Jump to content

70runner

Members
  • Posts

    974
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    70runner got a reaction from Chuck in Gameday Thread (4/27/24): Twins @ Angels: Soriano on the mound, no Sano, Neto hitting 2nd   
    O'Neal is turrible.  He's barely tolerable between periods on Kings broadcasts, but they're smart enough not to use him for PBP. 
  2. Like
    70runner reacted to HeavenlyHalos in Gameday Thread (4/22/24): Orioles @ Angels: Detmers on the mound, Adrianza at 2B, Schanuel leading off   
    lmao at Lakers fans blaming the refs as if they have helped them all freaking season with that crazy FT disparity. Always a good day when Lebron loses. Better day when he retires. 
  3. Like
    70runner got a reaction from ELEVEN in Will you still root for shohei?   
    He's arguably the most talented baseball player on the planet.  He did what hundreds of talented FA's did before him, selected the highest bid.  I wish him well and hope he recovers to pitch again.  I will not root for his team.
  4. Like
    70runner got a reaction from Tank in Will you still root for shohei?   
    He's arguably the most talented baseball player on the planet.  He did what hundreds of talented FA's did before him, selected the highest bid.  I wish him well and hope he recovers to pitch again.  I will not root for his team.
  5. Like
    70runner reacted to Tank in What’s the plan for next season   
    they solved the majority of the o'neal problem by hiring randazzo.
    the sticky part is that randazzo does the friday night games for apple tv. i don't know how much longer his contract with them will continue, but i hope it's over soon. i've appreciated listening to matt vasgersian about a gazillion times more than the little leaguer.
  6. Thank You
    70runner got a reaction from Swordsman78 in Tim Salmon & Chuck Finley to be in-dugout "advisors"   
    Listening to Nevin describe the Salmon/Finley dugout duo doesn't sound at all like he was bypassed by the FO.  Regardless, I realize Nevin would spin this as his invention, but he sounded genuine when talking about his 2 friends.
  7. It's True!
    70runner got a reaction from Halo in Chicago in What’s the plan for next season   
    The only thing worse than watching the Oakland AAAs spank the Angels is listening to O'Neal butcher the PBP.  He's barely tolerable as the intermission guy for the Kings.  For next season, find a competent, full time PBP guy.
  8. Like
    70runner got a reaction from Tank in What’s the plan for next season   
    The only thing worse than watching the Oakland AAAs spank the Angels is listening to O'Neal butcher the PBP.  He's barely tolerable as the intermission guy for the Kings.  For next season, find a competent, full time PBP guy.
  9. THIS!
    70runner got a reaction from Erstad Grit in What’s the plan for next season   
    The only thing worse than watching the Oakland AAAs spank the Angels is listening to O'Neal butcher the PBP.  He's barely tolerable as the intermission guy for the Kings.  For next season, find a competent, full time PBP guy.
  10. Like
    70runner got a reaction from AngeLifer in What’s the plan for next season   
    The only thing worse than watching the Oakland AAAs spank the Angels is listening to O'Neal butcher the PBP.  He's barely tolerable as the intermission guy for the Kings.  For next season, find a competent, full time PBP guy.
  11. Funny
  12. Like
    70runner got a reaction from Jason in Shohei Ohtani tears UCL, won't pitch again this season   
    Truly sad to see Ohtani and Trout go down on same day, but that seems the Angels way.  I'm happy for the nosedive, they weren't making the post season anyway, if it convinces Moreno to sell. 
    Please stop with the players have quit BS.  Angels simply are not a very good team.  They haven't been successful with Ohtani, without him they will battle Oakland and KC for the crummy award. 
  13. Facepalm
    70runner got a reaction from T.G. in Why a winning record matters (this year)   
    For the youngins, here's Sandra on a good day...
     

  14. Like
    70runner reacted to Angels in 2030 in Minasian's Gambit   
    As much as many Angels don't want to think about it, there's a fairly strong argument to be made that the best thing for the organization's success the next 6-10 years is for Ohtani to leave via FA.  In the first 1-3 years, maybe less so.  Although that $50-60M could be put to good use with a good GM.  But after a few years, that contract could be a killer.  He's simply not going to be able to sustain the elite SP / hitting production to support that salary year after year.  Not to mention an injury, which is more likely as he gets older and continues to play both sides. 
