Warfarin

6 hours ago, ukyah said:

he's also promoted a shitload who are basically sticking on the team, even if they're playing the shuttle game due to usage and injuries. he's going to do more promoting too with schanuel. i don't really care what the farm system looks like if most of your first rounders are playing on the team and others are contributing. the angels problem is injuries.

Yep.  Already he has essentially plugged up really difficult to fill spots (SS, C) with his draft picks and trades.  

I have referenced it before, but the Braves have had a fairly low farm system ranking for years now, but they have likewise aggressively promoted Strider, Harris, etc.  Minasian seems to take a similar approach as his former boss - promote players rapidly when you feel they are ready.  The byproduct of that is your "system ranking" is poor, but who cares?  If you are promoting young talent that is able to stick to the team, then great, that's success.

Neto, O'Hoppe, Moniak, Silseth - we are seeing guys drafted/traded for, promoted, and becoming solid contributors already.  Joyce and Mederos might soon join that list, given how aggressive the FO has been with their promotions as well.

Ohtani's future obviously will have a huge impact on us, but I think Minasian is a really good GM.  More than half of his signings/trades seemed to have panned out, and his player development process seems really good.  

4 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

The jury is still out because, as they say, the proof is in the pudding. All we know is that he's--at least--pretty good at drafting (e.g. Neto). But we haven't yet seen if his team is good at player development, simply because that takes at least several years.

That said, the signs aren't great with that big crop of international signings from a few years ago -  Vera, Ramirez, Placencia, etc. I can't remember if these guys were signed by Eppler or Minasian. But the next group were definitely Minasian: Guzman, then Rada and DeJesus, etc. So maybe we need to see how they develop as a test of his team. 

A lot of international picks, I believe, essentially commit fairly early, considerably before they are actually drafted.  I think the 2022 class is probably the first true class in which we can judge Minasian, and that class included Rada.  Time will tell now they will fare, but obviously Rada looks rather good so far.

27 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, and Minasian took that route rather than TG's.

 

OK, this is reasonable and hopeful at the same time. Maybe Perry can pull a rabbit out of a hat this offseason, I don't know. Maybe they actually sneak a wildcard berth--or come close enough--that Arte opens up the vault and not only keeps Ohtani, but goes hog-wild. And then maybe, the next few years is fun. I'd be happy with that.

But...the farm is as bad as I've ever seen. I'd feel more hopeful if Perry announces that Arte has green-lit a huge international scouting program, and if Perry starts hoarding prospects like Stoneman. A few 85-90 win seasons will be a lot better than the last eight years, and maybe one of them gets to 93 wins and a playoff erth, but I want to see some sign of long-term planning. I want to see some sign that A) Perry understands the importance of a great farm, and B) that Arte supports such efforts. 

So far we haven't even really seen A yet, let alone B. We've seen that Minasian is pretty good with draft picks. I've been vocal in liking the Schanuel pick, and maybe he'll be the 2024 Neto. But he's going to need a lot more than that. I don't mean tanking and getting high draft picks -- it is nice to get top 5 picks, but those can be risky too. For every Alex Bregman there's a Mark Appel. What I mean is draft after draft of savvy picks, smart development, international scouting, and hoarding prospects. 

Meaning, if you're going to go for it with free agency, leave the farm alone. Keep planting and cultivating, but don't continually Dipoto-ize it every year.

JMO, but I think Perry is far more adept at developing talent than any of his predecessors.  Time will tell, but I think even though our farm ranking is "poor," more of these guys will turn into good players than would have under Depot or Eppler.  I think Perry has assembled a strong player development team.  

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I get it, and I don't disagree that he "had to go for it." I just don't like the overall picture, which is as I illustrated in the first couple paragraphs: sending the franchise into deeper debt on lottery picks. As a rule, I'm more of the Bill Stoneman mold: hold onto your prospects, even unreasonably. That approach notoriously halted a Kendrick/Wood (and parts) for Miggy Cabrera trade which looked awful a year or two later, but it also built up substantial farm depth that gave the Angels their best run in franchise history.

