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Pancake Bear

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  1. Like
    Pancake Bear reacted to Inside Pitch in Everyone is mad at the very nasty Astros Brandon Taubman   
    Why would anyone have an issue with an old wooden ship from the Civil War era?
  2. Thank You
  3. Like
    Pancake Bear reacted to Angel Oracle in Mickey Callaway to the Angels as pitching coach   
    I’d much rather sign Wheeler than to trade too much away for two years of Thor.
    Cole can be the Halos version of  DeGrom or Thor anyway.
  4. Like
    Pancake Bear got a reaction from Angel Oracle in Mickey Callaway to the Angels as pitching coach   
    No team in baseball would put Maddon as bench coach for anybody. Even if he were hypothetically willing and the team felt their current manager was superior, his going rate is above what most managers receive, let alone bench coaches.
  5. Like
    Pancake Bear got a reaction from tomsred in Sports Illustrated's top 50 free agents: has us signing Strasburg and Castro   
    1B La Stella
    2B Rengifo 
    3B Fletcher
    1B solved. 
  6. Like
    Pancake Bear got a reaction from Glen in Sports Illustrated's top 50 free agents: has us signing Strasburg and Castro   
    Honestly, trying to be aware of the needs of all 30 teams and where they might upgrade is always gonna result in quite a few head scratcher predictions in articles like this. It isn’t just SI. Pretty much any article like this will have the same problem. 
  7. Like
    Pancake Bear got a reaction from UndertheHalo in The Official Gerrit Cole (Please sign with the Angels) Thread   
    Running some numbers tonight, I compared Cole to the top pitcher contracts to date: Price, Scherzer, and Greinke. I looked at FA age, innings pitched at that time (obviously only including MLB, since it would be difficult to impossible to go beyond that), fWAR, ERA, FIP, k%. 
    My amateur conclusion based on that (anyone more up on pitcher stats can feel free to do their own check on it): Cole is younger and has less innings on his arm (the first is obvious, the second I'm not certain on since I can't check it absolutely). His k% to date beats the others out at the time of their contract signing, and he compares favorably to all on ERA and FIP. Price edges him in the latter two, but it's close (especially FIP). Interestingly, Scherzer and Price went opposite directions after the contracts were signed.
    Point is, I don't think there's any way he gets less than a 7 year deal, and being younger than Scherzer and Price, I'm second guessing myself on whether he might not get 8. 
    I know it's apples to oranges, but look at how position player salaries have jumped: Harper and Machado's salary totals are far beyond any before them (Pujols, ARod, Miggy, Cano), and Trout eclipsed both by a wide margin (Trout is less relevant here, since he is far beyond both). 
    On annual average and total money, given that those contracts are between 4-5 years old, I think the current records are probably his floor. Quite simply, he seems - to my eye (feel free to correct me) - to be the best free agent starting pitcher (based on past performance) to hit the market in the last decade. 
    I previously threw out a guess of 7yr, 224, (32aav). I'm now second guessing myself and thinking 7yr, 245m (35aav) might be slightly conservative.
    I am aware that contracts have slowed down in what owners are willing to spend. The risk involved in that long of a deal on pitchers especially factors in. Still, I'm starting to think 7yr, 250 may be about what he ends up going for. 
  8. Like
    Pancake Bear reacted to Second Base in Sports Illustrated's top 50 free agents: has us signing Strasburg and Castro   
    I won't bore you then. Just go look at his HR's, OBP, BA etc... And then compare him to other starting 1B and DH's. You'll see that he does indeed suck at this point. If the Angels are in contention, like legit contention past May or June, you'll see his AB's dwindle. Either in favor of a youngster that's ready to step up, or to a free agent there likely to bring in, like Todd Frazier.
  9. Like
    Pancake Bear got a reaction from DMVol in Sports Illustrated's top 50 free agents: has us signing Strasburg and Castro   
    Yep. These kinds of articles are Bleacher Report level analysis. If we were gonna get an infielder, that wouldn’t be it. 
  10. Like
    Pancake Bear got a reaction from Warfarin in The Official Off-season Prediction Thread   
    I already made my three predictions in the other thread (and have forgotten half of them). But I'll indulge a lengthier take here just for kicks:
    I think the Angels will sign Cole. The timing of his free agency is a perfect storm. The Angels have the need, the means, and the desperation to make the high bid. They have the connection to him and the word on the street is he's looking to come back to CA. 
    There are no sure things in baseball, but I'm about as confident as one can be without being certain that he'll sign with the Angels. I could be wrong. Usually with things like this, the narrative ends up not happening, but there is too much that makes sense about this for it to not happen, imo. 
    I don't think the Astros, Yankees or Dodgers will make a serious play for Cole (that is, I don't think any of them will make a truly competitive offer in both years and total money to what he ends up with).
    I think the Astros stand pat on pitching, and the Dodgers will maybe re-sign Ryu, but nothing else.
    I think the Yankees won't want to make the commitment to Cole. I think Cashman goes hard for Wheeler and gets him. 
    I don't think Eppler will want to make a big trade, but if he struggles to get a second guy, I think Arte will push him to make a second major acquisition. 
    I think Eppler goes after Hamels or one of the other 2/3 tier guys. 
    I think we could afford to grab Cole and Strasburg, but with Cole in the bag they won't want the risk of another long-term deal. 
