BackUpTheTruck

Dodgers might be betting on Ross Stripling’s improvement

It’s 2020 and the Dodgers have still just made one offseason acquisition. Maybe that’s all that’s coming this offseason even though there’s still plenty of time until Opening Day.
But with the loss of Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill, and also finishing second in the Gerrit Cole sweepstakes, it appears they might be getting ready to lean on some of their pitching depth from years past (Ross Stripling, Julio Urias) and a couple of prospects (Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May). So, let’s take a look at Mr. Stripling.
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Stripling, 30, was an All-Star back in 2018 when he was one of the unsung heroes of that Dodger team in the first half. He finished the season with a career-high 122 innings and pitched to a 3.02 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 2.99 xFIP and a 22.7 K-BB%. Those are all really strong numbers for any non-ace pitcher. He pitched in just 90 2/3 innings last season, but was still solid: 3.47 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 3.58 xFIP, 19.7 K-BB%. He missed time due to a neck and bicep issue. He returned to the Dodgers late in the season and appears to be fully healthy for the 2020 season.
Looking at Stripling’s numbers, there are some interesting things to take note of.
Reverse Splits
Did you know Stripling pitches better against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters? It’s true!
Split IP ERA FIP xFIP wOBA K-BB% HR/9 LOB% vs. LHH 190 2.51 3.34 3.27 .277 18.0 0.95 83.5 vs. RHH 197 4.48 3.85 3.70 .322 17.8 1.32 71.8 As you can see, he fares much better against lefties. It’s a little strange because he doesn’t seemingly have a true out-pitch, let alone a pitch that allows him to have better results against lefties. Coming up through the minors and early in his pro career, he was fastball-curveball-slider guy. His curveball was his best pitch and is still quite effective, but the change — no pun intended — came when he embraced his changeup.
Improved Changeup
In his rookie season (2016), Stripling threw just 157 changeups, good for a 9.96% usage rate. He threw it even less frequently in 2017 — 6.72 percent. It had always induced a fair number of whiffs, but he has upped the usage — and whiff rates — in the last two seasons.
Year Usage% Whiff% wOBA 2016 9.96 14.01 .209 2017 6.72 14.47 .209 2018 10.98 17.75 .233 2019 14.68 18.40 .238 Sure, the wOBA has increased with more usage, but so have the whiffs. Still, a wOBA in the .230s against opposite-handed hitters is nothing to sneeze at. He now has more confidence in the pitch at the expense of his slider, which isn’t a bad thing.
Fewer Sliders
Stripling threw his slider 34.39 percent of the time in 2017. That number dipped to 26.17 percent during his All-Star campaign. Ever since ’17, when FanGraphs had it at 6.9 runs above average, it has been worth -0.5 runs above average over the last two seasons. Part of the problem is both-handed hitters are hitting it with more authority.
In his career, 14 of his 49 home runs allowed have come on the slider. Considering he has thrown his fastball (22 homers allowed) 951 more times in his career than his slider, that’s not a great endorsement of the pitch. Plus, it hasn’t really passed the eye test for me. It has more of a cutter shape rather than a traditional slider, and since the velocity separation between the fastball and slider isn’t terribly high, it’s easier for hitters to adjust to the slider than, say, the changeup, which has gotten better over the last couple seasons.
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With the Dodgers potentially getting ready to lean more on Stripling, the fact that he has been consistently solid and has shown signs of improvement in specific areas could mean good things. Of course, the workload is going to be something to monitor, seeing as he has made 61.8 percent of his MLB appearances out of the bullpen. He has gotten to 100 or more innings just twice, so don’t expect him to be a 150-plus inning guy in 2020. That’s partly why some (me) are concerned about the Dodgers losing parts of their quality starting pitching depth. If injuries crop up or Stripling or the other young guys falter, that’s going to put a lot more pressure on Walker Buehler (no problem), a less-effective Clayton Kershaw and an enigmatic Kenta Maeda.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Dodgers acquired some form of starting pitcher before the start of the season, only because of the quartet of Gonsolin, May, Stripling and Urias. But the fact that Stripling is a cerebral guy, who has embraced the data provided by the front office and has done everything he has been asked, leads me to believe he could be a quality starter for the Dodgers next season and for years to come. The fact that he handles lefties so well should behoove him going forward.