I'm not on the team, but I'm also not a "win now, worry about tomorrow" fan. To me that is short-sighted and just leads to perennial disappointment. To me the farm is sacred, and the most important aspect of a franchise. Until the Angels build a good and vibrant farm system, we'll just get more of the same: year after year of 70-85 win seasons.

Hard to say exactly, but I am guessing that his boss told him to push for it.  If Arte is telling him to trade what he can to contend, he has to essentially comply, right?  And this was definitely a sellers market.

As I said before, I think trading Quero hurts, if anything because I think his value was higher than what we got in return, but I also don't think anyone was traded that will become a star or really good player, either, with the exception of Quero if he ends up being a good defensive catcher.

So - I expect Leone will take Mederos' spot on the roster once he arrives.  Not sure whose spot he will take.. maybe Rendon will go to the 60-man IL?  We'll see.

A lot of our farm system was dumped during this trade deadline.  Most (not all, but most) were from Eppler's regime.  I am thinking the current FO and player devo department has a different take on which prospects to keep and which to trade.

We'll see how this ultimately turns out, and how good Perry is at determining who to keep and who to trade.

Just now, jsnpritchett said:

That was my first thought, too: is he even marginally better than the current mop-up options? Lol.  Not a big deal either way, I guess, but I just hate trading controllable guys for random rentals who are AT BEST minor upgrades.

I am guessing the FO didn't see Jackson as a MLB player of any kind.  That, to me, is why they would trade him for a decent but unspectacular reliever who will be a FA at year's end.

1 minute ago, Hubs said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=leonedo01&t=p&year=2023

The vast majority of his appearances have been solid. But who leaves the pen for him?

 

Mederos is on the club right now.  I am guessing he will be optioned when Leone arrives.

Just now, TroutField said:

 

FIP of 5.26 this year, yikes 

At this time of year, I'd say look at the monthly splits to see if the trend is positive:

Not great, but it looks like he is showing some improvement and his K/9 jumped up in July - perhaps a sign of improvement?

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

He took that step forward that guys like Jackson really didn't.  He may not be a fully fleshed out player but he's at least shown he can play MLB caliber defense, run the bases and torch AA-AAA LHPs.  The defense and baserunning alone has value.

Honestly if he does well in a platoon it goes a long ways towards potentially answering a looming question in the OF.

Agreed.  I think he is more likely an MLB player than Adell is, simply because his defense, speed, and plate discipline should be enough to at least make him a 4th OF.  I think he has some more potential than that, and I see him as someone who was really hurt by the wiped out COVID season and injuries, as he was very raw and needed a ton of reps to improve.

Looking forward to see what he can do.

1 minute ago, TroutField said:

Now I’m thinking what a package of bush, Quero, Jackson, Albright could have brought back. 
 

The rest of the trades were fine but I don’t agree with this at all. 

Yeah, I'm not sure this trade was particularly necessary, but I'm interested to see what Perry saw in Leone.  I don't know too much about him, so I'll have to see what some of the reports indicate he can do.

Just now, TroutField said:

That’s a really poor trade. 6 years of control for a shitty pitcher? 

I don't think losing Jackson is a big deal.  I think the other prospects we traded had more value than he does.

Just now, Second Base said:

I'm really not sure why. Dominic Leone is not a good pitcher. 

Looks like he had a fairly solid July.  Denno if he figured out anything or improved somehow, as I don't know much about him, but that's the first thing that stands out as I look at his splits.

33 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Start him .vs lefties.

Absolutely.  He had a fantastic July and looks like he is showing good amounts of growth.  Should draw walks and play very good CF defense.  Worth some starts, IMO.

Adams should fit the current roster needs well.  He's a great defensive CF who can pinch run late in games.  We are a bit short in OF depth, so having him enables us to switch to a more optimal defensive configuration in the late innings.

