Warfarin

1 hour ago, Dick B Back said:

What's with all the Kinsler love? Am I just a dick that doesn't get it?

He’d be the cheapest to acquire for sure.  Just one year left on his deal, so if he has a down year, he’s gone anyway.

My preference is still Hernandez, but if his price tag is too expensive, then Kinsler is a decent, cheaper (in terms of prospects) alternative.

1B:  LoMo, as long as he accepts 2 years.  If his asking goes to 3, I think we pass.  I’d love Santana, but I’m thinking Eppler wants to keep accruing draft picks vs forfeiting them.

2B:  Kinsler.  He can be obtained cheaply and is still productive.  I would much rather have Hernandez, but the Phillies are under no obligation to move him.  Again, this move is done with keeping an eye on keeping our farm system in tact.

3B:  Valbuena / Marte.  Valbuena is signed for the year and does have some value, might as well use him.  I don’t think we will sign FAs at BOTH corners, so I am guessing this one stays the same.

SP:  No significant acquisitions, I hope.  We have a lot of depth, we just don’t have much front line talent.  I hope we don’t toss a multi-year 10mil/yr contract at an average starter for this reason.  If we can sign someone to an incentive-laden one year deal though, then that’s fine.

RP:  Resign Petit and acquire a LH reliever (McGee?).  We definitely need a lefty out of the pen, and I do think we address this.

Probably amounts to about 30-35 mil added this year, which keeps us comfortably under the salary cap.

2B Kinsler

CF Trout

LF Upton

1B Morrison

DH Pujols

RF Calhoun 

SS Simmons

3B Valbuena / Marte

C Maldonado

2 minutes ago, Hubs said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/poll-what-will-the-indians-do-with-jason-kipnis.html

Kipnis is one of their best players, but their best player is also a natural 2nd baseman, and has been playing third. They will want a ton for him, even off a down year, but he is also expensive, and they may need the payroll flexibility.

They have a full outfield and two young players at third besides Ramirez, so it may just be that they have nowhere to play Kipnis.

Ah, I see.  I’m going to imagine the cost for him will be pretty high.  That said, I’d be totally on board if we could acquire him.  Hernandez is my top choice, but he’d be my second if he were truly available.

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

1) Angels go left handed in FA.

1B - Logan Morrison 3/36.

2B- Neil Walker 2/22 with 14M option for 2020.

3B- Mike Moustakas 5/80.

Total payroll addition = $39M AAV.

2) Angels trade /FA combo.

1B - Calhoun assumes 1B duties.

2B - Trade Luis Valbuena for Jason Kipnis and Ryan Merritt.

3B - Zack Cozart switches from SS to 3B. 3/42.

RF - Giancarlo Stanton. The Angels swap Cron, Barria, Bedrosian, Canning, Jones for him.

Total payroll addition = 40M AAV.

 

Why would the Indians trade Kipnis?  That would be selling very low.  Can’t imagine they’d do that.

33 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

I Think Barria will be used as trait bate over Castillo, But both guys may not be traded either. The reason i think this, is that Castillo has more upside than Barria does,   I posted a small post on a few of our prospects a few days ago on the Prospect form. Personallyonce Castillo body fill up and we probably looking at a guy that is 6'2 190 + Lb, with a fastball that 90-93 and can hit as high as 95, with a plus change and a good third pitch. He has a chance to be a solid 3 that can give you 200 inning, I can all so see him being a 2 due to his really good control in the further. 

If everything plans out i could the followinggrades for Castillo and Barria

Barria- FB- 55   Curveball- 50 change- 60  Command- 65 overall- 55

Castillo- Fb- 60   Curve-55       Change- 60    Command ---60      overall - 60

Jewell is a reliever to be with his Fb/ Changeup and slider comb. 

     

I'd rather not think of any of these guys as trade bait.  The Angels' dearth of minor league talent has been well-chronicled, but it appears to be turning around now.  I'd like to hang onto as many of these guys as possible, especially guys like Barria, who could be a cheap backend starter for us for a number of years.