    But if you care more about the name brand of Ohtani being an Angel for life and all, then all of those issues do not matter.  The most likely scenario that plays out with this outcomes is you have Trout+ 2.0 -- amazing top shelf HOF as an Angel for life.....without on-field / playoff success.
  15. I Don't Know?
    70runner got a reaction from Angel Oracle in Gameday Thread: Angels vs. Padres (July 4th, 2023) Shohei Ohtani on the mound   
    Perhaps, but wouldn't put this in the breakout column just yet. 
    The previous inning where Ohtani cranked it up to blow away Soto and Tatis, helped by a brain cramp from Kim...wonder if that was the nail breaker?
  16. Funny
  17. Like
    70runner reacted to m0nkey in Rendon with some fire!   
    Whiffed there too
  18. Like
    70runner got a reaction from ten ocho recon scout in Jo Adell, at Driveline   
    Also not a little league hero, but did manage a year as a pine polisher at ASU.  No Driveline of course in those days.  Hitting cage sessions were pretty much jump in there and swing while Winkles and Reggie Jackson watched (it was his last year before being drafted as a junior IIRC).  Jackson was stride manic, his bellowing "YOUR STRIDE IS AFU" could be heard for miles.  He'd jump in the cage, draw a line at "hip double", and explain (in very direct terms) this is your new landing spot.  Winkles would quietly nod.   Agree, Adell looks to be in that stride range.  I'm optimistic he can improve his hitting, the fielding thing is another matter.
  19. Like
    70runner got a reaction from Inside Pitch in Jo Adell, at Driveline   
    Also not a little league hero, but did manage a year as a pine polisher at ASU.  No Driveline of course in those days.  Hitting cage sessions were pretty much jump in there and swing while Winkles and Reggie Jackson watched (it was his last year before being drafted as a junior IIRC).  Jackson was stride manic, his bellowing "YOUR STRIDE IS AFU" could be heard for miles.  He'd jump in the cage, draw a line at "hip double", and explain (in very direct terms) this is your new landing spot.  Winkles would quietly nod.   Agree, Adell looks to be in that stride range.  I'm optimistic he can improve his hitting, the fielding thing is another matter.
  20. Thank You
    70runner got a reaction from Blarg in Jo Adell, at Driveline   
    Also not a little league hero, but did manage a year as a pine polisher at ASU.  No Driveline of course in those days.  Hitting cage sessions were pretty much jump in there and swing while Winkles and Reggie Jackson watched (it was his last year before being drafted as a junior IIRC).  Jackson was stride manic, his bellowing "YOUR STRIDE IS AFU" could be heard for miles.  He'd jump in the cage, draw a line at "hip double", and explain (in very direct terms) this is your new landing spot.  Winkles would quietly nod.   Agree, Adell looks to be in that stride range.  I'm optimistic he can improve his hitting, the fielding thing is another matter.
  21. Like
    70runner got a reaction from Chuck in Los Angeles Angels 2023 Primer (maybe too early, but here's v1)   
    Concur, would love to see them grab Kim from the Padres. 
  22. Like
    70runner reacted to Angelsjunky in Los Angeles Angels 2023 Primer (maybe too early, but here's v1)   
    By Jonathan Northrop, AngelsWin.com Senior Writer
    Introduction: It Can't Be Worse
    While we just tipped over into the second half of January, which means we're still several weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting (February 14) and two and a half months from Opening Day (March 30), it is still the new year, and it seems that the Angels are--barring a surprise move--mostly done in assembling their 2023 team.
    How does the team look? What can we expect and reasonably hope for? One thing this post will not be is a Debby Downer rant about worst-case scenarios and the poor moves of past and present management. I will try to be as objective as possible, but err towards the side of how good the team can reasonably be, if more things go right than wrong.
    Injuries happen. Players have bad years. But players also have good years, and it is unusual that a team suffers the almost uncanny combination of bad luck and injury that the 2022 team experienced, essentialized in their 14-game losing streak. Chances are, no matter how bad it gets in 2023, it won't get that bad. And GM Perry Minasian has put a lot of work--and fair amount of money--into preventing a repeat of that debacle.
     
    1. The Angels vs. the World Champions
    What has Minasian done this offseason? Well, he's lifted the floor on the team substantially. The Angels poor performance in 2022 can be visually expressed like so:


    Now it might not be fair to compare the Angels to the World Champions, but on the other hand, if you're trying to build a contender, one important tactic is to look at successful teams and, most importantly, how they succeeded and, if possible, trying to emulate that. 
