Hubs

Call me old school, but I like the speediest, best base stiller at the leadoff, and a high-onbase left-handed hitter on deck.

Freeman is entering his first year of arbitration. His contract basically paid him for last season's performance when he finished fifth in the NL MVP voting. His first two years weren't nearly as good.
 
I bring this up only to show all the Trout extension people what the Braves paid for a young player to acquire 5 free agent years and all three arbitration years.
 
The article I read says that even if you assume that he would've taken home $30 M for the three arbitration years, which is a high estimate, they paid an AAV of $21 M for his five free agent years. Is Freeman a $21M a year player? Maybe by the first free agent year, but they are certainly gambling on potential here. 
 
It's not as bad as the Andrus contract, that was a gigantic waste of money for a guy who doesn't even hit well. Andrus is the superior fielder to Aybar, but Aybar has hit better, and considering that they guaranteed $90M more to him over what 8 years? 
 
But back to Freeman/Trout. Trout has one more year of club control where they can set his salary. Next offseason, they are going to go for his first year of arbitration. Similar to Freeman, that would be a point where you can extend him for eight years, seeing if he'll sell his first five free agent years to get a little security.
 
Will his contract blow Freeman's out of the water? Surely. Freeman as I said earlier didn't perform to the level of year three in years one and two. Arbitration hearings take into account the two previous years, not just the year prior. The Braves I think filed in the mid $4M range and he countered with just over $6M.
 
Now Trout is sure to file for $12M+ to set the record for a first year arbitration case. Maybe as high as $15M. Now the Angels are likely to counter around $10M. Trout's 2nd year was better than his first and if his third year is better than his second, he'll have cause for that kind of dough.
 
Even if you assume that Trout will set records in all three free agent years and then be on par with Kershaw for his free agent seasons, that contract looks like maybe as high as $60M in arbitration and then $30M annually? 8/210? Maybe a discount to 8/200?
 
I'd say the Angels have the leverage here, as they don't have to extend him, so they can try to get some sort of discount if they try next offseason to extend him. I don't think they'll sign him to a $300 M contract, unless they don't extend him until his final year, before free agency, but still, this Freeman contract shows how much teams are willing to reward success at a young age.
 
Buster Posey currently came in higher and there is one other player that got more guaranteed money after year three in the majors, but I can't recall. 
 
 
 
 
 

The Angels rotation is definitely a little tentative with the starters currently slated for the rotation. Could they have used Garza or Tanaka or even Dan Haren? Sure. Would they benefit from a guy like Arroyo or Hammel? Sure. 
 
Yet the real help to this team is offense. 
 
Over the past four seasons, from 2010-2013, the Angels have scored 681, 667, 767, 733 runs.
 
Compare that to the four year stretch before that from 2006-2009: 766, 822, 765, 883 runs.
 
While offense as a whole is less than in previous seasons, and the Angels did score more runs than some playoff teams, it should be noted that the Red Sox scored 853 runs last year and the Cardinals were third with 783. (Tigers were second).
 
Even with a good pitching staff, it's important to score runs. The Angels need to have consistency in their run production. With a lineup that features probably the best player in the game, in addition to two former MVP's, offense should come easy...
 
But too often last year it didn't.
 
We had some great games offensively, and some terrible ones. Never quite got on a hot streak the way the Dodgers, Red Sox and Cardinals all did.
 
It's even more important for the Angels to produce offensively than those other teams because those other teams have better rotations and bullpens. 
 
I think this group of Angels can lead the league in runs scored this year. And if they do, rotation shortcomings won't matter as much. 
 
Even a repeat of last years relatively ineffective rotation would be fine if they scored 820+ runs. 
 
Yet, again, scoring 850-870 runs while allowing 700 is going to get them into the playoffs. I'd like to see the rotation allow 450, the pen allow 180, and the offense score 800+, but that's a lofty goal.
 
Still, David Freese, Raul Ibanez, and Kole Calhoun (Plus Pujols being back) is going to significantly increase the offense from a year ago. Yes JB Shuck had an okay season, but he shouldn't have played as much as he did. Peter Bourjos is a better offensive player and I think Calhoun is better than that. Calhoun over Shuck is a huge upgrade. Hopefully Ibanez gives them the same as Trumbo did last year in a poor year, and perhaps Grant Green gets some of that playing time as a right handed DH option. Together, they should outproduce Trumbo. And Freese should significantly improve over the revolving door at 3rd. 
 
So maybe I'm being optimistic, but if they stay relatively injury free, this group can produce some pretty great numbers offensively. And if they do that, the rotation is not going to be as much of an issue.
 

