This story gets more bizarro world every day. There cannot be a three year period where Ohtani did not have a conversation with his tax accountant about where his money was going. Just too much bullshit in these stories.
I'm teetering. He was really good in 2020, but mediocre since, and has only played in 103 of 225 games in 2021-22. So if he's not yet a bust, he's on the verge.
In terms of WAR value, he's accrued 3.7 WAR so far as an Angel and been paid about $52M. That's about $14M/Win - which is significantly above the $8-9M/Win expected via free agency.
Or to break it down:
2020: 2.5 WAR, $10M
2021: 0.2 WAR, $28M
2022: 1.0 WAR, ~$14M so far
Meaning, he was well worth the money in 2020, a total waste in 2021, and bad--but not terrible--value in 2022.
Compare that to Upton, Pujols, and Hamilton:
Rendon: 3.7 WAR for $52M = $14M per Win
Upton: 2.8 WAR for $96M = $34.3M per Win
Pujols: 5.3 WAR for $232M = $43.8M per Win
Hamilton: 2.4 WAR for $107.5M = $44.8M per Win
So he's still far from being the monumental busts that those three guys were.
But we also should think in terms of not just $/WIn, but the total wasted over the value received. For instance, while Hamilton produced a slightly worse $/Win than Pujols, if we say that every Win is "worth" $8M or so, then he earned about $19M, with about $88M wasted. Pujols, on the the other hand, earned about $42M and wasted about $190M. Upton is more like $22M earned, $74M wasted.
For Rendon, he's earned about $30M so far, and thus wasted about $22M, so at least the first number is still higher than the latter.
Consider that Rendon is almost exactly one-third of the way through his 7-year contract. He's still owed about $174M, so if he continues at his current pace of 1 Win per $14M, he'll have accrued about 16 WAR for $230M, earning about $128M, with $102M excess/wasted. Meaning, still not close to Pujols levels - but a bit worse than Hamilton and Upton.
But I still think he's capable of much more. The weird thing about him is that every time i see him bat, he seems to hit the ball hard. And certainly, he seems to have been rather unlucky the last two years with a .267 and .252 BABIP, compared to a career BABIP of .309.
The question is his health. If he can stay healthy and get in a groove, he's still capable of a 4-5 WAR season, I think. If not, than we'll probably see seasons ranging anywhere from 0-4 WAR from here on out, which is still better than Pujols his last five years.
Still have a few more items to add to one of the shelves, including that Ohtani bobblehead coming soon.
Thinking about getting this for the other corner in my office.
Also, thanks to @Jeff Fletcher for the bobbleheads. I wish I kept all the ones I had over the years but I gave most of them away because I had no room for them at the old house in WA.
I think AA is more varied, and AAA more consistent. Top prospects tend to hang out in AA longer than in AAA - and are often called directly to the majors from AA, while AAA is filled with "extended bench" players, minor league journeymen, etc.
So maybe the average level of player is better in AAA, but you'll see more talented players in AA. IMO.
Ward is just absolutely on fire, and what's neat about it is it's occurring in a year in which offense is down all around due to a deadened ball. What an incredible breakout year.
Goodness, I was at that June 14th game! Sutton was going for his 300th win but would be denied as he was out of the game when the Angels scored the winning run. My Dad bought tickets for the family and we were all there to watch history, but it didn't happen. He won his 300th on his next start.
My first, and only, Angels home games were June 14 and 15, 1986 against the Royals. I loved that team. I remember Wally Joyner hit a home run in that Saturday game and Halos won 6-5. Looking up the box score on BR tells me Don Sutton pitched 6+ innings and Doug DeCinces also homered. The Angels lost the Sunday game 6-5 and all I remember from that game is Dan Quisenberry coming in to close the game for the Royals. I don't know how many hours I spent in the backyard imitating his funky sidearm delivery. Great memories!
My first, and only, Angels home games were June 14 and 15, 1986 against the Royals. I loved that team. I remember Wally Joyner hit a home run in that Saturday game and Halos won 6-5. Looking up the box score on BR tells me Don Sutton pitched 6+ innings and Doug DeCinces also homered. The Angels lost the Sunday game 6-5 and all I remember from that game is Dan Quisenberry coming in to close the game for the Royals. I don't know how many hours I spent in the backyard imitating his funky sidearm delivery. Great memories!
