mulwin444

6 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I agree, but I will always err on the side of us giving up too much because that's usually how it ends up happening.

I've posted this a bunch of times before but I'll post it again. 

A trade will go down and it will be reported. "Angels have acquired Jon Gray from Colorado. Hearing Jordyn Adams and Jose Suarez are going to Colorado in trade."

We'll be mostly ecstatic, because we didn't give up Marsh or Adell and got a good pitcher with 2 years of control. But we still lament giving up Adams because he's got such a high ceiling.

Then it comes out that there's two more players involved and we start speculating. "It's probably a couple lower level guys, or maybe a low level reliever and Matt Thaiss." 

Then we find out it's Jeremiah Jackson and Rengifo. Now Angelswin loses their shit. Eppler got taken to the cleaners, he should be fired, etc...

2 years later Lou agrees with half the board because Jackson is still stuck in low A ball and Rengifo is a .220 hitting utility guy.

I've seen this happen 3 times. It will happen again.

This is me liking this post twice 

40 minutes ago, Second Base said:

That Huston Street trade was worth it for coining Rendon alone.

Yep, anything that ultimately adds to the AW nomenclature is a win...

Looking at our recent past in regards to trading prospects for established MLB players:

Under Reagins: 

Sean Rodriguez, Matthew Sweeney, and Alex Torres for Scott Kazmir - Meh for Bleghhhhhhh.  Rodriguez has had a couple decent seasons as a utility infielder and Alex Torres was good for a couple season as a reliever but neither amounted to much.  Kazmir was decent for good for 6 starts in 2009 then completely fell apart.

Joe Saunders, Rafael Rodriguez, Patrick Corbin, and Tyler Skaggs for Dan Haren - It felt brutal then in cost even if the timing made sense and Haren only really having a solid season and a half before declining in 2012 during the playoff hunt made it a bit worse.  

Under Dipoto:

Ariel Pena, Johnny Hellweg, and Jean Segura for Zack Greinke - Pena and Hellweg didn't amount to much but Segura has since had a couple of All Star seasons for different teams since the trade.  Hurt even more that Greinke not surprisingly took the most cash a team could offer the next offseason and left after 13 decent start

Pestano for Clevinger - The one most invoked in terms of "getting owned" in a deal, this was kind of meh when it happened because Clevinger, while talented, had only made it to A+ ball and put up a 4.41 ERA 1.371 WHIP at age 23.  Obviously, it's been lopsided since then.

Sean O'Sullivan and Will Smith for Alberto Callaspo - Alberto put up 7.6 WAR in what amounted to 3 seasons with the Angels while Will Smith has emerged as a terrific reliever.  Not a terrible result on either side.

Tyler Chatwood for Chris Ianetta - As a catcher mostly known for his offense, Ianetta played well putting up 6.2 WAR in 4 seasons while Chatwood has still been searching for some consistency in his results.

Taylor Lindsey, Elliot Morris, R. J. Alvarez, Jose Rondon for Huston Street and Trevor Gott - Trade allowed us to coin the term "Rondons" for what amounts to the prospect being the equivalent of magic beans.  Four Rondons traded for Street who was part magical, decent and awful in three seasons with the Angels while said Rondons have done nothing.  Also, Gott had a good enough 2015 to allow him to be traded for someone else the next season.

Peter Bourjos and Randal Grichuk for David Freese and Fernando Salas - Despite playing 255 games over 2 seasons, it always felt like Freese was injured and he put up the quietest 3.9 WAR in memory.  Fernando Salas was mostly known for disappointing Angels' fans.  On the flip side, Bourjos never came close to matching his 4.9 WAR 2011 season and Grichuk has emerged as a essentially a 2 WAR OFer that will fill a roster spot on a sub-.500 team.  In the end, nobody got what they wanted but neither were impactful.

Jordan Walden for Tommy Hansen - Neither worked out for either team.

Under Eppler:

Chris Ellis, Sean Newcomb, and Eric Aybar for Andrelton Simmons and Jose Briceno - A little confession, I didn't like this trade at the time as it seemed we were good with Aybar at SS and really needed SP but hard to argue with the results since.  Simmons has put up a 20.2 WAR since 2016 and Newcomb is a reliever in ATL.

Trevor Gott and Michael Brady for Yunel Escobar - Gott has been mostly hit and miss since the trade but he's young enough to turn a corner at some point while Escobar was a decent fill-in despite just being an odd character in general.  Seemed like a decent overall trade then and it seemed to age well.

Grayson Long and Elvin Rodriguez for Justin Upton - Despite some mixed results from Upton since being acquired in 2017, Eppler gave up a pitcher who retired after 1 start with Detroit's AA affiliate and another who is 21 in A+ ball sporting a 3.77 ERA...not a bad price for a 4 WAR player.

Conor Lillis-White for Tommy LaStella - LaStella broke out offensively for the Angels in 2019 while Lillis-White broke out his lawn chair.

So, in the end, a majority of the Rondons we hold so dearly will likely not amount to much more than AA/AAA fodder.  While you shouldn't just give them away, there no reason not to pull the trigger when the deal makes sense in context of your team's current situation.