Let's not confuse the facts here everyone. Trout does not need to be extended this offseason. He is the Angels property for four more seasons. 
 
Trout can be paid the league minimum, it's the way the collective bargaining agreement is written. I think they should give him more, but not substantially more, as that sets a bad precedent.
 
They paid Frankie I think 150k more than the minimum in his 3rd year. They paid Anderson and Salmon both 2-3 times the minimum in their third years, but that could've been on extensions. They paid Weaver less than 100k more than the minimum in their third year. Same thing for Kendrick and Aybar.
 
Look for them to renew Trout at 600-630k. That's it. Next year, he'll set an arbitration record of perhaps 12 million. That's it. After that, he could go up to 18. And after that, he could get 20+. 
 
If they wanted to they could sign him to a three year extension, which would give him some money now, and afford the Angels some savings in years 2 & 3. They won't sign him to a massive extension this offseason.
 
Say, three years, 27 Million. AAV of 9. Which would leave them under the CBT by only 10M or so. Which means they'd exceed the CBT if they sign Tanaka.

I did the very complex AAV CBT math, and basically the Angels can afford to sign Tanaka for up to a $20 M AAV and be in just under the luxury tax. This assumes a roster with 10 league minimum guys. If they pay some of these guys more (Trout, Conger, Richards) then perhaps they'd have to cut Salas or Jepsen and replace them with someone making the league minimum.
 
Now, this assumes that Freese, Frieri, Jepsen, and Salas get the exact salary projected by MLB Trade Rumors. I assumed they cut Blanton but are still on the hook for his entire salary. 
 
It assumes no player who has incentives earns them. This is unlikely. Yet, no player has any big dollar incentives that would be earned against this year's CBT except Raul Ibanez. The total of all of the other players bonus would equal what Raul can earn which is 2.25 M. 
 
Now, they can trade a player midseason, and make up some bonus money, like Iannetta, if they really don't want to go over the tax.
 
As for Trout's extension, it's not necessary for four more years, and even if he sets records in Arbitration, they'd still not likely go over the CBT in any other year, except possibly 2015. But I doubt that, as they'd be about $7.5 million short of the CBT in 2015 if they do not sign any free agents, and kept Burnett but not Salas or Jepsen. If they kept all of those guys, they'd still not likely exceed it.
 
Consider that for the next two years you'd be set in the pen (as it's the only place the Angels do have minor league depth), the rotation (Weaver, Wilson, Tanaka, RIchards, Skaggs), the outfield (Trout, Hamilton, Calhoun) and Infield (Pujols, Kendrick, Aybar, Freese), and Catcher (Conger/Ianetta), and at DH (Ibanez /Cron/Green)…where do you need to spend money?
 
In 2016, Kendrick, Iannetta, Burnett, and Freese are free agents and most can be replaced by current minor leaguers in LIndsey, Maronde, and Cowart… the only spot the Angels will need to look at is Catcher and maybe DH.
 
In 2017, they'd have more issues with Weaver, Wilson, Frieri, Aybar and Smith being free agents but Stamets or Rondon could be ready to fill in for Aybar, plus they have pitching depth to replace Frieri and Smith… they'd need to look at the rotation, which by that point they could resign one of their two starters (Weaver) and still be well under the cap to add another starter, or anywhere else they wanted to add someone new.
 
In 2018, Trout and Hamilton will be FA, as well as Conger and Richards, but they should have the money to resign all of them if they wanted to, though I'd think Hamilton will be gone. Even with Trout getting $30 Million per season, Tanaka getting $20, and Pujols getting $24 they'd still have more than 90M in room depending on the CBT number. 
 
Tanaka is affordable, because they have young players in the majors now, making next to nothing. It might be a squeeze for 2014, but 2015 and all future years look good if they can draft well, and players in their system at least turn out to be regulars or bench depth. 

Trouts not getting a raise this year if they sign a pitcher. He doesn't need to. The Angels own his rights for four more seasons. I'd advocate a two year extension for cap purposes, but that's unlikely to happen.

There are a lot of unknowns in signing any player. Especially from Japan. But is he really worth what he will cost?
 
Answer: Yes.
 
While Tanaka's stuff isn't quite as good as fellow countrymen Yu Darvish or Dice-K, he has similar stuff. There are reservations about his ability to pitch from the stretch, and reservations about his somewhat flat, hittable fastball. 
 
