What Could Have Been

[Angelsjunky]

I know, I know - two things make this thread nothing more than an idle thought experiment - that hindsight is 20-20 and you never know how these players would have performed if they had stayed with the Angels. But for the sake of some fun, let's dial back to November last year and make a few changes. Just a note: I'm NOT saying what should or should not have happened, just looking at a different path the Angels could have taken.

 

1) The Angels keep Ervin Santana

2) The Angels keep Torii Hunter

3) The Angels sign Zack Greinke

4) The Angels don't sign Joe Blanton

5) The Angels don't trade Walden for Hanson

 

That gives them a rotation of Weaver, Greinke, Wilson, Santana, and Vargas. Not bad.

 

Now let's make two assumptions that I realize are a bit silly, but again, bear with me. Let's say that A) they did perform exactly as they did this year, but with swapped teams, and fWAR can be used to deteremine adjustments to win-loss records.

 

Ervin Santana (2.1 fWAR) replaces Joe Blanton (0.0) = +2.1 fWAR

Torii Hunter (1.8 fWAR) replaces Josh Hamilton (0.7) = +1.1 fWAR

Zack Greinke (1.1 fWAR) replaces Tommy Hanson (0.3) = +0.8 fWAR

Jordan Walden (0.8 fWAR) replaces a combination of reliever innings (~0.3) = +0.5 fWAR

 

So that's +4.5 fWAR, which we'll round up and say that the Angels would then have a 52-47 record. Not a huge difference, but enough of one to make this a very different season - only 6 games out of first place and 2.5 games out of a wildcard spot.

 

What about the difference in cost?  Well here's the rub. The Hamilton and Greinke contracts are basically a wash overall, although Hamilton's is more backloaded. But for 2013, the Angels get rid of about $27M this year but take on about $51M - that's $24M. The interesting thing is that the cost for each WAR is between $4.5M and $5M, which makes perfect sense given that WAR differential.

 

To put all that another way, this could be a better team - a contender, but not a dominant team - if Dipoto had assembled the pieces in the last offseason differently, but he would have had to pay much more.

 

Another alternate path would have been to not sign Hamilton and give Calhoun more at-bats, which would have likely resulted in equal or better results and a lot of money (and grief) saved, and a more flexible financial future. But hey, Arte wanted his big belly-flop splash.

 

[nando714]

Coulda Shoulda Woulda

[Angelsjunky]

No shit, nando. I was clear that I was intentionally doing that as an exercise. What's your point?

[wopphil]

I was thinking more along the lines of:

 

1. Weaver

2. Harvey

3. Wilson

4. Corbin

5. Skaggs

[tomsred]

I was thinking we should have signed Bartolo Colon.  If he stays on PED's we win, if he gets caught we don't have to pay his salary. That Billy Beane is a smart guy.

[eaterfan]

Plus we don't lose our first round pick for Hamilton.

[Tyler]

No shit, nando. I was clear that I was intentionally doing that as an exercise. What's your point?

 

What's yours? It's all meaningless.

[Angelsjunky]

Having an existential moment, Shane? The point is...well, we're baseball fans? We like to think about baseball, not just spew vitriol and scream for our team like tribal lunatics - or some of us, at least. So this is a thought exercise for the enjoyment of thinking baseball fans. It shouldn't have to be justified for meaning on a baseball forum.

[mtangelsfan]

Here is my issue with all "what if" threads.  They don't exist in vaccuums.

 

Each move predactes another, each location may affect play. 

[Reveille1984]

Trying to promote thought exercises here is like teaching a monkey astrophysics

[Tyler]

Having an existential moment, Shane? The point is...well, we're baseball fans? We like to think about baseball, not just spew vitriol and scream for our team like tribal lunatics - or some of us, at least. So this is a thought exercise for the enjoyment of thinking baseball fans. It shouldn't have to be justified for meaning on a baseball forum.

 

For someone who likes to play GM so much, you sure love to bring up the past.

[Brent Maguire]

AJ, these threads are great.

It doesn't make me feel better knowing we could've fielded a much better team but it's interesting seeing what could have been.

[Mudville]

I really don't think the Angels would have outbid the Dodgers for Greinke and he said he was in it only for the money so there was never going to be a choice on his part which franchise he liked more.

