floplag

Hes always deserved props in this regard, the problem inst that he didnt spend, he just backed himself against a wall he wasnt willing to go thru in the tax.   You cant sign that many top dollar guys then cry budget. 
I give him full marks for what hes done, 100%, but full demerits for not being willing to finish the path he put himself on.
3 guys are literally half our payroll, the tax was inevitable. 

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

Not necessarily.  As fans, we just tend to see what is on the open market and have "brand name recognition," but a lot of very savvy GMs are able to find value even late in the game.

Just as an example, but Minasian swung his trade for Cobb late in the offseason, and Cobb went on to have a fantastic season for us.  There are always opportunities available.

It isnt about brand names, its about impact.
I would be just as happy to swing a trade for a SS, but the reality is that we dont have the farm to trade for an impact SS, unless we take on a bad contract or give up guys we shouldnt be giving up in controllable young starters we actually also need.  Weakening one area to buff another is generally a zero sum equation.
But the simple fact is that SS is the one place that we most needed to upgrade.
If Perry can somehow swing a deal hat doesnt cost us Suarez or Sandoval to get the SS we need, no one will be happier than I, but he has zero leverage right now and every team he calls knows it.
Thats what position he never should have let himself get put in. 

18 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

And don't get me wrong.  What's left on the FA market is dookie.  But if the option is to go into the season with what we have right now vs. adding someone of league average value to create some mediocre redundancy, then I choose the latter.  I'll even take someone like Josh Harrison over leaving it alone.  

This
The problem i that this is what were down to, it never should have happened. 
Its last call and were still dancing alone. 

Significant, yes.  Unless you count an Adrus type signing as such.
Were not the only ones that need a SS and others can offer more in trade so that option is limited. 

3 hours ago, ScruffytheJanitor said:

Y'all are too damn gloomy - save that shit for the season. This is the season for sick line ups and irrational optimism.

92-70.

do we have any sick lineups? 

23 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

 

this is not necessarily true across the board.  

maybe for Ohtani but that's a very special situation because of his overall importance to the franchise.  Any franchise.  So you are forced to wait until the last possible second to trade him as long as he given an indication that he may be willing to stay. 

your premise for trading the rest of the guys now is based on a message board poster's estimate of the number of wins that will likely occur for this team.  I bet you the front office would disagree that they can't make the playoffs

plus, the other guys mentioned might actually have as much if not more value at the deadline.  They're all mildly expensive even though decently productive.  If Loup and Tepera have better seasons they're definitely worth more at the deadline.  Right now they'd be salary dumps.  And Renfroe or Urshela will have half of their salary paid by the deadline.  

And don't discount the desperation factor that occurs mid season 

i did not suggest trading the rest, they are fine for the deadline. 
Ohtani is absolutely a unique case, but there is no logic that suggests its likely he would have more value for 2 months, than a full season.   
Youre banking on someone being so desperate they have to overpay, i prefer the known. 

19 minutes ago, Stradling said:

There are reasons to not trade them now. You just choose not to see them. 

No you choose to want them to be, but the simple fact is we get more value now, than we will then, and you should know that. 

7 minutes ago, jordan said:

I like the moves Perry has made thus far, but nothing pushes the Angels in the playoff picture so far.  I do see better seasons from Sandoval and Detmers. If either or both of them pitch like a #2 or 1b, Angels could move into wild card picture.  That’s a huge IF. 

I love what hes done so far, started off doing the exact right things... but as usual were left wondering if or when they will finish the job, and its starting to look like they wont. 
A huge if isnt going to retain Ohtani, im sorry blast me all you want but thats just reality, hes gone if thats who we are.

36 minutes ago, Revad said:

Ohtani, Loup, Tepera, Urshela and Renfroe to trade at the deadline.  Plus new owners coming in.  Could be worse.

You get more trading them now, and if were not projected  to make the playoffs with a healthy roster there is little reason to assume all will go perfectly to do so. Ohtani is the only one i would trade now... they have to know if they have a chance at keeping him or not and unless they are 100% sure, its dumb not to. 