What should calm those fears is his impeccable control, which should definitely translate. His secondary pitch and tertiary pitch are legitimate major league out pitches, something that Dice-K struggled with. He doesn't have a long delivery like Dice-K, and he doesn't throw as many pitches as Darvish, allowing him to pitch deep into games. He's like Dan Haren in that respect, and should throw into the seventh or eighth or ninth inning in every start. Can't say that about Matt Garza.
 
Also, while he throws four different pitches and experiments with a few others, his main two weapons are fastball-splitter. I am referencing an article from bleacher report on this, but he quoted a lot of sources that seem legit. 
 
So if he is a fastball-splitter type, he has more in common with Hisanori Iwakuma and Koji Uhera than the other two Japanese pitchers. I'm sure that there are American starters to which he has a lot of similar traits, it's often the case that we compare Japanese to Japanese, and that's not right, but in this case it's valid.
 
The conclusion drawn in the bleacher report article is that his splitter will be an absolute nightmare on lefty hitters, just as Iwakuma and Uhera have been. Mark Saxon said in an LA Times Article that Tanaka has the best splitter in the world, and while that may be an exaggeration, if it's true, he's worth every penny. 
 
We all saw the domination of Koji Uehera this year with the Red Sox once he started throwing that splitter for strikes. He also thrived in the closer role. 
 
Looking over the AL West, who are the best hitters?
 
Obviously Trout, Pujols, Hamilton on the Angels come to mind. The A's have Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss to go along with Cespedes and Jed Lowrie. The Rangers have new acquisition Prince Fielder to go with Adrian Beltre and may sign Shin-Soo Choo. The Mariners signed Cano, traded for Logan Morrison, signed Cory Hart and have Kyle Seager. The Astros have Castro, Carter, etc.
 
Most of those guys are left handed.
 
Also, did I mention he has a plus change-up?
 
The Angels need to sign a pitcher to take pressure off Santiago and Skaggs (as well as Richards) but a journeyman/#3/#4 starter is not the way to go. They don't have the assets to trade for David Price, who is a comparable pitcher to Tanaka if he translates well.
 
And to those who worry about his inning count, that's the nature of Japanese baseball. They also throw a ton of pitches between starts, though they don't make as many starts as their MLB brethren. 
 
Wouldn't you rather have a player who pitches into the 8th inning every start than barely giving you seven? With three young starters on the staff, the pen is going to get work but with a workhorse 25 year old slotting in at the #3 spot? I'm fine with that. And it's why the Angels should go full bore after the Japanese ace. 
 
 
 
 
 
 

There are a lot of unknowns in signing any player. Especially from Japan. But is he really worth what he will cost?
 
Answer: Yes.
 
While Tanaka's stuff isn't quite as good as fellow countrymen Yu Darvish or Dice-K, he has similar stuff. There are reservations about his ability to pitch from the stretch, and reservations about his somewhat flat, hittable fastball. 
 
What should calm those fears is his impeccable control, which should definitely translate. His secondary pitch and tertiary pitch are legitimate major league out pitches, something that Dice-K struggled with. He doesn't have a long delivery like Dice-K, and he doesn't throw as many pitches as Darvish, allowing him to pitch deep into games. He's like Dan Haren in that respect, and should throw into the seventh or eighth or ninth inning in every start. Can't say that about Matt Garza.
 
Also, while he throws four different pitches and experiments with a few others, his main two weapons are fastball-splitter. I am referencing an article from bleacher report on this, but he quoted a lot of sources that seem legit. 
 
So if he is a fastball-splitter type, he has more in common with Hisanori Iwakuma and Koji Uhera than the other two Japanese pitchers. I'm sure that there are American starters to which he has a lot of similar traits, it's often the case that we compare Japanese to Japanese, and that's not right, but in this case it's valid.
 
The conclusion drawn in the bleacher report article is that his splitter will be an absolute nightmare on lefty hitters, just as Iwakuma and Uhera have been. Mark Saxon said in an LA Times Article that Tanaka has the best splitter in the world, and while that may be an exaggeration, if it's true, he's worth every penny. 
 
We all saw the domination of Koji Uehera this year with the Red Sox once he started throwing that splitter for strikes. He also thrived in the closer role. 
 
Looking over the AL West, who are the best hitters?
 
Obviously Trout, Pujols, Hamilton on the Angels come to mind. The A's have Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss to go along with Cespedes and Jed Lowrie. The Rangers have new acquisition Prince Fielder to go with Adrian Beltre and may sign Shin-Soo Choo. The Mariners signed Cano, traded for Logan Morrison, signed Cory Hart and have Kyle Seager. The Astros have Castro, Carter, etc.
 
Most of those guys are left handed.
 
Also, did I mention he has a plus change-up?
 