Tropea-NO!

17 minutes ago, ettin said:

For example if the Mets are not in contention at the deadline there may be 2-4 good starters on the block from that team alone, not to mention any other teams that might be out of the running.

I think that's definitely a possibility with either Syndegaard, Matz, and Stroman 

3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Honestly, I feel bad for the newbies that don't understand AW culture. If they don't agree that the Angels are effing awesome and Billy Eppler is the best GM in the business, they're under immediate scrutiny. Stick around long enough and you learn how to navigate it, but the lack of acceptance of anything other than an optimistic view here can be suffocating. 

I believe without significant pitching additions, the Angels are an 87-89 win team in 2020.

Easy, Captain Hyperbole...1.  I don't think they're awesome 2.  I don't think Billy is the best GM in the business 3.  Pessimists often view themselves as realists and optimists as slavish nut-swingers...and vice-versa.

Let's keep it in context, my comments are mostly about the Ringer using projected pitcher WAR to criticize the Angels' offseason pitching acquisitions.  Given that pitching WAR is problematic, and using projected pitching WAR even more so, I don't see how my comments are that incendiary.

Also, just to give you my own mindset in regards to this team and their moves, I think they are a 85-90 win team right now...you know, kinda where you put them as well.

For me, their remaining needs are a mid-rotation starter and a solid back-end reliever...they have pitching depth but it's all middle-to-bottom heavy in talent and they need to push that middle upward if they want to crack 90 wins.  

1 minute ago, SoPas Angel said:

No, it was a day game at Oakland in 2005. (I was at work and punched the monitor hanging on the wall, which I had to pay to replace.)

Good ol' Frankie...

16 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

That game where Frankie Rodriguez dropped the throw back from the catcher and the winning run scored from third.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/OAK/OAK200809170.shtml

Think it was this one.  The sting was lessened by the fact they won the division that season but, yeah, that was unforgettable.  

1 minute ago, krAbs said:

 

And, as we all know, free agent acquisition is not the only method of improving the starting pitching, we still have assets to trade, and we still have payroll room to play with for move of significance.

Considering a possible 6 man rotation, we are looking at Ohtani, Teheren, Heaney, Bundy, Canning and I'm guessing either Pena, Sandoval or Barria as the 6th option/swing man. I believe we absolutely have to acquire a mid-rotation starter at least in order to minimize the innings for both Ohtani and Canning and improve the quality of the weekly starts overall but, considering the last 4 seasons, this is the best the rotation has looked since 2015.

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

You said ass but.

I did, didn't I?  Ha (snort)

2 minutes ago, krAbs said:

Yeah, the Ringer seems to have the obviously correct take here. Like, you're running a pro MLB team, and you have two options: option 1. understand pitcher value based on a complicated and time tested sabermetric systems which account for performance and peripheral stats along with aging trends from similar players, or option 2. mulwin's gut "how did this guy look last year, and how do I feel about his injury history" system. There are problems with projection system, but they aren't gonna miss 31 times like that.

Hmm, all their numbers are available in baseball prospectus so I didn't pull this out of my ass but, sure, I used my "gut" and we should also totally ignore recent injury history and just sort by "projected 2020 pitching WAR" to sign our players because that's how big-pants wearin' GMs do it in the MLB, I reckon.  

27 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Angels fans, yourself included would've thought bringing in guys like Gibson, Gausman, Pineda, etc would've been very savvy moves. 

But since those guys aren't Angels, it's totally because they're all trash.

No...Gibson, apart from a couple decent seasons (2015 and 2018), has been pretty mediocre (4.52 ERA 1.411 WHIP 94 ERA+ in 1,000+ IP) and was not good last season (4.84 ERA 1.444 WHIP 95 ERA+).  How is committing 3 years and $28 mil better than getting Teheren (3.67 ERA 1.211 WHIP 110 ERA+ in 1,300+ IP, 3.81 ERA 1.323 WHIP 119 ERA+ in 2019) for 1/$9 mil?

Gausman wasn't good last season and ended the season as a reliever and he got the same deal as Teheren.

Pineda would have been a nice get on a one year deal but coming off a PED suspension, not mention missing big swaths of time throughout his career (all of 2012, 2013, 2018, almost all of 2014 and half of 2017), I'm guessing Eppler is looking for something more stable and predictable after 4 years of uncertainty.

Who else?

I mean, seriously, any one of these guys, apart from the relievers on the list, are capable of a decent year but how is adding Miley or Porcello or Anderson or Perez or Bailey or Roark or Hill or Gonzalez better than Teheren and Bundy at this point?  

I know we like get lost in the numbers and indulge in "what if" scenarios but "taking a chance" on guys like Graveman, Nelson, or Tyler Anderson to be healthy and productive or an unknown factor like Lindblom to pan out to something other than a 4 starter is a hell of a gamble after you gambled on Cahill continuing his 2018 season and Harvey returning to form just a year prior.  Not to mention both Teheren and Bundy are under 30 and have been relatively healthy.  