Depth gets you through the season and star talent carries you in the postseason.  We certainly have some legit star talent on this team, but we need more depth to carry us through.  And well, perhaps another star, too.

51 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I think at any rate, Eppler is in good position to score a couple of deals at 1B and 2B. The market (free agent and trade) just happens to be flooded with both. I don't think he'll need to strike quickly and outbid anyone. I think he'll be able to sit back until a couple weeks after the winter meetings (not later because then you're the desperate one) and pick a quality player that wants to play for a contender in So-Cal.

I think LoMo just fits for us, and 2/25 for a player in his prime that can get on base 35% of the time, hits 35 HR's and play quality defense is a steal. And as far as 2B goes, I think someone that's been posturing is going to blink. The Rangers will trade Profar, I'm convinced, but I also get the feeling the Marlins will feel this is their opportunity to sell high and get out from burdensome contracts and they'll be eager to make a deal with Gordon, on the premise that we inherit his contract (not a problem) and send them a decent prospect in return.

The more I think about it, the more I like LoMo as an option to fill 1B for us.  Santana is the superior player, but he would cost a draft pick and probably require an extra year's worth of a deal at the least.  It's possible LoMo had a fluke season and regresses back to his previous form, but at least if he's just signed to 2 years, that's not a huge risk.

I'd pass on Gordon though.  If Hernandez's price tag is too much, then I'd just as soon rather look at other trade/FA options before Gordon.  

I can see both Barria and Hermosillo contributing to the big league club this year for sure.

43 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Sigh

 

Well, it was fun daydreaming while it lasted.

The Giants are the favorite, IMO.  They are on the west coast and have a fantastic recent history.  If the Giants take on Gordon’s contract AND send those prospects over, then they’ll get Stanton.  

25 minutes ago, ettin said:

At the end of 2020 Stanton will have $218M left over his remaining 8 seasons (this includes his 9th season $10M buyout) which is $27.25M per year.

J.D. Martinez is about to hit $30M per year in the coming weeks when he signs his contract. Next year, in the 2018-2019 off-season, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Clayton Kershaw are going to rise up into the $34M-$38M range per year.

That means in the 2020-2021 off-season, two years later, it is not unreasonable to believe that Stanton, assuming he stays healthy, would command close to $40M per year on a 7 year deal which will be close to $280M give or take which is quite a bit more than the $218M if he does not opt-out. No matter how you spin it he will probably pull in at least $50M more in free agency if he opts-out.

Either way the Angels would win in this scenario. If he opts-out the Angels have gotten three years of an elite power hitter in his prime. If he stays the Angels will almost certainly get some surplus value over the remaining 8 years he is controlled, even if he declines sharply in his mid-to-late 30's.

I do agree Warfarin that there is some potential risk, mostly in terms of Giancarlo's health, but I think this is a pretty safe contract to pursue and more importantly we should only be paying for the likely 3 years he would be here before he very likely opts-out (as I suspect many other teams have realized themselves).

I will be shocked if JD Martinez hits 30 million annually.  Boras is reportedly looking for 7/210, but I would be beyond stunned if he gets something close to that.

Fair points about Stanton.  I would personally still avoid him, as we are going to need to soon give Trout a new monster contract too.  If Stanton underperforms or opts in, we will be paying close to 100 million for just 3 players (Trout, Stanton, Pujols).  I’d rather diversify and spread risk by distributing dollars across various players then concentrating it so heavily on a few guys.

5 minutes ago, ettin said:

First of all it really doesn't matter if they are right-handed or not if they still hit RHP well, which all three of Trout, Upton, and Stanton do (3-year wRC+ vs. RHP, in order,: 166, 171, 190 (Trout); 134, 106, 118 (Upton); 141, 107, 144 (Stanton)).

Also I am not sure, other than prospects, why we would want to spend $450M on Harper when we could commit to Stanton, for likely only 3 years when he reaches his opt-out, for $107M and prospects? Stanton is the better value play if that is what Eppler is trying to achieve.