My first, and only, Angels home games were June 14 and 15, 1986 against the Royals. I loved that team. I remember Wally Joyner hit a home run in that Saturday game and Halos won 6-5. Looking up the box score on BR tells me Don Sutton pitched 6+ innings and Doug DeCinces also homered. The Angels lost the Sunday game 6-5 and all I remember from that game is Dan Quisenberry coming in to close the game for the Royals. I don't know how many hours I spent in the backyard imitating his funky sidearm delivery. Great memories!
My first, and only, Angels home games were June 14 and 15, 1986 against the Royals. I loved that team. I remember Wally Joyner hit a home run in that Saturday game and Halos won 6-5. Looking up the box score on BR tells me Don Sutton pitched 6+ innings and Doug DeCinces also homered. The Angels lost the Sunday game 6-5 and all I remember from that game is Dan Quisenberry coming in to close the game for the Royals. I don't know how many hours I spent in the backyard imitating his funky sidearm delivery. Great memories!
My first, and only, Angels home games were June 14 and 15, 1986 against the Royals. I loved that team. I remember Wally Joyner hit a home run in that Saturday game and Halos won 6-5. Looking up the box score on BR tells me Don Sutton pitched 6+ innings and Doug DeCinces also homered. The Angels lost the Sunday game 6-5 and all I remember from that game is Dan Quisenberry coming in to close the game for the Royals. I don't know how many hours I spent in the backyard imitating his funky sidearm delivery. Great memories!
Part One: The Case of Jo Adell (and the Ghost of Brandon Wood)
Many Angels fans are understandably concerned by what they see of Jo Adell on the baseball field. He looks lost at the plate and clueless in the outfield - at least in the very early season so far. But there are a few reasons why such concerns are probably overblown:
He looked much better in 2021 than in 2020.
He looked very good in Spring Training, seemingly building on his positive trajectory of development.
It is quite early - and that is an understatement.
He's young - just 23 yesterday - which is younger than a lot of great players were when they got their first taste of the majors.
As Angels fans, we tend to have a skewed outlook on prospects because of recent history: We have, on one hand, Mike Trout, who is not only one of the greatest baseball players in history, but after a short period of adjustment in his first taste of the big leagues in 2011 in his age 19 season, was an insta-star in 2012, his 10.1 fWAR that season being the best ever by a rookie.
On the other hand, we have Brandon Wood, who after a breakout year in A+ ball in 2005 at age 20, in which he hit .321/.371/.667 with 43 HR and became one of the top prospects in baseball (#3 according to Baseball America), saw his performance decline year to year in the minors, and then totally crashed in his first real chance in the majors, when he hit .146/.174/.208 with a -1.7 WAR in 81 games for the Angels in 2010. He never adjusted, was let go by the Angels and was out of baseball a few years later.
Meaning, our tendency as Angels fans is to subconsciously think that if a prospect isn't Mike Trout, then he's Brandon Wood - when 99.9% of prospects of any team are somewhere in-between, no matter how talented.
Thus, with regards to Jo Adell, two extreme views emerge:
He's a bust or
Everything's fine and he'll become a star
I would suggest that both are wrong, and that a more reasonable view is something like this:
There are legitimate concerns and his development will likely be slower than hoped for, but he should turn into at least a good major league regular, possibly a star.
It is clear that he isn't Mike Trout, although no reasonable person every thought he would be. And it is possible that he's Brandon Wood, although that is very unlikely. He's almost certainly going to be somewhere in-between, and also somewhere within the range of "solid player to "star." None of us know where that will be.
Part Two: A Variety of Developmental Patterns
Let's take a detour into the topic of player development, as a way to contextualize what we've seen from Joe Adell so far.
How do baseball players develop? In particular, talented ones with star potential? It is tempting to think that it is generally step by step, getting better year to year, and then reaching a peak level, plateauing there for awhile, and then re-tracing steps downward into gradual decline.
But it isn't so linear, nor is there any single path or pattern that applies to all, or even most players, beyond: "Players get better, peak, then decline." How, and in what pattern, varies greatly.
