Hubs

You have the worst trade ideas on the board. Congrats!
 

I assume you mean guys with $175M contracts or greater, right? There are 40 contracts that exceeded $175M. Two players had signed two contracts greater than that value, Strasburg and A-Rod. I think their initial contracts were good, but then when they opted out and resigned, I think the second one for Strasburg is a bust and A-rod, well, he was productive but also got suspended..
I've listed them below from Cot's and Bolded the ones that I think were good. I did the strike through for those that are too early to tell. and Italicized those who I think were busts.
My score is 15 good, 7 outright busts, 6 guys somewhere in the middle and 12 too early to tell.
Total Value
The most lucrative contracts in baseball history, by total value:
1. Mike Trout, $426,500,000 (2019-30) 
2. Mookie Betts, $365,000,000 (2021-32)
3. Aaron Judge, $360,000,000 (2023-31)
4. Francisco Lindor, $341,000,000 (2022-31)
5. Fernando Tatis, $340,000,000 (2021-34)
6. Bryce Harper, $330,000,000 (2019-31)
7. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27)
8. Corey Seager, $325,000,000 (2022-31)
9. Gerrit Cole, $324,000,000 (2020-28)
10. Manny Machado, $300,000,000 (2019-28)
… Trea Turner, $300,000,000 (2023-33)
12. Xander Bogaerts, $280,000,000 (2023-33)
13. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)
14. Nolan Arenado, $260,000,000 (2019-26)
15. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)
16. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23)
17. Stephen Strasburg, $245,000,000 (2020-26)
… Anthony Rendon, $245,000,000 (2020-26)
19. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21)
… Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23)
21. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23)
22. David Price, $217,000,000 (2016-22)
23. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20)
… Christian Yelich, $215,000,000 (2020-28)
25. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20)
26. Austin Riley, $212,000,000 (2023-32)
27. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21) 
… Julio Rodriguez, $209,300,000 (2023-34) 
29. Zack Greinke, $206,500,000 (2016-21)
30. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10)
31. Jacob deGrom, $185,000,000 (2023-27)
32. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18)
. . . Jason Heyward, $184,000,000 (2016-23)
34. Wander Franco, $182,000,000 (2022-32)
. . . Kris Bryant, $182,000,000 (2022-28)
36. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16)
. . . Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19)
38. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19)
. . . Stephen Strasburg, $175,000,000 (2017-23)
. . . Marcus Semien, $175,000,000 (2022-28)
 

Great job guys. I do wonder why Kyren Paris is thought of so highly and Jackson so low. 
They did significantly improve their pitching under Minassian. But they need to start hitting on some higher end hitting prospects.
The lineup at AAA for 2023 isn't looking that great...even with a fair amount of the great AA Rocket City team moving up.
 

I assume you mean guys with $175M contracts or greater, right? There are 40 contracts that exceeded $175M. Two players had signed two contracts greater than that value, Strasburg and A-Rod. I think their initial contracts were good, but then when they opted out and resigned, I think the second one for Strasburg is a bust and A-rod, well, he was productive but also got suspended..
I've listed them below from Cot's and Bolded the ones that I think were good. I did the strike through for those that are too early to tell. and Italicized those who I think were busts.
My score is 15 good, 7 outright busts, 6 guys somewhere in the middle and 12 too early to tell.
Total Value
The most lucrative contracts in baseball history, by total value:
1. Mike Trout, $426,500,000 (2019-30) 
2. Mookie Betts, $365,000,000 (2021-32)
3. Aaron Judge, $360,000,000 (2023-31)
4. Francisco Lindor, $341,000,000 (2022-31)
5. Fernando Tatis, $340,000,000 (2021-34)
6. Bryce Harper, $330,000,000 (2019-31)
7. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27)
8. Corey Seager, $325,000,000 (2022-31)
9. Gerrit Cole, $324,000,000 (2020-28)
10. Manny Machado, $300,000,000 (2019-28)
… Trea Turner, $300,000,000 (2023-33)
12. Xander Bogaerts, $280,000,000 (2023-33)
13. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)
14. Nolan Arenado, $260,000,000 (2019-26)
15. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)
16. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23)
17. Stephen Strasburg, $245,000,000 (2020-26)
… Anthony Rendon, $245,000,000 (2020-26)
19. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21)
… Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23)
21. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23)
22. David Price, $217,000,000 (2016-22)
23. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20)
… Christian Yelich, $215,000,000 (2020-28)
25. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20)
26. Austin Riley, $212,000,000 (2023-32)
27. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21) 
… Julio Rodriguez, $209,300,000 (2023-34) 
29. Zack Greinke, $206,500,000 (2016-21)
30. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10)
31. Jacob deGrom, $185,000,000 (2023-27)
32. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18)
. . . Jason Heyward, $184,000,000 (2016-23)
34. Wander Franco, $182,000,000 (2022-32)
. . . Kris Bryant, $182,000,000 (2022-28)
36. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16)
. . . Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19)
38. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19)
. . . Stephen Strasburg, $175,000,000 (2017-23)
. . . Marcus Semien, $175,000,000 (2022-28)
 