16 minutes ago, wopphil said:

I just looked at Gray's numbers again, and he is much better than I think I had realized. I don't think I would hesitate to move Marsh and others for him.

Yeah, he's not an ace, and his WHIP is a bit concerning, but I'm expecting Marsh (plus) to be the price for a top of rotation starter in his prime with 2 years left of control.  I think a pitcher would be included in COL asking price as well.  Don't know if Marsh/Sandoval would be enough...

8 minutes ago, wopphil said:

The outlook of this team would change dramatically with the addition of one more starter. A healthy David Price or Jon Gray would do wonders to improve things, and a trade like that could happen at any moment.

If we could get 2018's version of David Price, I'd be down for acquiring him but I don't think Boston would be trying to move him if that was the case.  I think he's damaged goods at this point.  I'd love to get Gray but unsure of how much of an overpay it would take.

58 minutes ago, mymerlincat said:

People are mocking you, but I agree 100%.  Nelson was a legitimate top 10 pitcher in the league in 2017, and only cost $1 million.  I would’ve easily doubled it, that’s nothing for a guy who has previously shown the ability to be a top of the rotation starter.  

I'm not mocking him, as $1 million is chump change, and, if it was 2018/2019, I'd say go for it but Eppler's entire time as GM has been dealing with guys with arm injuries further highlighted by the fact that last season only one pitcher made it to 100 innings.  At some point, you have use your resources and roster spots for reasonably healthy arms with some guarantee of return.  On one side, people are blasting the Angels for not being able to stay healthy and then, on the other side, pushing for signing guys like Alex Wood, who are talented but injury prone.  The last few offseasons we've gone into April with supposedly 10 deep rotational depth only to see them drop like flies by July to the point we are depending on guys like Oliver Drake, Troy Scribner, Parker Bridwell, Deck McGuire, Odrisamir Despaigne, John Lamb, Chris Stratton, and Dillon Peters to give us someone who might make it through 5 decent innings in order to avoid a bullpen game.  

At this point, with who is projected to be in the rotation (Ohtani, Heaney, Teheren, Bundy, Canning), the Angels need guys that can pitch above a 4 starter in quality and are healthy enough to give them 150+ IP.

22 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Dodgers sign Jimmy Nelson and Eppler whiffs on another starting pitcher that likely could've helped this team. 

Hmmm, not sure it's wise of Eppler to commit money and a roster spot to pitcher with recent shoulder and elbow issues when all he's been dealing with since he became a GM is pitchers shoulder and elbow issues.  How exactly did he "whiff" on this one?  Not finding the right fortune teller?

1 hour ago, Lou said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I agree

Death, taxes and Lou's receipts...

3 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

They're both black outfielders, they're basically the same person.

Is this...is this a "Kelvin Escobar" thing?

Garret Anderson in the minors:

23 HRs/.729 OPS in 552 games at all minor league levels

Jo Adell in the minors:

38 HRs/.870 OPS in 248 games at all minor league levels

Hmm, not getting a "Garret Anderson" vibe here

4 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I'm not talking about then, I'm talking about now. I believe we have what it takes now to make a Luhnow type deal for a top tier arm.

Likely but we have to match up.

Pirates were ready to move Cole with 2 years left of control...who'd fit that category now?

Noah Syndegaard - Free agent in 2022, he's been trending downward since his peak in 2016 due to injury.  Will cost you, at minimum, one of Marsh/Adell and Canning.

Steve Matz - Free agent in 2022, never as dominant as Syndegaard and seems like a SP closer to the back-end of the rotation as opposed to the front but won't cost you Adell.

Caleb Smith - Free agent in 2024 so more years of control but less years of success so it would be a gamble.  Depends on how many years away the Marlins think they are from competing.

Robbie Ray - Free agent in 2021 so not an exact match but price would likely be less than Syngaard/Matz and he's been pretty average the last two seasons (107 ERA+ in 2018, 103 ERA+ in 2019) but he'd be top of the rotation for us

Jon Gray - Free agent in 2022, has been good recently enough (2017, 2019) to seriously consider...will likely cost Marsh to begin with.

Mike Clevinger - Free agent 2023, will cost Adell...nuff said.

Matthew Boyd - Free agent in 2023, will likely cost Marsh plus a legit SP prospect.

That's kinda it...Gray, Syndegaard, and Matz had the same years left as Cole but I'm not sure any one of them has his "stuff".  Of everyone though, the closest might be Syndegaard if he is truly healthy.  

14 hours ago, Lou said:

Bully 

36 minutes ago, Lou said:

We got serviceable!

"Sane Planning, Sensible Tomorrow"!

6 minutes ago, ettin said:

Sure but some of that was as a starter, then he had TJS, and moved to relief, so he has switched roles. I would have thought that Mayers, who doesn't have options, would have been the first choice over Jewell who still has options. Comparatively, I think Jewell is the better choice, thus the surprise that Mayers (or Mejia) didn't go first.

Didn't he fracture his leg?  I think you probably referencing Jake Lamb...

Regardless, while AAA PCL is not the friendliest environment to develop, the Angels obviously didn't see enough to keep him around.