Hubs

I think that they may move some players we wouldn’t expect. But manager first obviously. I could see them signing Rendon if they had to move some of the infield capital in a trade for a starter. Fletcher I think stays but Rengifo, Thaiss, etc. may be dangled in a trade for a starter. I think teams who need infield help will try to pry one of these guys loose. And it won’t be Simmons. Signing a guy to a big contract like Rendon would be hard but if Arte wants to spend, and Eppler can get a second starter for around $12-17 and unload say half of Cozarts contract in said deal, without giving up Adell? I may be dreaming and it may cost Marsh or Jackson... in addition to infielders like Rengifo. Youre not getting Thor for that... but there would be a pitcher a available for that package. But adding $75M in contracts would be hard.

7 / 217,777, 777.77 or 6/ 210.

I wonder if Ausmus will resurrect his career down there. LOL.

I know I said the Angels needed two pitchers, before Skaggs passed (RIP), but I don't think they go for three free agents. I don't think they add three starters either. The 2020 SP depth chart is gonna look like this: 1. Cole (Hopefully) 2. Ohtani 3. Odorrozzi, Archer, Bumgarner, Syndergaard, Other Trade Target, etc. 4. Heaney 5. Canning 6. Pena / JC Ramirez (they'll work these two out of the pen as well) And in AAA 7. Sandoval 8. Suarez 9. Peters 10. Barria 11. Beasley The RP: 1. Robles 2. Buttrey 3. Middleton 4. Bedrosian 5. Meija 6. Pena 7. Bard 8. JC Ramirez 9. N. Ramirez 10. Cole 11. Jewell I figure with 26 men, they'll keep 12 position players, 12 pitchers and 2 two-way players.

Middleton is arbitration eligible? I don't think he will be a super 2, and I don't think he quite has three years of service. I think he just misses it. Not a huge savings, but him getting 600k, instead of 1M, makes a small difference. I actually think Noe Ramirez is in the same boat, as well. Tropeano is likely non-tendered. Sorry, he's been bad, and not been reliable injury wise. He's gone. The only guys I see coming back from the arbitration are: Heaney ($5), LaStella ($4), Bedrosian ($2), Robles ($5), Goodwin ($3), Smith ($2) & maybe Stassi ($2). Players not on the 26-man, but on the 40 man get a smaller than major league minimum contract. They're only paid for the time they spend in the majors at that rate. If you consider that currently 11 guys say have larger contracts than the minimum, via a salary guarantee (102) or arbitration (23), that means 11-15 guys (depending on FA signings) will make the minimum, plus 14 more guys at or around $150k, plus the benefits. That will be around $7+$2+$15= $24 M. Add $23 M to $102, and you're already at $125, Then add the $24M above and you're at $149. Now this is Luxury Tax Payroll, not actual payroll. Still, it means they can add up to $59M in AAV contracts before they go over the luxury tax. In 2021, they go down by $20M in AAV, and in 2022, it goes down another $24. So, I don't think they're really risking going over the tax long term. But say they go out and add two premier starters and a catcher. Blowing past the Luxury tax line. Cole's gonna get say $32 for 7, for say $224M. The AAV is $32. Say they add Bumgarner, at a $24 for 5 at 120M They add Grandal at $17M for 3 years. They'd be way over the cap for at least $15 M in 2020, but then would be close to the cap in 2021 and 2022. Ohtani is going to get more expensive, and Simmons will need a new contract, but Pujols drops off after 2021, and Upton after 2022. So they'd be over the cap for a max of 2 years.

Especially if the Dodgers go to their third straight World Series and win.

I expect another 2011 type winter to be honest. I think Arte understands that the Pujols contract didn't live up to the value, and neither did Hamilton. CJ Wilson had injuries. That won't stop him from pursuing top of the class free agents. I also think there will be a pretty big shake up with the regulars. There will be trades. The rotation needs help. They need a catcher with some offense. Upton could be on the move, but I doubt it. However, I thought they'd be fine with Aybar, and they traded for Simmons a few years back, so who knows.

Except for Torri Hunter, Vernon Wells, Pujols and Wilson, Hamilton, etc.

White was objectively terrible. His communication just wasn't there, without an established manager or another pitching coach to work it through with. I don't think the standard stats really show how bad he was working with starters, because of the opener.

I am surprised by Paul, but I could see Maddon or whomever they hire wanting to hire his own staff. I think Ebel is a prime candidate to return...and maybe Nagy. Nagy was a good pitching coach.

The Angels need permission to talk to Maddon, Yes. Can Maddon have dinner with an old friend? Yes. Can Moreno unofficially offer him the job? Yes. Is it tampering? Yes. Does Theo care, No. Did they mutually agree to part ways? Yes.

I do not believe Eppler was there, this would've likely been dinner at Moreno's home, or some sort of private club.

