Warfarin

On 7/14/2023 at 2:23 AM, Angel Oracle said:

Would Yamamoto in FA be a good pitching pivot, if not re-signing Ohtani?

If none of the pending FAs including Ohtani stays (also Renfroe, Loup, Urshela, Escobar, Moose, and already DFA’d Tepera), that’s $60-$65 million under the tax threshold for 2024.

 

 

Yeah, there is a lot of payroll space that could be made available.  

There aren't a lot of compelling free agents, but I think we'd see Minasian employ a "spread the money around" philosophy.  While this team is going through a rough patch right now, they do look like a better team with more depth than they were just a year ago.  I would expect to see more signings like Drury, Estevez, etc - guys signed to fairly short-term deals.  They don't all pan out (Anderson, Loup, Tepera), but some have been rather good.  The key to all of this, though, is to keep developing internal talent.  

Again though, this is probably why it makes sense to trade Ohtani now.  They could ship him to the Dodgers and probably get at least a really solid hitter (Busch?) and probably a solid mid-rotation SP (any of their SP prospects not named Miller).  That would seem to be a good start, and then you sprinkle it in with some calculated gambles and good prospect development (this is the key part), and we could contend fairly quickly.

14 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I agree with everything you said, but my concern is if Arte “turns” on Perry after this season. Whether that’s outright firing him or not listening to him.

I don’t agree with it, but it’s not hard for me to envision a scenario where Arte essentially says “I tried your idea to spread the money out, and it didn’t work, so I’m gonna do it my way.”

That’d be short-sighted and stupid, but it’s not far-fetched with Arte.

Another factor is that if Ohtani leaves, Arte’s may want to make a splash on a flashy name in order to keep attendance up. The tricky thing is this free agent class doesn’t really have those guys on the offensive side, so maybe he signs a big name pitcher?

None of us can really know, but I feel like Arte effectively trusted Minasian enough to not force him to sign Turner.  I also don't think there is really anyone of note to sign this offseason either, or at least anyone in the same stratosphere as Ohtani is.

I think Perry would strongly advise against signing a pitcher to a long-term contract.  We'll see what happens.

Having read parts of this thread, I think there is a general anxiety with this team in terms of "we have to win this year, or Ohtani is gone and this franchise is screwed."

I think losing Ohtani would hurt, but I think the organization can recover.

There are a lot of signs for optimism.  Their farm system is growing and looking stronger.  Minasian seems to have a good idea of how to build an organization.

 @Trendon you mentioned that the Angels will probably just go right out and sign someone else to a stupid contract, but I actually don't think that's true.  I remember a quote this spring about how Arte wanted to go sign Trea Turner, feeling he was the missing piece, but Minasian effectively told him we need a lot more than just Turner and instead to spread the money (and risk) around.  I think he would do the same this offseason, if he had some money (which he will, if Ohtani does not re-sign).

Neto was drafted, came up, and looked good.  O'Hoppe looked good in his cameo appearance.  Moniak has been recalled and is performing surprisingly well.  I see what appears to be an overall strong organizational development process occurring.  It may not be in time to retain Ohtani, but we can still be a good, successful organization even if he moves on, and I feel like Minasian is helping us head in that direction.

8 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

That’s where the extra slot money remaining comes in handy.

Maybe enough for Kent and also another HS pitcher selected well under slot?

Yeah, it's hard to say.  I believe Dana got a record last year for the round he was drafted in, and he got around a 1.5mil bonus.  

I believe Nolan will sign for somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5mil underslot (maybe 3.5mil ish, whereas our allowance is 5.2mil for the 11th pick).  Should have plenty of money to offer Kent.  I think we also signed a few senior sign guys at the end of the second day, which means we'll probably largely pocket those bonuses too.  I think we'll see two significant overslots, with one of them being Kent.

24 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Good competition for the 3B job, as Rendon will need to move to 1B at some point.   Jackson could also develop into a solid super utility guy who plays some 3B if needed.

Rendon's bat currently doesn't really play at 1B, or 3B for that matter.  I kind of feel like if he doesn't start to perform at least decently, next year might be his last, if the farm can develop and churn some talent to help push him off the club.  Next year would be year 5 of 7, and if he looks like he's still a sunk cost, it might be time just to move on.

