GA16

I think the best thing to take away here is simply that Eppler is discussing acquiring more starting pitching and he has his eyes set on upside.
This tells me he's at least aware of the needs of the team and doesn't believe the Angels are good right where they're at.

^this. He’s still working on finding a frontline arm.
Most teams will be asking for Adell still, and if not him, Marsh. Give it a few weeks. Might be able to still get someone solid for Rengifo, Suarez, plus. 

Two things working against Eppler - timing and prospects.
Cole was acquired by HOU for 4 major league ready prospects including a Starting Pitcher in Musgrove.  We didn't have that depth.
Greinke was acquired for, again, 4 prospects and HOU was pushing for a World Championship.
Say we acquired Cole in 2018 somehow, we still don't make the playoffs and lose him to the Yankees this offseason.
Greinke is only a move you make to try to win in 2019 and now Houston has 8 less prospects and two pitcher over 36 owed a combined $116 mil ($50 mil for Greinke, $66 mil for Verlander) with their next best pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery and a lot of question marks.  

A reliever who can strike out more than a batter per inning, picked up for nothing with years of control and options left...an Eppler special.  Looks like a good deal.

For me, it boils down to this...what helps the angels win a title more, the next 3 years of Clevinger or the next 7 of Adell?
 
I’m torn, but the more I think about it, the more I think Clevinger will help more. 
 
This great class of Angels superstars is ready to win now. Clevinger is a win now player who fills the Angels greatest need today. Adell is a win soon-ish player, probably, but no guaranteed, who plays a position where the Angels have Marsh waiting in the wings. 
 
We have less clarity on where the angels will be in 3-5 years, and more clarity on the next two years. Clevinger should help more during that span. 
 
Imagine if the Angels don’t go all in during the next two years and don’t win, Trout and Rendon begin to decline, and then the MLB is locked out. A labor lockout isn’t a given, but it’s not far fetched either. Let’s win now while the stars are still stars. 

Yes in 2020, Clevinger would more than likely have a bigger impact than Adell for the Angels. Beyond that, Adell could out WAR Clevinger for many years. But with the Angels in such great need of front lines pitching, Clevinger could be more valuable for the Angels than Adell for several years. Then add Marsh, who has good upside, Clevinger +Marsh >Adell. I’m talking myself into this trade. 

Totally agree.  I think people are overly discounting Clevinger bc he's not a household name and only has one 200 IP season so far.  His post-injury numbers last year were stupid good.  This skills are top 10 at worst. Add in the 3 more years of control and price that keeps Angels within luxury tax and you have the perfect fit for an ace.  He's arguably better than all but Cole and Degrom IF he puts together a full season.  I don't know how that doesn't cost at least Adell.
Plus trade value wise I can't imagine Adell's value could be any higher than right now.

I think Adell for Clevinger is a perfect trade in that I could see both the Angels and Indians saying no.
While it would hurt to move Adell, such a great home grown prospect, I would do it for Clevinger. 3 years of control of a likely top 5 SP in baseball is exactly what this team needs right now. Having Rendon in the lineup for the next 7 years and Marsh right behind Adell makes the decision easier. 
I understand why the Angels FO and the fans on the other side of would say no to the trade (I would be content if they didn't make the trade) but I think Clevinger would put the Angels over the top this year and the near future. 

I think Adell for Clevinger is a perfect trade in that I could see both the Angels and Indians saying no.
While it would hurt to move Adell, such a great home grown prospect, I would do it for Clevinger. 3 years of control of a likely top 5 SP in baseball is exactly what this team needs right now. Having Rendon in the lineup for the next 7 years and Marsh right behind Adell makes the decision easier. 
I understand why the Angels FO and the fans on the other side of would say no to the trade (I would be content if they didn't make the trade) but I think Clevinger would put the Angels over the top this year and the near future. 

just because the Angels were willing to take payroll up above 200m for Gerrit Cole, doesn't mean that's something they'd be willing to do for Ryu or anyone else.  They're already above where they've ever been and my guess is that they'll still add a bit.  
plus, when you're forced to pivot off your primary target, it doesn't mean you like any of the secondary options automatically.  
there are very rarely premier players available and we got one of them and almost got another.  
you've really got to look at where our true sweet spot might be.  over the next 5-6 years is it 2020 and 2021, because that's where adding a Ryu, Madbum or Keuchel really helps you.  But the aftermath of that is then you're stuck with back loaded money of 20+m per year to work around in 2022 and beyond when ohtani and fletcher are arb 2 and 1, buttrey is an arb 1, and guys like Canning, Sandoval, Adell and Marsh will be entering their 3 or 4th year of being in the majors.  
Granted, you don't punt the next two year but don't hurt yourself for the 3 years after that unless you know you're getting that premier/elite player.  

