Angelsjunky

So there are 7 games left until the trade deadline and the Angels play the Athletics and Texas for all 7. It is do or die time - this is basically the most interesting and important week of the year for the Angels.
 
Anyhow, it struck me that Dipoto might have a "magic number" for how many games the Angels need to lose before he sells. Obviously chances of making the postseason are rather slim right now, but if they win six or seven of the next seven games he will be very tempted to keep all the pieces and hope for the best.
 
So hypothetically speaking, if he has a "magic number" in terms of losses, what do you think it is? 2? 3?
 
The point being, over the next seven games, at what loss number does he say "OK, time to send Downs for that pitching prospect."

So there are 7 games left until the trade deadline and the Angels play the Athletics and Texas for all 7. It is do or die time - this is basically the most interesting and important week of the year for the Angels.
 
Anyhow, it struck me that Dipoto might have a "magic number" for how many games the Angels need to lose before he sells. Obviously chances of making the postseason are rather slim right now, but if they win six or seven of the next seven games he will be very tempted to keep all the pieces and hope for the best.
 
So hypothetically speaking, if he has a "magic number" in terms of losses, what do you think it is? 2? 3?
 
The point being, over the next seven games, at what loss number does he say "OK, time to send Downs for that pitching prospect."

No shit, nando. I was clear that I was intentionally doing that as an exercise. What's your point?

Having an existential moment, Shane? The point is...well, we're baseball fans? We like to think about baseball, not just spew vitriol and scream for our team like tribal lunatics - or some of us, at least. So this is a thought exercise for the enjoyment of thinking baseball fans. It shouldn't have to be justified for meaning on a baseball forum.

It shouldn't need further support, but I'll say it again: There is no correlation between minor league records and the depth or quality of prospects. Let me put it this way. Each major league team has 7-9 minor league farm teams. Each of those teams has approximately a 25-man active roster, which means that for every 25 major leaguers (add a few for the DL) there are at least 175 minor leaguers or as many as 225. How many of those ~200 players do you think will have significant major league careers? Not many. Many of them move slowly through the system and either wash-out and try their hand at another career or become the dreaded "career minor leaguer," which I would define as a player that might be called up on a pinch but spends far more of their career in the minors than majors (e.g. Paul McAnulty). Actually, the majority of players in AAA are these types of guys, and if you want to look at the real talent in a system generally A, A+ and AA have the higher end prospects, because better prospects tend to move through AAA relatively quickly.
 
Now let's look at the Salt Lake Bees. According to Baseball Reference, 25 hitters and 28 pitchers have played there this year. He average age of the hitters is 28.4 years, the pitchers 27.8 years. The only hitter younger than 25 is Ryan Dalton (21) who played only one game and was, I believe, just a fill-in from Orem. Every other hitter is between 25 and 34. As for the pitchers, the range has been 24 to 36.
 
Looking down the roster, he only position players that have a decent chance at being major league regulars are Kole Calhoun and Luis Jimenez. A few players - Andrew Romine, Matt Long, Drew Heid, Thomas Field - could have decent careers are bench/platoon players. Among the pitchers, none look like #1-3 pitchers. AJ Schugel and Matt Shoemaker will probably start some games in the majors, and Schugel has a decent chance at being a back-end starter for some time (although he's pitched terribly this year). Most of the pitchers have logged some innings in the majors, but very few if any look like they'll have ongoing gigs (maybe Berg, Carpenter, one or two others).
 
So that's a 59-46 team. To recap, the best prospect is Kole Calhoun who I'd say is a solid grade B prospect, but on the older side (he's 25). Only a few others have a chance at being a major league regular. The team is largely comprised of career minor leaguers, guys that ride the AAA buses, switching from team to team, enjoying the game, but hoping to get a major major league contract (remember that the MLB minimum of ~$500,000 looks pretty great to a player that might be making less than $20K a year playing baseball).
 
