Dochalo

How do we stack up if we got Cole and Wheeler

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Wheeler Cole.jpg

Astros:
Verlander - 5.7 WAR
Greinke - 2.9 WAR
Urquidy - 2.2 WAR
McCullers - 3.0 WAR
Armenteros - 0.8 WAR
Top 5 total - 14.6 WAR

A's
Fiers - 1.2 WAR
Montas - 3.0 WAR
Bassitt - 2.2 WAR
Luzardo - 2.5 WAR
Manaea - 1.6 WAR
Top 5 total - 10.5 WAR

Mariners 
Gonzales - 2.1 WAR
Kikuchi - 1.6 WAR
Sheffield - 0.8 WAR
Dunn - 1.0 WAR
Swanson - 0.9 WAR
Top 5 total - 6.4 WAR

Rangers 
Minor - 3.1 WAR
Lynn - 4.1 WAR
Allard - 1.5 WAR
Burke - 1.0 WAR
Jurado - 0.9 WAR
Top 5 total - 10.6 WAR

Angels 
Cole - 6.4 WAR
Wheeler - 3.3 WAR
Heaney - 3.1 WAR
Canning - 2.0 WAR
Ohtani - 2.8 WAR
Top 5 total - 17.6 WAR

Let's include a few teams that are likely playoff contenders for next year:

Braves 
Soroka - 3.0 WAR
Folty - 1.7 WAR
Fried - 3.2 WAR
Newcomb - 1.5 WAR
Wilson - 1.3 WAR
Top 5 total - 10.7 WAR

Cards 
Flaherty - 4.2 WAR
Mikolas - 2.8 WAR
Hudson - 1.5 WAR
Wainwright - 1.7 WAR
Martinez - 1.5 WAR
Top 5 total - 11.7 WAR

Cubs 
Darvish - 3.8 WAR
Quintana - 2.5 WAR
Lester - 2.1 WAR
Hendricks - 2.7 WAR
Mills - 1.1 WAR
Top 5 total - 12.2

Dogs 
Kershaw - 4.4 WAR
Buehler - 4.3 WAR
Maeda - 2.2 WAR
Urias - 2.1 WAR
Stripling - 1.7 WAR
Top 5 total - 14.7 WAR

Indians 
Clevinger - 4.3 WAR
Bieber - 4.7 WAR
Kluber - 3.4 WAR
Carrasco - 3.3 WAR
Civale - 0.9 WAR 
Top 5 total - 16.6 WAR

Mets 
deGrom - 6.2 WAR
Syndergaard - 4.2 WAR
Stroman - 3.2 WAR
Matz - 2.2 WAR 
Lockett - 0.9 WAR
Top 5 total - 16.7 WAR

Nats 
Scherzer - 6.0 WAR
Corbin - 4.6 WAR
Sanchez - 1.5 WAR
Ross - 1.6 WAR
Voth - 2.0 WAR
Top 5 total - 15.6 WAR

Padres 
Lucchesi - 2.3 WAR
Richards - 3.2 WAR
Lamet - 3.5 WAR
Paddack - 3.1 WAR
Lauer - 1.2 WAR
Top 5 total - 13.3 WAR

Phills 
Nola - 4.1 WAR
Arrieta - 1.6 WAR
Efflin - 1.1 WAR
Velasquez - 1.4 WAR
Pivetta - 1.8 WAR
Top 5 total - 10.0 WAR

Rays 
Morton - 4.3 WAR
Snell - 4.3 WAR
Glasnow - 3.4 WAR
Chirinos - 1.5 WAR
McKay - 1.5 WAR
Top 5 total - 15.0 WAR

Red Sox 
Sale - 4.9 WAR
Rodriguez - 3.0 WAR
Price - 2.6 WAR
Eovaldi - 2.3 WAR
Johnson - 0.2 WAR
Top 5 total - 13 WAR

Reds 
Bauer - 4.3 WAR
Castillo - 3.9 WAR
Gray - 3.5 WAR
DeSclafani - 2.4 WAR
Mahle - 1.8 AR
Top 5 total - 15.9 WAR