17 minutes ago, jordan said:

We miss playoffs and are middle of the pack with 80 wins.  Ohtani is traded also. Life after Ohtani begins.  

If this is where we project, and its about right and seems to be consensus, there is no reason to not trade him not and get more value. 
Not what i wanted or hoped, but this is where we are today.

11 minutes ago, Taylor said:

That's my point. We always have false hope that somehow everything could go right, none of the best players will get injured, etc. 

We have helped out depth, 100%, but we had chances to help the front lines, and havent, at least not impactfully.  Theres still time for Perry to do something but hes lost all the leverage and will have to give up a lot of things people here will not like to do it.

1 minute ago, Taylor said:

82-86, miss playoffs. For the past eight seasons or so we go into it saying, "If everything goes right, this is easily a 90+ win team." 

Spoiler alert, everything never goes right. 
Winning 85 would be a 12 game improvement over last year and still leave us 5 back of where the Ms where so, yeah, another third place season and no playoffs... and once again completely self inflicted as everything we needed was available. 

I have no interest in Swanson at this point, hes going to get way over paid for what he is.

I dont really want to make a trade that might cost us what we would need to make a better acquisition later such as Torres / Adames / Farmer, i fear it will cost us more than we get back.   None of those guys to me are worth Sandoval for example. 

At this point i wonder if Segura can still play SS or looking at Andrus as a stop gap... this is not what i hoped for, but thats what were down to.

The impact window has closed on us, we let it go by,  now we have zero leverage, and Ohtani has zero reason to extend. 

As usual we started off strong then failed in crunch time.  Unless Perry can swing some trade im not seeing right now that doesnt cost us too much on an already weak farm, were in deep trouble.

14 hours ago, Swordsman78 said:

This little graphic hits home and not in a good way.  No reason at all that the Halos should have performed so poorly over the past 10 seasons.  

Was the problem not enough sense of urgency to win now,  hence not going over the luxury tax threshold, or too much sense of urgency to win now which resulted in horrible mega contracts?

There has to be viable path for a quick turnaround.  I don't think many have the patience to wait another 5 years while they off load and rebuild.

The biggest problem with all that isnt waiting 5 years, its that weve been told thats what they have been doing for the last 10.
But yeah, that graphic pretty much sums up in my view why we seem unable to sign players without over bidding. 
Would you want to play here given all that?  Be honest...   and before anyone plays the Ohtani card lets not forget we were the only teams that could give him what he wanted and where, we didnt earn that, we defaulted into it.  

29 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I’m not sure there was ever a realistic plan that would have us be better or on par with Houston on paper.  If you get in via the Wild Card you can win the World Series.  Philly wasn’t better on paper than Atlanta, the Mets, the Dodgers or the Padres, yet they made it to the World Series.  A rotation that starts with Ohtani and Sandoval can win a wild card round, then you are simply another team in the playoffs, and how you got there is inconsequential.  This team will be as good this year as the health of Trout, Ohtani and Rendon.  

Perhaps not, but we certainly could have been better than we are today and increase those odds.

What i would like, isnt likely to happen.

I think the real impact is largely gone, short of going ham, which most feel wont happen. and we dont have the farm to make any significant trades without taking back bad contracts and that goes back to the budget issue again.

Ive soured on Swanson as i believe he will be grossly overpaid for what he will produce and if the budget constraints are true Correa was never an option, nor is Rodon.

Dont get me wrong there are good players left/out there, but none that will make us suddenly competitive with Hou or more than a wildcard contender and i dont think thats going to be enough to retain Ohtani.

Perry is going to have to pull a rabbit out of his hat to get what the club needs and stay out of the tax.   

It depends on how you define "worked out"?  
Is any such contract likely to be worth the money, no.  Most are signed when the player is 30ish and covers what will inevitably be declining years.
BUT, if that comes with on field success for the franchise, then yes, it worked out.
Trout, as a player, is worth every penny we have or will pay him, but the deal will be considered a bust if we dont win, same with Pujols... had we won a couple WS with him would anyone have cared?
The Padres will probably eventually regret some of these deals they are signing but i give them full marks for going after the Dodgers, and they have had some success. so do you think their fan base is complaining about it right now?
No one cheers for building the future or fiscal budget management, were sports fans, we want wins... the rest is for the businessmen. 