The averages ages at AA Arkansas drop significantly - 23.6 for hitters and 25.2 for pitchers. Here you'll find more prospects with decent chances of major league careers - Cowart, Cron, Lindsey, Grichuk, Maronde, possibly Witherspoon, Bandy, Correa, Piazza, and one or two others. Arkansas has a much higher concentration of talent than Salt Lake, but they're 51-51.
 
Anyhow, hopefully the point is clear. A minor league team's record has nothing to do with future talent, but only ability at the level they're currently playing at. Salt Lake is a good AAA team - but against other AAA players, and most players on the roster won't get any better because they're already in their prime. Remember that most players have a wide peak of around 25-32, and a narrower peak of 27-30. This means that very few players will get batter after age 27. Some do, but not so much better than they were at 27.

It shouldn't need further support, but I'll say it again: There is no correlation between minor league records and the depth or quality of prospects. Let me put it this way. Each major league team has 7-9 minor league farm teams. Each of those teams has approximately a 25-man active roster, which means that for every 25 major leaguers (add a few for the DL) there are at least 175 minor leaguers or as many as 225. How many of those ~200 players do you think will have significant major league careers? Not many. Many of them move slowly through the system and either wash-out and try their hand at another career or become the dreaded "career minor leaguer," which I would define as a player that might be called up on a pinch but spends far more of their career in the minors than majors (e.g. Paul McAnulty). Actually, the majority of players in AAA are these types of guys, and if you want to look at the real talent in a system generally A, A+ and AA have the higher end prospects, because better prospects tend to move through AAA relatively quickly.
 
Now let's look at the Salt Lake Bees. According to Baseball Reference, 25 hitters and 28 pitchers have played there this year. He average age of the hitters is 28.4 years, the pitchers 27.8 years. The only hitter younger than 25 is Ryan Dalton (21) who played only one game and was, I believe, just a fill-in from Orem. Every other hitter is between 25 and 34. As for the pitchers, the range has been 24 to 36.
 
Looking down the roster, he only position players that have a decent chance at being major league regulars are Kole Calhoun and Luis Jimenez. A few players - Andrew Romine, Matt Long, Drew Heid, Thomas Field - could have decent careers are bench/platoon players. Among the pitchers, none look like #1-3 pitchers. AJ Schugel and Matt Shoemaker will probably start some games in the majors, and Schugel has a decent chance at being a back-end starter for some time (although he's pitched terribly this year). Most of the pitchers have logged some innings in the majors, but very few if any look like they'll have ongoing gigs (maybe Berg, Carpenter, one or two others).
 
So that's a 59-46 team. To recap, the best prospect is Kole Calhoun who I'd say is a solid grade B prospect, but on the older side (he's 25). Only a few others have a chance at being a major league regular. The team is largely comprised of career minor leaguers, guys that ride the AAA buses, switching from team to team, enjoying the game, but hoping to get a major major league contract (remember that the MLB minimum of ~$500,000 looks pretty great to a player that might be making less than $20K a year playing baseball).
 
The averages ages at AA Arkansas drop significantly - 23.6 for hitters and 25.2 for pitchers. Here you'll find more prospects with decent chances of major league careers - Cowart, Cron, Lindsey, Grichuk, Maronde, possibly Witherspoon, Bandy, Correa, Piazza, and one or two others. Arkansas has a much higher concentration of talent than Salt Lake, but they're 51-51.
 
Anyhow, hopefully the point is clear. A minor league team's record has nothing to do with future talent, but only ability at the level they're currently playing at. Salt Lake is a good AAA team - but against other AAA players, and most players on the roster won't get any better because they're already in their prime. Remember that most players have a wide peak of around 25-32, and a narrower peak of 27-30. This means that very few players will get batter after age 27. Some do, but not so much better than they were at 27.

It shouldn't need further support, but I'll say it again: There is no correlation between minor league records and the depth or quality of prospects. Let me put it this way. Each major league team has 7-9 minor league farm teams. Each of those teams has approximately a 25-man active roster, which means that for every 25 major leaguers (add a few for the DL) there are at least 175 minor leaguers or as many as 225. How many of those ~200 players do you think will have significant major league careers? Not many. Many of them move slowly through the system and either wash-out and try their hand at another career or become the dreaded "career minor leaguer," which I would define as a player that might be called up on a pinch but spends far more of their career in the minors than majors (e.g. Paul McAnulty). Actually, the majority of players in AAA are these types of guys, and if you want to look at the real talent in a system generally A, A+ and AA have the higher end prospects, because better prospects tend to move through AAA relatively quickly.
 
