Hubs

I think it comes down to calling them WINS above Replacement. If they had just stuck with RUNS against replacement, we'd not have this argument as often. Wins do not = 10 runs created.

My biggest issue with WAR is the fictional replacement player's stats. They are not defined anywhere, except to say that a team with all replacement level players would win around 52-53 games. That's not enough. I want to see what a 0 WAR player looks like in terms of average, on-base percentage, slugging, wOBA, etc. Secondly I don't like positional player adjustments. Where a player plays defensively has zero effect on his ability offensively…just in context to this fictional replacement player who plays all 8 positions. So why take away runs? dWAR is subjective, true, which means I want to see offensive stats and defensive stats used more often in conjunction with WAR. I also don't understand why oWAR and dWAR don't add up to be a players WAR. It comes down to positional adjustment being used twice, but why is it used in offensive WAR? If my Second Baseman is my best hitter (Yankees) and my first baseman is as good offensively, why don't they have the similar oWAR? It penalizes players who provide offense at traditional offensive positions, and credits guys who have good years at traditionally bad offensive positions. Here's the best example of what I am talking about. Ben Zobrist plays multiple positions for the Tampa Bay Rays. In 2011 he had a .269 average with a .353 OBP, a .469 slugging, 46 2B, 6 3B, 20 HR, 19 SB. He struck out 128 times and walked just 77 times. He played 131 times at 2nd, 38 in the OF and 3 at DH. In 2012, Zobrist hit .270, with a .377 OBP, a .471 slugging, 39 2B, 7 3B, 20 HR, 14 2B. He struck out less, just 103 times and walked more at 97 times. The years are pretty comparable offensively, 2012 being a bit better than 2011 in most areas. The only lead for 2011 was SB and 2B. Except as a 2B, his nearly identical stats are better than when he played 47 games at SS, 58 games at 2B, and 71 games in the OF in 2012? His defense wasn't as good, primarily because of his time at short, where he was still pretty good with 6 errors in 47 games…and he played more at a traditional power position in the OF (33 games more). How then is a superior offensive season have a lower oWAR? Because of where he played. Which makes zero sense. His defensive WAR went way down from 3.2 in 2011 to 0.4 last year, when he was arguably more valuable for being able to play SS, 2B, and the OF. He didn't play any of the positions badly, but to say he was worth three less wins 8.5 in 2011 to 5.5 in 2012 is ridiculous. 5 less steals, 7 less doubles, and a few more errors do not make a 3 win difference in real life, but apparently they do. His fielding contributions as an OF and playing some short should not have made that big of a difference, but they do. I'd rather see the positional adjustment removed from the formula, use offensive numbers as offensive numbers, then provide a fielding WAR that an be added to a team to add or subtract to get a players total WAR.

Kendrick is comfortable hitting lower in the order. Callaspo had a lower OBP last year than 12 of the 19 qualifying 3rd basemen. His slugging was the lowest and his OPS was second to last. His average was 15th. He scored the third fewest runs, 17th in 2B, and was tied for 16th of 19 in HR. The guy has not been what everyone seems to think he is, an OBP machine who plays good defense. His 53 walks are a low total, granted this team doesn't walk alot, but he's not putting up the 100 walks and 30-40 HR that justify a low average. His career shows plenty of evidence to support that 2011 was an outlier. He's more likely to hit .250/.330/.360 again than .280/.365/.375. Callaspo actually does hit well against lefties, so I'd be fine with him in the #2 spot, but I don't even think he should play against right handers. His defense is an asset yes, but not if the team has 4 extreme fly ball starters. I like Aybar in the spot due to his .290 average, which is 4% more hits than Callaspo, and while he will likely walk 20 times less, the OBP will then be about the same. Aybar will get .50 points higher slugging, which is more doubles, more triples, and similar home run totals. Aybar also doesn't show a dramatic split against lefties or righties and killed the ball in the #2 spot last year. Seeing more fastballs isn't a huge positive for a really patient hitter like Callaspo but for a guy trying to hit the ball the way Aybar does, that's a positive. Yet I feel that the guy for the long run in the #2 spot is Bourjos. He is about to be 26, with one successful year starting full time and two other years where he didn't hit well. Okay, but his speed is a bigger asset than most believe. He's been great this spring, posting a .545 On Base Percentage. Yes it's only spring and yes it's only 11 PA, but 4 hits, 3 walks, is pretty good to start. Bourjos' good year in 2011, he has BABIP's of .415, .243, .411, .364, .333, and .290 in each of the six months. I do not expect him to have a .400 BABIP, but averaging a .360 BABIP would be great. What that would mean is that he gets a hit 36% of the time when the ball is put in play. Should he walk 50 times and hit 15 HR to go along with 100 strikeouts that would result in a line like: 650 PA, 600 AB, 174 hits, .290 average. His OBP then would be around that same .360, assuming he gets hit by a pitch as often. Plus he'll steal 30+ bases, And if he serves up a similar slugging percentage, he'd end up with 30 2B, 10-15 3B and 10-15 HR. All of these are better numbers than Callaspo has shown in his career. And to top it off, Bourjos's defense will really matter. It should be Bourjos and Aybar to start the year, with Bourjos being the guy there down the stretch. Or as Lyle Spencer put up, Trout in the #2 spot and Bourjos leading off. Not traditional, but to face 2-3-4-5 MT, AP, JH, and MT…that's a murderers row.

Oh how I love this news. Of course, then Luis Jimenez had to have two fielding errors the other day, but now is your chance Luis. Take advantage of the fattie and seize the job!

U-Verse is the best out there, TWC sucks, DirecTV sucks, Dish was horrible. I'm happy with them, except for this.

Yeah… me too..

I wrote a much longer post that didn't post when I walked away for a minute and my browser refreshed... But i'll quickly re-write that these projections would end up with Trout having around 365 total bases, Pujols around 350, and Hamilton around 315 based on the playing time I estimate for each to get. That translates (assuming these averages) into 50 2B for Trout 10 triples for Trout and 30 HR. Considering Trout had 27,8, & 30 last year in less games, that's pretty impressive. If his ratio of doubles/triples/homeruns stayed closer to his 2012 (.383 slugging) numbers, but he played more games, he'd actually be closer to 31 2B, 10 triples, and 35 HR. I think we'll see a dramatic increase in doubles and triples in his second year and his HR may actually fall off a bit. Pujols looks like he'll hit 52 doubles and 34 HR based on the playing time I estimated. Hamilton looks like he too will go 35 doubles and 35 HR. Or 45 /30. Trumbo's numbers and Bourjos numbers look a little light to me. The other three just look a little low on average….