Yes. His deal from 2016-2023 is a huge bust, his triple crown came in what 2012 or 2013?
It might be the worst contract in all of baseball history, honestly. 
He had 5.1 bWAR the first year, then -0.9, 0.2, 0.0, 0.1, -0.5, -1.0. in the six since.
So for $248M, they got 3.1 WAR with one year left over 8 years.
Pujols in his 9 1/4 seasons with us managed 12.8.
Fielder managed 7 WAR in two years with Detroit, and then in parts of three seasons with Texas managed 0.1.
 

You have the worst trade ideas on the board. Congrats!
 

I think since he was rehabbing when he got suspended, they let him count every padres game as being suspended.
They didn't allow Rendon to serve his on game field suspension until he was healthy though so who knows why that is. 

While I think Adames is valued too highly, by BTV he was the 4th best SS by defensive WAR on fangraphs, 6th overall. 
Swanson was first, Edman (STL) second, Lindor (NYM) third, Adames fourth, and Mateo fifth.
Offensively he's 10th, behind Turner, Bogaerts, Lindor, Correa, Bichette, Swanson, Seager, Edman, and somehow Elvis Andrus.
Don't know where those 17 HR came from for Andrus.
Anyway..I'd consider Adames if the price was right, but otherwise, I just want them to sign Swanson. 

i actually think you could get a better player for a similar package.

He was suspended this year after missing a bunch of time due to injury. Tatis has twenty games left to serve.

True, but I don't think it costs O' Hoppe for Adames. 
Adames is not worth as much as BTV says he is, I know I'm stuck on the OBP but a .298 OBP Is not an everyday player. That's why I don't like the idea of giving Rengifo every day AB's either. 
 

Adames has been discussed significantly in this thread, but I have a new trade proposal idea when I saw this https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/brewers-rumors-catcher-trade-free-agency.html 
means there could be a fit.
But first off, BTV has Adames value too high.
He's a valuable commodity and did have a 4+ WAR. But a 40 point value is excessive for a guy with a sub .300 OBP and only a 111 OPS+ 
I get that he's valuable. But 40 points is the value they give Sandoval. They also rate Rengifo at 0.5. which although I think this board overrates him, he's an in demand young player. He's probably worth closer to say 12 points on their scale.
Then they have Stassi at a -7.8 points. Yes he struggled, but he didn't struggle in 2021. The contract he got isn't even a lot, in comparison to other catchers. And quality catching talent is a hard to come by right now.
But Stassi, Suarez, Rengifo and a prospect like Aron Vera plus a couple million say 2.5 a year to pay down Stassi's deal should be a very good package for Adames. It's probably overpaying to be honest. BTV vetoes it but they rate Adames too high and Rengifo too low. Stassi is a little harsh.
Thaiss and O'Hoppe isn't enough experience behind the dish, but veteran backups like Barnhart are available in free agency.
Tell me you wouldn't do this deal.
 

Excellent breakdown, and yes thats exactly what you commit to, and it lease very few holes over that time.
Worst case, you need another corner OF or 1B, those generally arent hard spots to fill. 
The reality is that this is the path ownership put us on, if someone has another option for how to make this team relevant this year, im all ears. 

