

You're Shohei Ohtani, and you're halfway through a second year in which you lead the majors in overall WAR, and have pretty much established yourself as the best--or at least, most unique--player in baseball. You're doing things that have never been done. You just turned 28 years old and are in your prime. But you look around at your team, facing its worst season in a long time, with no signs of the improvement that various GMs have promised over the years. 

So what would get you to sign a long-term contract with the Angels? The caveat, of course, is that we're not in his head, and the cultural differences make the divide even greater. As far as I know, we don't know if Shohei likes playing for a kind of under-the-radar team, or if he'd enjoy the spotlight of playing for a premier franchise like the Yankees, Dodgers, or Red Sox. But play make-believe, for a moment.

I'm thinking one of two scenarios:

1. Arte makes him an offer he can't refuse this offseason, something like 10/$500M. I think it would probably have to be something like that for him to sign with the Angels....it is hard to refuse a guaranteed half a billion dollars. I could also see him agreeing to something like 2/$100M, which gives him a chance to sign another big contract when he's 30.

2. You wait to see how the team does in 2023. If they're bad, you leave pretty much no matter what - unless you struggle, get hurt, and/or Arte makes the offer above. Or, if they're good and reach the postseason, you ride the wave and take the "home-team discount" - which isn't really a discount, but rather a market value contract signed with your home-team before reaching free agency. With Shohei, we don't know what that is. But assuming he continues as-is next year, probably something like 8/$400M or 10/$450M.

Do you agree with the gist of the above, or do you think he'll require more or less, or simply test free agency no matter what?

He’s owed 3/$48M after this season for his age 33, 34, and 35 seasons.

The Angels would probably be better off re-allocating that $16M AAV, especially since they already have $14M in AAV tied up between Loup and Tepera (who likely don’t have trade value).

The value would mainly lie in freeing up the money to make the team more well-rounded, but it’s possible they could get a useful piece in return.

While Iglesias has a high ERA, his peripherals are still very good (3.21 FIP, 2.71 xFIP, 12.94 K/9) and he has a very good career track record. Closers are always in demand, so I’d imagine there’d be interest.

As I said in another thread, I lost that heart-felt edge ("caring") a few weeks ago, when I accepted that the team wasn't going anywhere this year. I probably haven't watched a game since then.

But this is getting weird. I honestly can't remember when the team was playing this bad. The seasons blur together, and the only thing that stands out is that slump in late 1995 (you know the one). Let's take a look.

The Angels are now 12-36 (.250) over their last 48 games. Let's look at the worst spans of 30-60ish games, with the goal of finding a worst span (below .250) in at least 35 games. Here are the 35+ game spans that were worse than .333:

2021: Started 56-54 and then went 17-34 (.333) to 73-80, finished 77-85.

2020: The start of the short season, going 12-25 (.324). Finished strong (14-9), 26-34.

2019: Started 54-49, went 18-41 (.305) for the rest of the season, finishing 72-90.

2015: Was 54-40 on July 22, then went 11-26 (.297), falling to 65-66, then finished the year 85-77.

2013: 44-46 on July 6, then went 11-25 (.306) to fall to 55-71, and finished 78-84.

2001: Started 66-58 then finished 9-29 (.237) to finish 75-87. 

So we have to go all the way back to 2001 to find a worse span in at least 35 games. But that was only 38 games - ten less than this year. Can we find one closer in game count? The Angels' last 48 games in 2001 was 16-32 (.333) -- really bad, but not as bad as this year.

1999: The Angels were 41-44 a game before the ASB, and then went on an 11-40 (.216) run, finishing the year 70-92, one of only five times they've lost 92 or more games.

So we have to go back to 1999--one of the five worst seasons in franchise history--to find a worse span.

Oh, and in case you're wondering, the Angels went 6-24 (.200) or 7-25 in late 1995, when they fell from 64-38 to 73-66, losing a 10.5 game lead and alling 3 games behind the Mariners. So even that wasn't as bad, or at least for as long.

The Angels are now 39-53, with 70 games remaining. If they play .500 for the rest of the year, they'll finish 74-88. If they play .400, they'll finish with 67-95, tying their franchise worse record.

 

By Taylor Blake Ward, AngelsWin.com Feature Writer

The clock is now down to days before the first name in the 2022 MLB Draft is called. I’ve been gathering information from around the industry to put together my final in-detail mock draft for 2022, and will have a names only one coming just prior to the draft itself on Sunday at 4pm PT.

You can read my first and only other mock for the year, Mock Draft 1.0, from HomePlateView.com from July 1, here

As noted throughout, the top pick will dictate much of the first third of the draft. No one knows what Baltimore is doing with the first pick and won’t up until the name is called. As always, enjoy...


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Gameday Thread: Astros vs. Angels (July 12th, 2022) Stefanic leads off

I mean, it has to, right? The Mets seem to have an owner who knows how to spend money to win, and Eppler's off-season moves make him look like a genius.

Obviously, it's too early to see how the Mets' farm system changes over the next several years under Eppler. But from a Big League standpoint, it's hard to come to any conclusion other than Eppler's time here was hamstrung by terrible ownership. Either that or he's been incredibly lucky so far this season.

The Mike Trout/Shohei Ohtani MVP watch. 

Ohtani's progression as a starting pitcher. 

Sandoval & Detmers continued success! 

Ohtani offered a lifetime extension! I don't believe the Angels should trade Ohtani. 