you can't force it if you don't have the cards to win the pot Scotty.  You can be fired up all you want but thankfully our gm is calculated and calm.  Go back to 2016 or 2017 and lay out what you would have done to make those teams good enough to compete for a championship or even better right now.  Even with the benefit of knowing what's happened, you just can't do it.  
the cycle of kicking the can down the road can only end when you're good enough to stop kicking it.  The team is good but not good enough.  The farm system is good, but not good enough.  You're nuts if you think Ryu or any pitcher of similar caliber puts the team into a different category.  

people here go apeshit over Upton's defense. can you imagine what their reaction would be watching Castellanos in the outfield?
it might be worth it

With worries about pitcher health at an all time high, I prefer to not use key position player prospects in trades to acquire them.
It’s best to find your pitchers via the draft or int’l signings, and develop your own.
Draft a college one at #10 overall in June.

I don't think Taylor Blake Ward would be the one to break any Angels news. 

I don't think Taylor Blake Ward would be the one to break any Angels news. 

I don't think Taylor Blake Ward would be the one to break any Angels news. 

Doug White had no history to look back on. Callaway inherited the 14th of 14 rated AL staff in 2012, and turned them into the 7th of 15th a year later with largely the same guys. (Masterson, Jimenez, Kazmir, Kluber, McCallister was the starting 5 in 2013, of which Masterson, Jimenez, and McCallister returned from the previous staff). They ranked 5th the next year, then 2nd, 2nd, and 1st. (ERA is the stat I used here).
Everyone he inherited improved.
 

I think it is important to keep in mind that Eppler likely knows his job is on the line this year. If he had unlimited resources from Arte, then he likely would be happy to overpay to bring in Ryu or Keuchel to help save his job. That didn't happen for one reason or another. It is reasonable to assume that either Arte refused to shell out the extra money to bring one of those guys in or Eppler cares more about the long term health of the team despite his job being at risk which is admirable.  
Would an oft injured Ryu  push this team over the top in 2020? Maybe...probably not. Would Keuchel? Even less likely. 
I know we all want to win now and we are tired of losing and having a shitty rotation but the fact is that the actual TOTR arms, that would have had a significant impact on the rotation, did not  sign here at no fault to Arte or Eppler. The secondary arms we have missed out on, while would have helped, are not going to make or break the team and the arms we have added in their place are pretty comparable. The way I look at it, Teheran will be our Keuchel and Bundy will be our Kyle Gibson. They each have very similar projections and came cheaper leaving much more flexibility. 
 I don't think it is ridiculous that so many fans are calling for Eppler's job but I do think it is irrational and I think it would be a mistake. 

I think it is important to keep in mind that Eppler likely knows his job is on the line this year. If he had unlimited resources from Arte, then he likely would be happy to overpay to bring in Ryu or Keuchel to help save his job. That didn't happen for one reason or another. It is reasonable to assume that either Arte refused to shell out the extra money to bring one of those guys in or Eppler cares more about the long term health of the team despite his job being at risk which is admirable.  
Would an oft injured Ryu  push this team over the top in 2020? Maybe...probably not. Would Keuchel? Even less likely. 
I know we all want to win now and we are tired of losing and having a shitty rotation but the fact is that the actual TOTR arms, that would have had a significant impact on the rotation, did not  sign here at no fault to Arte or Eppler. The secondary arms we have missed out on, while would have helped, are not going to make or break the team and the arms we have added in their place are pretty comparable. The way I look at it, Teheran will be our Keuchel and Bundy will be our Kyle Gibson. They each have very similar projections and came cheaper leaving much more flexibility. 
 I don't think it is ridiculous that so many fans are calling for Eppler's job but I do think it is irrational and I think it would be a mistake. 

If anything Eppler has gained leverage. The "desperate" teams gave Ryu 4 years and Cole 9 years, etc.