In regards to @Stradling and @floplag's discussion above... 
There are two other teams with smaller markets who have this same scenario ($175 for 8 guys) and the Mets and Dodgers have in recent seasons done this as well.
Phillies have 8 guys making over $16M for 2023, with Aaron Nola at $16 and the only 2023-2024 FA. Taijuan Walker is at $18,  Schwarber and Castellanos are at $20 each, Realmuto is at 23.875, Wheeler is at $24.5 and Turner is at $27.5 with Harper at $27.5 too.
$177.375 for 8 guys.
Padres have a little more flexibility as they only have 6 guys making more than $16, Because Tatis is not making any serious money until $2025, it was $341 over 14 covering his arbitration years, so he's only paid $7.7 M in 2023. They also have some free agents coming up in 2023-2024.
Blake Snell is at $16.6, Yu Darvish is at $19, Musgrove is at $20, Juan Soto is at $23.5, Bogaerts is at $25.5 and Machado is at $30. They have Hader at $12.75 and three guys making $10M.
That's 177.3 for 10 guys... but still
In the scenario above, Angels will have presumably Ohtani at $45? Trout at $35.5, Rendon at $35, a SS in the $22-$32 range, then Anderson at $13, which is 5 guys making around $155.5. They have only Stassi, Estevez and Fletcher under contract for the 2024 season, which would be 8 contracts at $175 which is what Stradling said. 
I'd imagine you add the arbitration estimates for as many as 11 guys (6 A2 and up to 5 A1, my estimates put that at like 40-45M if players do well in 2023.... which they want) , and adding no more significant free agents, letting Renfroe, Urshela, Loup and Tepera walk, and you'd still be topping $220M in 2024...before adding another guy. I'd expect a few non-tenders but you're still looking at say 17 guys (one I don't think will reach the arbitration threshold as projected and one will be gone. So you'd have 9 spots to fill for around $10M.... which is fine if it's club guys, but they would likely be over in 2024 as well.
Now in 2025, Estevez, Fletcher, Stassi all come off, and so you'd be able to add a few names...but the arb class will get more expensive. 
Stradling is right, they'd likely commit to paying the tax minimum through 2025, and likely through 2026, but might be able to squeeze under in 26.
But the only positions that wouldn't be basically set for 3-4 years is one of the corner OF spots, and 1st base if Walsh doesn't come back to form. The rotation would have 5 guys locked in. 
Of course, trading some salary can help, but it is doable, they'd just be paying a tax for the rest of the Rendon contract.
If they had a huge group of depth position wise in AAA and AA it would be okay to do this. Neto and O'Hoppe are the only guys I see likely being starters, but it would all be young guys for depth in the lineup and the pen.
 
 
 
 

Wrong thread.  Start your own.   Hopefully on a different forum.

Ohtani is not going to continue to pitch and hit for the rest of his career. If you sign him for 10 years, he will probably become either a full time batter or pitcher and in like 3 years or so. Right now, he is just a DH as a hitter so you don't pay a DH 500 million. If he decides to just pitch, again, he is not worth 500 million. Maybe Ohtani does continue to be 2 way player at a high level for the next 8-10 years but it's never been done before so I highly doubt it happens. I am not sure how long he can continue to be this good doing 2 things.

I think this means that Epstein is part of the new ownership group.  😉

Middling?
I don't know which Canning you were watching but this isn't him at all. Maybe in 2019, as a rookie, he had a few games like this, but still pitched 90+ innings with a 4.58 ERA in 18 starts...in 2020 he had a good year, and in 2021 he was obviously hurt. 
9 of his starts he gave up 3 or more runs.  4 starts he gave up 2, 3 he gave up 1, and 2 he had shut outs.
Ausmus had a couple quick hooks, but overall he usually went more than 5, having 12 starts where he pitched 5 or more, and in the 6 he didn't he pitched at least 4 innings 3 times. 
Pretty respectable rookie performance.
In 2020 he had a really good year in the shortened season, throwing a 3.99 ERA in 56.1 innings over 11 starts.
6 of his games he gave up 3 or more runs, and unlike the year previous, he didn't have any starts where he gave up more than 4. He had 5 starts where he allowed 1 ER. He didn't pitch long into games but that was Maddon's MO as they had a weird schedule.  Still averages 5 again.
In 2021 he was up and down from the minors, due to being hurt and not telling anyone, likely. 9 of his 14 starts were 5 innings or more, the other 5 he got knocked around a bit. Averaged 4.1 IP per start, and had 5.60 ERA. I'm blaming the injury.
 
In the three seasons he pitched, I see only a few games which fit the MO and I think you need to give him the benefit of the doubt and keep him in the rotation at least in AAA if not the majors. 
 
 

Rengfio in his breakout year had a .294 OBP. I would say he is perfectly fine to be given the "Starting job" But I also think Fletcher and he can platoon nicely. Signing a SS, like Swanson gives them the opportunity to have a platoon (with Urshela even) at 2nd ... and 1st base.

I was a yes, then I didn't hear anything for months, so I was a no. And now they're saying they're trying, so I am back to a yes. New Owner may be actually in May or June, but it will be close.
 