Twins 
Berrios - 3.1 WAR
Odorizzi - 2.3 WAR
Dobnak - 1.3 WAR
Thorpe - 1.7 WAR
Smeltzer - 0.8 WAR
Top 5 total - 9.2 WAR

Yankees 
Paxton - 4.1 WAR
Tanaka - 2.5 WAR
Severino - 3.8 WAR
Happ - 1.7 WAR
German - 1.5 WAR
Top 5 total - 13.6 WAR

A few caveats to the lists above.  These are steamer projections from Fangraphs so take them for what they are worth.  Some of the numbers just don't seem right but it's more likely that I'm including bias of some sort. 

Of course teams are going to add.  And of course depth is important.  Neither of which are accounted for here.  But this is just a taste.  An appetizer if you will, of what things could look like.  Another thing to add is Sandoval's 1.4 WAR projection and Suarez 0.9 WAR projection.  Higher than a few of the back end guys projections for other teams.  The point of bringing that up is that we're fine from a depth standpoint by adding a couple of arms to the top of the rotation.  

It's really a testament to how much impact a top of the rotation starter can have.  

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9 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

3.1 projection for Heaney? 😲 

Geez, I hope Callaway is that effective with him. That would be amazing. 

I was surprised by that as well.  But I thought the projection for Wheeler was a bit on the low side so I figured they'd offset.  

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14 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I was surprised by that as well.  But I thought the projection for Wheeler was a bit on the low side so I figured they'd offset.  

I think honestly it has more to do with staying healthy than anything else. I feel like Heaney is capable of that with a coach like Callaway. His big problem is always how much time he’s out. 

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10 minutes ago, floplag said:

Interesting read, now how about the offenses?  🙂
Thats not sarcasm by the way id love to see how those add up within division but im swamped at work and cant compile right now

Astros - 32.7 WAR - cheating tax of 20% - 26.2 WAR.  
A's - 26.0 WAR
Angels - 25.3 WAR
Mariners -13.0 WAR
Rangers - 10.8 WAR

They don't like Upton for much of a rebound at 1.6 WAR.  They've got Fletch at 1.7 WAR.  Goodwin and Adell at 0.2 WAR COMBINED for RF.  La Stella at 0.9 WAR but they've got Cozart at 1.6 WAR and Stassi at 1.6 WAR.  

Also, I would subtract a cheating tax from the Astros total number.  Maybe 20% which actually brings them very close to the Halos/A's.  

The projections don't like our pen much though.  But the difference is about 1-2 wins from top to bottom at most.  

If we get Cole and Wheeler, the division is wide open for the Astros, Angels and A's even assuming that the A's and Stros do some stuff to improve this off season.  


 

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Interesting, I was thinking something similar to this before I saw this. Cole would give the Angels that elite starting pitcher that they need to add. Sample size is still small for Ohtani as a starting pitcher but he most likely will be another ace. 2018, he was dominant when he was on the mound. Not sure about Wheeler. A lot of ups and downs and no consistency. Angels’ starting rotation wouldn’t be that bad if Cole was added. 

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19 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Astros - 32.7 WAR - cheating tax of 20% - 26.2 WAR.  
A's - 26.0 WAR
Angels - 25.3 WAR
Mariners -13.0 WAR
Rangers - 10.8 WAR

They don't like Upton for much of a rebound at 1.6 WAR.  They've got Fletch at 1.7 WAR.  Goodwin and Adell at 0.2 WAR COMBINED for RF.  La Stella at 0.9 WAR but they've got Cozart at 1.6 WAR and Stassi at 1.6 WAR.  

Also, I would subtract a cheating tax from the Astros total number.  Maybe 20% which actually brings them very close to the Halos/A's.  

The projections don't like our pen much though.  But the difference is about 1-2 wins from top to bottom at most.  

If we get Cole and Wheeler, the division is wide open for the Astros, Angels and A's even assuming that the A's and Stros do some stuff to improve this off season.  