 

What if Greinke wasn't such a greedy a-hole and accepted a contract that reflected his career worth of pitching performance rather than his one Cy Young year? Then maybe we would have something to discuss.

[OregonLAA]

When we have our awards at the end of the year we should have one for most positive poster. Shane should be on that list. The guy is all rainbows and butterflies

[stormngt]

I know, I know - two things make this thread nothing more than an idle thought experiment - that hindsight is 20-20 and you never know how these players would have performed if they had stayed with the Angels. But for the sake of some fun, let's dial back to November last year and make a few changes. Just a note: I'm NOT saying what should or should not have happened, just looking at a different path the Angels could have taken.

 

1) The Angels keep Ervin Santana

2) The Angels keep Torii Hunter

3) The Angels sign Zack Greinke

4) The Angels don't sign Joe Blanton

5) The Angels don't trade Walden for Hanson

 

That gives them a rotation of Weaver, Greinke, Wilson, Santana, and Vargas. Not bad.

 

Now let's make two assumptions that I realize are a bit silly, but again, bear with me. Let's say that A) they did perform exactly as they did this year, but with swapped teams, and fWAR can be used to deteremine adjustments to win-loss records.

 

Ervin Santana (2.1 fWAR) replaces Joe Blanton (0.0) = +2.1 fWAR

Torii Hunter (1.8 fWAR) replaces Josh Hamilton (0.7) = +1.1 fWAR

Zack Greinke (1.1 fWAR) replaces Tommy Hanson (0.3) = +0.8 fWAR

Jordan Walden (0.8 fWAR) replaces a combination of reliever innings (~0.3) = +0.5 fWAR

 

So that's +4.5 fWAR, which we'll round up and say that the Angels would then have a 52-47 record. Not a huge difference, but enough of one to make this a very different season - only 6 games out of first place and 2.5 games out of a wildcard spot.

 

What about the difference in cost?  Well here's the rub. The Hamilton and Greinke contracts are basically a wash overall, although Hamilton's is more backloaded. But for 2013, the Angels get rid of about $27M this year but take on about $51M - that's $24M. The interesting thing is that the cost for each WAR is between $4.5M and $5M, which makes perfect sense given that WAR differential.

 

To put all that another way, this could be a better team - a contender, but not a dominant team - if Dipoto had assembled the pieces in the last offseason differently, but he would have had to pay much more.

 

Another alternate path would have been to not sign Hamilton and give Calhoun more at-bats, which would have likely resulted in equal or better results and a lot of money (and grief) saved, and a more flexible financial future. But hey, Arte wanted his big belly-flop splash.

Well considering how much Grienke is paid, I still would prefer Hanson (who is he again?) as there is only a difference of 0.3 fwar and a huge difference in salary.

 

Hunters 1.9 fwar is not a big deal to let go.  What is surprising is Hamiltong's 0.7 fwar!

[austin724]

We should have forced our players to take PED's LOL!!!!

[T.G.]

What really could have been...

 

Weaver

Lackey

Santana

Saunders

Corbin

Skaggs

 

if you really want to play that game...

[IEAngelsfan]

Trying to promote thought exercises here is like teaching a monkey astrophysics

You might be on to something.  There is a lot of crap being flung around in these threads.

[Chris]

Segura

[Lhalo]

What's yours? It's all meaningless.

 

 

 

Having an existential moment, Shane?

 

I laughed.

[Mark68]

So we'd be in third place instead of fourth? And we'd still be behind 4 teams for the 2nd wild card? Awesome!

[ettin]

What's yours? It's all meaningless.

 

Having an existential extenze moment, Shane? The point is...well, we're baseball fans? We like to think about baseball, not just spew vitriol and scream for our team like tribal lunatics - or some of us, at least. So this is a thought exercise for the enjoyment of thinking baseball fans. It shouldn't have to be justified for meaning on a baseball forum.

Fixed.

[The God of Runs]

Could have been so beautiful

Could have been so right

Could have been my lover

Everyday of my life

[tdawg87]

I would like to thank AJ for not making a thread title that says "What Could Of Been"

[Halos of Anaheim]

So we'd be in third place instead of fourth? And we'd still be behind 4 teams for the 2nd wild card? Awesome!

According to WAR, which is being generous. With the scenario AJ posted, we could be 10+ games over .500