19 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I didn’t say that it is our only path to relevancy.  That’s your opinion.  I’m perfectly fine trading for a SS that doesn’t cost $25-35 million.  As for the next owner being in the loop, maybe they are.  But if you and I struggle to agree how to spend someone else’s money how do you think multiple billionaires feel about agreeing on how Arte spends their money? Remember there are multiple bidders right now. One may want Senga and Dansby, one may want Correa. Hell one may want Rodon, Correa, Senga, Kimbrel and Nimmo.  

No i think they all want a winning team.  
Your path doesnt move the needle, thats the problem, it doesnt affect the standings to get an medium grade upgrade at SS and trade away pitching to get it only to sign more.
Its still going to cost well over 20+M to go your route unless you think youre getting Bassitt on the cheap when most projections have him getting 15-20 alone, then you add in Adames who is estimated to get nearly 10 himself so... youre giving up Sandoval to pay nearly the same money and not get as good of an upgrade plus giving up a top young SP?

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Correct all owners can go over. The reality is even the most rich teams go over then reset, then go over. By the 4th year of going over you are paying 50 cents for every dollar going over. The bigger part of this still comes down to a new owner coming in and being tied to an expensive roster, paying the tax, with very little input on who is on the roster without paying a tax for every dollar they spend. 

Correct, but as said its our only path the relevancy right now, we have no other options based on past actions. 
Also, you really think these prospective buyers arent in the loop?  Wouldnt you want to be?  There is no way Arte is doing this of his own accord if it would damage the sale or his profits.  I would be shocked if they were not, in fact i think they are the likely reason for the current talking points.
Im certain they want to keep Ohtani and are likely approving any spending we make from this point on. 

40 minutes ago, Hubs said:

In regards to @Stradling and @floplag's discussion above... 

There are two other teams with smaller markets who have this same scenario ($175 for 8 guys) and the Mets and Dodgers have in recent seasons done this as well.

Phillies have 8 guys making over $16M for 2023, with Aaron Nola at $16 and the only 2023-2024 FA. Taijuan Walker is at $18,  Schwarber and Castellanos are at $20 each, Realmuto is at 23.875, Wheeler is at $24.5 and Turner is at $27.5 with Harper at $27.5 too.

$177.375 for 8 guys.

Padres have a little more flexibility as they only have 6 guys making more than $16, Because Tatis is not making any serious money until $2025, it was $341 over 14 covering his arbitration years, so he's only paid $7.7 M in 2023. They also have some free agents coming up in 2023-2024.

Blake Snell is at $16.6, Yu Darvish is at $19, Musgrove is at $20, Juan Soto is at $23.5, Bogaerts is at $25.5 and Machado is at $30. They have Hader at $12.75 and three guys making $10M.

That's 177.3 for 10 guys... but still

In the scenario above, Angels will have presumably Ohtani at $45? Trout at $35.5, Rendon at $35, a SS in the $22-$32 range, then Anderson at $13, which is 5 guys making around $155.5. They have only Stassi, Estevez and Fletcher under contract for the 2024 season, which would be 8 contracts at $175 which is what Stradling said. 

I'd imagine you add the arbitration estimates for as many as 11 guys (6 A2 and up to 5 A1, my estimates put that at like 40-45M if players do well in 2023.... which they want) , and adding no more significant free agents, letting Renfroe, Urshela, Loup and Tepera walk, and you'd still be topping $220M in 2024...before adding another guy. I'd expect a few non-tenders but you're still looking at say 17 guys (one I don't think will reach the arbitration threshold as projected and one will be gone. So you'd have 9 spots to fill for around $10M.... which is fine if it's club guys, but they would likely be over in 2024 as well.

Now in 2025, Estevez, Fletcher, Stassi all come off, and so you'd be able to add a few names...but the arb class will get more expensive. 

Stradling is right, they'd likely commit to paying the tax minimum through 2025, and likely through 2026, but might be able to squeeze under in 26.