Some players start out fully formed, like Aphrodite emerging from the ocean; Mike Trout is an example we all know and love. He's changed as a player, but his peak started immediately, with his rookie season. In fact, according to fWAR, his two first seasons were also his best (10.1, 10.2 WAR), although it is worth noting that Baseball Reference has 2012 and '16 as his two best years (10.5 WAR each). Furthermore, given the imperfect nature of WAR, as well as natural fluctuation, it is reasonable to think that his peak never ended, or at least didn't through his last full season (2019).
Trout did change as a player, generally swapping out stolen bases and defense for better overall hitting, with 2017 seeing a step up offensively (again, it is hard to assess where Trout is at now, due to the nature of the last two seasons). But he's been remarkably consistent in terms of overall value, from 2012 on.
But let's take a look at a few other players, to provide examples of different patterns of development.
Jose Ramirez
When you think of the best players of the recent era, in particular from 2017 on, probably the first players that come to mind are Mike Trout and then, after a pause to revel in the glory of the Greatest Angel Ever, Mookie Betts. You might also think of players with superstar seasons but with less consistency, like Bryce Harper or Christian Yelich, or recent young superstars like Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna, Fernando Tatis, and Vlad Guerrero Jr. But from 2017 on, the third highest WAR total belongs to--you guessed it--Jose Ramirez.
Ramirez's first 180 games in the majors were rather un-noteworthy. He broke-out in 2016 at age 23 with a 4.7 WAR season, then again the following year with a 6.5 season and, since then, has been one of the best players in baseball. Or to put that in terms of sections:
2013-15 (age 20-22): 180 games, 635 PA, .239/.298/.346, 78 wRC+, 1.7 WAR
2016 (age 23): 152 games, 612 PA, .312/.363/.462, 119 wRC+, 4.7 WAR
2017 (age 24-29: 649 games, 2779 PA, .280/.365/.547, 139 wRC+, 28.1 WAR (average of 6.5 per 150 games played)
The relevant point being, Ramirez played his first full season's worth of time at a mediocre (if passable) level, then became a star, then a superstar.
Michael Brantley
As I mentioned in another thread, Brantley had a -1.1 WAR through his first 100 games (age 22-23), then was mediocre to average for his next 414 games (averaging 1.9 WAR for his age 24-26 seasons), then had his breakout and best season at age 27 (6.5 WAR) and has been a consistently good player since (averaging 3.4 WAR per 150 games played). Meaning, Brantley didn't become a good player until he was 27, and has maintained a nice plateau level into his mid-30s.
Aaron Judge
Judge didn't even reach the majors until he was 24, struggled in 27 games, and then had one of the best rookie seasons of all time in 2017 at age 25, hitting .284/.422/.627 with 52 HR and 8.3 WAR. He hasn't repeated that performance, perhaps partially due to nagging injuries, but has stabilized as a 5ish WAR, 140+ wRC player, his 154 wRC+ since 2017 the third best in baseball - one of the best hitters in baseball.
Andrew McCutchen
Seemingly forgotten about these days due to decline, McCutchen was, for a few years, the Mookie Betts of the National League. He started his career with two good 3.4 WAR seasons at age 22-23, jumped to 5.4 and stardom at age 24 and was the best player in the NL from 2011-15 with 34.2 WAR (just edging out Buster Posey at 33.3), averaging 6.6 WAR per 150 games.
McCutchen is also a cautionary tale in decline, because he precipitously fell from 6.0 WAR in 2015 to 1.0 WAR in 2016, still only 29 years old. He did jump back up to 3.7 WAR in 2017 at age 30, but that was his best year from 2016 on. From 2020-21 he had 1.0 WAR, averaging 0.7 per 150 games played.
Josh Donaldson
Another brief competitor for best player in the game during Trout's early years was Josh Donaldson, who got his first cup in 2010 at age 24, didn't play in 2011 and then played half a season 2012 at age 26, with 1.2 WAR in 75 games. Meaning, going into his age 27 season, Donaldson had all of 0.9 WAR to his name. Then he broke out in a big way in 2013 with 7.3 WAR and, from 2013-17, his 34.4 WAR was second only to Trout (although a distant second, with Trout at 44.2 WAR during that span).