All I know is that the starting rotation has a lot less question marks today than last year.
Teheran/Bundy/Stripling will provide much needed consistency to go with a power packed lineup. If Canning and Ohtani can hold their own its going to be fun to watch.

The gap between us and Houston is narrowing by the day!

I'm excited about this trade.
The further we get from the Gerrit Cole sweepstakes, the happier I am that we won't be paying him $35+M to pitch when he's 36+ years old.

The results have to be reviewed in Iowa first.

The #2 rated prospect in the Pioneer League. 

Goodwin might be getting traded.   I’d put money he’s on the move.  

So getting Joc seemed to me a lot like getting a younger Kole Calhoun (stats wise) lets look at the 2019 numbers:
 
Kole: .232/.325/.467/.792 OPS - 33 HR - 74 RBI - 2.3 WAR - 162 K - 152 G - 10.5 Million Salary 2019
Joc: .249/.339/.538/.876 OPS - 36 HR - 74 RBI - 3.3 WAR - 111 K - 149 G - Making 5 Million this season (I think)
 
One intangible thing is that Joc's younger brother has Down Syndrome and is quite close to Pujols, and Pujols' foundation does a lot for Joc's brother.

Pederson could also be an insurance policy if Upton doesn't bounce back.  Makes Upton a lot easier to bench.

Here we go.  So fucking predictable.  When it’s all said and done Bernie will be the winner but it doesn’t matter they’ve got their fucking stolen caucus.  Disgusting fucking scum.  
 
 

If you guys think this is being done out of incompetence then I don't know what to tell you. This is calculated (pun intended). They do not want Bernie to win.

It’s hard to not suspect they’re doing this because Bernie won and they’re trying to dampen it. 

Having the government in charge of healthcare has got to be much easier than counting votes in Iowa ... right?
 
 

The Dems seem like they're 100% ready to be handed the reins of the government.  Clearly they'll be ready on day one.
 
 

Option 2 is the most common one ive read in various places, it seems to be popular, but I for one am still wondering why this is so sacred to NL fans.
Where is the joy in watching someone try to hit, and i say try as most are just flat terrible at it. 
What ever will rosters do without the vaunted pinch hitting specialist?!?!?  (oh wait he can just be the DH)
And dont get me started on the pure excitement of the... double switch! (done in "no one expects the Spanish inquisition" style voice)
We are now seeing guys that are largely DHs making he hall of fame, if anything the NL is cheating itself out of what could be generational players, limiting themselves on trades and acquisitions but not having that spot to offer, and any number of logical reasons aside from purity, that tell us its time. 

Mike Soroka was taken 2 picks after Ward btw.

As always, ZIPS projections are way too conservative. Rendon is going to have his worst year since 2016? Fletcher only hits .270 and has a 1.5 WAR? Trout having the lowest full-season WAR of his career? And that's just the offense. 
Bundy pitching his fewest innings since 2016? Teheran pitching his fewest innings ever? Middleton being one of the worst pitchers in the bullpen?
Fuck this garbage.

Rengifo, Ward, or Thiass to the Rockies for Jon Gray.

2020 iteration of Chris Stratton.

You mean Margo Robbie, right?

This started is so starved for pitching, I don't see show they can stick with the best position player available mantra they've held for so long.
Don't get me wrong, Jose Soriano and Chris Rodriguez are good pitching prospects, but it is absolutely LAUGHABLE that they are #1-2 in the Angels minor league system of pitchers. They should be more like #5-6 if you're doing your job right as GM and scouting director.
There's no coincidence that Griffin Canning was drafted in the second round and immediately emerged as the to pitching prospect in the system with the highest upside.
The Angels need to use their first and second picks next year to draft upside college starting pitchers. They should probably do that for the next couple drafts.