The Angels need to sign a pitcher to take pressure off Santiago and Skaggs (as well as Richards) but a journeyman/#3/#4 starter is not the way to go. They don't have the assets to trade for David Price, who is a comparable pitcher to Tanaka if he translates well.
 
And to those who worry about his inning count, that's the nature of Japanese baseball. They also throw a ton of pitches between starts, though they don't make as many starts as their MLB brethren. 
 
Wouldn't you rather have a player who pitches into the 8th inning every start than barely giving you seven? With three young starters on the staff, the pen is going to get work but with a workhorse 25 year old slotting in at the #3 spot? I'm fine with that. And it's why the Angels should go full bore after the Japanese ace. 
 
 
 
 
 
 

There are a lot of unknowns in signing any player. Especially from Japan. But is he really worth what he will cost?
 
Answer: Yes.
 
While Tanaka's stuff isn't quite as good as fellow countrymen Yu Darvish or Dice-K, he has similar stuff. There are reservations about his ability to pitch from the stretch, and reservations about his somewhat flat, hittable fastball. 
 
What should calm those fears is his impeccable control, which should definitely translate. His secondary pitch and tertiary pitch are legitimate major league out pitches, something that Dice-K struggled with. He doesn't have a long delivery like Dice-K, and he doesn't throw as many pitches as Darvish, allowing him to pitch deep into games. He's like Dan Haren in that respect, and should throw into the seventh or eighth or ninth inning in every start. Can't say that about Matt Garza.
 
Also, while he throws four different pitches and experiments with a few others, his main two weapons are fastball-splitter. I am referencing an article from bleacher report on this, but he quoted a lot of sources that seem legit. 
 
So if he is a fastball-splitter type, he has more in common with Hisanori Iwakuma and Koji Uhera than the other two Japanese pitchers. I'm sure that there are American starters to which he has a lot of similar traits, it's often the case that we compare Japanese to Japanese, and that's not right, but in this case it's valid.
 
The conclusion drawn in the bleacher report article is that his splitter will be an absolute nightmare on lefty hitters, just as Iwakuma and Uhera have been. Mark Saxon said in an LA Times Article that Tanaka has the best splitter in the world, and while that may be an exaggeration, if it's true, he's worth every penny. 
 
We all saw the domination of Koji Uehera this year with the Red Sox once he started throwing that splitter for strikes. He also thrived in the closer role. 
 
Looking over the AL West, who are the best hitters?
 
Obviously Trout, Pujols, Hamilton on the Angels come to mind. The A's have Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss to go along with Cespedes and Jed Lowrie. The Rangers have new acquisition Prince Fielder to go with Adrian Beltre and may sign Shin-Soo Choo. The Mariners signed Cano, traded for Logan Morrison, signed Cory Hart and have Kyle Seager. The Astros have Castro, Carter, etc.
 
Most of those guys are left handed.
 
Also, did I mention he has a plus change-up?
 
The Angels need to sign a pitcher to take pressure off Santiago and Skaggs (as well as Richards) but a journeyman/#3/#4 starter is not the way to go. They don't have the assets to trade for David Price, who is a comparable pitcher to Tanaka if he translates well.
 
And to those who worry about his inning count, that's the nature of Japanese baseball. They also throw a ton of pitches between starts, though they don't make as many starts as their MLB brethren. 
 
Wouldn't you rather have a player who pitches into the 8th inning every start than barely giving you seven? With three young starters on the staff, the pen is going to get work but with a workhorse 25 year old slotting in at the #3 spot? I'm fine with that. And it's why the Angels should go full bore after the Japanese ace. 
 
 
 
 
 
 

As long as they stay under 20M AAV, they can get him and not go over the Tax. I think they have around $22-23M in AAV Payroll room. I personally think he'll get right around that number. 6@ 19AAV = 114 and adding the $20M that's the most he'll get. I can see the total investment being 20M more than the overall investments for Darvish and Matsuzaka, but not significantly more.
 
 

If you think about it, Darvish cost $112 Million over 6 years. Matsuzaka cost $103 Million over six years. Tanaka is rumored to cost between 125 and 150, but that includes the posting fee, which is now much lower. The overall cost is not going to go down that much, but more is going to the player.
 
I can see 6/96 +20 = 116 at the low end to 6/120+20 = 140 at the high end. Any more money than that will mean a 7 or 8 year deal.
 
Japanese marketing, revenue, and increased ticket sales makes this a better deal than signing Garza.
 