I say, play all the prospects and trade away everyone with a 1-year deals. Would love to see some of these arms from Double-A contribute, much like we've seen from Silseth. 

If you can get a haul for Taylor Ward, do it. 

Outside of that, I'm looking forward to seeing what Stefanic can do, Adell with consistent playing time as well as Rengifo who has slashed .321/.333/ .518 over his last 15 games. 

What say you? 

Gameday Thread: Angels @ O’s (July 10th, 2022)

Gameday Thread: Angels @ Orioles (July 9th, 2022) 1PM PST

Someone make this make sense. Please.

Gameday Thread (7/1/22): Angels @ Astros - Apple TV+ exclusive game

Gameday Thread White Sox @ Angels 6/29/2022 Ohtani on the mound

Gameday Thread (6/27/22): White Sox @ Angels

As I and others have mentioned, one of the biggest problems the Angels currently have is weak depth beyond their frontline regulars. This can be illustrated by the following chart:


To clarify, green is above average (100), purple below - rounded to the nearest 5. The columns are different widths relative to plate appearances, and ordered from highest to lowest (e.g. Trout has the highest wRC+ on the Angels and third most PA). I've included all players with 10+ PA.

Now while it may not be fair to compare them to the Yankees and Astros - the two best teams, and top offenses, in the AL - they provide examples of how a championship caliber offense "should" look. The Astros have been garden variety great, while the Yankees have been historically great.

At first blush, there isn't a huge difference - especially with the Astros. But now consider how much purple (negative wRC+) there is on the Angels compared to the other two teams. The Angels have significantly more than the Astros, and the Yankees barely have any.

Furthermore, once you get past Rendon and Stassi (the two "squat" green columns), every single player has a negative wRC+, whereas the Yankees in particular have several positive contributors among less PA players. Some further comparisons:

Among players with 100 PA or more, the Angels have four players with 120+ wRC+. The Astros have six, and the Yankees five. 


Among players with 10+ PA, 6 of 19 (32%) on the Angels are positive; 7 of 15 (47%) on the Astros; 9 of 16 (56%) on the Yankees.


Andrew Velazquez has the lowest wRC+ (39) of any player in the majors with 200+ PA.


Among 259 players with 150+ PA, Tyler Wade is #246 (55 wRC+), and Velazquez #256 (39). The Angels are only of only three teams--along with the Athletics and Rays--who have two players in the bottom 15.


If that didn't illustrate it well enough, this should do the trick:


This, I think, illustrates the problem to an even greater extent. Consider how much of the Angels hitting is in shades of purple. They've got two players who have had great hitting years so far in Trout and Ward, then Ohtani and Walsh as good to very good, then everyone else is average or worse - and mostly worse.

I want you guys to tell me one reason you think the Angels are losing, and I'm going to crunch the numbers to find out what's true and what's just perception.

Sort of like Mythbusters.

For example

"The Angels strike out too much."

"The Angels situational hitting is bad."

"The Angels rotation is bad."

Go!

Gameday Thread (6/22/22): Royals @ Angels - off-days for Trout and Walsh

Click on the gallery below to view all 150 pictures.


Some really good pictures that the Angels sent me 13 or so years ago that I thought I'd share on this 20th anniversary of the Angels World Championship season. 

By @taylorblakeward, AngelsWin.com Staff Writer

With just under a month before the first name is called in the 2022 Major League Baseball amateur Draft, we take a look at some of the potential candidates for the Angels first selection at pick No. 13, as well as some personal favorites who may be options with their second pick, which comes in the third round at No. 89.

With a prep and bat-heavy class at the top, it is safe to rule out some names no matter how unorthodox the draft may pan out over the first 12 picks. At the top, prepsters Druw Jones (Wesleyan - GA), Termarr Johnson (Mays - GA), Jackson Holliday (Stillwater, OK), and Elijah Green (IMG Academy - FL) are safe bets to be off the board. Brooks Lee (Cal Poly), Kevin Parada (Georgia Tech), and Cam Collier (Chipola JC) are also viewed heavily as top 10 selections who are unlikely to reach the Angels. As you'll note, all of these players are position players which will come at an unprecedented number early due to the lack of high-scale pitching and injuries to the top arms in the class.

Since entering into executive powers, clubs Perry Minasian has been affiliated with -- albeit roles altered some (or most) of his decision-making powers -- have taken pitchers with a first-round pick 18-of-26 times. It's enough of a sample and a school of training (i.e. Alex Anthopolous) to see a potential early common thread of Minasian's view to the draft and building from the ground up: Pitching. It is no anomaly that the majority of names attached to the Angels early in the draft are all mound dwellers.

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Gameday Thread (6/20/22): Royals @ Angels - Syndergaard on the mound

Gameday Thread (6/18/22 DH Game 1): Angels @ Mariners

I think it's way too early for this but since the Halos have gone down the toilet over the last 30 days it's a discussion worth having. I don't think there is anyway this team can make up ground in the division. The Astros as usual are the best team in the ALW and nobody is going to catch them. However we are only 5 games back in the wild card. All it takes is getting hot at the right time. But I don't beleive this years team has the capacity to achieve this. At this rate they are on pace to win 4 games a month. 

I just want to make a few things clear. I do understand the season is a marathon and not a sprint. But this team is outright bad, like Orioles bad. Probably even worse. 

Gameday Thread (6/16/22): Angels @ Mariners - still no Rendon

Gameday Thread (6/15/22) Angels @ Dodgers - no Rendon