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MLB Trade Rumors: The Angels' Potentially Elite Rotation


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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/the-angels-potentially-elite-rotation.html

Excerpt:

"Regardless of who the sixth option is, there’s a lot to like about this group, even if they were just able to put in a repeat of their 2022 performance. But the key for the Angels is there’s also a ton of upside in this group, particularly in the back of the rotation. That’s the sort of thing that could go from making this a strong rotation to one that is up there with the best in baseball. Of course, an injury or two could derail things quickly and there’s a chance that players take a step back rather than a step forward, but the potential is there for this group to be dominant."

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Elite?  That's some rather strong praise.  I'm not so sure if they are elite, but we have come a long way from where we were a few years ago.  We have a good, young, solid core, headlined by a star who we can hopefully retain, and a few promising guys in the minors.  The article even references Bachman, who has been somewhat forgotten after a poor year and dip in FB velo, but he certainly does have promise if he can get back on track.

But, yeah - it would be nice to get a 6th SP, to help improve our depth.

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Depth is the name of the game. They'll acquire another starter and sit six deep. But as has been mentioned before, you really need to be ten deep. Granted, 7-10 don't have to be studs, but they also can't get lit up either. So having Silseth, Canning, Bush, Rodriguez, Davis.... That's very necessary. 

If the Angels have a fatal flaw headed into 2023 though, it's the bullpen. It's neither good, nor deep, and I picture guys like Rodriguez and Davis being forced to transition to relief just to get the team by. 

Edited by Second Base
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11 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Depth is the name of the game. They'll acquire another starter and sit six deep. But as has been mentioned before, you really need to be ten deep. Granted, 7-10 don't have to be studs, but they also can't get lit up either. So having Silseth, Canning, Bush, Rodriguez, Davis.... That's very necessary. 

If the Angels have a fatal flaw headed into 2023 though, it's the bullpen. It's neither good, nor deep, and I picture guys like Rodriguez and Davis being forced to transition to relief just to get the team by. 

I think if CRod can somehow get through a chunk of the season healthy, he'll take it, whether it's as a SP or a RP.  I liked how his stuff played up as a reliever, and given how few innings he has pitched over the years, it might be a good idea to just aim for about 50-60 IP this year as a reliever, and then consider building him back up to a SP in future years if he can get through this season.

I think Joyce could become a force in the pen fairly quickly.  Ingram, who is on the 40-man roster now, seems like he could at least be a solid depth option.  @Trendon referenced Weiss on Twitter and here as well - someone who has rather good stuff and could be a "find."

If you simply add Joyce and CRod to the current bullpen mix, such that we have Estevez, Herget, CRod, Quijada, Joyce, Tepera, Loup, Barria .. that seems pretty decent?  

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26 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I think if CRod can somehow get through a chunk of the season healthy, he'll take it, whether it's as a SP or a RP.  I liked how his stuff played up as a reliever, and given how few innings he has pitched over the years, it might be a good idea to just aim for about 50-60 IP this year as a reliever, and then consider building him back up to a SP in future years if he can get through this season.

I think Joyce could become a force in the pen fairly quickly.  Ingram, who is on the 40-man roster now, seems like he could at least be a solid depth option.  @Trendon referenced Weiss on Twitter and here as well - someone who has rather good stuff and could be a "find."

If you simply add Joyce and CRod to the current bullpen mix, such that we have Estevez, Herget, CRod, Quijada, Joyce, Tepera, Loup, Barria .. that seems pretty decent?  

Looking at the group of Estevez, Quijada, Herget, Tepera, Loup...I see a lot of middle relievers with an upper threes ERA. I like Barria in that long relief role. 

But as far as Rodriguez and Joyce....Rod's ability to pitch in a rotation is what sets him apart from any other hard thrower. You don't want to waste that ability on a bullpen spot unless you have to. Then there's the argument about what truly keeps him healthier, going max effort for 20 pitches every three days or pacing himself for 90 every six days. Nothing I've seen from his injury suggests that it's due to over use. 