I think that is the longest shot out of every possibility out there. We would have to grossly exceed the Luxury Tax plus we would be competing against the deep pockets of the Nationals, Yankees, Dodgers, and Phillies. I'd say it is nearly impossible simply based on competition, much less financials and a commitment from Moreno to blow WAY past our spending levels of past seasons.

I see your point, and again, I would not sign him.  Harper has posted a wRC+ if 173/117/209 over the past 3 years against RHP, just for the sake of comparison.  Is that enough to justify the extra 10 million or so Harper will command per year vs Stanton?  Probably not, no.

I do disagree with your assessment that Stanton will probably opt out.  His current contract is through his age 38 season.  It’s hard to imagine him doing much better.  If he mashes 60 plus homers for each of the next 3 years and stays entirely healthy, then maybe, but I think it’s much more likely he keeps his current contract.

5 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

I hate looking at baseball this way. Everywhere that the team isn't #1 in baseball can be upgraded. This is a list of the most easily upgradeable positions for the Angels. It's easier to go from -1.0 WAR to +1.00 WAR generally, but it's not like you improve the team any more doing that than from going from 4 WAR to 6 WAR.

Good point, but as you mentioned, it’s easier to find a player to help the team go from -1 to +1, and almost assuredly cheaper than trying to find someone to help your team go from +4 WAR to +6.

It’s a useful tool because it enables you to identify specific areas of need that you can help improve with the limited financial resources available.  As mentioned above, trading for Hernandez could enable us to add roughly 4-5 WAR alone, which is a huge upgrade.  This is why, to me, this should be our greatest offseason priority.

2 minutes ago, Zardawg16 said:

Can anyone see this as even a potential possibility with getting Harper?? Our squad would be super flawed but we would have the best outfield since the 61’ Yankees. 

 

 

 

I don’t, and like I said, I wouldn’t do it anyway because we’d be committing a significant chunk of resources to a single asset that is unlikely to provide commensurate returns.  

But yeah, with Harper, Trout, and Upton, we’d probably have one of the best outfields in the history of the game, lol.

42 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I mostly agree. I want stanton, and i think he (or someone like him) is a perfect add because it allows the team to still threaten when trout is human (or leaves for FA). 

Thwt said, thr money and contrsct length are scary, and the wise move very well could be to stay away. Especially if it blocked us from aquiring pitching down the road.

Still...oppurtunities like this dont come around often. Especially ones where the player id saying "i want to play there".

I think personally that as much as there is to be learned by bad contracts like pujols (which i dont think anyone could have predicted at the time), hamilton etc, you also cant ignore beltran...and beltre...guys we ignored that would have been perfect fits but were seemingly too expensive. Then you end up paying more during the length of their contracts for a combo of far lesser players.

Ive said from the beginning stanton doesnt end up here, and its very likely thats a blessing. But i still think they need to at least seriously check it out.

All great points.  For the right player, I am not averse to pursuing a large deal.

With Stanton though, we already have two significant right handed power hitters in our lineup (Trout, Upton).  If we really wanted to commit ourselves to a long-term deal, we might as well wait until next offseason and go all-in with Harper, who would fit between Trout and Upton perfectly in the lineup.

I wouldn’t do it for all the reasons I already stated about long-term contracts, but if I were to pick one player who I would opt for, it’d be Harper over Stanton because I feel he is a better fit given the current team we have.

20 minutes ago, rottiesworld said:

It’s not even fun to have hope of getting a great free agent, when all the free agents want to go to Yankees or Cubs or Red Sux, even Doggies.

Truth be told, I find more satisfaction from the "under the radar" moves that pan out, like Bridwell.

1 hour ago, ettin said:

Don't get me wrong Scotty I'm not saying free agency isn't the best choice. In regard to Carpenter the latest word is that the Cardinals are considering him in a super-utility role but when you look at his $13.75M, $14.75M, and $18M option for 2018, 2019, and 2020, respectively and you add in the fact that they are pursuing Stanton (i.e. adding a crap-ton of salary), retaining Matt seems superfluous. I think he is potentially available. Similar situation with Belt.