 

F'in A's, Cotton.

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1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

Astros:
Verlander - 5.7 WAR
Greinke - 2.9 WAR
Urquidy - 2.2 WAR
McCullers - 3.0 WAR
Armenteros - 0.8 WAR
Top 5 total - 14.6 WAR

A's
Fiers - 1.2 WAR
Montas - 3.0 WAR
Bassitt - 2.2 WAR
Luzardo - 2.5 WAR
Manaea - 1.6 WAR
Top 5 total - 10.5 WAR

Mariners 
Gonzales - 2.1 WAR
Kikuchi - 1.6 WAR
Sheffield - 0.8 WAR
Dunn - 1.0 WAR
Swanson - 0.9 WAR
Top 5 total - 6.4 WAR

Rangers 
Minor - 3.1 WAR
Lynn - 4.1 WAR
Allard - 1.5 WAR
Burke - 1.0 WAR
Jurado - 0.9 WAR
Top 5 total - 10.6 WAR

Angels 
Cole - 6.4 WAR
Wheeler - 3.3 WAR
Heaney - 3.1 WAR
Canning - 2.0 WAR
Ohtani - 2.8 WAR
Top 5 total - 17.6 WAR

Let's include a few teams that are likely playoff contenders for next year:

Braves 
Soroka - 3.0 WAR
Folty - 1.7 WAR
Fried - 3.2 WAR
Newcomb - 1.5 WAR
Wilson - 1.3 WAR
Top 5 total - 10.7 WAR

Cards 
Flaherty - 4.2 WAR
Mikolas - 2.8 WAR
Hudson - 1.5 WAR
Wainwright - 1.7 WAR
Martinez - 1.5 WAR
Top 5 total - 11.7 WAR

Cubs 
Darvish - 3.8 WAR
Quintana - 2.5 WAR
Lester - 2.1 WAR
Hendricks - 2.7 WAR
Mills - 1.1 WAR
Top 5 total - 12.2

Dogs 
Kershaw - 4.4 WAR
Buehler - 4.3 WAR
Maeda - 2.2 WAR
Urias - 2.1 WAR
Stripling - 1.7 WAR
Top 5 total - 14.7 WAR

Indians 
Clevinger - 4.3 WAR
Bieber - 4.7 WAR
Kluber - 3.4 WAR
Carrasco - 3.3 WAR
Civale - 0.9 WAR 
Top 5 total - 16.6 WAR

Mets 
deGrom - 6.2 WAR
Syndergaard - 4.2 WAR
Stroman - 3.2 WAR
Matz - 2.2 WAR 
Lockett - 0.9 WAR
Top 5 total - 16.7 WAR

Nats 
Scherzer - 6.0 WAR
Corbin - 4.6 WAR
Sanchez - 1.5 WAR
Ross - 1.6 WAR
Voth - 2.0 WAR
Top 5 total - 15.6 WAR

Padres 
Lucchesi - 2.3 WAR
Richards - 3.2 WAR
Lamet - 3.5 WAR
Paddack - 3.1 WAR
Lauer - 1.2 WAR
Top 5 total - 13.3 WAR

Phills 
Nola - 4.1 WAR
Arrieta - 1.6 WAR
Efflin - 1.1 WAR
Velasquez - 1.4 WAR
Pivetta - 1.8 WAR
Top 5 total - 10.0 WAR

Rays 
Morton - 4.3 WAR
Snell - 4.3 WAR
Glasnow - 3.4 WAR
Chirinos - 1.5 WAR
McKay - 1.5 WAR
Top 5 total - 15.0 WAR

Red Sox 
Sale - 4.9 WAR
Rodriguez - 3.0 WAR
Price - 2.6 WAR
Eovaldi - 2.3 WAR
Johnson - 0.2 WAR
Top 5 total - 13 WAR

Reds 
Bauer - 4.3 WAR
Castillo - 3.9 WAR
Gray - 3.5 WAR
DeSclafani - 2.4 WAR
Mahle - 1.8 AR
Top 5 total - 15.9 WAR

