floplag

5 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

@disarcina

I think you’re overvaluing what the Angels would get in return for Ohtani and undervaluing what it be worth to actually make the playoffs (in terms of the overall fan experience, the money the Angels make from it, and the amount that it would increase their chances of re-signing Ohtani). It would also send a terrible message to the players (including future players you might want to sign) if you trade Ohtani away while you’re in the race. 

You’re probably also undervaluing the draft pick they’d get for him. (Zach Neto and Ben Joyce were “just draft picks.”) Also there’s a bunch of extra draft pool money you get with that pick.

Honest question Jeff... Your right about all of that, at this point were never getting full value if you ever actually could, BUT... if he reaches FA, do you think there is an actual chance in Hades that Arte wins a bidding war with the Dodgers and Mets?  Regardless of where we finish the year?  Heck assume we win the WS... will Arte ever actually allow a 500M+ contract?

Furthermore, do we even want him to?  How does that affect us moving forward when even more money is tied up in one guy leaving us even less flexibility under the cap that Arte has yet to show he will ever break?

We all want him to stay, but its really not that simple is it.  The recent surge hasnt changed my view and i suspect the same people telling me im crazy will be the same ones complaining that we got nothing for him if/when that time comes. 

At this point you just gotta feel sorry for the guy as much as the fans. 
Hes not out there trying to get hurt but hes a magnet for random injuries... so frustrating at a spot we just dont have quality depth. 

Overall, you gotta believe, at least a little.
Up to a couple weeks ago ive been as negative as any but winning cures a lot of ills.  Were starting to see the team we thought we were in ST and were not yet running on all cylinders.
We still have gaps, the front office needs to do its job as much as any player on the field. 
Right now the standings say were in it... still on the outside looking in barely, but right there if they can keep this going.  This next couple weeks is favorable in that regard if they can beat teams they are supposed to beat. 
It will be interesting to see how they react to last night injuries... im guessing well be without Urshela for a couple weeks and who knows with Rendon.

1 minute ago, stormngt said:

Ironically, bringing Goldschmidt might improve our chances to extend Ohtani

This
If there was EVER A time for Arte to go ham, its now.
Yeah some tax but not a full seasons worth and ups your chanced to keep him inthe fold.
Its crunch time for Arte IMO.

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

We went from sell everything and dismantle the team to "going all in" in a matter of four days.

No, not really, i was just curious since people were suggesting we were going for it what that meant.

Were certainly not there with the current roster so with the assumption that additions are to be made i wondered what people thought that would or should look like to qualify as going all in.

For me its go big or go home.  The problem with that is we dont really have the farm for it or the budget, which is why ive assumed we would not, but IF im wrong, and i hope i AM, Arte is either going to have to blow the tax or were going to lose some people we dont want to.

IMO we need another high leverage reliever no matter what else we do, weve got to get production from 1B, possibly another SP.  Id like to get a short term answer at C as I dont have a ton of faith in Thaiss/Wallach to maintain the production to date but i also dont see a ton of options there so it may not matter, Grandal maybe?

THAT, to me, is going all in... no one could question the effort or desire if we made something like that happen. It probably decimates whats left of the farm which many wont like but considering its already bottom 5 that doesnt say much.

Goldschmidt, Stroman, Chapman, Grandal, other similar guys ... Is any of that realistic, i wish i knew, i kinda doubt it if im being honest, i guess well see. 

So after the conversation the other day, im curious what "going all in" looks like to the board.  Im assuming this means adding between now and the deadline as the current roster inst that.

Forget for a minute whether or not its realistic or whether Arte will once and for all finally put his wallet where his mouth is tax wise... lets assume for arguments sake he will (even though ill believe that when i see it)... 

And for now well assume Ohtnai is NOT being traded.

Who do we try to add, what does that look like?

GoldSchmidt?  Stroman?  Chapman?  Any C options to bridge to OHoppes return?  

I dont know how realistic any of that is given the farm but im curious where people are on this? 