Now let's look at the Salt Lake Bees. According to Baseball Reference, 25 hitters and 28 pitchers have played there this year. He average age of the hitters is 28.4 years, the pitchers 27.8 years. The only hitter younger than 25 is Ryan Dalton (21) who played only one game and was, I believe, just a fill-in from Orem. Every other hitter is between 25 and 34. As for the pitchers, the range has been 24 to 36.
 
Looking down the roster, he only position players that have a decent chance at being major league regulars are Kole Calhoun and Luis Jimenez. A few players - Andrew Romine, Matt Long, Drew Heid, Thomas Field - could have decent careers are bench/platoon players. Among the pitchers, none look like #1-3 pitchers. AJ Schugel and Matt Shoemaker will probably start some games in the majors, and Schugel has a decent chance at being a back-end starter for some time (although he's pitched terribly this year). Most of the pitchers have logged some innings in the majors, but very few if any look like they'll have ongoing gigs (maybe Berg, Carpenter, one or two others).
 
So that's a 59-46 team. To recap, the best prospect is Kole Calhoun who I'd say is a solid grade B prospect, but on the older side (he's 25). Only a few others have a chance at being a major league regular. The team is largely comprised of career minor leaguers, guys that ride the AAA buses, switching from team to team, enjoying the game, but hoping to get a major major league contract (remember that the MLB minimum of ~$500,000 looks pretty great to a player that might be making less than $20K a year playing baseball).
 
The averages ages at AA Arkansas drop significantly - 23.6 for hitters and 25.2 for pitchers. Here you'll find more prospects with decent chances of major league careers - Cowart, Cron, Lindsey, Grichuk, Maronde, possibly Witherspoon, Bandy, Correa, Piazza, and one or two others. Arkansas has a much higher concentration of talent than Salt Lake, but they're 51-51.
 
Anyhow, hopefully the point is clear. A minor league team's record has nothing to do with future talent, but only ability at the level they're currently playing at. Salt Lake is a good AAA team - but against other AAA players, and most players on the roster won't get any better because they're already in their prime. Remember that most players have a wide peak of around 25-32, and a narrower peak of 27-30. This means that very few players will get batter after age 27. Some do, but not so much better than they were at 27.

The thought of Trout playing on another team makes me sick, like imagining my wife married to another man.

The thought of Trout playing on another team makes me sick, like imagining my wife married to another man.

If Hanson is truly back after last night's start (was hitting 94 MPH on most his fastballs last night, showing a sharp curve) and he can stay off the DL, combined with Garrett Richards in the 5th spot, this rotation is pretty damn solid going into 2014 if the Halos can extend Vargas and Richards improves a bit. 
 
The team needs to make some trades though to improve other areas, but I believe they can. 
 
It's not all gloom and doom, but you have to write off this season and just hope for some good baseball down the stretch and some good moves to be made like getting Calhoun up here, playing Conger full time and look at improving the 3B spot soon. 

The thought of Trout playing on another team makes me sick, like imagining my wife married to another man.

I haven't read the thread, but holy hyperbole, Batman. Shuck is stretched as a starter but makes a decent fill-in, and a good 4th outfielder.
 
That said, it SHOULD be Calhoun Time.

By Associated Press
July 24, 2013
 
ANAHEIM - Sources close to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim GM Jerry Dipoto say that the two teams are on the verge of a blockbuster deal that would send 21-year old superstar Mike Trout to Houston for the Astros. Dipoto and Houston GM Jeff Luhnow are working out the fine-points of the deal, and seem to be stalling over a point; rumor has it that Dipoto insists on including Joe Blanton in the deal but Luhnow is hesitating. There's also the question of whether Houston is including only the 25-man roster or the 40-man roster.
 