    What are you looking at? The two charts compare the Angels and Astros, first in hitting as represented through wRC+, secondly in pitching as represented by FIP. The striking difference between the two teams in both charts is perhaps best characterized not by the best players, but by the worst - namely, the number of poor performers on the Angels, and the visual "real estate" they take up on the charts.
    Perhaps the most glaring problem the Angels had is the huge number of plate appearances given to bad hitters: Their first four hitters by plate appearance were all plus performers, but the next seven were negative; and after the first four, only one out of the next seventeen was average or above.
    Compare that to the Astros: six out of their first seven were average or above, and seven out of their first ten. The mass of below average performers on the ride side of the first graph make up a fraction of the Angels' comparable section.
    We see a similar phenomena with the pitchers, although in some ways it is even more striking in that the Astros only had two pitchers with below average FIP that were given substantial playing time, and one of them--Jose Urquidy--still managed about a league average ERA of 3.94.
    Meaning, the Astros weren't sending (almost) any poor pitchers to the mound, while the Angels were shuffling through a bunch of them.
    If you're the GM of a baseball team, you look at ways to improve controllable outcomes, of which injuries are (for the most part) not. Meaning, Minasian has very little say in whether or not Anthony Rendon gets hurt or how Mike Trout ages, or even whether Taylor Ward decides to crash into a wall. But what he does have some control over, is how the roster is configured.
    So Minasian's big task this offseason was to turn as much of the "purple" into "green." There are specific needs to be addressed, but in its most simply--yet still comprehensive form--that's what was required.
    The big question, of course, is how successful was he? In mid January, we cannot know. We might now come May, but even then it might not be until about mid-season that we have a sense of whether the "Minasian Plan" (Or Minasian Gambit?) worked. What did he do?
    2. Minasian's Moves
    First, let's talk about what he did not do: He didn't sign any big free agents or make any huge trades. Everything he did was minor to moderate, in terms of resources. The total result was the equivalent of signing a big free agent and some scraps, but no single move did any of the following:
    Give a player $20M+ per year* Sign a player for more than three years Give up any top 10 (or even top 20) prospects I asterisked the first, because he did give Ohtani a one-year deal worth $30M. Ohtani was due for a big arbitration pay day that would probably have earned him a bit less, but we can consider this as a bit of a good-will deed. 
    What did Minasian do? Well, here's a list:
    Signed Shohei Ohtani for 1/$30M Signed SP Tyler Anderson for 3/$39M Traded Janson Junk, Elvis Peguero, and Adam Seminaris to the Brewers for OF Hunter Renfroe Signed IF Brandon Drury for 2/$17M Traded Alejandro Hidalgo to the Twins for IF Gio Urshela Signed RP Carlos Estevez for 2/$13.5M Signed OF Brett Phillips for 1/$1.2M Plus a bunch of minor league acquisitions As you can see, other than Ohtani, there is not a true star in sight. What the above list includes are a handful of quality, major league regulars and solid bench/platoon players.
    The Angels Opening Day 26-man payroll is estimated at $188M, $7M higher than last year; similarly, the CB Tax 40-man payroll is $207M, $8M higher than 2022.
    3. 2022 vs. 2023: What Will Be Different?
    A lot remains the same, but some significant factors have changed. Essentially what has happened is:
    The Angels have swapped out Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell (608 PA, 0.7 WAR) for Hunter Renfroe (522 PA, 2.5 WAR) Swapped Andrew Velazquez, Matt Duffy, Tyler Wade, Jack Mayfield, Michael Stefanic, Jose Rojas, Jonathan Villar, Phil Gosselin and David MacKinnon (1099 PA, -3.3 WAR) for Gio Urshela and Brandon Drury (1119 PA, 5.4 WAR) Tyler Anderson (178.2 IP, 4.0 WAR in 2022) has replaced Noah Syndergaard/Michael Lorenzen (177.2 IP, 2.2 WAR). Carlos Estevez (57 IP, 0.4 WAR) is replacing a variety of pitchers, including half a year of Raisel Iglesias (35.2 IP, 0.7 WAR) Replaced Magneuris Sierra, Juan Lagares, and Mickey Moniak (220 PA, -0.9 WAR) with Brett Phillips (225 PA, 0.1 WAR) OK, before you protest, note that I am not saying that we can simply take last year's numbers and switch them out like that. But I am saying that this is essentially what is happening in terms of playing time, without even looking at injuries; I included some stats to give. For instance, we don't know how much players like Rendon, Trout, Ward, and Fletcher will play in 2023, or at what level. Catcher is also a big question mark: which version of Max Stassi will show up, and who will share catching duties with him?