You're assuming they didn't talk when Maddon was still manager of the Cubs. As in there wasn't any tampering. His contract was expiring after the 2019 season, so he was essentially a lame duck. He didn't have a team option, so he was essentially a free agent to be. He knew he was unlikely to be brought back, and furthermore, he knew he didn't want to come back if there was a chance to come home to Anaheim. The Cubs were in San Diego for a 4 game weekday series from 9-9 to 9-12. They then went back to Chicago for a weekend set. The Angels were at home. They had a day off on 9/12. Is it tampering? Yes. Sure. Does it happen all the time? Also, yes.

Twice Previously? 2002 it happened.

The new trade deadline and stuff changed this. You used to be able to, but it was frowned upon. Now I don't think you can until the day after the World Series ends, if it involves anyone on either teams 40-man roster.

It really was. And not just because of losing Skaggs. I was excited and optimistic after Scioscia's first year, and a little stressed after his second. Ausmus just looks like a bad manager and this staff, which still had some talent...was godawful under Doug White. I really want a managerial and coaching staff change.

Cole could look to break Greinke's 34.4, and MadBum could easily get 25. I think $50 is more likely, too. I think Cole will get what David Price got, and I think Bumgarner will get say 22.5 / 5. Whomever gives him that extra year, whether it's 4 or 5th year's gonna get him. He seems like the guy that values stability. The two guys are only a year apart. Cole is 29, and MadBum is 30. MadBum does have more years and innings on his arm, but that and a slow recovery from Shoulder Injury in 2017 is why he's not the top guy on the market. So I could see 18 for MB in his first year and 27 in Cole's first, but I could also see AAV's closer to 55 or 60 for the pair.

While I'd love three starters, I think they're gonna get two. I just hope they go after Mad Bum and Cole. Those two will cost somewhere around 60M. I think if they backload the first two years, they can squeeze it in. But they may also exercise Calhoun's option and try to trade him for a starter.

Jeff, if he pitches once a week, say 25 starts, instead of the 27 Sundays or whatever day, wouldn't he be closer to 140-160 IP? I mean, you have to think he's gonna be 5 IP per start minimum, probably closer to 6 IP avg. And If he starts as the DH 3.5 times per week, gets 5 PA a game, 3.5 x 5 x 27 = around 470 PA.

Machete is terrible offensively, he had a few hot months then nothing. Stassi seems built the same. Smith is under arbitration control and likely won't get a huge raise so he'll be back. Grandal is a decent option. The power would be nice. The infield is crowded, especially with Cozart and La Stella coming back. Calhoun is going to hit 30 HR. I don't think they'll cut him. They may trade him, if they can find a suitor, but otherwise he might be back for one more run in Anaheim. The budget pretty much gets capped after that for offensive help.

Among arms unlikely to be back, Trevor Cahill leads the way with 69 runs allowed in almost 95 innings (6.56 runs per 9 innings). Matt Harvey allowed 48 runs in just under 60 innings, (7.24 runs per 9 innings). Subtracting those two and replacing with Gerritt Cole is certainly going to help, as he would've allowed less than half the runs those two did if he were here this year, and replicating his Houston numbers. Luis Garcia, started the season horribly, but has had a hot stretch lately and lowered his ERA to 4.31 and (31 runs in 56.1 IP). Still, he's not likely back. I don't see Tropeano (15 runs in 13.2 IP) staying healthy and returning. Chris Stratton (28 runs in 29.1 IP) was horrible too. Cody Allen was bad (16 runs in 23 IP) That's a total of 207 runs in 276.2 IP. A runs per game of 6.73. Add Taylor Cole, Jaime Barria, and Jake Jewell ....who all have a possibility of returning, at Cole's 34 runs in 45.1 IP, Barria's 50 runs in 70.1 IP, Jewell's 15 runs in 19.2 IP...the number increased to 306 runs in 412 IP. That's 6.68 Runs Per 9 IP. The rest of the team, including Suarez at 6.45 ERA (52 runs in 68.1 IP), Anderson's 27 runs in 41.1 IP... ends up being significantly lower. Those two are likely to be back, but should improve their performances, I'd expect. 878.2 IP and 464 runs allowed, which is a 4.75 runs per game. Addition by subtraction will help, but adding in Cole, Ohtani, and maybe someone like Syndergaard, would go a long way to dropping that 4.75 Runs per 9 IP to low 4's...which would put them in the playoffs.

Ausmus has done such a terrible job with this pitching staff, I don't know if it can be fixed in one off-season. The worst pitching season in Angels history came in 1996, when they gave up 943 runs under Marcel Lachemann / McNamara / and Joe Maddon. They averaged 5.857 runs allowed. In 1994, they allowed 660 runs in just 115 games, for an almost as bad 5.739 runs per game, also under Lachemann and Buck Rodgers. The third worst season was Scioscia's first, at 5.364 runs per game in 2000, when they surprisingly went 82-80. They allowed 869 runs. The fourth worst season was Terry Collins' last at 826 runs allowed, 5.099 in 1999. Those are the only 4 seasons in club history they've allowed over 5 runs per game. Except of course, this one. The current team might edge out 2000 as they currently have allowed 770 runs in just 145 games for a 5.310 runs allowed per game. They could easily be third worst pitching season in Angels history. Last year, in a season where they lost 7 starters to injury, They allowed just 722 runs in 162 games, for a 4.457 runs per game average. That means Ausmus and White, with some of the same guys, and some new ones, have been nearly a run worse than Scioscia's injury decimated 2018 team. This is not just the juiced ball. They need to cut the runs allowed by nearly 200 in 2020. All the investment should go to pitching. I might bring back Calhoun. They need a catcher. Other than that, it's all pitching, pitching, pitching.