    If Eppler can't find a second tier pitcher he likes that is good enough for Arte, I think he will be pressured to make a big trade for Syndergaard or Boyd. I doubt that happens, but I think Arte is tired of waiting.
    Maybe Eppler pushes for someone like Ray to try to keep the farm as intact as possible. 
    I think Eppler pursues Grandal big time and brings him in. 
    I don't think we pursue Rendon at all.
    I think Callaway is brought in as pitching coach.
    I have no idea on bench coach. I'm gonna guess it's someone I'm not really familiar with.
    I think there's a slight chance Maddon lobbies for and succeeds in getting Zobrist to the Angels on a one year deal. It really only makes sense because of the Maddon connection, that Zobrist is older and not looking for a big deal, and still can play effectively. Slight chance, though. 
    I'm on the fence about whether Eppler makes anything more than low level moves for the bullpen. I think he would probably stand pat, but Arte may want a name guy. 
    I am 100% confident on these picks. At least for now.
  11. Like
  12. Like
    Pancake Bear reacted to floplag in Sports Illustrated's top 50 free agents: has us signing Strasburg and Castro   
    While i agree in principle,  there is being aware and then there is not haiving a freaking clue.
  13. Like
    Pancake Bear got a reaction from Vegas Halo Fan in Sports Illustrated's top 50 free agents: has us signing Strasburg and Castro   
    Yep. These kinds of articles are Bleacher Report level analysis. If we were gonna get an infielder, that wouldn’t be it. 
  14. Like
    Pancake Bear got a reaction from TBailey in The Official Gerrit Cole (Please sign with the Angels) Thread   
    I don’t think they have inside info on who he will sign with. I do think they’re aware that he wants to play as close as possible to home. The Angels are an obvious fit. That’s why unless they screw it up, I think he’ll have a contract signed before the new year.  
  15. Like
    Pancake Bear got a reaction from Chuck in Angels star Mike Trout voted 2019 Sporting News MLB Player of the Year   
    I'd been wondering if this was going to be another, "Let's give the MVP to someone other than Trout again" season. But he won MLBPA's top player award, SN Player of the Year. I'd be stunned at this point if he doesn't win MVP. 
  16. Like
    Pancake Bear reacted to tdawg87 in What If Cole Is Too Expensive?   
    That would be Facking stupid.
  17. Haha
    Pancake Bear reacted to Inside Pitch in The Official Gerrit Cole (Please sign with the Angels) Thread   
    The Angels should sign Felix to a one day contact so he can retire as an Angel and the 5 people in Seattle who didn't lose their minds over Ohtani go absolutely apeshit.
  18. Like
    Pancake Bear reacted to Ace-Of-Diamonds in What If Cole Is Too Expensive?   
    Simmons also next year, and  Calhoun this year. If we don't sign Cole it won't be because of money. It will be because he just didn't want to be an Angel...
  19. Like
    Pancake Bear reacted to Second Base in The Official Gerrit Cole (Please sign with the Angels) Thread   
    We prefer Nor Cal. 
    But if it does come down to California teams, it's between the Angels, Dodgers and Padres.
    The Padres do have money to spend, but likely not as much as the Angels, and the Dodgers will also likely be in the market, but if history of that front office tells us anything about them, it's that they'll spend to retain talent more than they will on large free agent contracts.
    So I'd expect the Dodgers to spend on Ryu instead of invest in Cole, but you know they'll hang out in the periphery just in case the asking price works in a range they're comfortable with.
    The Angels have the clear advantage geographically, with his family history and the sheer fact that they're desperate. They're more likely to over spend than the Dodgers or Padres.
    I sincerely believe he will be an Angel. The last free agent I felt this confident in the team signing was CJ Wilson.
  20. Facepalm
    Pancake Bear got a reaction from VariousCrap in What If Cole Is Too Expensive?   
    We’ve talked a bit around here about getting at least two starters. Thing is, starting pitchers tend to have a high risk, especially over long term contracts. One way to avoid that is through the trade market, but that becomes expensive in prospect currency. So that really isn’t a better option than throwing a five year contract at someone like Wheeler. 
    I guess what I’m saying is if their target is Cole, I’m dubious that Eppler gives out two (or more) contracts of 5 (or more in the case of Cole) years to a free agent SP. 
    It’s risky enough going all in on a long term deal at SP, but doing it multiple times the same offseason could really jack up the franchise long term if both contracts underwhelm. 
    It makes me wonder if we’ll pursue a trade or a shorter term option after Cole - assuming he’s our top target.
  21. Like
    Pancake Bear got a reaction from Sherlock31 in David Fletcher a Gold Glove finalist for 3B   
    I don’t think Fletch had enough games at 3B to get the votes. But it’s totally awesome to see him get the recognition. 
  22. Like
    Pancake Bear got a reaction from Game 6 in David Fletcher a Gold Glove finalist for 3B   
    I don’t think Fletch had enough games at 3B to get the votes. But it’s totally awesome to see him get the recognition. 
  23. Haha
    Pancake Bear reacted to T.G. in What If Cole Is Too Expensive?   
  24. Thank You
    Pancake Bear reacted to Lou in What If Cole Is Too Expensive?   
    Cole is a lock.
  25. Like
    Pancake Bear reacted to Chuck in Joe Maddon introduction   
    I'll say this much. If any FA player watched today's press conference they're probably telling their agent to reach out to the Angels to work out a deal.
    Who wouldn't want to play for Joe Maddon?
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