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By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer

For the Angels starting rotation, 2019 was not a kind year.

Unfortunately, the Halos starters were last out of all 30 MLB teams in total Wins Above Replacement (WAR) with a measly 3.3 WAR. Other peripheral indicators support the poor performance. For reference, the Nationals led all of baseball with a total 21.4 WAR.

So what do the Angels do to fix this situation?

For reference, the table below shows a leader board of qualified starters, sorted by Wins Above Replacement on a per G (WAR/G) basis, over the last three seasons:

By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer

To classify this off-season as the most important one in Eppler's career, to-date, is not an understatement.

Moreno has not yet publicly extended Billy's contract, which means 2020 is the last year under his current deal and he could be looking for a new position in the coming months if the off-season does not go as planned and/or the Angels get off to a terrible start in the upcoming season.

On top of that Arte has expressed a clear need for this team to push itself into a new window of contention after years of languishing in mediocrity in the A.L. West standings. Moreno wants to see action (fans in the seats too) and is helping Eppler's situation by promising to increase team payroll for 2020 and the acquisition of an experienced skipper in Joe Maddon (Billy might dispute the latter but the author's gut feeling is that Arte made the right move here).

So in order to understand the areas that need improvement (if they are not clear already) let us take a look at how the starting rotation, bullpen, defense, and position players (against both left and right handed pitching) fared in 2019:

2019 Team Starting Rotation Wins Above Replacement (WAR)

Welcome to this year’s version of the AngelsWin Top 30 Prospects. As with last year, it is a group effort: the following is a composite list of several AngelsWin.com members and writers, with eight participants this year. The method is simple: the list is an average of eight lists. The benefit of taking such an approach is that not only do we tend to even each other’s biases out a bit, but we also get a range of approaches: from relying mostly on stats, reading other scouting reports, and eye-witness scouting.

Unlike last year, I’m going to include the age the player will be for the 2020 season, meaning how old they are on July 1, 2020.

A note on Ranking Trends: it is simply the different rankings by the eight participants. Most such lists don’t include the “raw wiring,” but as with last year I thought it would be interesting for people see because the range of numbers say a lot about the prospect. Prospects with a relatively narrow range tend to be more predictable, while those with a wider range may also have a wider range of outcomes and greater volatility.

Finally, a big thanks to Scotty Allen (aka "Second Base") for providing the insightful Best Known For quotes.

On to the list…

Astros:
Verlander - 5.7 WAR
Greinke - 2.9 WAR
Urquidy - 2.2 WAR
McCullers - 3.0 WAR
Armenteros - 0.8 WAR
Top 5 total - 14.6 WAR

A's
Fiers - 1.2 WAR
Montas - 3.0 WAR
Bassitt - 2.2 WAR
Luzardo - 2.5 WAR
Manaea - 1.6 WAR
Top 5 total - 10.5 WAR

Mariners 
Gonzales - 2.1 WAR
Kikuchi - 1.6 WAR
Sheffield - 0.8 WAR
Dunn - 1.0 WAR
Swanson - 0.9 WAR
Top 5 total - 6.4 WAR

Rangers 
Minor - 3.1 WAR
Lynn - 4.1 WAR
Allard - 1.5 WAR
Burke - 1.0 WAR
Jurado - 0.9 WAR
Top 5 total - 10.6 WAR

Angels 
Cole - 6.4 WAR
Wheeler - 3.3 WAR
Heaney - 3.1 WAR
Canning - 2.0 WAR
Ohtani - 2.8 WAR
Top 5 total - 17.6 WAR

Just focusing on the SP available...


https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?pos=sp

Pineda, Gibson --  both those guys looks like good gets.   Gibson in particular looks like a candidate to improve -- GB% over 50, in front of a bad Minnesota defense probably contributed to his inflated BABIP (3rd worst in MLB).  The dude, also had a strand rate of 67.50 -- which was the 4th worst in MLB.

In other words..   Kyle Gibson had the third worst defensive showing behind him, coupled with the fourth worst BP support.

Both guys are being projected for two years deals, one at 11 mil per, the other at 10 mil.  Both are projected to be 2+ fWAR pitchers...    While Cole should be the number one target, there are solid options beyond Wheeler for that 2nd spot.

Top 50 MLB prospects 2020: Ranking Wander Franco, Jo Adell and the rest of baseball's best young players

2. Jo Adell, OF, Angels

There's a case to be made that Jo Adell is the best non-teenage prospect in baseball. That case begins with the fact that Adell is a fantastic athlete. Here, watch him do some plyometrics then check back. Done? Good. Adell can hit the ectoplasm out of the baseball just as well as he can ghost around the basepaths or in the outfield. He might finish his development with four tools that project as plus or better -- that isn't a common profile. Talking about only the pluses with top prospects can get boring, but there are few minuses to nitpick with Adell. The main one is that he's prone to swinging and missing. He struck out in roughly a third of his plate appearances in Triple-A over a 27-game stretch. But it's worth noting that he fanned a lot during his initial exposure to Double-A, only to return this year and hit .308/.390/.553 in 182 plate appearances -- with, it should be known, a greatly reduced K rate. If you want a second negative about Adell it's that he's yet to appear in 100 games in a season. (He finished with 99 in 2018.) A third? Uh ... he might never be on your favorite team. Otherwise, Adell is a very good prospect. You're going to like watching him play baseball. You should get the chance to do sometime in 2020.