Twins 
Berrios - 3.1 WAR
Odorizzi - 2.3 WAR
Dobnak - 1.3 WAR
Thorpe - 1.7 WAR
Smeltzer - 0.8 WAR
Top 5 total - 9.2 WAR

Yankees 
Paxton - 4.1 WAR
Tanaka - 2.5 WAR
Severino - 3.8 WAR
Happ - 1.7 WAR
German - 1.5 WAR
Top 5 total - 13.6 WAR

A few caveats to the lists above.  These are steamer projections from Fangraphs so take them for what they are worth.  Some of the numbers just don't seem right but it's more likely that I'm including bias of some sort. 

Of course teams are going to add.  And of course depth is important.  Neither of which are accounted for here.  But this is just a taste.  An appetizer if you will, of what things could look like.  Another thing to add is Sandoval's 1.4 WAR projection and Suarez 0.9 WAR projection.  Higher than a few of the back end guys projections for other teams.  The point of bringing that up is that we're fine from a depth standpoint by adding a couple of arms to the top of the rotation.  

It's really a testament to how much impact a top of the rotation starter can have.  

You are the type of person that is fun at parties! 😄

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59 minutes ago, floplag said:

Interesting read, now how about the offenses?  🙂
Thats not sarcasm by the way id love to see how those add up within division but im swamped at work and cant compile right now

There is an Angelswin.com Primer Series article for this! Yay!

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4 minutes ago, Dick B Back said:

Padres and Reds likely playoff contenders...

clark gable nod GIF

 

mostly I included them because they have good rotations.  But watch out for both of those teams in 2020.  

the Reds were -9 games relative to where they should have been by their base runs differential.  They have a very good rotation, a solid bullpen and if they add a couple of pieces on offense they could be very dangerous.  Aquino hit 47 bombs between AAA and the bigs this year.  Senzel is going to be a very good player.  Suarez is a beast.  Votto can still hang.  Van Meter is their version of Rengifo.  Barnhart is excellent defensively.  Winkler is primed for a breakout year.  They could spend some money to upgrade their MIF by adding Didi and maybe one more bat and they'll have a solid offense.  They'll need some progression from their young guys but they could easily win over 85 games next year and that division will be pretty wide open.  

the Padres likely aren't going to win a division in 2020 but they're loaded with young talent.  The dback are decent.  The rockies suck.  The Giants suck.  There's a lot of wins to be had there.  Tatis is a superstar.  Again, a couple of savvy moves and they're in the 85+ win range and vying for a WC.  

 

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10 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

We'd have the best youngest rotation in baseball. When Arte signs both Wheeler and Cole this team is at minimum a 100 win team. With Trout and Cole in their primes this team might be the front runner for WS favorites. 

Woah there cowboy, let's bring it back into the realm of reality.

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1 hour ago, Kevinb said:

We'd have the best youngest rotation in baseball. When Arte signs both Wheeler and Cole this team is at minimum a 100 win team. With Trout and Cole in their primes this team might be the front runner for WS favorites. 

Lol.

 

good one.

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Just now, Bronson said:

Lol.

 

good one.

Sorry you don’t think a team with Cole Wheeler Ohtani as the top three pitchers. Trout Simmons Upton Ohtani Fletcher Adell is a World Series contender. I don’t know what is if that’s not. 

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with no additions to the rotation:

Heaney - 3.1 WAR
Ohtani - 2.8 WAR
Canning - 2.0 WAR
Sandoval - 1.4 WAR
Suarez - 0.9 WAR
Top 5 total - 10.2 WAR.  

personally, I think that's pretty realistic for the top 5 assuming they stayed healthy, but there is very little depth as it stands with Barria, Peters, and half a season of Pena plus whatever we could conjure up from the minors which isn't much.  Cole and Wheeler accomplish three things.  They anchor the top of the rotation, they create depth by displacing others into that role, and they eat innings to save the bullpen and make it more effective.  

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