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Deek

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    Are you ready for Ohtani to be baseball's first Half a Billion Dollar Man?

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

    Ohtani's 17.5 fWAR over 2021-22 includes both pitching and hitting. As a hitter, he was at 5.0 in 2021, 3.8 in 2022; as a pitcher, he was at 3.0 in 2021 and 5.6 in 2022. So the averages for both years are 4.4 as a hitter, 4.3 as a pitcher...8.7 total.

    Now I think you could argue that you can't simply add his hitting and pitching value like that. On the other hand, it could be argued that there's more downsides to combining both elements than having two separate players. For one, if you have a 4.4 hitter and a 4.3 pitcher, if one gets injured, you only have to replace one. Whereas if Ohtani gets injured, you might have to replace both sides. 

     

    Sorry missed the fWAR reference... but agree with you - with Ohtani as the lone "pilot program", I think fWAR has room for improvement...

     

    wrt downside of combining elements vs. two seperate players... I get where you're going and I don't disagree.... but don't discount the added value of having a whole other roster spot to address another need on your roster....

    Are you ready for Ohtani to be baseball's first Half a Billion Dollar Man?

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    10 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

    With the premier market set by the Judge contract (9 x $40M = $360M), we have a baseline for Ohtani. Judge will be 31 in 2023, so the contract covers age 31-39. Ohtani will be 29 in 2024, so two years younger.

    Judge just had the 18th best position player season in baseball history according to fWAR, and the best since Bonds. It was his second MVP award in his six-year career, with four very good-but-not-great seasons in-between.

    I'm guessing the Yankees don't expect him to repeat his 11.4 WAR performance, but they most definitely expect him to have 8 WAR seasons left in the tank. He was just so good in 2022, that it is hard imagining him falling back to his 5+ WAR level of the previous four years. But it is a rather massive contract for a 31-year old, no matter how good, especially with his injury history (he missed 50-60 games in 2018-19, and 32 games in 2020 - half the short season).

    SO $40M a year, age 31-39. I suppose what Ohtani gets depends somewhat on how he does in 2023, but he's already compiled 17.5 WAR over the last two seasons, setting a very high performance level. Assuming he's healthy and produces at least 7 WAR, I don't see his value dipping all that much. Even if he has a non-longterm injury, he'll still get a massive pay-day.

    So assuming a 7+ WAR season, I'm guessing he'll get at least the same AAV as Judge ($40M) and at least one more year. o, at the very least, 10/$400M. But that's really a baseline -- again, assuming he's mostly healthy - and he could get more.

    If he settles in at the 7-8 WAR level, I think he gets closer to 10/$400M. If he is as good or better than 2022, in the 9-10 WAR range, then closer to 10/$450M or something weird like 11/$462M (11 x $42M). If he combines the best of 2021 and 2022--the hitting of the former and the pitching of the latter, and adds a few starts and even improves a bit, with a 10-11 WAR season--then all best are off and I wouldn't be entirely surprised if he becomes baseball's first half a billion dollar man...10-12 years, $500M or so.

     

    sci-fi running GIF by MANGOTEETH

     

    With all due respect AJ - I guess you have to start with some baseline... but as far as I know, WAR stats don't consider Ohtani's pitching impact...  I think his value baseline starts in absolute terms in both an offensive perspective AND a pitching perspective:

     

    If you compare Ohtani's impact, on the offensive side alone, to his peers (and don't even consider that he's no slouch on defense at 1B/OF) - wouldn't he EASILY slot in as a bargain at $30M/yr...?? (Think about relative value: He's not worth $10M less than Judge/yr or $8M less than Rendon or $2M less than Stanton or Cabrera (both old DHs) per year)...!

     

    Add on top of that his value solely as a pitcher the last two years - and he's a bargain at $30M/yr...!!! (he's not $13M less than Verlander/Scherzer or $6M less than Cole)....!!!

     

    Combine those values and that's a BARGAIN at $60M...!!!

     

    And all of the: "he-can't-do-both-forever"... sure... okay... but he is now... and he's likely to be able to do both for at least half of a 10 year contract given his age - he'll always hit... and if/when he shows some wear and tear as an SP - you can move to the bully as a top-flight reliever (with his make-up - I wouldn't bet against him as a nails closer!)... that kind of flexibility exists - all of nowhere...

     

    Dude has no comp...