You have to look at the Angels pitching staff as a mix of veterans, peak age guys, and youth. This season, we lost a peak age guy (RIP #45), the veterans didn't work out, and the youth has had to carry the load. Next year, you are probably looking at a Veteran FA signing / Trade, and a Prime-Era FA signing / Trade if they can do it. Then they'll go with one peak age guy they have in the rotation now, in Heaney. And add younger starters in Canning, Ohtani, Sandoval, and Suarez. If they go to 6 starters, or even 5.5, I don't know if they plan on signing two guys. I'd prefer it, but don't know. Getting Cole would certainly help this rotation, but so would Bumgarner or Keuchel. Just a guy who, like Heaney, can go out and give you 30+ starts. Ohtani is going to get 24-27 starts. That's say, 86, if Cole gives you 32, and Heaney gives you 30. That leaves 76 games for Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, Pena, and JC, plus whomever else. I think the young guys are all going to be on the SLC shuttle, with Pena and JC filling in, too. I can see Pena / JC starting say 16, and the other three young ones averaging 20. One of those three could be dealt too. The opener skews the starting numbers, but how many starts do you think leads the team? It's Canning's 18. Pena leads in IP with 96. They need two guys to give them 30+ starts. In their last playoff year, they had that with Richards and Santiago both hitting 32+ with 207 and 180 IP in the mid 3.5 ERA range. Weaver and Shoemaker had 26 and 24, with ERA's in the mid 4's, Wilson had 21, in the high 3's, and Heaney had 18, in the mid 3's. If they can repeat or exceed this, they'll be in the playoffs. Cole at 33 starts, with a sub 3 ERA would be fantastic. Ohtani at 27 starts with a sub 3 ERA would be fantastic. Heaney at 28 starts with a high 3's to low 4's would be great. Canning at 27 starts with a mid 3's to high 3''s would be great. Suarez/Sandoval/Barria/Pena/JC Ramirez/Peters with 47 starts at a combined 4.20 ERA would be fantastic. Don't see room for another veteran starter, unless someone gets bumped or traded.

I do not think it's Cole or Bust. Bumgarner and Ryu are legit frontline starter options too. Bumgarner had a rough start to the year, but his numbers are legit and he is only 1 year older than Cole. He has already turned 30, whereas Cole won't turn 29 until next month. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml Ryu is 32. Next year is his age 33 season. Odorrozzi, Keuchel, Etc. are other options, and there are a lot of other midrange options. I can't see the Angels committing 3+ years to anyone except Cole, Bumgarner, Ryu, and Odorrozzi, and maybe Miley and If the Braves don't pick up his option, Julio Tehran. I could also see a trade in the off season for pitching.

I thought they could've competed for a wild card because I saw this offensive surge happening. They're gonna top 800 runs scored likely, which I figured even with a bad pitching year like they had in 2018, they could compete for both wild cards, and if Houston losing Keuchel and teh other guys they lost, they could compete for the division on the outside. Last year they gave up 722 runs, and scored 721. This year they're going to score over 800 but also allow over 800. I hoped Cahill and Harvey could give us 50 starts in the 4.2-4.5 ERA range. I hoped that Allen could return to 2017 form. Instead all three have been objectively terrible, and they lost their best starter to a tragic in season death, so this season's pitching has been 100-200 runs worse than what I hoped for. Signing two good starters in the offseason to go with two returning 2018 starters in Heaney and Ohtani, and two returning 2019 starters in Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, and Barria is a recipe for success. I'd like Bumgarner and Cole, if only because I think Bumgarner commands less years, and Cole is the best starter available. I'd also consider Cole and Keuchel. If they can give one guy 5 or 6 years, in Cole, and the other guy 3-4 years the rotation lines up for the next 4 years like this: 2020: Cole (age 29 season), Ohtani (age 25 season), Bumgarner (age 30 season), Heaney (age 29 season), Canning (Age 24 season), Suarez (Age 22 Season) 2021: Cole (age 30 season), Ohtani (age 26 season), Bumgarner (age 31 season), Heaney (age 30 season), Canning (Age 25 season), Suarez (Age 23 Season) 2022: Cole (age 31 season), Ohtani (age 27 season), Bumgarner (age 32 season), Canning (Age 26 season), Suarez (Age 24 Season) 2023: Cole (age 32 season), Ohtani (age 28 season), Canning (Age 27 season), Suarez (Age 25 Season), Rookie/FA, Rookie/FA Looks good to me.