And Joyce needs refinement on his slider and to iron out a few things before jumping into the deep end with the big boys. He'll get there, but I don't think anyone would be opposed to him spending most of the year in AA developing before an August promotion. Folks get caught up on the velocity but forget just how much more there is to this craft than throwing hard. Yeah his heater sits 101, but it's pretty straight and while he spotted, that, his slider and change piece well in AA, it was in a small sample. He's good, and in time I think he's going to be great, but I'm just not convinced he's ready yet.

Edited by Second Base
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the bullpen is better than people think. if they add one more piece, then it's even better. what that piece could be and how it would incorporate into defining roles is an unknown.

i'd be very happy with cueto and a high leverage reliever

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Increasing the number of innings without a sacrifice in performance.  By WAR, we were 6th but rank 17th in innings.  

Most teams can manipulate their SP to where they get a really strong performance but pulling guys early because of limits on times through the rotation is risky when you don't have the pen to support it.  The Giants are a good example of that from last year.  

Here's another fun stat.  The Angels were 2nd in baseball in inherited runners scored and 3rd in baseball in inherited runners.  That tells me something about pen management.  There's some noise in there, but how about not putting the next guy in a horrendous pickle.  

But back to the starters...

Detmers, Suarez and Sandoval need to get deeper into games.  But not by much.  Maybe 15-20 innings apiece.  And Anderson needs to effectively replace Noah and Lorenzen.  Which also isn't a tall task.  Those two made 33 starts but accumulated only 180ip and 2.2 WAR.  I can live with Anderson being a 2.2 WAR pitcher and 5 less starts than those two.  Tack those mediocre innings onto Suarez and we're about where we started.  

But the rest.  The rest is where you make up ground.  Those 29 other starts by 10 other players for a total of about 120 innings and a 5.4 ERA and a -0.2 WAR.  Which actually isn't terrible and speaks to the decent depth they already had.  But drop a Wacha in that spot and you've just shaved off about 30-40 runs.  Wacha obviously isn't a 3-4 win player but remember that those runs are coming from the really crappy part of your pen as well.   In other words, replace your worst 50 pen innings with that of a mediocre starter.  

You're effectively adding starting depth, decreasing the number of spot/pen games, AND essentially getting rid of a crappy reliever's worth of performance.  

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I'd be fine with CRod in the pen on a schedule.  Which is what I think will happen this year.  He's red ass balls to the wall every time you get him ready.  And if he's up down up down, that's not good for him at all.  They kinda need to save him from himself.  Put him out there for like 1-3 innings every 2-4 days.  But you have to avoid the temptation early in the year to get him rolling when you've got a high leverage spot.  

I'm ramping up Canning in the minors to kick off the year.   Just get him on a mound every few days consistently and see how it goes.  Let him get a feel for what made him successful and hopefully build off of it.  Then decide whether that's in the pen or as a starter.  

Don't even remotely rush Joyce.  He's got one great trick but major leaguers are going to figure out the magic behind that trick pretty quickly until he adds another one to keep the audience honest.  I think it would be a mistake to rush him.  

I don't agree that the pen isn't deep.  It's plenty deep.  There are a lot of capable arms that will likely get major league outs in a good way this year and in the future.  There's probably almost too many choices at this point.  

The audition for those few spots is gonna be challenging to pick from.  Weiss, Davidson, Wantz, Garza, Marte, Ingram, Warren, Devenski, Webb, Reyes, Torres, Joyce, Murphy, Vieaux, Walters, Romero, Holder etc.  And then there's another layer after that.  Ain't a lot of room on the 40 man for those young guys out of the gate unless they really really impress.  The first batch will be the guys already on there like Daniel, Warren, Ingram, Marte, Garza, Weiss and Davidson.  Devenski is probably in that bucket too.  Essentially it will be 2 of a group of about 10 that will break camp with the team unless of course they add another arm.  

I also think that's why they're waiting a bit to add another RP.  They've got enough randoms who would put together a decent season.  So unless you can add a guy you are absolutely sure is going to be significantly better or less volatile, don't bother.  

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7 hours ago, Warfarin said:

I think if CRod can somehow get through a chunk of the season healthy, he'll take it, whether it's as a SP or a RP.  I liked how his stuff played up as a reliever, and given how few innings he has pitched over the years, it might be a good idea to just aim for about 50-60 IP this year as a reliever, and then consider building him back up to a SP in future years if he can get through this season.