When asked how he would assemble a team around Mike Trout with no other major leaguers, Luhnow allegedly responded, "Who cares? We'll throw eight scrubs in there and be better than we--or the Angels--have been all year."
 
Dipoto was reticent on the trade, but one analyst believes that he likes to have a lot of mediocre players to configure into some semblance of a major league team.
 
When questioned about the trade, Trout shrugged and said, "I'm just here to play ball and do the best for my team, God and country. I'll be a Yankee in five years either way, so it doesn't matter to me whether I spend a few months a year in Houston or Anaheim."
 
Advanced sabermetric systems have the Astros improving by two wins for the remaining season, with the Angels breaking even.

By Associated Press
July 24, 2013
 
ANAHEIM - Sources close to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim GM Jerry Dipoto say that the two teams are on the verge of a blockbuster deal that would send 21-year old superstar Mike Trout to Houston for the Astros. Dipoto and Houston GM Jeff Luhnow are working out the fine-points of the deal, and seem to be stalling over a point; rumor has it that Dipoto insists on including Joe Blanton in the deal but Luhnow is hesitating. There's also the question of whether Houston is including only the 25-man roster or the 40-man roster.
 
When asked how he would assemble a team around Mike Trout with no other major leaguers, Luhnow allegedly responded, "Who cares? We'll throw eight scrubs in there and be better than we--or the Angels--have been all year."
 
Dipoto was reticent on the trade, but one analyst believes that he likes to have a lot of mediocre players to configure into some semblance of a major league team.
 
When questioned about the trade, Trout shrugged and said, "I'm just here to play ball and do the best for my team, God and country. I'll be a Yankee in five years either way, so it doesn't matter to me whether I spend a few months a year in Houston or Anaheim."
 
Advanced sabermetric systems have the Astros improving by two wins for the remaining season, with the Angels breaking even.

By Associated Press
July 24, 2013
 
ANAHEIM - Sources close to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim GM Jerry Dipoto say that the two teams are on the verge of a blockbuster deal that would send 21-year old superstar Mike Trout to Houston for the Astros. Dipoto and Houston GM Jeff Luhnow are working out the fine-points of the deal, and seem to be stalling over a point; rumor has it that Dipoto insists on including Joe Blanton in the deal but Luhnow is hesitating. There's also the question of whether Houston is including only the 25-man roster or the 40-man roster.
 
When asked how he would assemble a team around Mike Trout with no other major leaguers, Luhnow allegedly responded, "Who cares? We'll throw eight scrubs in there and be better than we--or the Angels--have been all year."
 
Dipoto was reticent on the trade, but one analyst believes that he likes to have a lot of mediocre players to configure into some semblance of a major league team.
 
When questioned about the trade, Trout shrugged and said, "I'm just here to play ball and do the best for my team, God and country. I'll be a Yankee in five years either way, so it doesn't matter to me whether I spend a few months a year in Houston or Anaheim."
 
Advanced sabermetric systems have the Astros improving by two wins for the remaining season, with the Angels breaking even.

By Associated Press
July 24, 2013
 
ANAHEIM - Sources close to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim GM Jerry Dipoto say that the two teams are on the verge of a blockbuster deal that would send 21-year old superstar Mike Trout to Houston for the Astros. Dipoto and Houston GM Jeff Luhnow are working out the fine-points of the deal, and seem to be stalling over a point; rumor has it that Dipoto insists on including Joe Blanton in the deal but Luhnow is hesitating. There's also the question of whether Houston is including only the 25-man roster or the 40-man roster.
 
When asked how he would assemble a team around Mike Trout with no other major leaguers, Luhnow allegedly responded, "Who cares? We'll throw eight scrubs in there and be better than we--or the Angels--have been all year."
 
Dipoto was reticent on the trade, but one analyst believes that he likes to have a lot of mediocre players to configure into some semblance of a major league team.
 
When questioned about the trade, Trout shrugged and said, "I'm just here to play ball and do the best for my team, God and country. I'll be a Yankee in five years either way, so it doesn't matter to me whether I spend a few months a year in Houston or Anaheim."
 