I'd also be interested in Maeta, the #2 starter in Japan last year who could get posted as well. The Hiroshima Carp would happily get $20 M for Maeta. The issue with Tanaka is that Ratuken was basically counting on a $50M posting fee, and they're ticked they're not going to get that. It was excessive anyway and depressed the salaries of the starters.
 
Darvish's AAV contract for CBT purposes are $10M. Actually his cost is $19 M. That's a huge benefit for CBT Tax conscious teams. That's what needed to be phased out. 
 
Tanaka or Maeta would be a huge boon to the Angels rotation and will increase their oversees revenue significantly. They both are better bets than paying Matt Garza $15-16 Million per season.

If you think about it, Darvish cost $112 Million over 6 years. Matsuzaka cost $103 Million over six years. Tanaka is rumored to cost between 125 and 150, but that includes the posting fee, which is now much lower. The overall cost is not going to go down that much, but more is going to the player.
 
I can see 6/96 +20 = 116 at the low end to 6/120+20 = 140 at the high end. Any more money than that will mean a 7 or 8 year deal.
 
Japanese marketing, revenue, and increased ticket sales makes this a better deal than signing Garza.
 
I'd also be interested in Maeta, the #2 starter in Japan last year who could get posted as well. The Hiroshima Carp would happily get $20 M for Maeta. The issue with Tanaka is that Ratuken was basically counting on a $50M posting fee, and they're ticked they're not going to get that. It was excessive anyway and depressed the salaries of the starters.
 
Darvish's AAV contract for CBT purposes are $10M. Actually his cost is $19 M. That's a huge benefit for CBT Tax conscious teams. That's what needed to be phased out. 
 
Tanaka or Maeta would be a huge boon to the Angels rotation and will increase their oversees revenue significantly. They both are better bets than paying Matt Garza $15-16 Million per season.

If you think about it, Darvish cost $112 Million over 6 years. Matsuzaka cost $103 Million over six years. Tanaka is rumored to cost between 125 and 150, but that includes the posting fee, which is now much lower. The overall cost is not going to go down that much, but more is going to the player.
 
I can see 6/96 +20 = 116 at the low end to 6/120+20 = 140 at the high end. Any more money than that will mean a 7 or 8 year deal.
 
Japanese marketing, revenue, and increased ticket sales makes this a better deal than signing Garza.
 
I'd also be interested in Maeta, the #2 starter in Japan last year who could get posted as well. The Hiroshima Carp would happily get $20 M for Maeta. The issue with Tanaka is that Ratuken was basically counting on a $50M posting fee, and they're ticked they're not going to get that. It was excessive anyway and depressed the salaries of the starters.
 
Darvish's AAV contract for CBT purposes are $10M. Actually his cost is $19 M. That's a huge benefit for CBT Tax conscious teams. That's what needed to be phased out. 
 
Tanaka or Maeta would be a huge boon to the Angels rotation and will increase their oversees revenue significantly. They both are better bets than paying Matt Garza $15-16 Million per season.

Aybar must not bat at the top of the order. Dude makes WAY too many outs.

No to Garza. Not for the length of contract and the dollars he'd command.

With both Bourjos and Trumbo gone it seems like a good idea to come up with a 4th OF/DH who can hit right handed.

Trout (Deserves the most at bats, best base runner, best OBP)
Calhoun (So Trout can f*cking run)
Pujols (Because he won't ever leave this spot)
Hamilton
Freese
Kendrick
Conger
Green
Aybar

Guys if anybody asks Scotty was the first to break this news.

trumbo is nothing like garret anderson, hubs.

Everyone stop being negative. You like the trade, you don't, fine, but stop being whiners and know-it-alls. 

Everyone stop being negative. You like the trade, you don't, fine, but stop being whiners and know-it-alls. 

Chris Cotillo has broken several stories this offseason so he does have credibility...
 
But he is still a high schooler who is at the winter meetings on his family vacation. 
 
I'd be more inclined to trust Bob Nightengale's sources at this point. 

Agreed. Got to give to get.
I'd bet on Kohn or Jepsen being the secondary piece to the DBacks if its a Major Leaguer. Minor league not a guy slated for AA or AAA it's got to be someone on the lower levels with upside like Rondon or that level.

Yes Jim but I think it wouldn't be Garza. I'd bet on a high risk high reward type to compete with Skaggs for that spot, plus that's also a spot where you can slot Tanaka if they go that route.

Cahill had a season in the AL with a sub 3 ERA. Skaggs was the prize of the Dan Haren deal.
Good package. Id still want the Angels to sign a guy that could compete with Skaggs for the fifth spot, a veteran trying to make a comeback like Johan Santana.