    But....if you do swap out those players, you get a +12.8 WAR swing, about two-thirds of which (+8.7 WAR) is coming from the infield. 
    What does a +12.8 WAR swing look like for the Angels? Well, if we just take the raw numbers, that adds about 13 wins and the Angels go from 73-89 to 86-76.
    Again, it isn't so simple as that - and things always turn out differently than planned. But that is still the basic idea behind these moves: replace sub-par performance with--at least--solid, league average performance.
    Minasian's moves this offseason could pay huge dividends, especially in the infield, where the Angels gave about two full season's worth of playing time to -3.3 WAR performance, most of which was due to poor hitting. Even if the Angels can replace that -3.3 WAR with slightly above replacement level play, they add four or more wins.
    4. Two (or Three) Factors for Success in 2023
    The Angels 2023 season is mostly banking on two factors:
    One, the above mentioned changes work out mostly as hoped. They don't have to work out completely, but just for the most part. 
    Two, better health - and not just Trout and Rendon, but Fletcher, Ward, Canning, Rodriguez, etc. Last year the Angels got only 166 games from their two highest paid players, Trout and Rendon. In 2021, it was 94 games - so if we want to find a silver lining, at least we're trending in the right direction. But they really need more from these two, and while the farm system is on a positive trajectory, there simply isn't the offensive talent waiting in the wings to make up the difference.
    I would add a third that is less necessary but could swing the team significantly:
    Three, positive minor league developments, namely players graduating and performing in the majors. This could include better health and performance from guys like Canning and Rodriguez, a breakout performance from Logan O'Hoppe, some of the plethora of pitching prospects in the high minors graduating and performing well. Meaning, something, someone...anything!
    Summing Up
    The Angels team has a lot of talent. While it may be unlikely given recent track records, there's a scenario in which the very similar Renfroe (124 wRC+, 29 HR) and Drury (123 wRC+, 28 HR) aren't, even repeating last year's performances, among the top four or five hitters on the team. It requires Trout and Rendon to be healthy, Ohtani to stay healthy, and Ward to at least repeat something similar to last year's performance (137 wRC+). Add in a potential bounce back from Jared Walsh, and the Angels could have a lineup that features seven players hitting 20+ HR, with 120 wRC+ or better...and that isn't even considering continued improvement from Luis Rengifo (103 wRC+, 17 HR), a bounce-back from Stassi or breakout from O'Hoppe.
    The rotation looks, at the very least, quite solid, with the potential to be very good. There are a wide range of outcomes for the bullpen, so it bears watching. But the Angels have a lot of minor league arms to draw from, as well as (hopefully) a healthy Chris Rodriguez and Griffin Canning.
    There are no certainties in major league baseball (or life), but we can at least look at the Angels and say that this team has a chance to be very good - and maybe even better. But the risk is there; they're as likely to win 80 games as they are 90 but, I would say, more likely to win 95 than 75. The talent is there.
  23. Like
  24. Like
    70runner got a reaction from PattyD22 in Official 2022 MLB Postseason Gameday Thread   
    Managed to attend the game last night, courtesy of brothers corporate connection.  Epic 7th inning, followed by heavy downpour in San Diego, some sort of biblical prophecy?  Finished off with Hader ripping through 3 dogs.  Dogs dugout after 7th inning was full of ... damn we're going home to play golf.  Petco celebration went on well into Sunday.
  25. Like
    70runner got a reaction from m0nkey in Official 2022 MLB Postseason Gameday Thread   
    Managed to attend the game last night, courtesy of brothers corporate connection.  Epic 7th inning, followed by heavy downpour in San Diego, some sort of biblical prophecy?  Finished off with Hader ripping through 3 dogs.  Dogs dugout after 7th inning was full of ... damn we're going home to play golf.  Petco celebration went on well into Sunday.
×
×
  • Create New...