Stefanic wasn't really doing too much for us and barely played.  At least this way, we have someone who can serve a greater function to the team.

5 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I was quietly hoping we'd sign Correa. Not because I'm a fan, but because I wanted another bona-fide hitter.

And Neto has basically been the same for a fraction of the cost. It's crazy how bad Correa is looking now, money wise.

That whole crazy saga this past winter with him, the Giants, Mets etc.... they dodged a huge bullet.

I think the morale to the story is most of those big money contracts turn out poorly.  Still, every team can take some gambles and calculated risks on that front, depending on their total payroll and where they might be in terms of producing talent.

With Trout and Rendon already on the books, and with the hope that they can sign Ohtani to what will likely be a 40-45mil AAV per year contract for an incredibly long time, it never really made sense to pursue a high cost SS.  The FO likely intended to push Neto quickly all along and hence were never seriously involved in any of the SS talks.

8 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

My concern is OF. If Trout does not come back until end of August using Moniak, Grichuk and Renfroe. Rengifo becomes 4th OF. Many do not like him in OF. Nothing on condition of Adell and Moniak due for a slump. 

A valid concern, but we just have to bridge the gap until Trout comes back.  I think with Drury's return likely imminent, that frees up Rengifo to move around more.  Given how good he has been offensively of late, he could start to see some time in the OF.  It ultimately comes down to how long Trout is expected to be out, though.  

4 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

He should, but JV has a full no-trade clause. 

Given that JV has ties to Los Angeles, and given that the Angels do have baseball's greatest star, I think there's a solid shot he'd waive his no-trade clause to come here.  Not a given like it'd be with the Astros or Dodgers, but I think there's a good shot for it.

1 hour ago, arch stanton said:

Moniak, Neto, and Thaiss weren’t even considered part of the roster in spring and have essentially saved the season 

What is interesting about Neto is I do remember in the offseason, various people insisting we pursue Turner and that we shouldn't consider Neto, as he was several years away and that it was essentially silly to worry about blocking him.

Fast-forward months later, and he is one of our most indispensable players, and has been more value than Trea Turner on a per PA basis in terms of fWAR.  Go figure, eh?

8 hours ago, totdprods said:

Honestly, I think we're done. At most there is a depth reliever move coming, but it won't be a big name, just another guy to hold down a spot until Devenski or Joyce come back.

The rotation is full... Ohtani, Giolito, Detmers, Sandoval, Canning, Anderson...and Silseth and Barria avail to spot start or plug in if someone's hurt. Suarez could come back into the fold too. The offense is stocked without any real clear spots to upgrade - it'd just be replacing someone we acquired a day ago at this point.

Sure, they could look at moving Sandoval or Canning, but I get a sense Perry is real hesitant to subtract anyone from the big-league club, both in a talent sense and clubhouse chemistry sense. Snell and Hader for a Sandoval makes the most sense - Snell is replaces Sandoval, Hader adds to pen, Padres get a good arm with control - but after sweeping Texas they're looking like they may try to sneak back into the race, and I don't think they ever really wanted to sell anyways. They've invested far too much into that team at this point and seem too stubborn to sell, even if makes the most team-building sense. Verlander feels like Houston or bust. I think he only picked NYM 'cause of the money. 

I know we can't assume everyone returns healthy, and that it'll be a numbers-crunch down the line if that day comes, but aside from maybe one pen spot....we're full between active roster and those theoretically returning. Maybe someone like Lugo or Lorenzen who could relieve and spot start in case someone goes down, but the demand for both is going to outweigh what we can offer someone who we really don't need. 

We have to be careful about stocking a staff that doesn't have optionable arms too. Soriano and Silseth are it right now, and they're contributing too much. Webb is probably expendable, but without Tucker he's also fine as the last guy on the staff.