Just now, Angel Oracle said:

Dana was drafted on the 3rd day a year ago and given significant over slot money.   Has worked out well so far, in A+ ball a year out of HS.

Right, and they used the same idea with Albright, too.

It seems to be a solid overall approach - drafting a good amount of players you can accelerate through the farm system, but complementing that with some high-risk guys that you want to take a shot on and sign for overslot.  

In 2021, they drafted a ton of pitchers, several of which have accelerated through the farm.  They did the same last year with Neto, and both Joyce and Mederos have made cameo appearances.  Would not be surprised to see several of the 2023 draft picks play by the first half of next year.

5 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Is Kent going to get some of the remaining slot money from drafting Schanuel?   Projected pick # 126, but went over 100 picks later.

Probably.  That's why it's best to reserve judgment of individual picks and instead look at the entire draft on the whole.  I think they'll have a chunk of money to offer on their 11th or 12th round pick, too, so probably two significant overslot options to complement Schanuel's underslot.

5 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Looking at just Marcheco’s stats, has excellent control and low hits allowed.

What is his pitch repertoire?  Just age 20

 

Courtesy of MLB.com:

Quote

Marcheco’s success has stemmed more from his pitchability than his pure stuff. He has a three-pitch mix with a fastball that currently sits in the 90-92 mph range and plays well because he locates it in the strike zone. He backs it up with an average slider and has decent feel for a changeup. 

The 6-foot-1 right-hander already has the ability to set up hitters and mix his pitches well, throwing a ton of strikes with all three offerings. There’s some funk and deception in his delivery, a reason why he was able to strike out 13.1 per nine and hold hitters to a .216 average-against in 2022. Now he’ll get to see how his average-stuff profile plays over an entire full season.

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

Give him a 3B glove and lots of practice.

If he works out at 3B, then that’s less bad sidearm throws by Rendon as he splits time between 3B and 1B.

I think it's probably safe to assume that Rendon will play only half a season at best moving forward, so it's a good idea to have multiple guys who can help cover the inevitable injury absences.

11 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

I like his bat, but I'm not sure where he ultimately plays defensively. It seems that he'd make a great DH?

Hard to say, but there's time to figure that out.  Good teams seem to help make players passable at certain positions.  I think though that this belies the fact that more than anything else, this team needs offense, which is effectively what we saw them prioritize at the top of this draft - guys who can hit, regardless of position.  

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

No chance that’s happening. 
 

Ohtani isn’t going to forgo free agency to sign a deal in 48 hours in a place he’s never played. 

Oh yeah, I know.  I was just saying that the only way we could expect to extract that large of a return for Ohtani would only be if the acquiring team could guarantee that Ohtani would be staying there long-term.  Otherwise, no team will give up that kind of bounty for 2 months of a player, even if it's the best player in the game.

4 hours ago, Hubs said:

Add Pages and Cartaya.

I think the only way we can get the moon from the Dodgers (or any team) is if we granted a negotiation window for that team to come to a long-term contract extension with Ohtani.  If we did and that transpired, I imagine we could get a better trade package, as the acquiring team would be guaranteeing Ohtani's long-term stay.  I think that is the only way we could get a package like Miller, Cartaya, etc .. those are top 20 prospects in the game.

14 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

The Dodgers are an almost too obvious trade partner.

Here's what I could see actually happening:

The Dodgers get: Ohtani and Renfroe

The Angels get: Bobby Miller and Miguel Vargas

Vargas isn't playing well in 304 PA this year: .197/.305/.367, 0.1 WAR, but looks like a solid future Benintendi/Verdugo type. Renfroe is an improvement for the next few months. Miller has been solid and has upside, but Ohtani is better.

This benefits both teams: The Dodgers get an upgrade in the outfield and the best player in the world, including first dibs on offering him an offer he can't refuse. the Angels get an immediate replacement in the rotation, and a solid outfielder to compete with Adell and Moniak.

If the Dodgers prefer Ward, that's fine too.

I think it'd be hard to pry Miller from the Dodgers, given he's filling an immediate need for them right now too, but that's probably a fairly solid deal overall.  

The Renfroe part is a solid idea given their need for a RHH, but if the Dodgers did trade for Ohtani, consider that they already have JD Martinez, who is a full-time DH.  They'd have to put him somewhere, and I'm guessing that'd be LF, so likely that mitigates the need for Renfroe for them.