    Angels acquire Hunter Renfroe from the Brewers for Janson Junk, Elvis Peguero, and Adam Seminaris

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

    Agreed.  There are just so many benefits of one year acquisitions, and this is one of them.  Adell gets another year to work on his game in AAA, but this move doesn't truly block him.  If Adell can develop and looks good, he can still take over as a starter in 2024.  He does not need to be traded currently.

    Seriously, Adell is two years from being MLB ready…, 

     

    he was so rushed….

     

    Victor Rojas says on Twitter that he's "all for" coming back as the Angels Play-by-Play announcer "if they'll have me"

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    Move heaven and earth to get this done...

     

    Victor is:

    1 - All class

    2 - Very knowledgeable on all facets of the game (field, front office, personnel, etc)

    3 - One of the best (I personnally think he's THE best, but I'll leave a small margin for bias) PBP guys in the biz.  No worse than top 3...

    4 - The chemistry between he and Gubby is fantastic - and amplifies both of their personas!

    5 - He's got real Angel pedigree... When he was here, it felt like he really embraced the organization - he wasn't just punching a clock..

    Angels interested in Kodai Senga

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

    All of this! 

    Now let's spend some prospect capital and money on a corner OF, SS and maybe a platoon partner at 1B for Walsh.

    oooh... Chuck - you just reminded me how sad and painful it was to have to see Walsh in the lineup... man - I really hope he can turn it around next year - I like the dude, but our offense can't have that big of a void at a corner IF position (eh-hem: you hear that Glass Rendon...?!?!?!?!?)...

     

    We've got to improve our lineup first... with consistency as the top priority...

    Angels fire Jeremy Reed and John Mallee

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    21 hours ago, eligrba4ever said:

    The Angels offense in 2022:

    • 1,539 strikeouts (30th out of 30 in MLB)
    • .687 OPS (tied for 22nd)
    • .233 team batting average (24th)
    • 623 runs scored (25th)

    I'm absolutely shocked -- shocked, I tell you -- that the Angels fired two such esteemed batting coaches. Imagine the numbers minus Ohtani, Trout, Ward and Rengifo.

    In fairness however, Marsh was responsible for half of that strikeout total...

    Exploring Contract Swaps for Loup and Tepera

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    10 hours ago, DMVol said:

    Even with a new owner, I’d like to see a more “strategic” (I like that word) approach…..No more Rendons, Hamiltons or Pujols’…..a new owner could spend what Arte did on Rendon on 3/4 guys to fill multiple areas of need….that’s not being cheap, it’s being smart….

    That sure smells like Buzzie Bavasi logic...

     

    "Why would I sign Nolan Ryan when I can get two 8-7 pitchers for a fraction of the cost"...

    Ohtani or Judge as MVP?

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    For me it's not even a close discussion...

    1.04 WHIP, 2.4 ERA, .900 OPS...

     

    Judge is having a great season for a power hitter (albeit on a little league field).  He CAN NOT impact the game in a more meaningful way than Shohei...

     

    There's no argument beyond: "well, we want to mix it up this year and give it to someone else".... or "Shohei has an "unfair" advantage as a pitcher"... or "but the HR record is such a hallowed record we have to acknowledge the feat somehow"...

     

    Judge is not even an elite fielder (which is kind of amazing really when you consider he only has to cover ground about the size of your living room)...

     

    Who is the league's "Most Valuable Player"... uh - Shohei...

    OC Register: Anthony Rendon aims to rejoin Angels’ lineup before season ends

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    Uh... Why does it feel like Glass just ripped off Salt-n-Peppa...?

     

    Rendon said on Monday. “That’s what I was pushing for the whole time. I’m going to push myself, push myself. I’m going to have them push me, push me. And if it works, we’re going to listen to my body. If it doesn’t feel good, we’ll pull it back. We’re just going to push as much as my body will take.”

     

    Are we not working on phrasing anymore...?

    Trash Pandas throw combined no-hitter

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    56 minutes ago, Stradling said:

    Yep, which is why I think the Minasian hate is misguided.  He has been similar to Eppler with his free agent signings. But in two years has created at least the discussion of having pitching depth or a nice future of pitching.

    That'll happen when you draft nothing but pitchers in a single draft...

     

    But I agree with your point: Minasian deserves credit for the recent improvement in our minor league depth through drafts and trades...

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