28 minutes ago, Blarg said:

A trade for Goldschmidt would be salary relief for the Cards, I would not include any of Adell, Moniak or Adams in the deal. That's just giving away talent for a guy they would want to unload while rebuilding, so if anything you give them Walsh and a couple of lower prospect players. 

This, im not giving up those guys and taking back the contract.  Id love to see this but i think the contract is not something Arte will assume.

14 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The last time they were sort of in it they got Justin Upton, so I do think if they are in it they will try to add pieces and go for it. 

Also, all their moves this winter suggested going for it now. 

I hope so, i guess well see.

4 minutes ago, DCAngelsFan said:

It's not "giving him away" - if he chooses to leave, then he leaves.  

Who "gave" Vlad away to us?   Who gave away Max Scherzer?  

No idea.  

Who sold Babe Ruth?  Who traded Pedro Martinez for Delino Deshields?

Don't even need to look them up.

The only scenario in which I trade him is if we're well out of it, *and* he tells management he won't sign an extension with this team, we absolutely know we can't afford him (and he plans to go to the highest bidder) or some team offers some astronomical haul of players.  

Speaking of which, what do you think you'll get for a  guy getting paid $30m a year, and is a FA soon? 

A team can't give up any "All-star" starters to get him - what would be the point if they want to make a playoff run, losing an equal current talent?

So, what, you get a handful of prospects that might be ready to play in 3 or 4 years, and maybe you'll get one able to take Trout's place in the OF as he winds down his career with losing season after losing season.

If we were going to trade him, it should've been this time last year. 

I dunno, I don't want him to leave for nothing, either - but trading him would be a gut punch to every Angel fan - of whom there would be a lot fewer next season.  

If he wants to leave, let *him* make that choice.  

And how many of those fans are only here for him, versus being actual angel fans?   Last i checked were still the angels, not the Ohtanis.

Youre right, it should have already been done, we already bungled that.. all we have now its whats left. 

I would bet right now the Dodgers or Mets would still pay premium, maybe even the Padres...  No, youre not getting all star, but you could easily get a couple of top kids controllable for years.  Fill gaps we otherwise cant.  Isnt that worth something?

IDK this is debated out, people are set in their takes and thats fine, so am i, i still think its the smartest move we have left.

Ill take my leave and let you get back to it.  

29 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Except there is nothing that is “all in” about what you’re suggesting.

If you keep him, you get:

-2 months worth of his production, and all that does to help you get to the playoffs.

-some non-zero chance of re-signing him or a first round draft pick

If you trade him, you get:

-Two good prospects, but no one’s Elly De La Cruz. Maybe some org’s 3 and 10 prospects, plus a third filler  

-Almost no chance of re-signing him.

-Less chance to make the playoffs this year. 
 

That is hardly “all in”

Then why do it at all if its not?
The only reason to take the risk it to make the effort to make a deep playoff run, add at the deadline and try to actually win.
Do you see Arte doing that?  i dont.
Id love to see us go get Stroman since the Cubs dont seem to want to extend him but Arte isnt adding payroll and we dont really have the parts to spare to make a trade like that so... thats not realistic.
Dont get me wrong i dont want to trade him, i just think its in the best interest of the club to do so in the current paradigm. 

4 minutes ago, Torridd said:

Logic suggests? We're talking about armaggeddon you green-blooded... (I couldn't resist!)

Well played sir, well played... 

47 minutes ago, DCAngelsFan said:

The regular season is who has the best, most-balanced team.

Playoffs are about who's hottest.

I don't think Arte can trade Ohtani - even if he told the club "No way I'm re-signing here", Arte probably wouldn't want to be known as the guy who traded away Babe Ruth nee' Ohtani for a bunch of guys whose name no one remembers.

I think he may elect to go all in, make some eye-watering trade for someone like Stroman and just hope for the best.   

If he doesn't, and we miss the playoffs by 1 game, and Ohtani walks, he'll be the biggest goat (not GOAT) baseball has seen in years.

 

No hed be known as the guy that gave him away for nothing... i wonder which is worse? 

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I think this right here is the flaw in your logic. 
 

I think everyone has been brainwashed by the national media that just assumes Ohtani has no interest in staying.