Velazquez's defense was good but not good enough to make up for that black hole in the line up he created. Keeping him at SS does not help the team improve 

I doubt he's actually available.
The Rays traded him only because they had a better player coming at SS. 
He didn't even hit that well with a .238 BA and a .298 OBP. Defensively he's better than Rengifo, but his value is much higher. He's had more productive years at the plate in 2021, and 2020. He seems to have sold out for power. 
I know his WAR is quite good, but overall, I'm wary of getting guys with OBP south of .315. That's why I'm not as high on Rengifo or Renfroe.
When he was traded to the Brewers, it was for Drew Rasmussen and a RHRP Feyereisen. This is like Patrick Sandoval and Jimmy Herget. Now his value isn't as high with less years of control, but, I'd think he still will command a solid return, too much for my liking.
BTV has him at a median value at 41.3 points. That's basically Sandoval, Ward, or Detmers. NO NO and NO.
The BTV site is really down on some guys I would not think are that far down. Rengifo for instance is rated at 0.5 and they laughingly have Trout at 14.
Sorry, those numbers are very very wrong, even accounting for contract length. 
I don't think Adames is as valuable as they say and I dont think Rengifo is valued at nearly zero.
But I would think minimum, it's Suarez and say Bush, Rengifo and Adell or Adams. (This trade doesn't work on their simulator, but I'm assigning Rengifo a value in the high teens, and dropping Adames to closer to 32-35. Then it does. (17.5 for Rengifo, 5.1 for Bush, Suarez 13, and Adams or Adell around 1.0.)
That's too much to give up.
Ahmed Rosario has much less value (4.7!) and is a similar player to Adames, if not as highly rated on fangraphs WAR... and would require a much smaller investment. Similar guys would be Nico Hoerner from the Cubs or say Torres from the Yankees. 
I'd just sign Dansby Swanson. 

I doubt he's actually available.
The Rays traded him only because they had a better player coming at SS. 
He didn't even hit that well with a .238 BA and a .298 OBP. Defensively he's better than Rengifo, but his value is much higher. He's had more productive years at the plate in 2021, and 2020. He seems to have sold out for power. 
I know his WAR is quite good, but overall, I'm wary of getting guys with OBP south of .315. That's why I'm not as high on Rengifo or Renfroe.
When he was traded to the Brewers, it was for Drew Rasmussen and a RHRP Feyereisen. This is like Patrick Sandoval and Jimmy Herget. Now his value isn't as high with less years of control, but, I'd think he still will command a solid return, too much for my liking.
BTV has him at a median value at 41.3 points. That's basically Sandoval, Ward, or Detmers. NO NO and NO.
The BTV site is really down on some guys I would not think are that far down. Rengifo for instance is rated at 0.5 and they laughingly have Trout at 14.
Sorry, those numbers are very very wrong, even accounting for contract length. 
I don't think Adames is as valuable as they say and I dont think Rengifo is valued at nearly zero.
But I would think minimum, it's Suarez and say Bush, Rengifo and Adell or Adams. (This trade doesn't work on their simulator, but I'm assigning Rengifo a value in the high teens, and dropping Adames to closer to 32-35. Then it does. (17.5 for Rengifo, 5.1 for Bush, Suarez 13, and Adams or Adell around 1.0.)
That's too much to give up.
Ahmed Rosario has much less value (4.7!) and is a similar player to Adames, if not as highly rated on fangraphs WAR... and would require a much smaller investment. Similar guys would be Nico Hoerner from the Cubs or say Torres from the Yankees. 
I'd just sign Dansby Swanson. 

I doubt he's actually available.
The Rays traded him only because they had a better player coming at SS. 
He didn't even hit that well with a .238 BA and a .298 OBP. Defensively he's better than Rengifo, but his value is much higher. He's had more productive years at the plate in 2021, and 2020. He seems to have sold out for power. 
I know his WAR is quite good, but overall, I'm wary of getting guys with OBP south of .315. That's why I'm not as high on Rengifo or Renfroe.
When he was traded to the Brewers, it was for Drew Rasmussen and a RHRP Feyereisen. This is like Patrick Sandoval and Jimmy Herget. Now his value isn't as high with less years of control, but, I'd think he still will command a solid return, too much for my liking.
BTV has him at a median value at 41.3 points. That's basically Sandoval, Ward, or Detmers. NO NO and NO.
The BTV site is really down on some guys I would not think are that far down. Rengifo for instance is rated at 0.5 and they laughingly have Trout at 14.
Sorry, those numbers are very very wrong, even accounting for contract length. 
I don't think Adames is as valuable as they say and I dont think Rengifo is valued at nearly zero.
But I would think minimum, it's Suarez and say Bush, Rengifo and Adell or Adams. (This trade doesn't work on their simulator, but I'm assigning Rengifo a value in the high teens, and dropping Adames to closer to 32-35. Then it does. (17.5 for Rengifo, 5.1 for Bush, Suarez 13, and Adams or Adell around 1.0.)
That's too much to give up.
Ahmed Rosario has much less value (4.7!) and is a similar player to Adames, if not as highly rated on fangraphs WAR... and would require a much smaller investment. Similar guys would be Nico Hoerner from the Cubs or say Torres from the Yankees. 
I'd just sign Dansby Swanson. 

Over time you’ve become an overly pessimistic fan.