Hubs

Your numbers are just wrong. 
Angels First Month* records in Mike Scioscia era.
2016: 11-13
2015: 11-11
2014: 14-13
2013: 9-17
2012: 8-15
2011: 15-12
2010: 12-12
2009: 9-12
2008: 18-11
2007: 15-11
2006: 12-13
2005: 13-11
2004: 13-10
2003: 13-14
2002: 11-14 (started 6-14)
2001: 10-15
2000: 13-13
*April and March reg. season games
They've had a .500 record or better in 9 of 17 seasons. They've been within 3 games of .500 in 5 additional seasons, and had bad records in 2001, 2012, and 2013. That's it. 
 

Your numbers are just wrong. 
Angels First Month* records in Mike Scioscia era.
2016: 11-13
2015: 11-11
2014: 14-13
2013: 9-17
2012: 8-15
2011: 15-12
2010: 12-12
2009: 9-12
2008: 18-11
2007: 15-11
2006: 12-13
2005: 13-11
2004: 13-10
2003: 13-14
2002: 11-14 (started 6-14)
2001: 10-15
2000: 13-13
*April and March reg. season games
They've had a .500 record or better in 9 of 17 seasons. They've been within 3 games of .500 in 5 additional seasons, and had bad records in 2001, 2012, and 2013. That's it. 
 

This got off on a tangent. My original point is that so often I see that the Angels should trade Trout because they'll restock their farm. But time and time again it doesn't happen. A player like him is once or twice in a generation and you simply can't get enough value. They're might be enough in the Yankees system but it would neuter them as we would want all their stars. The Dodgers would have to start with Seager and Urias and probably 4 more prospects. It's not feasible to get that much and it simply doesn't ever work out for the team that trades the superstar.

Adams throws 96 MPH. 

Here let me buy you a hat ... you're welcome
 

I honestly believe that if we stay healthy the Angels are the division favorites as currently constructed.

I honestly believe that if we stay healthy the Angels are the division favorites as currently constructed.

Eric Young Jr. Is 6th or 7th on the OF depth chart on a minor league deal. You were advocating for him as a 4th OF. 
 

Eric Young Jr. Is 6th or 7th on the OF depth chart on a minor league deal. You were advocating for him as a 4th OF. 
 

I am in the minority but I would love a Navy Blue Alternate Jersey. The periwinkle jersey's sucked, but the 90's CA jersey's looked awesome. I'd love to see one of those for Home Sundays. 

I am in the minority but I would love a Navy Blue Alternate Jersey. The periwinkle jersey's sucked, but the 90's CA jersey's looked awesome. I'd love to see one of those for Home Sundays. 

I am in the minority but I would love a Navy Blue Alternate Jersey. The periwinkle jersey's sucked, but the 90's CA jersey's looked awesome. I'd love to see one of those for Home Sundays. 

I'm pro Wieters, for 2017 and 2018. A three year deal is a long shot in January for a player like him though. And they believe that Taylor Ward is a top-3 prospect in their system. He's 23 for the upcoming season, and 24 for 2018. We'll see him in some capacity next season. He may not establish himself as the starter until 2019 or 2020, but he'll be here in the 2018 season. 
I'd say Wieters is a solid pickup for a 2 year deal averaging less than 10M per season. If you look at what other catchers got, he's not going to get anywhere near the $17M he was paid last year. I'd take a 1 year deal in a league you are familiar with, to try and reestablish the $20M per season Value you thought you'd have. 
It wasn't that long ago he was thought of as one of the, if not the top catcher in the AL. But that injury in 2014, really hurt his value.

Hamilton signed 5/125. Then upon the trade, the deal was restructured to account for a lack of state income tax in Texas, the Angels saved $20M against the luxury tax. Hamilton gave up about 6M in Salary and the Rangers paid about $7. Where the other $7 in savings came from I have no idea. I guess the league minimum salary goes for the Rangers, that's 1.6? and If the savings was equal against the tax, his AAV would be $21, but since 13 and 14 had already elapsed, then does it go to the last three years? What was the contract rewritten as? 
It's confusing but save it to say, he counts around $22 M towards the AAV. 