You should read the Corner Infield Primer tomorrow I cite the articles about the Giants wanting to move Belt. More importantly I think the Angels line up well with the Giants if they both wanted to do a trade. In fact one I can think of right off the top of my head is a Belt for Calhoun deal, straight-up. Belt has an extra year of control but has twice as much total salary on the books.

If we could get Belt along with Panik in some sort of packaged deal, then that'd be fantastic.  I doubt the Giants are looking to move Panik, but if we absorb Belt's full contract, then perhaps something could be worked out.  Calhoun + Cron + SP prospect for Belt + Panik?  Would help them clear some payroll (to perhaps help them land Stanton) and would also give them a solid starting RF (who could probably platoon with Pence, since they are looking to move Pence to more of a part-time role).  We could even offer to take back Denard Span (has 1 year left on his contract + a mutual option), who could serve as our 4th OF.  Would provide the Giants with roughly 12-15 million of payroll relief, provide a starting RF alternative option, and clear the way for a bigger acquisition for them.

41 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Yeah,  but Stanton is different. Hes a generational guy, and hes openly saying he wants to come home.

The dodgers will be freeing up significant money here soon...they will still expensive compares to the rest of the world, but not for them.

Kills me because stanton is basically gift wrapping himself to them.

I see your point and agree that Stanton is a generational talent.

That said, I don’t see Friedman doing this at all. The Dodgers are big on both positional and financial flexibility, and this would greatly hamper their future financial flexibility.

The Dodgers can even go back to 2011, when Matt Kemp posted a ridiculous season in his mid/late 20s, with a WAR of 8.4, and rewarded him with an 8 yr, 160 million contract.

In the 6 seasons since that monstrous deal, he has a cumulative WAR of 5.0.  Outfield is a tough gig that requires a good amount of athleticism, and all they need to do is look at how long term contracts turned out for Kemp, Ethier, Crawford.

For those same reasons, I would pass on Stanton, even if all the Marlins wanted us to do was to pick up 250mil of the remaining deal and not send a single prospect.  These monster contracts virtually never turn out well.

6 minutes ago, JarsOfClay said:

For everyone's reference since there seems to be confusion about our biggest areas of need:

According to WAR

1. DH -1.3 WAR (Dead Last in MLB)  (two times worst than KC)

2. 2B  -1.2 WAR (Dead Last in MLB) (4 times worst than TEX)

3. 3B .   .4 WAR (4th worst in MLB)

4. 1B     .4 WAR (5th worst in MLB)

So our biggest area of need is actually DH, but Pujols is not going anywhere.  So the #1 focus should really be 2B.  I think Cowart can put up an amazing Dwar at least at 3B and if he can hit it would be a huge bonus so I would give him a shot there and instead focus on impoving 2b and 1b.

 

This highlights the huge benefit of acquiring Cesar Hernandez.  We'd go from a -1.2 WAR at 2B to a 3.3 WAR, or a 5+ WAR turnaround.  I know past performance does not guarantee future returns, but assuming no drastic changes, that's a significant turnaround at a single position, and it's a reason as to why I think second base is the prime target this offseason.

If we can improve either 1B or 3B (whichever ends up being the better value play), then we could possibly add another 2-3 WAR in that spot, or a 7-8 WAR turnaround in offseason at just two positions.  Combine that with a full season of Upton, some (hopefully) improved health from SP, a (hopefully) full season from Trout, and that's a huge improvement from one season to the next.

3 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

I see the dodgers trading puig, Peterson,  etc for Stanton.  They are pissed they missed the ring by 1 game and are going to double down.  

I don't see this happening at all.  Maybe the Dodgers of the past, but not Friedman's Dodgers.  The biggest contract that he has given out to date with the Dodgers was the 5/85 contract he gave out to Jansen.  The second highest was to Turner at 4/64.  Friedman is not going to trade for a 300mil contract player unless the Marlins willingly absorb at least 1/3 of that contract, if not more.  Just doesn't jive with the way Friedman has operated that team since taking over.

2 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

How about make a play for both Longoria & Archer?

According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the Rays' offseason plans include trading "at least a couple of veterans to reduce payroll."