But the only positions that wouldn't be basically set for 3-4 years is one of the corner OF spots, and 1st base if Walsh doesn't come back to form. The rotation would have 5 guys locked in. 

Of course, trading some salary can help, but it is doable, they'd just be paying a tax for the rest of the Rendon contract.

If they had a huge group of depth position wise in AAA and AA it would be okay to do this. Neto and O'Hoppe are the only guys I see likely being starters, but it would all be young guys for depth in the lineup and the pen.

 

 

 

 

Excellent breakdown, and yes thats exactly what you commit to, and it lease very few holes over that time.
Worst case, you need another corner OF or 1B, those generally arent hard spots to fill. 
The reality is that this is the path ownership put us on, if someone has another option for how to make this team relevant this year, im all ears. 

38 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Ok live in a world with zero limitations. I’ll live in reality. You are right we won’t agree.  I’m all for spending big but I also understand what it will mean down the road. 

I never said zero limitation, why does the hyperbole always come into play?  I said more than we are, perhaps into the lux tax range.. yes for as much as the 4 years.   I do not think thats something the organization and ownership cannot afford.
They created this problem and its their only out now.  If they arent willing then they should be trading people to build the future.
For me its that simple, you cant have it both ways.
 

13 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Ok.  I am not playing both sides of the argument.  I am telling you that if we sign a SS and extend Ohtani that we will be paying 8 guys $175 million and that will cause us to go over the threshold for 4 years when Rendon’s contract is up.  So because of that and arb raises to Ward and Sandoval, we will be at close to $200 million with 14 more roster spots.  If you think they won’t have to go cheap on a position or two then I don’t know what to say.  

No, you dont, as you always come back to this supposed limitation, which as ive said many times i do not believe exists other than what Arte wants to spend, not what he could spend.
The idea that this club CANT do more, is simply not logical based on what we know they have tried to do in other investments.
So yeah, they could do both, if they chose to, if you dont see that then as you say i dont know what to tell you either.
We will not agree on this, we never have.   

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm torn too, @floplag. On one hand, he's Ohtani. On the other, it is hard to justify a third $35M+ AAV, regardless of who the player is. Not to mention that would literally be $75-80M locked into two players for 8+ years (and $100-110M for three for the next four).

The problem I see is that the Angels like to spend on top guys like they're a $250M payroll club. It is one thing to spend $100M of that on three players if you have another $150M to fill out the rest of the other, quite another if you only have $80M more. Unless you've got a great farm system and/or are a Billy Beane, it is hard to fill 23 roster spots with $80M and still be a contender.

 

Meaning, the Angels spend on premium guys like the Dodgers do, but don't have the farm or payroll like the Dodgers have.

 

Its a double edged sword, when you dont have the farm to make aquisitions, spending is your best/only real option.
The org needs to decide if its a player, or it isnt.  We put ourselves on this path then seemingly got scared and pulled back, it makes no sense. 
If we were not willing to do this we never should have signed Trout or Rendon, an we certainly shouldnt be looking at 40M for Ohtani or 30Mish for a top SS.  We should be looking to trade those guys. 
For me this is a pivotal off season for the franchise, we either step up and be players, or we go back to the small market angels and concede the market to the Dodgers once and for all. 

19 hours ago, Stradling said:

Ok.  One of those 8 is the SS you want, another one is Shohei, who isn’t signed yet.

And?  It doesnt change the point.  If we cant afford them then we cant afford them, its that simple.   We either can, or cant, go beyond the comfortable level.  Who they are doenst matter really does it? 
Youre playing both sides here arguing your own point. 

Ill be honest, im torn.  If signing him negates other possibilities then maybe its time to cut bait and get what we can.
As many here suggest we have limits, that if we spend to much in one place we have only penning for others... IF this is true im not sure i want this and think we would be better of dealing him and moving on.
The only way i makes sense is if new ownership is willing to go beyond those limits that Arte would not.
I hope they are, dont get me wrong, i hope they are and we do what it takes to move forward with him and fillin the current needs, but if blowing 40M on him means being unable to fill other holes, then at the end of the day its a business. 
It seems a "cant have it both ways" issue.