I think it is important to keep in mind that Eppler likely knows his job is on the line this year. If he had unlimited resources from Arte, then he likely would be happy to overpay to bring in Ryu or Keuchel to help save his job. That didn't happen for one reason or another. It is reasonable to assume that either Arte refused to shell out the extra money to bring one of those guys in or Eppler cares more about the long term health of the team despite his job being at risk which is admirable.  
Would an oft injured Ryu  push this team over the top in 2020? Maybe...probably not. Would Keuchel? Even less likely. 
I know we all want to win now and we are tired of losing and having a shitty rotation but the fact is that the actual TOTR arms, that would have had a significant impact on the rotation, did not  sign here at no fault to Arte or Eppler. The secondary arms we have missed out on, while would have helped, are not going to make or break the team and the arms we have added in their place are pretty comparable. The way I look at it, Teheran will be our Keuchel and Bundy will be our Kyle Gibson. They each have very similar projections and came cheaper leaving much more flexibility. 
 I don't think it is ridiculous that so many fans are calling for Eppler's job but I do think it is irrational and I think it would be a mistake. 

I think it is important to keep in mind that Eppler likely knows his job is on the line this year. If he had unlimited resources from Arte, then he likely would be happy to overpay to bring in Ryu or Keuchel to help save his job. That didn't happen for one reason or another. It is reasonable to assume that either Arte refused to shell out the extra money to bring one of those guys in or Eppler cares more about the long term health of the team despite his job being at risk which is admirable.  
Would an oft injured Ryu  push this team over the top in 2020? Maybe...probably not. Would Keuchel? Even less likely. 
I know we all want to win now and we are tired of losing and having a shitty rotation but the fact is that the actual TOTR arms, that would have had a significant impact on the rotation, did not  sign here at no fault to Arte or Eppler. The secondary arms we have missed out on, while would have helped, are not going to make or break the team and the arms we have added in their place are pretty comparable. The way I look at it, Teheran will be our Keuchel and Bundy will be our Kyle Gibson. They each have very similar projections and came cheaper leaving much more flexibility. 
 I don't think it is ridiculous that so many fans are calling for Eppler's job but I do think it is irrational and I think it would be a mistake. 

As far as Keuchel.  Sure he would have been nice to have.  But it is a significant contract for a guy who really doesn’t move the needle that much for us.  All Angels fans need to understand that more then anything, the Angels need a lot more from the guys they had coming into this offseason.  Regardless of who they brought in.  Does Keuchel help ? Absolutely.  If Heaney sucks and Canning steps back or doesn’t step forward.  I mean how much of a difference does Keuchel make.  Realistically, big picture ? Not that huge a difference imo.  The thing that killed us last year.  More then not having top flight pitchers in terms of ability.  Was the lack of innings.   I think that’s been addressed to substantial degree (with luck) and we’ll need our guys to step up.  That will make a huge difference.  Ryu I think is higher risk then Keuchel but actually is more of a fit because he’s more that top flight guy that we really lack multiples of.  We’ll see if we pull him down.  Maybe the door to a trade opens up again.  And like I said in another thread.  It’s not the end of the world if we save our bullets for a better pitcher at the deadline or even (unfortunately) next offseaon.  
 
make no mistake tho, the Angels are absolutely much better today then they were at the end of the 2019 season.  I’m hopeful for more this offseason, but if not I’m pumped for this 2020 Angels team. 

shh! you're disrupting the narrative.

I know the "quality start" stat is considered to be dubious at best, but it's important to see the overall picture.
The Angels, as a team, had just 22 quality starts in 2019. That's 18 fewer than the next closest team, and 24 fewer than the league average. That's just absolutely hilarious. 
Let's look at the total number of quality starts by the Angels' two pitching acquisitions this winter:
Bundy: 10
Teheran: 15
So those two pitchers had MORE quality starts than our entire rotation in 2019. If we assume the same production from our starters and Bundy/Teheran, we're up to 47 quality starts. That's not great, but it's certainly a big step in the right direction.
Now if we add Keuchel, who had 12 quality starts last year (in a shortened season, mind you), that brings our total up to 59. That would have been tied for 5th in the AL. And again, this is assuming we have the same awful performance from our rotation, and Ohtani adds 0 QS and Keuchel doesn't add any more QS.
Now, is there a correlation between number of Quality Starts and ERA? Well, at least for 2019, yes.
Outside of Tampa Bay, the top 4 teams in QS finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th in ERA, respectively. The 5th team, Boston, finished 7th.
So what am I saying here? Basically, if we add Keuchel, we have an above average rotation that should be near the top of the league in quality starts, and possibly in the top 5-6 in ERA.
Lets do this, turds.