No veteran appears to be safe, with Topkin naming Evan Longoria, Chris Archer and Alex Colome as possible trade bait. Longoria's contract never gets obscene, but he's owed up to $94 million through 2023 and, while he doesn't have 10/5 rights to veto any trade, Topkin says the club would likely only deal him with the third baseman's blessing. Making things more difficult is the fact that Longoria's .261/.313/.424 line this past season probably doesn't inspire many teams to pony up for the 32-year-old. The only certainty with the Rays this winter seems to be that nothing is certain.

 

 

Source: Tampa Bay Times

Archer holds an immense amount of value.  We don't have the farm system to acquire him.  Even if we agreed to take on Longoria's contract, I still don't think we'd be able to swing that deal.  

35 minutes ago, ettin said:

We got a collective 0.6 WAR out of 1B in 2017 and 1.6 WAR at 3B. Platooning Cron and Valbuena never made sense to me because throughout C.J.'s career he has for the most part stunk against LHP. They both hit RHP fairly well but not LHP. A Cron/Marte or Valbuena/Marte platoon makes a lot more sense to me.

I agree with both you and @Dochalo that Eppler could upgrade at one or both corners depending on how the trade and free agent markets treat him. But based on the low production and other factors which I will discuss in the 'Final Thoughts' article at the end of the Primer Series, upgrading at 1B and putting Valbuena at 3B probably makes the better strategic sense for the 2018 season if Billy can manage it with the current set of resources.

As much as I want Thaiss to succeed and become a productive member his development timeline doesn't appear to be moving along as fast as the team would have hoped. If the Angels sign someone like Santana or trade for someone like Carpenter it could give Matt a lot of breathing room to develop on a more normal time frame and gives the Angels flexibility to insert him when he's more ready.

Moose is going to get 5 years minimum at about $16M-$20M per season. The market doesn't have very many quality 3B so he will get paid unless he really does want to take a hometown discount. I think he'd make a better 1B to be honest in the long run. Eppler could sign him and have Valbuena play 1B and Moose 3B in 2018 and then once Luis is gone move him over to 1B. His defense would probably play up better there in the long term.

Those are some excellent points.

I do feel it's unlikely we'll see BOTH corner IF spots upgraded in a single offseason.  We have Valbuena, Cron, and Marte who can all, to some extent, play some kind of role.  I would also prefer not to have several corner IFers locked down to a multi-year contract, knowing that we'll need some dollars to upgrade other positions soon (i.e. catcher, as Maldonado is entering the last year of his contract) in the upcoming offseasons.

I like Santana's offensive game better than Moose's.  He has a better eye and grasp of the strike zone, as evidence by his nearly 1:1 BB/K ratio.  My concern with Santana is he is at the age where decline usually happens, and I feel we'd be paying him for his past accomplishments and not for future contributions.  I'd strongly consider LoMo too.  It concerns me that he's only had the one good year in his contract season, but if we can sign him to a 2/24-ish type contract, then that helps mitigate risk, since even if he proves to be a fluke, we'd just be stuck with him for 2 years.  And he also has the benefit of not costing any draft compensation.

With Moose, if he indeed gets an offer for 5 years, then let him go elsewhere, no biggie.  There aren' many contenders looking for a 3B, and if you recall last offseason, Justin Turner signed at a considerably under-market contract to stay with the Dodgers (most thought he'd get 5 years, too).  I think some of the big market teams that want a stud 3B will wait next offseason for Machado to hit the market.  So with Moose, I say only sign him *IF* you can get him at a below-market value.  I know people say that's unlikely with Boras, so again, if this is true, then forget it.

All that said, if we can acquire Hernandez (my #1 offseason target) and Santana, then I'd say that's a pretty successful offseason.  I'd like to acquire a lefty reliever as well (Minor?  McGee?  someone else?), but I feel we can possibly fill that cheaply as well if those options prove to be too expensive.

Lineup:

2B  Hernandez (S)

CF Trout (R)

1B Santana (S)

LF Upton (R)

DH Pujols (R) **I'd bump him lower but realize that's unlikely**

RF Calhoun (L)

3B Valbuena / Marte platoon

SS Simmons (R)

C Maldonado (R)

This works out well, too.  