I think Joyce could become a force in the pen fairly quickly.  Ingram, who is on the 40-man roster now, seems like he could at least be a solid depth option.  @Trendon referenced Weiss on Twitter and here as well - someone who has rather good stuff and could be a "find."

If you simply add Joyce and CRod to the current bullpen mix, such that we have Estevez, Herget, CRod, Quijada, Joyce, Tepera, Loup, Barria .. that seems pretty decent?  

Can’t forget Murphy, with his SEC background and solid arm, albeit still needing to clean up the control issues.

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2 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

I'd be fine with CRod in the pen on a schedule.  Which is what I think will happen this year.  He's red ass balls to the wall every time you get him ready.  And if he's up down up down, that's not good for him at all.  They kinda need to save him from himself.  Put him out there for like 1-3 innings every 2-4 days.  But you have to avoid the temptation early in the year to get him rolling when you've got a high leverage spot.  

The safest spot in the pen if that's what they do with him is at the very back of it.  But not sure they can save him from himself in that situation.  Its all moot until he comes out of his first bullpen in AZ.

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1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

I still think one additional need is to consider packaging Suarez in a trade to a team that has a shortage of LHPs but also a lot of RHPs.

As solid as the four lefties can be, how many teams have succeeded with mostly LHPs in the rotation?

I know you've mentioned that a few times, but I don't think having 4 lefties is necessarily bad.  Especially considering that the league is banning shifts, there could be extra value in having more LHP to help neutralize LHH.  We also have some rather elite LHH in our division.

I do think the bigger issue is probably having another LHH in our own lineup, especially if Walsh struggles as he returns back from injury.  Rengifo is a switch hitter who mainly hits better as a RHH, so that lineup of ours is rather imbalanced currently, with no real help on the horizon in the minors, either.

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2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Can’t forget Murphy, with his SEC background and solid arm, albeit still needing to clean up the control issues.

I like Murphy too, but I'd like to see some significant strides in his control first.  I know he needed to also develop a more effective second pitch to complement his 99MPH+ FB - any idea how that's going?

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10 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

It's honestly true, but say it out loud and all the casuals who only know big names laugh because "everyone knows the Angels' pitching sucks". We probably have the best under the radar rotation in the majors. Outside of Ohtani, nobody even knows most of our pitchers. 

I was going to say, I’m old enough to remember when a rotation of 5 starting pitchers boasted an ERA under 4 in the was considered elite. Especially when all 5 faced a lineup of DH’s over a full season the previous season. 
 

Any one of whoever we add from Cueto, Wacha, Miley etc via FA or from within (Silseth, Canning, C-Rod, Bush) for the sixth spot could be the cherry on top. 

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2 hours ago, Warfarin said:

I like Murphy too, but I'd like to see some significant strides in his control first.  I know he needed to also develop a more effective second pitch to complement his 99MPH+ FB - any idea how that's going?

I don’t know where people are getting the idea that Murphy throws 99+ mph.

From what I recall, the Rocket City radar had him in the mid-90’s last season.

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21 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I don’t know where people are getting the idea that Murphy throws 99+ mph.

From what I recall, the Rocket City radar had him in the mid-90’s last season.

I see.  I didn't get to see him, so I relied on Fangraphs scouting report, which lists him at 95-97 and "tops out at 99."  But yeah, I guess not 99MPH+ - but still, some good velocity on the whole.

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20 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I see.  I didn't get to see him, so I relied on Fangraphs scouting report, which lists him at 95-97 and "tops out at 99."  But yeah, I guess not 99MPH+ - but still, some good velocity on the whole.

I just looked back and he was 94-95 at the end of last season.

I think in college, his velo was closer to what FanGraphs listed. So it seems that his velo dipped.

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4 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

The safest spot in the pen if that's what they do with him is at the very back of it.  But not sure they can save him from himself in that situation.  Its all moot until he comes out of his first bullpen in AZ.

Or... What if they used him as a piggy back starter. It doesn't frequently happen in the major leagues, but if we've got someone, say Suarez, who is struggling their second time through the order, we can use them both in 3-4 inning increments. 

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