Advanced sabermetric systems have the Astros improving by two wins for the remaining season, with the Angels breaking even.

By Associated Press
July 24, 2013
 
ANAHEIM - Sources close to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim GM Jerry Dipoto say that the two teams are on the verge of a blockbuster deal that would send 21-year old superstar Mike Trout to Houston for the Astros. Dipoto and Houston GM Jeff Luhnow are working out the fine-points of the deal, and seem to be stalling over a point; rumor has it that Dipoto insists on including Joe Blanton in the deal but Luhnow is hesitating. There's also the question of whether Houston is including only the 25-man roster or the 40-man roster.
 
When asked how he would assemble a team around Mike Trout with no other major leaguers, Luhnow allegedly responded, "Who cares? We'll throw eight scrubs in there and be better than we--or the Angels--have been all year."
 
Dipoto was reticent on the trade, but one analyst believes that he likes to have a lot of mediocre players to configure into some semblance of a major league team.
 
When questioned about the trade, Trout shrugged and said, "I'm just here to play ball and do the best for my team, God and country. I'll be a Yankee in five years either way, so it doesn't matter to me whether I spend a few months a year in Houston or Anaheim."
 
Advanced sabermetric systems have the Astros improving by two wins for the remaining season, with the Angels breaking even.

By Associated Press
July 24, 2013
 
ANAHEIM - Sources close to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim GM Jerry Dipoto say that the two teams are on the verge of a blockbuster deal that would send 21-year old superstar Mike Trout to Houston for the Astros. Dipoto and Houston GM Jeff Luhnow are working out the fine-points of the deal, and seem to be stalling over a point; rumor has it that Dipoto insists on including Joe Blanton in the deal but Luhnow is hesitating. There's also the question of whether Houston is including only the 25-man roster or the 40-man roster.
 
When asked how he would assemble a team around Mike Trout with no other major leaguers, Luhnow allegedly responded, "Who cares? We'll throw eight scrubs in there and be better than we--or the Angels--have been all year."
 
Dipoto was reticent on the trade, but one analyst believes that he likes to have a lot of mediocre players to configure into some semblance of a major league team.
 
When questioned about the trade, Trout shrugged and said, "I'm just here to play ball and do the best for my team, God and country. I'll be a Yankee in five years either way, so it doesn't matter to me whether I spend a few months a year in Houston or Anaheim."
 
Advanced sabermetric systems have the Astros improving by two wins for the remaining season, with the Angels breaking even.

By Associated Press
July 24, 2013
 
ANAHEIM - Sources close to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim GM Jerry Dipoto say that the two teams are on the verge of a blockbuster deal that would send 21-year old superstar Mike Trout to Houston for the Astros. Dipoto and Houston GM Jeff Luhnow are working out the fine-points of the deal, and seem to be stalling over a point; rumor has it that Dipoto insists on including Joe Blanton in the deal but Luhnow is hesitating. There's also the question of whether Houston is including only the 25-man roster or the 40-man roster.
 
When asked how he would assemble a team around Mike Trout with no other major leaguers, Luhnow allegedly responded, "Who cares? We'll throw eight scrubs in there and be better than we--or the Angels--have been all year."
 
Dipoto was reticent on the trade, but one analyst believes that he likes to have a lot of mediocre players to configure into some semblance of a major league team.
 
When questioned about the trade, Trout shrugged and said, "I'm just here to play ball and do the best for my team, God and country. I'll be a Yankee in five years either way, so it doesn't matter to me whether I spend a few months a year in Houston or Anaheim."
 
Advanced sabermetric systems have the Astros improving by two wins for the remaining season, with the Angels breaking even.

The thought of Trout playing on another team makes me sick, like imagining my wife married to another man.

The thought of Trout playing on another team makes me sick, like imagining my wife married to another man.

The thought of Trout playing on another team makes me sick, like imagining my wife married to another man.

The thought of Trout playing on another team makes me sick, like imagining my wife married to another man.

The thought of Trout playing on another team makes me sick, like imagining my wife married to another man.

His POS+ level is steadily rising however