As Late January approaches, his contract numbers will go down.
And I think the Angels can squeeze him in. I (and Cot's) approximate the Angels current payroll at 160ish million, including the 40-man guys and close to 170 with the other obligations. But I think if they signed him to a 2 year deal with a lower AAV, they could squeeze him in under the payroll budget and under the cap.

Exactly. And you know, he may actually like being on the West Coast. When his contract is up, he will have lived more of his adult life in California than anywhere else. Maybe he wants to play on the East Coast, but you never saw fan speculation or articles about Jeter wanting to go home to the Tigers or other elite once in a generation players wanting to go home away from the East Coast. Once in a blue moon, maybe someone wants to play nearer to home, but usually that is the end of their career, not the beginning. Kobe never was rumored to play in Philly. How come we haven't seen Harper coming to the West coast articles? (There isn't a team in Vegas, obviously). 
And lets not forget who else would be affected by this contract "law" - If they count the minors as one year deals, which I seriously doubt would work, as they are not the same type of deal as a major league deal, but even so -- Sonny Gray, Bumgartner, Posey, Kershaw, Richards, Etc.
Why don't we see this as the headline? Answer --> This all about trying to speculate about Trout as a Yankee, Met, Red Sock, or Phillie. That's what its about.

Bottom line is he signed an extension, when he didn't have to, in 2014, which gave his rights away for his first three seasons of free agency. He wouldn't have done that if he didn't like playing here or wanted to be a free agent. 

Stop the Trout Panic. 

You want really difficult predictions, correct?
1. Danny Espinosa strikes out less than 100 times, has a .290 BA.
2. Calhoun breaks out, Jimmy Edmonds style : .307 BA, .390 OBP, .510 SLG. (that's going to be worth 5-7 WAR in right field).
3. Cron hits 50 HR to lead the team. 
4. Richards has a sub 2 ERA with 20 wins.
5. Skaggs has a sub 3 ERA with 18 wins.
6. Bedrosian has a sub 1.5 ERA with 45 holds.
 

Last year's starting staff and immediate depth:
Richards, Heaney, Santiago, Shoe and Weaver
Depth - Trop, Wilson, Skaggs and Smith.  
2016 AAA rotation opening day:
Smith, Yunesky Maya (30+yo minor league journeyman), Zach Nuding (26yo minor league journeyman with bad peripherals), Skaggs, Chris Jones (27yo minor league journeyman with bad peripherals).  
Even with all of our injuries, the only guy on the starting AAA roster to come up and help the big club was Skaggs.  That also includes AA where, of course, no one was capable of contributing.  
For a huge chunk of the season, two spots in our rotation was filled with two guys who weren't even in the org to start the season.  And another by a guy that was projected to be our #5/6.  
 
This year's starting staff and immediate depth:
Richards, Shoe, Skaggs, Nolasco, Chavez
Depth - Meyer, Smith, Campos, Banuelos, Pounders, Scribner, O'Grady, Ramirez, Kipper, Lamb and Blackford.  I am probably forgetting some.  
My guess is that the AAA rotation will be:
Meyer, Smith, Campos, Banuelos, Ponders.  Which is very interesting because pretty much all of those other guys deserve a chance to fill a rotation spot.  
 
Part of the reason I bring this up is that while it seemed like we had some capable depth in the AAA pen, it was really a collection of older failed relievers with almost no upside talent.  Guys like Alburquerque, David Carpenter, Jose Valdez, Javy Guerra, Ramon Martinez, Lucas Luetge, AJ Achter etc.  
Most of the guys who are rotation depth are guys who have upside but haven't been able to make it work for whatever reason.  Mostly because of injury.  You know what those guys end up being pretty good at?  Relieving.  
So by creating rotation depth, Eppler has also created pen depth.  
Right now it looks like our pen will be Street, Bedrosian, Guerra, Bailey, Alvarez, Morin and maybe Ramirez from that bunch with depth as Middleton, Mahle, De Los Santos, Paredes, Yates, and Blake Parker.  But you've also got Campos, Meyer, Pounders, Banuelos, and Lamb who also have good stuff.  Probably better stuff than any of our other pen depth.  
So i've just sold myself on the fact that the pen is going to be better than expected.  Granted, it's going to be the typical april/may tryout, but by the time June rolls around, It will be good.  BTW, watch out for Kevin Grendell.  
 

