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Tanaka is a perfect fit for Moreno


redoctober

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This is going to be short and sweet.

 

Moreno is a business man. The signings of Pujols, Wilson, and Hamilton were important for getting attention (Hamilton specifically took airtime away from the Dodgers) and keeping the Angels interesting with star power while the farm system gets rebuilt.

 

Tanaka, if posted, is the only player that has that same potential by drawing in fans and media (the Ichiro effect) alike to increase revenue.

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Dave Cameron of Fangraphs thinks he'll cost $125-150 million - not sure how many years. So let's say $125 million, 6 years. Then you have to add the $20 million posting feel - so that still ends up being about $150 million all tolled. I'm not sure Arte wants Tanaka for what would effectively be a $25 million per year contract. It would be the third huge contract in a row, and the potential for a third bust. Too risky.

 

Garza for 5/$75MM is more likely, imo.

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Dave Cameron of Fangraphs thinks he'll cost $125-150 million - not sure how many years. So let's say $125 million, 6 years. Then you have to add the $20 million posting feel - so that still ends up being about $150 million all tolled. I'm not sure Arte wants Tanaka for what would effectively be a $25 million per year contract. It would be the third huge contract in a row, and the potential for a third bust. Too risky.

 

Garza for 5/$75MM is more likely, imo.

 

My argument though, is that the ROI on Tanaka is far higher than Garza. Sure, the cost may be $75m more, but the stadium will be filled when Tanaka pitches and it could open up more advertising and marketing deals with the Japanese community here and abroad.

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Dave Cameron of Fangraphs thinks he'll cost $125-150 million - not sure how many years. So let's say $125 million, 6 years. Then you have to add the $20 million posting feel - so that still ends up being about $150 million all tolled. I'm not sure Arte wants Tanaka for what would effectively be a $25 million per year contract. It would be the third huge contract in a row, and the potential for a third bust. Too risky.

 

Garza for 5/$75MM is more likely, imo.

I'm thinking those two pitchers are going to be a bit closer than that. 

 

I think Tanaka will get about 6/100 plus the 20mil posting and Garza is gonna be at about 5/90 so I think the difference is going to be closer to 30-40 mil as opposed to 75mil.   But yeah, it's still a risk.  You kinda know what you are getting in Garza but Tanaka has the potential to be much better and it appears his low end is around what Garza will be the next 5 years. 

 

We have to Remember, with as many question marks as Tanaka has, we aren't going to get the previous Garza.  We are paying for past performance.  This situation is like the Darvish/Wilson one yet on a lesser scale in terms of talent. 

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The problem is, Tanaka could go en route of the Matsuzaka effect.  For the amount of money, especially CBT money, I don't know if the Angels can take that risk.  

 

And if they are willing to take that risk, then I question why we've been pinching so many pennies this offseason.

Tanaka is in a whole other league than Matsuzaka IMO. I see Tanaka as a can't miss guy who may be even better than Darvish. Time will tell though.

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Tanaka is in a whole other league than Matsuzaka IMO. I see Tanaka as a can't miss guy who may be even better than Darvish. Time will tell though.

 

I must wonder on what you base that assessment?

Everything I've read is that while they are similar statistically, though Davish is slightly better across the board even there, says he doesnt have Darvish stuff, lower K rate and a more hittable fastball.

Personally i think he far to great a risk and a lot more likely to be more like Matsuzaka than Darvish, and not worth the money you a re talking about.

I doubt he would be significantly better than Garza who would cost far less and is a known commodity. 

Sure it doesnt have the flair or marketing appeal... but if that doesnt translate to on field performnce it isnt worth it.

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I do think that as a businessman, Arte would certainly have to look at the marketing in Japan as a factor. There is also the fact that the posting fee will not count toward AAV in the luxury tax calculation. So, I could certainly see it happening.

 

Will it? I'm not sure, since the $20 million posting fee brings the posting down to a level that most teams can afford. Then the ball ends up in Tanaka's court.

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If you think about it, Darvish cost $112 Million over 6 years. Matsuzaka cost $103 Million over six years. Tanaka is rumored to cost between 125 and 150, but that includes the posting fee, which is now much lower. The overall cost is not going to go down that much, but more is going to the player.

 

I can see 6/96 +20 = 116 at the low end to 6/120+20 = 140 at the high end. Any more money than that will mean a 7 or 8 year deal.

 

Japanese marketing, revenue, and increased ticket sales makes this a better deal than signing Garza.

 

I'd also be interested in Maeta, the #2 starter in Japan last year who could get posted as well. The Hiroshima Carp would happily get $20 M for Maeta. The issue with Tanaka is that Ratuken was basically counting on a $50M posting fee, and they're ticked they're not going to get that. It was excessive anyway and depressed the salaries of the starters.

 

Darvish's AAV contract for CBT purposes are $10M. Actually his cost is $19 M. That's a huge benefit for CBT Tax conscious teams. That's what needed to be phased out. 

 

Tanaka or Maeta would be a huge boon to the Angels rotation and will increase their oversees revenue significantly. They both are better bets than paying Matt Garza $15-16 Million per season.

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When it comes to Tanaka, you are all missing two important issues:  Yankees & Dodgers

 

If the Angels were to get into a bidding war with the Yankees and Dodgers, the Angels are going to lose.  Also, who knows how high a bidding war between those three teams could get?  If those three teams got in a bidding war, Tanaka will cost a heck of a lot more than anyone has predicted.

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When it comes to Tanaka, you are all missing two important issues:  Yankees & Dodgers

 

If the Angels were to get into a bidding war with the Yankees and Dodgers, the Angels are going to lose.  Also, who knows how high a bidding war between those three teams could get?  If those three teams got in a bidding war, Tanaka will cost a heck of a lot more than anyone has predicted.

I thought the bids were silent. Am I wrong?

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All three of those teams will bid the 20 million maximum.

 

After that, Tanaka basically becomes a free agent and gets to negotiate with all the teams who bid the 20 million fee.  That is where he gets very expensive and where the Yankees and Dodgers will drive up his price.

Edited by Jim B
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I'm not sure how much the Yankees can drive up the price. They have already spent some money this off-season (although they saved by not retaining Cano & Granderson), however they have been stating a desire to remain under the tax threshold if for just this year. The A-Rod situation muddies their picture quite significantly. They have no idea how much salary A-Rod will have to be paid.

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With only a $20m posting fee, I would expect 10+ teams to put their name in the hat. It's not like they will lose the money if Tanaka chooses to sign elsewhere.

Yeah, this was my thought when I first heard the $20 million proposal. Fair, but not necessarily good for the Angels.

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I wouldn't be surprised if all 30 teams put in a posting fee.

 

True. There really is no reason not to.

 

What I don't understand is that MLB and MLBPA objected to the old posting fee because they felt too much money would be taken away from the MLB players market. But by allowing multiple teams join the same bid will only create a bidding war. It's likely that MORE money will be spent this way. The team that gets screwed is the Japanese club posting that player since they get capped at $20m.. Instead of doing the posting fee, they should calculate a percentage of the contract to the Japanese club.

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