Alternatively, maybe they can look at some combination of Sheehan, Busch, etc.  Busch would become the immediate DH to replace Ohtani, Sheehan looks like he might be a solid mid-rotation SP (although maybe there are better choices, I'm not really sure, I just know they have a lot of SP prospects).  Busch also can capably play 1B/3B, so he can essentially become Rendon's backup and play 3B whenever he gets injured again.

6 hours ago, REDneck said:

Why would this remotely be a scenario?

Well, I guess the best case scenario is we go on a run, win the title this year, and so on..

But given injuries and the current condition of the team, then I think the above would be the next best case scenario - you add multiple top prospects for "loaning" Ohtani out for 2 months, then get him back for many years thereafter as well as the prospects you just acquired.  

1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Personally I say trade him to either TB or Atlanta so he can get a ring. And get that out of his system.

Then offer him 800 mill next year to come back.

I'd also make sure Trout and the rest of the guys keep texting him when he's a brave/ray, telling him hoe much better the weather and mexican food is here.

I referenced this before, but it'd actually be really awesome if the Angels have some kind of agreement with Ohtani such that they can flip him for some really good prospects, let him pursue a title this year, then re-sign him to a huge deal in the offseason (similar to the Yankees and Chapman).  Then not only do you get to keep Ohtani, but you also get 1-2 top 100 prospects and a few other solid prospects too.  Highly unlikely, but that'd be a pretty cool outcome.

5 minutes ago, Dave Saltzer said:

I really hope that Walsh recovers and rediscovers his form. And, if he does, he can always go back to the OF to play so then we have 2 good lefty bats!

I'm also interested in seeing how Tucker Flint progresses.  He's had a subpar year, but he was aggressively promoted and the FO seems to view him highly.  

On 7/6/2023 at 3:19 PM, Trendon said:

the PCL's inflated offense means his line isn't actually as good as it may appear.

By wRC+, he's 15% worse than league average.

If anything, I think he could have a future as a 4th OF.  Strong CF defense, great speed, and some degree of plate discipline.  I remember he was a very raw talent when drafted, and likely the time he missed due to injuries and the wiped out COVD MILB year had a further impact on his development.

I think he could be added to the 40-man roster this offseason, as the FO sees how he can develop with more MILB reps.

2 hours ago, Dave Saltzer said:

Absolutely! And I'm even more excited about what they can do with the money that they are likely to save. This is a deep class and there will be some good HS guys to get in later rounds if we can offer them the money.

 

Yesterday I interviewed Mason Albright and we talked about him waiting to get the money he wanted in the 12th round (which set a record in the pool era until the following year when the Angels broke it for Madden). 

 

I like how Perry is taking a holistic approach to the draft and spreading the money around a bit so that we are far more likely to have a successful draft. 

You nailed it, and I think you hit the nail on the head with your analysis as well -

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Schanuel could start in AA this year and could be ready by the middle of next year giving the Angels a quick return on their investment.

Pending health, I think there's a strong probability that he'll be in the majors in 2024.  If Ohtani does depart, this team has a huge LHH hole in the lineup, given Walsh's struggles and that Moniak's track record is obviously sparse at best.  

Schanuel seems like a high probability MOTO LHH that we can likely have in the lineup in less than a year from now, which fits the drafting style that Minasian has shown thus far.

5 minutes ago, Revad said:

True enough.  It would be best to trade Ohtani but I think this is what we’ll be left with.  

Nobody wants to trade a superstar, but I suspect by now they probably have a pretty decent gauge on whether he intends to stay or not.  If they feel he is indeed leaving, then I think you can still probably get 2 top 100 prospects for him in a trade.  The Dodgers probably wouldn't part with Miller, but you can likely get their next best SP prospect, someone like Busch (who would probably immediately take Ohtani's DH role and can also play 1B/3B), and some other solid pieces as well.  Not "fair' value, but several MLB-ready prospects is certainly better than a draft pick.

2 minutes ago, Dave Saltzer said:

We have to see this as drafting a special bat whoi happens to play 1B and can get to the Majors quickly. I agree that he could be a 280 hitter, but his OB should be higher, and 25+ HRs at his peak. We need a lefty MOTO bat like that.

 

Again, we also have to look at it holistically. There will be many good players in the 3rd, 4th, 11th, and 12th rounds for us to sign. If you like Ben Joyce, thank Zach Neto for signing under slot so that we could go over slot for Joyce. 