Donaldson struggled with injuries in 2018, then bounced back to close-to-peak form in 2019 with a 4.9 WAR season, and has been solid since, but more of an average regular (3.1 WAR in 163 games played in 2020-21).
Jose Batista
Batista might get top honors for "Where the heck did that come from?" From 2004-09, his age 23-28 seasons, Batista hit .238/.329/.400 with a 91 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR in 575 major league games, playing for five different teams. Even more interesting is that there was no sign of improvement: After getting regular playing time in 2006, his SLG ranged from .405 to .420, his OBP from .313 to .349. He was essentially the same player: a replacement level player with a mediocre bat.
But then, in 2010 at age 29, he hit .260/.378/.617 with 54 HR, with a 165 wRC+ and 6.5 WAR. 2011 was even better: a few less HR (still 43) but a 180 wRC+ and 8.1 WAR due to a .447 OBP. He was never quite that good again, but remained a very good hitter for half a decade more, with a 140 wRC+ and 20.1 WAR from 2012-16, before falling off in his last two seasons.
Now one could be suspicious of such a significant improvement, especially at age 28 to 29, but Batista still provides us with an example of a guy who when from being a replacement player through his age 28 season, then a star from age 29-34.
Conclusion (and Some Speculation)
I could go on - with any number of variations. The point being, again, that players develop differently, both in terms of when they peak, how long it takes them to get to their peak, and what sort of pattern they follow.
None of this means that Adell will be a star. But it does mean that, at just 23 years old yesterday and--more importantly--only 75 major league games to his name--he isn't done cooking.
To wrap-up, allow me to speculate a bit - or at least offer a few different possible scenarios for Adell.
1. He's a Bust. It could happen. A combination of his struggles setting up permanent camp in his head and real deficiencies in his game could lead to a scenario where he's given plenty of chances over the next few years, but never earns a full-time job, and never becomes anything more than a talented guy who occasionally hits a bomb and is out of the majors well before his 30th birthday. A variation on this worst-case-scenario is that he is traded by the Angels, and struggles elsewhere. I'd say the chances of this scenario occurring are below 10% - still possible, but unlikely. At least at this point.
2. He's solid, but not a star. In this scenario, he does settle into being a useful player, even a solid regular, but with big deficiencies: maybe he never becomes more than a barely adequate defender and/or never quite holds his own against breaking pitches. In this scenario, he's good enough to hold a regular gig, but not good enough to block younger, better players, so spends the next half decade as an Angel, playing anywhere between 100-140 games a year, maybe hitting something like .240/.750 with 25 HR and sub-par defense, about 2 WAR per year, plus or minus. Chances: 20-40%.
3. Things come together and he's a good regular/borderline star. It takes another year or two, but Adell's talent translates to baseball skills. But he's not a perfect player. His defense is adequate, but not very good. He has holes in his plate approach, but still makes decent contact, draws a few walks, and hits a bunch of HR, perhaps feasting on mistakes and lesser pitchers. Maybe something like .250/.850 with 30+ HR and 3-5 WAR in a peak year. Chances 30-50%.
4. He's a star. The best-case-scenario is that he not only actualizes his talent, but addresses his deficiencies. He learns to better read the ball in the outfield, utilizing his speed and harnessing his arm strength. He learns better pitch recognition and becomes more disciplined at the plate. He isn't just a good player, but a great one - at least in his best seasons. Something like .280+/.900+ with 35+ HR and 5+ WAR in a peak year. Chances: about 10%.
All of the above is arbitrary, and covers a wide enough range that it isn't really a fearless prediction. But that's kind of the point: there are still a range of outcomes, and it is still very likely that he becomes, at least, a useful player, and probably more likely than not that he becomes a good player. And, at least in my opinion, it is most likely that he becomes something about a quality regular and a borderline star, but probably has a better chance of true stardom than being a bust.
But even in the best case scenario (4) or the more probably optimistic scenario (3), he's still going to take time to get there. Let's not hang on his every ugly at-bat or outfield blunder, but look at the larger trajectory. As the cliche goes, baseball is a marathon, not a sprint.
This team is doing two things so far this season.
1. Winning close games, which they haven’t done much in the past.
2. Not quitting in the late innings.
Both have been trademarks of past Angel teams. This team, so far, is really awesome to watch.
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