All of this “Ohtani just wants to win” stuff is really based on one or two sentences he uttered over the last two years. No one really ever gets into his head. (Trust me on this one. I’ve tried.) He said he “wants to win.” Who doesn’t?  

Beyond all that, don’t discount the fact that Ohtani is comfortable here and the organization revolves around him. He gets to do what he wants. Would another team twist its roster around to accommodate him in the same way? Maybe. Maybe not. It would be an unknown to him. 
 

So the bottom line is you simply can’t assume, right now on June 13, that Ohtani is gone or that they can’t win this year.

(Edit: to be clear, I am not trying to get anyone’s hopes up that Ohtani is definitely coming back. I still think it’s more likely that he’s not. I say there’s a 30 percent chance he stays. That’s just my guess.)

In my defense i would say no im not, seeing their comments supports my position but didnt influence or create it.  To me the fact that he hasnt extended, for whatever reason, is proof enough.
His own words have made clear what he wants, and i dont think well get lucky twice a la Trout. 
Im not assuming anything, i could be wrong, maybe he stays when all is said and done, and maybe this team does do batter than it looks right now, i certainly cant see the future, but thats a hell of a gamble when you have a chip of that value. 
If it all works out, you look like a genius, if it doesnt work out, you look like an absolute imbecile.

I agree though on youre estimate of percentage, 25 maybe 30%... so thats bascially 3 or 4 to one against.. do you go all in on a bad situation with those odds?  Logic would suggest thats a bad play to make. 

29 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I was in favor of trading him last winter, because I thought it was what's best for the team. People that are still in favor, I think just want to see a trade for the entertainment value of it. 

Obviously a lot can happen between now and the deadline, but from where the Angels are sitting on June 13, no way they trade him. 

This is absolutely not true.
I have been saying we should, or at least been open to it, not because i want to, but because its what makes sense for the club. 
Id love to keep him, but im not sure i want to pay anyone 50M+ under Moreno, it creates more issues than it solves budget wise.
Letting him walk for nothing doesnt help anything, getting a couple young potential studs, certainly does. 
Long term we may need those at bats.
These are baseball reasons, not fandom reasons, not drama reasons... debate them if you wish but dont make assumptions like that. 
No fan of this team WANTS to trade him, but the realiity of him not being here next year one way or another is upon us. 
We can either profit from it, or look like idiots.  Were going to get blasted either way. 

 

Well, im one of them, and possibly the reasons for this post so... ill chime in.

This is why that decision should have been made before opening day.  Right now its lose lose.  You either risk him walking for nothing, or you irritate a lot of people.   Right now, were in it, reasonably, were still on the outside looking in but were close, 10 days ago we were not, where will we be in the next 10?  I dont have a crystal ball.  But ask yourself how youre going to feel or what shape the club is going to be in if we come up short, and he walks for nothing.  

The key thing is that it isnt all about Ohtani.  Of course the goal is to win, it comes down to do you think thats realistic.  Are we more than a WC team.   I certainly think we could be, but right now thats debatable.   Even after a hot streak we are still 5.5 out of the division and one back of the wild card.  Certainly "in it", but still not there. 

But regarding Ohtani Is anything we do going to be enough for him to stay?  I dont think so, almost nobody does think there is even a remote chance he extends.  Then we get into a bidding War with the Dodgers or Mets that we simply cannot win. 

And then there is the matter of what he will cost.  Given that Arte isnt leaving, and there is virtually no chance he will ever break the tax, do we really wnt to be holding a 500M contract.  We will have even less flexibility to make moves or improve than we do now. 

Lets say we do, what about 5 years from now when both he and Trout need DH time?  

There is no trade you get value, we all know that, and the rumor mills are often nonsense but some of them ive read could be very interesting.   Youre not getting a superstar back, but thats not really the point is it.  What you could get is a couple of young potential stars, recent call ups that could have impact, maybe a couple kids to beef up a horrific farm.  One rumor i heard for example was that the mets would start with Alvarez and Baty.   Now i dont know how true that is but if its anything close to that it doesnt suck.