3 minutes ago, ettin said:

You forgot Justin Upton?

Just teasing. We (me included) often forget we have made a really significant off-season move already.

As I have mentioned in the Middle Infield section of the Primer and in tomorrow's Corner Infield section, the two most likely areas to upgrade are 2B and 1B based on our grand total production of -0.1 and 0.6 WAR, respectively, last season. However those upgrades will only make sense if we can find a player or players that can significantly improve over Cowart's and Cron's projected 2018 WAR of 0.6 and 1.2 respectively (which we should be able to find quite easily).

I agree that 2B is the biggest area of need, but I would probably prioritize 3B above 1B.  I think we could get by with Valbuena / Cron platooning at first.  Valbuena is entering a contract year, and after a slow start last year, he performed well enough where I have some hope that he could be a decent contributor next year.  Nothing special, but he can certainly be a complementary component for us.  We also have Thasis coming up through the minors, although I don't know if he'll ultimately have the bat to stick at first.

I am personally in the sign Moose camp, but ONLY to a "reasonable" contract.  Max of 4 years, no more than 15mil AAV.

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

I really prefer Santana still but with the interest he's getting, I don't know if he's going to be an easy target or worth less than a 4/$64m or so, which would be approaching my max.

Any of the LoMo, Alonso, Duda tier would be fine on a 2-yr/$10-12m annually deal. Risky but not too expensive to gamble. I just can't bank on Cron anymore and wait two months for him to hit.

I'm starting to come around to the idea of filling out the infield with one of these 1B, Walker at 2B, and Frazier at 3B, and just being set across the board for the next 2-3 years. Everyone under contract, no glaring holes that need filling year to hear, sink or swim with this year's FA class.

You wouldn't tie up insane money and you'd have your team set for the next two or three years and just build your farm in that time to see what happens with Trout. Save all your prospects, no more need to trade prospects midseason unless it's for pitching, and keep a stable vet team so we don't have to fill a million holes each offseason. It all turns over right around when Trout/Pujols contracts are up and hopefully by then we will have built a very strong farm and have insane money freeing up all at once.

Walker 2B, Santana 1B, Trout CF, Upton LF, Pujols DH, Frazier 3B, Calhoun RF, Simmons SS, Maldonado C - good blend of handedness, OBP, power, and a ton of vet experience without anyone aside from Pujols being too old. Good defense, not much speed though. Lot of lineup flexibility, keeps pressure off Pujols and Upton from carrying the team (we already know Trout can) - re-sign Norris or Petit or both, sign Reed if you have enough money. Let the pitching sort itself out with what we have in place the next couple years, trade Cron for Profar and have him be the UT IF, and then let Eppler just keep unearthing cheap gems in the meantime.

Personally, I don't think Walker really fits Eppler's vision.  He seems to heavily prioritize up the middle defense, and Walker's admittedly subpar and bound to only get worse with time.  I'd try to push for a trade of Hernandez from the Phillies.  I don't know what they're looking for specifically (most likely young SP I imagine), but Hernandez would solve both our 2B and leadoff issue for at least several years.

My preference at 1B is Santana, but I'd stop at 3 years, which takes him through his age 34 season.  If someone gives him 4 guaranteed years, then just tip your cap and move along.  We'd also have to surrender our 2nd round pick for him, so in some ways, I feel LoMo might be a better target.  If he costs 2/24, then that's fine with me too - we get to keep our pick and add a lefty power hitter to provide some kind of lineup balance.

I would like to sign Moose if he comes with a  reasonable contract (4/60), which means he'd be with us through his age 32 season.  He'd also provide some lineup balance for us.  I feel 3B is a bigger priority than 1B, as I am okay getting by with a combo of Valbuena and Cron for another season if needed.

Lineup:

Hernandez 2B (S)

Trout CF (R)

Morrison 1B (L)

Upton LF (R)

Moose 3B (L)

Pujols DH (R)

Calhoun RF (L)

Simmons SS (R)

Maldonado C (R)