36. Brandon Marsh, OF, Angels

Although Brandon Marsh may lack Adell's upside, he's a high-quality prospect himself -- one who could well reach the majors in the 2020 season, perhaps alongside Adell. Marsh missed most of June due to injury, but still appeared in 96 Double-A games this season. He hit .300/.383/.428 and delivered seven home runs and 18 steals (on 23 tries). You probably get the gist from those numbers that he can contribute across the board. He can also run, field, and throw, and he might learn to better leverage his raw power in the coming years, too. At minimum, Marsh should develop into a most-days starter in either corner.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/top-50-mlb-prospects-2020-ranking-wander-franco-jo-adell-and-the-rest-of-baseballs-best-young-talent/

OC Register: Eppler open to trading youngsters for pitching

According to Maria Torres of the LA Times, GM Billy Eppler said Tony La Russa is joining the front office as a special assistant of baseball operations.



 



Here's the official press release from the Angels:







 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/astros-accused-of-hightech-signstealing-scheme-during-2017-championship-season-194631500.html

Mike Fiers outed them...

Here is a list of all Angels pitchers in 2019 who had a negative fWAR, with their innings pitched. I'll put it in spoilers, because its pretty long.

That's 572.1 Innings of -5.7 fWAR pitching. 

Now obviously it is unavoidable for even a good team to have some pitchers who produce negative WAR. Even the great Astros had -2.4 from negative fWAR pitchers. But here's the huge difference: those pitchers accounted for 136 IP. 

Meaning, the Angels had about 440 more innings than the Astros from pitchers below replacement level.

That the Angels pitching sucked in 2019 is nothing revelatory to anyone reading this, but I think this is a very important and informative angle on what needs to be done, and also gives us reason for hope for 2020. More on that in a bit.

If you want a team other than the Astros to compare, here are all 10 playoff teams:

That Rays number is particularly striking: they had almost no really bad pitchers.

Anyhow, there's a range there - and the World Series champs are last among the ten, but the big takeaway is that no playoff team had more than 258 innings of negative fWAR pitchers. Thus the Angels had at least twice as many negative fWAR innings as any playoff team, and about twice the fWAR. That illustrates one part of the improvement that needs to happen - the other part being that they have to replace those innings with good pitching, not just mediocre pitching.:

I know, I know. We've had prediction threads, we've had offseason wishlist threads, we've had what you want to see happen, what you think we'll see. Almost every thread recently has devolved into an 'offseason plan' thread at some point.

But what I'm hoping for this thread though is actually for the time being, no discussion, no debate, no arguments for or against, just a very simple list what you would do this offseason if you were GM in a quick, easy format.
I've included some of my reasoning and justifications, but utilized the 'spoiler' feature to keep those items hidden and to keep things concise.

The idea being we can revisit this later and discuss midseason/next offseason, I'm sure @Lou will help us all remember, and see how things went. 
Payroll Limits:
To keep things semi-realistic, we'll assume the Angels have about $145m committed following the recent guys who were cut. This figure takes into account:

Guaranteed contracts


$1m Kole Calhoun buyout (if you want to keep him, just add his salary back into the figure)


arbitration projections (Bour, Garcia, Trop are already removed)


minor league salaries for players not on the 40-man


benefits


salary for pre-arbitration players



The big unknown is we don't know how high Arte will lift payroll, but let's set a fairly high number as our 'limit' - around $195m/$200m - something that is unlikely, but not outside the realm of possibility. 
Arte's comments and hiring of Maddon and Callaway hint that he's fully intent on going for it this offseason, so we'll stretch this out to something pretty high to account for his penchant for big, expensive surprises. 

Try to imagine it is your money, that you're some amalgam of Arte and Eppler (Arteppler?). You have $50-60M to spend this offseason, but also need to consider the long-term plan. Some considerations:

2020: $50-60M to spend (allegedly)

2021: Cozart ($12.67M) comes off the books, but Simmons is a free agent and needs extension (probably). Also, La Stella is a free agent and it's Shohei's first year of arbitration. 

2022: Pujols ($30M) comes off the books (finally), but Upton gets really expensive ($28M); Heaney, Bedrosian, and Robles hit free agency.

2023: Upton ($28M) comes off the books.

The point being, you've got more money to work with this offseason, but then have to spend a bit in 2021 if you want to keep Simmons and Stella; more money comes off in 2022-23.

So the question: What's your plan of action and how much are you willing to spend on free agents? I know we've already talked about this general topic ad nauseum (and will continue to do so), but in this thread the emphasis is on maximum salary (years and total) for targeted players. 

Now obviously you can't answer this question in a vacuum, so offer a plan of action. I'll offer mine shortly in a reply post.