If you could guarantee me a title with him even if he walks, fine im in... even guarantee me a WS berth... same, but you cant.  Hes had every opportunity to extend, yet he hasnt.  He isnt the type to come out and say it but that fact speaks volumes.  Whether its him wanting to play elsewhere or ownership not wanting to give him what he might get doesnt really matter, the result is the same. 

We need to get out heads around the probability of life after Ohtani... we can either profit from it, or make perhaps the biggest mistake in franchise history.

I know im going to get railed for this, and thats fine, its how it works here if you dont follow a certain logic, but youre betting the future, for the now.. are you really that convinced?  Im not. 

Need 3, must at least split. 

All of the above.
Nevin did a poor job but guys gotta execute when called on.

So we have a pitching coach... why?  exactly?  

Virtually every season in recent memory weve had to post and read this... you could have posted this in any number of the last 5-10 years, in fact i think you have.  THATS the perspective. 
 

Id love to see this but i think they are fighting an uphill battle due to metro size.

IMO, id like to see this...
As to Vegas
Rays to Nashville/Charlotte

I think MLB wants to go international more so i think Mex City and maybe a return to Montreal (although i would prefer western Canada personally) would come before any smaller US markets like SLC or some have said Portland. 

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Jesus of course they have a budget. They spend 60% of revenue on payroll that is probably way towards the top in the league. Every single business has a budget. How do you not understand by now spending on the pen is far from a sure thing and yet they still gave out $20 million in bullpen contracts this off season. Not a single premium SS will be worth their contract as SS age poorly most of the time. 

You are the absolute master of double talk.. no matter what someone says you pull some new rabbit out of the hat to argue it.

No SS worth it but no SP is either and you always seem to want those in the past?  Is anyone once they hit FA in business terms really?  

But if your going to play the business card then In business when you need something you dont have to succeed, you go get it... you dont not and then wonder why you failed, its self fulfilling at that point.  Especially if your saying you cant afford a counter after buying an expensive oven... you shouldnt have bought the oven if thats the case.  No business runs how this team has, zero, not one that stays in business.  

But bringing it back to baseball Arte has said he would for the right guy, that he ants to win... hes said all the right things but if he doenst think he has the right guys then that player doesnt exist since he has 2 of the best in te game perhaps ever.

It isnt about going over just to pay them, its about going over to build a complete team to win with them.  

17 hours ago, Stradling said:

There’s no financial reason to sign one of those SS at those prices. We can now realistically sign Ohtani where we couldn’t if we signed an expensive SS. 

IF we truly have the budget you think we do, no, we cant.  This is the illogical part of all this.
If we have limits, then hes gone as he will add at least what, 20M to current level putting us over hose limits.
Even if he does for him how does signing him help us if we continue to have no money to address other needs? 
The farm isnt the answer being in the bottom 5 overall. 
IMO we could have, we chose not to. 
Were going in without a legit SS and still with a suspect bullpen in a day when SP barely get you over half the game.  Forget SS why wasnt that addressed? 
Were going to be good im not suggesting otherwise, but we could/should have been better

21 minutes ago, OhtaniToTheMoon said:

The SS signings were impossible for us. All too expensive when we had other needs, plus we signed Moore! He was an expensive bullpen addition

No, im sorry but there is no version of this where i believe this club count not have exceeded the cap if it wanted to. There is no financial reason to believe that.
And IF that were ever true then we never should have signed Rendon or extended Trout as this was inevitable.   Nor could we realistically extend Ohtani. 
Perry and Arte tell us there is no limit for the right guys, yet let them all pass us by. 

This is the primary reason i still say the off season was incomplete.
We didnt address this or the need for a legit SS.
I hope im wrong, but from where i sit the SP better be as good as we think as the pen definitely will not be.

Based on Artes most recent contract its possible many of us (including myself) have this all wrong.
He compared it to Trout, said hes willing, but Ohtani has to make up his mind that he wants to be here. 
IF thats all true then the balls is in Ohtani's court, not Artes.
Ohtani always had all the control, but many of us have been assuming Arte wasnt willing to do what it takes.
I guess well see.