The Angels obviously believe strongly in Ward. His power and average dipped in full season ball, but he is still the catcher of the future. I wouldn't be surprised if he started at AA, but also could start at A+ again, with a promotion to AA and then to AAA if he does well. We could see him in 2018.

Ettin, I did miss that graph, sorry. Still, you had put out suggestions for free agency and trade in both your left field and second base primers. Seeing as Catcher is the other offensive black hole position, I just wanted to see another out of the box option. Thanks for the good articles.
To revisit your other points, I disagree completely that Montero is even available, let alone could be had for Street. Schwaber is not going to catch full time in the majors so they need backstop depth. And you can bet Epstein and Maddon value his defense highly.
I also wouldn't get that caught up in surplus value, sure people look at that, but that is only one facet of a potential trade. I think they will go offensive if they get another catcher, likely via free agency when ST gets closer and they can get a deal. Nick Hundley would fit, even though he is rated as a poor pitch framer. His offense slipped a bit in 2016, but had a career year in 2016, so if he is available for a one year deal to split time with Maldonado, Perez can always be stashed at AAA. I doubt this happens, but I think it's more likely than a trade for Wolters or Montero.
Hundley's bat, if he hit like he did in 2015 would more than make up for his lack of defensive skills with his bat. He was above average in 2016, for the catcher spot too. And he is as you said, left handed.

While I understand why the Angels would be interested in Miguel Monetero, the trade of Huston Street makes zero sense for either team. While it's true both players are on coming off a below average year, a closer with a 6+ ERA has zero trade value, even for a low tier hitting catcher, albeit one with an outstanding pitch framing ability. 
Cron is appealing to Colorado, and Wolters appeals to us, sure, but asking the Rockies to throw in a solid if underperforming lefty reliever and pay part of his salary is sadly dreaming. If they don't want to pay him, they can simply cut him. Therefore, he has value.
Finally, while I see this article seems to be focused on pitch framing and defensive backstops, there is no mention of getting any offense from the position. While some players may not make sense from a defensive point of view, they may from an offensive point of view, so you should consider whether they want to add offense at the position. Normally, you have examined multiple options at each position of doubt, but in this one, you clearly went one way and stuck to your guns. 
The Angels OPS at the catcher position last year was a measely .648 with a low .271 OBP. Adding offense, especially OBP may also be a consideration at the Catcher position, so familiar names like Geovany Soto or Chris Iannetta, or someone like Nick Hundley or someone else more offensive minded may get passing interest if they remain unsigned closer to the middle of February. Soto and Iannetta are not far removed from having positive defensive ratings and even Hank Conger is around if they want another defensive bat. 

PECOTA has been the most consistently close in the last few years. ZIPS has probably been the closest over the largest sample size.   Thing is there are roadmaps to follow when taking these projections into consideration.  Guys coming off injuries or shortened seasons are wild cards, as are players at the young and old points of the age spectrum.  Younger players seem to have the wildest range of performance and unpredictability due to breakouts.  Pretty much all the projection models come closest when looking at guys with 5 plus years of MLB service time and 150+ game seasons.

Trout may not want to play on the East Coast. He left home at 17 and played in Arizona, Cedar Rapids, Arkansas, Salt Lake, and then in California. He's going to have been out of the East Coast for at least 7 months a year for 10-12 years when he is a free agent. He may not want to go back to the East Coast.
 

I don't know why but I feel like this is a World Series bound team. I will probably be 110% wrong but screw it I say go all the way.