 

Thinking of our 2022 draft, that draft may go down as one of our best overall drafts. Jake Madden and some of the other guys we got look really good.

 I think, so far, Minasian seems to be pretty good at building the organization on the whole.  I know people are generally disappointed that this team didn't become a contender overnight, and likely Ohtani will be departing, but it seems that our minor league system has grown considerably more under Minasian than it has under his predecessors, and I think he (and the development team he has in place) has a pretty good eye for talent and developing players.  

We'll see how the rest of the draft pans out, but I agree that the 2022 draft seems to have been a rather good one thus far.

3 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Looking to draft another Caden Dana from HS?

Perhaps.  But they will clearly have a surplus of money to use in subsequent rounds, so they can use that surplus to take calculated shots.

I think that Nolan is a high probability MLB player who will likely reach the MLB rather quickly (a la Neto), but I think this pick was also about having money available for future rounds as well.

40 minutes ago, AngelsFanSince86 said:

To specifically answer your question, nobody wants to trade Ohtani if he plans to stay in Anaheim. But the thought is that he's likely to walk. To miss the playoffs and also miss a chance to trade the greatest mid season acquisition in MLB history would be something only a poorly run organization would allow.

If Ohtani won't commit, at the very least, in a, "I want to stay here if you are willing to pay, but I do need to test the market to see my value" type of agreement, then they need to trade him.

I said it on other threads from a couple weeks ago. They needed to go at least .500 against the d backs, dodgers, and Padres to hold onto the playoff/buyer mentality. They absolutely failed that. Their schedule is rough over the next month and I expect they will fall under .500. This is not a winning team and unless you are 100% that you can sign Ohtani, he needs to be traded to make the team better in the future. 

If they don't trade him and don't sign him, it will go down as one of the worst mistakes in recent history. Just adds to the rendon, Pujols, Hamilton, Upton, Wells, etc mistakes. At some point they need to start making smart/tough decisions. We'll see if that starts this season.

Now, if they don't trade him and then also sign him, that's the best case scenario (well best case would be to trade him, but then also sign him). If that happens I will fully support it. I will also withhold my judgement on the situation until the offseason plays out.

This.

It is hard to say how much of an emphasis Ohtani places on a variety of factors.  Anecdotally, it seems that by far,  his #1 preference is to play for a team who is winning consistently.  Even if we went on a tear, made the playoffs, and got eliminated in the first round - would that be enough to convince Ohtani to stay?  I don't know - I suspect not, given that this team has largely been a non-contender for quite a few years now.  

As much as I'd like to think that Ohtani would stay, I feel that by far the most likely outcome is he signs with the Dodgers, given that they are a west coast team (believed to be a strong preference of his when he first came over) and are a perennial contender.  If the FO believes Ohtani is going to leave, then they really need to go ahead and trade him, because they can likely still get some rather good prospects in return for him, as opposed to letting him leave for just a draft pick.

As others have referenced on here, this likely will need to be looked at through the lens of an entire draft.  This is rather clearly an underslot situation, which means the FO in turn will have more money to spend in later rounds, which means they can "take a shot" on guys later in the draft as well.  

I think Minasian’s strategy has been fairly clear in terms of prioritizing players that will find their way to the majors fairly quickly.  This team needs LHH, especially if this is Ohtani’s last season here.

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

I think we overstate what we have in Moniak in the Syndergaard trade.  Sure we “won” the trade, but Moniak has played well in his role.  We got a strong side platoon guy that will be very batting average and power dependent.  He can’t hit lefties and he strikes out 12-13 times for every time he walks.  His slumps when they happen will be horrible.  

So when we try to look at what we got for Syndergaard, we got a 25 year old, former #1 overall pick that plays good defense and was hitting .129 in his major league career.  

I do think what I like about the Syndergaard / Moniak trade is that I think Minasian has a fairly good eye in terms of finding value.  Moniak will not be a star, but I do think he has improved in the time he's been with our organization and has become a rather useful role player.  A strong side platoon guy is a useful piece.  His BABIP suggests that what we have seen is unsustainable (as well as the poor BB/K ratio that you have referenced), but I do think Minasian has done a good job of finding useful complementary players to help "raise the floor" for our team, so to speak.