 

“We are 100% focused on Anaheim,” Angels spokeswoman Marie Garvey said. “Long Beach is on the back burner.”

https://www.latimes.com/sports/angels/story/2019-10-29/how-anaheim-might-help-pay-for-angels-stadium-development

Seems like the preference for the Angels is to remain in Anaheim. Which leaves two options for them... Build a new stadium or update the new one. I wouldn't mind them building a new one on the lot. 

How would you guys feel about a new stadium on the property?

When the word went out that AngelsWin.com was compiling a list of the 50 greatest moments in Angels history, my first thought, sadly enough, was to the tumultuous moments in our team’s history: I thought of how the Angels have always been second-class citizens living in the shadow of Chavez Ravine; or how we have spent most of our history grasping at greatness, yet coming up empty. I did not immediately think about the World Series win in 2002. But that’s the price I have paid for being a fan of this team, an experience I would not trade for anything.

But I quickly reminded myself that we have also had moments that rival those of any team in MLB history. Imagine compiling an All-Star team made up of past and present Angels. Heck, I would line them up against anyone. We would be able to choose a rotation from a pool of guys like Dean Chance, Clyde Wright, Chuck Finley and John Lackey. And who could forget about Nolan Ryan and Frank Tanana, a duo known as much for its dominance as it was for the inability of the rest of that staff to get wins? “Tanana and Ryan, and two days of cryin’,” anyone? And what about our offense? It seems almost unfair to only choose a starting nine: Albie Pearson, Don Baylor, Alex Johnson, Rod Carew, Reggie Jackson, Wally Joyner, Tim Salmon, Garret Anderson and Vlad Guerrero. I know I didn’t pick by position, but what would be the fun in that? The bottom line is that there was much to think about in comprising a list of 50 great moments and it’s because of all the great players we have been lucky to watch.

I must confess, I have had a peek at the final list and I have gotten chills just thinking about some of these incredible moments. And while some of the Angels baseball aficionados may not find this list filled with too many surprises, the point of this feature is to ultimately wipe the cobwebs from our memories and begin thinking about baseball again. Obviously, many of us were not around for all of these moments, but we have read about them so much that we sometimes imagine them in a manner that suggests we were in the front row!

The name of our team dates back as far as 1892, but this team as we have come to know and love them came into being when it was suggested to Gene Autry that he buy this new franchise.

For the next 50 days, AngelsWin.com will count down the top-50 moments in Angels history, with No. 1 being revealed on Sunday, March 30 — the eve of opening day. We hope the list brings back great memories, inspires debate and generally reminds Angels fans we have, in fact, had quite a lot to cheer about over the years.

In 1960, Autry purchased the franchise known as the Los Angeles Angels and in 1961 the team took the field for the first time. It seems only fitting that our list start there.

Per Jeff Fletcher: This is about to be officially announced.

The Angels are hiring Joe Maddon as their manager.

The Angels issued a statement, attributed to president John Carpino, denying they were aware of drug by Skaggs, or any player:

"We have never heard that any employee was providing illegal narcotics to any player, or that any player was seeking illegal narcotics 

"The Angels maintain a strict, zero-tolerance policy regarding the illicit use of drugs for both players and staff. Every one of our players must also abide by the MLB Joint Drug Agreement. 

"We continue to mourn the loss of Tyler and fully cooperate with the authorities as they continue their investigation."

Pick three new additions to the Angels ball club this offseason and win an awesome Mike Trout by the numbers piece of artwork.
 

Still cannot believe it has been 15 years. 

Per multiple reports we got Ohtani!!!

Great stuff!

Pujols planar fascia and Garret Richards UCL both being held together by chewing gum and some duct tape are really concerning.

I hope that one or more of you (I know @Mark68 reads it for sure! ) enjoyed the series. Every year I learn more and more and I find it therapeutic to go through the machinations of deciphering the financial and market details and sharing what I find.

Happy Holidays Angels fans and I think, in the end, we will be pleased with the on-field product in 2018 and beyond!

Go Angels!

His name is Billy. Not William. At least everything that the google machine produces about him has his given name as such. Not sure why that’s interesting. Maybe it’s because you’d expect it to be conventional but it’s not. Just like Billy. Billy the greenhorn. At least that was my first impression. He’s not Jerry Dipoto. Not some camera kind socal surfer with easy words. And that’s a good thing as it turns out. So instead of Billy short for William, he’s just Billy. The guy who inherited a sub .500 team with a bloated payroll, zero international spending capability, and the worst farm system in baseball history as well as an apparent upper extremity plague affecting any pitcher in a clubhouse radius. Apparently, the rally monkey is actually virus carrying anti-god from the movie outbreak. That inheritance also included Michael Nelson Trout. He’s pretty good.


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Considering the Gentlemen's club was axed and several other troll threads or contentious threads were deleted, over 1-million posts since 2013 is very impressive. 

Well done, gents. 

Scotch & Cigars on me if you're ever up here in Seattle. 

Great in-depth stuff on Heaney, @Brent Maguire.

Really informative. I'm as encouraged as you are. 

Great job on this, @Afternoon Angel!!!