We're down to one reliever or a catcher upgrade at most, I think. Anything further would be an extraordinary turn of fortunes in which we land a kick-ass SP on a crazy good deal; Sandoval+fringe prospect/guys like Walsh/Fletcher to St. Louis for Flaherty, Contreras' contract, maybe Gallegos....some sort of deal that one-stop shops a bunch of needs while hinging most of the value on one guy back. Highly, highly unlikely. But that move sets them up beautifully for a '23 run.

This is roughly my sentiment as well.  I do think if Perry can find a legit backend reliever though, he could pull off a trade.  If he does, then that reliever can take the spot of either Silseth or Soriano.  Given how Silseth looked in his last two starts here, I'd probably want to keep him stretched out as a SP in AAA, so that he can sub in whenever needed.

As you have rightly pointed out, it would be shocking to see everyone return to health, but assuming we somehow do, this is the roster we are looking at offensively:

C - O'Hoppe, Thaiss, Wallach

IF - Cron, Drury, Rengifo, Neto, Moose, Rendon, Escobar

OF - Moniak, Trout, Grichuk, Renfroe

DH - Ohtani

I left off guys who would be clearly optioned if players start returning (Velazquez, Stefanic, Adell).

We'd probably DFA Wallach to create roster space for O'Hoppe, which would be an easy fix.

The roster crunch would be in the infield, but all that said, I suspect Rendon is probably out for the year, so that somewhat alleviates that roster crunch.  I doubt Trout until at least towards the end of August.

But anyway, all that said - I think, as you said, our roster is likely full, with the exception of a reliever.

4 minutes ago, HBAngel13 said:

I would be hesitant to trade Sandoval period, but in this win-now mode, him and/or canning might be our biggest chips to bring back something significant. 

 I’m having a hard time envisioning what a Verlander package would look like?  I would imagine it would include cash coming back our way. Maybe it could be an opportunity to give Eppler back some of his own draftees?  Maybe include Fletcher?

I think it'd be basically similar to the trade the Rangers just did with the Mets - a prospect will go to the Mets, while they send Verlander and cash.  It seems the Mets are willing to buy prospects for including money in a trade, so that is likely what we would do.  

3 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Joyce has thrown 2 bullpen sessions last I heard. (Maybe 3 by now.) barring a setback he should definitely be back in August sometime. 

Thanks!  I missed that part about bullpen sessions - I thought he hadn't thrown yet.  

5 minutes ago, HBAngel13 said:

I was wondering about a Sandoval+ trade for Snell and Hader.  Verlander would be fantastic for this year, but that contract scares me.

I don't think I'd trade Sandoval for expiring contracts.  I would love Snell and Hader, but I'd elect to keep Sandoval over trading him for them.

While there are many contracts to fear, I don't think Verlander's is one of them.  He is basically only guaranteed one more year.  He has a vesting option, but if he gets hurt next year, then that is rendered moot.  TBH actually, I'd be pretty happy to get him - in case Ohtani leaves, then Verlander can be your ace for the next year.

I think he goes to either the Astros or Dodgers, though.  And on that note, with the Mets clearing all sorts of payroll, that is a bit concerning with Ohtani heading into free agency.  Knowing how much money Cohen has, he could offer Ohtani such an obscene, ridiculous contract that he'd have no choice but to accept it.

Just now, HBAngel13 said:

Would love if Joyce makes his way back.  He could be a major weapon in a playoff series. That said, I feel like his arm could detach from his torso on any given pitch.
 

What’s the word on Bachman?  Add these two back to the BP depth chart and we could have something special. 

Joyce has a lot of potential because of how hard he throws, but I think he needs to further improve his second pitch before he becomes a weapon for us.  No matter how hard you throw, you need an effective second pitch to keep hitters honest, and his second pitch, while improving, still needs work.

I expect to see another reliever acquired before the deadline, and whoever that is, I expect our late inning relievers will be Estevez, Moore, Lopez, and "acquired reliever."  Soriano, Loup, and Webb will serve more as middle inning relievers, and Barria will remain as the long reliever.